On Thursday, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) had a disappointing day and dropped deep into the red. The benchmark index fell 1% to 8,819.4 points.

Will the market be able to bounce back from this on Friday and end the week on a high? Here are five things to watch:

ASX 200 expected to tumble

The Australian share market looks set for another poor session on Friday following a weak night of trade in the United States. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open 78 points or 0.9% lower this morning. On Wall Street, the Dow Jones was down 0.6%, the S&P 500 fell 0.6%, and the Nasdaq dropped 0.65%.

Oil prices rocket

ASX 200 energy shares Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) and Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS) could have a strong finish to the week after oil prices jumped again overnight. According to Bloomberg, the WTI crude oil price is up 8.2% to US$103.93 a barrel and the Brent crude oil price is up 7.4% to US$108.70 a barrel. Traders were bidding oil higher after bracing for a prolonged Iran war.

Hold Seek shares

The Seek Ltd (ASX: SEK) share price could be fully valued according to Bell Potter. This morning, the broker has retained its hold rating on the job listings company’s shares with a trimmed price target of $13.80 (from $15.20). It said: “We await a positive shift in sentiment or visibility on jobs volumes recovery; potential near term Growth Fund monetisation remains an asymmetric upside risk, however the rising interest rate backdrop may also be an additional headwind in seeking a desired exit price for nominated assets.”

Gold price drops

ASX 200 gold shares including Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) and Newmont Corporation (ASX: NEM) could have a poor finish to the week after the gold price dropped overnight. According to CNBC, the gold futures price is down 2.3% to US$4,358.5 an ounce. This was driven by the release of US inflation data, which boosted US rate hike bets.

Buy Graincorp shares

The team at Bell Potter sees value in Graincorp Ltd (ASX: GNC) shares at current levels. This morning, the broker has retained its buy rating on the grain exporter’s shares with an improved price target of $7.50 (from $7.15). It said: “Buy rating retained. The recent ABARE crop report was positive lead for FY27e and is yet to filter entirely through consensus expectations. However, the margin backdrop at this point, in terms of both grain basis and oilseed crush margins, remains the strongest it has for three years. To us this is key, as consensus FY27e expectations (which the 2026-27 crop underwrites) looks to be carrying forward the margin environment of FY25-26e, which was materially weaker. Trading at ~5.0x FY27e PBTDA we see the valuation as undemanding.”

The post 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Friday appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• How much superannuation do I need to earn $80,000 per year in passive income?
• Why this broker thinks GrainCorp shares are a buy after yesterday’s fall
• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today
• Is the ASX heading for a stock market crash?
• 9 ASX 200 shares earning strengthened buy ratings this week

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has positions in Woodside Energy Group Ltd. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

A familiar sense of unease is creeping into financial markets, with economists and investors warning that the global economy could be vulnerable to another major financial shock. That doesn’t necessarily mean ASX shares are on the verge of a 2008-style collapse. But the warnings are worth considering.

Nouriel Roubini, who famously predicted the Global Financial Crisis, continues to highlight the risks from excessive debt and government borrowing. Ray Dalio has similarly warned that the world is approaching the later stages of a long-term debt cycle.

Meanwhile, concerns are building around stretched asset valuations, private credit, commercial real estate and the enormous sums being poured into artificial intelligence.

So, is GFC 2.0 coming? Not necessarily.

There is no consensus that another banking crisis is imminent. However, the broader warning is difficult to dismiss: vulnerabilities have accumulated across parts of the financial system, and several could reinforce each other if economic conditions deteriorate.

How should investors prepare?

The answer probably isn’t to sell all your ASX shares and hide in cash.

Timing a financial crisis is notoriously difficult. Investors who abandon the market while waiting for a crash could miss years of gains if the predicted crisis never arrives.

Instead, investors should focus on building resilience.

Watch leverage

Highly indebted businesses can be particularly vulnerable when interest rates remain elevated or economic growth slows.

Companies with strong balance sheets, manageable debt and reliable cash flows may have a better chance of weathering a downturn.

This is particularly important when assessing ASX shares trading on ambitious growth expectations.

Diversification matters

Owning 20 ASX shares doesn’t necessarily create a diversified portfolio.

Investors should consider spreading exposure across companies, sectors and geographies and, where appropriate, different asset classes.

Concentrating too heavily in one expensive investment theme can turn an ordinary correction into a devastating portfolio loss.

Don’t ignore valuations

A great business isn’t automatically a great investment. If a company’s share price already assumes years of near-perfect growth, even a strong business can deliver disappointing returns.

The artificial intelligence boom illustrates the point. AI could ultimately transform the economy, but that doesn’t mean every AI-related ASX share will generate attractive returns from today’s valuations.

Keep some liquidity

Investors should also avoid putting themselves in a position where falling markets force them to sell their ASX shares.

Maintaining an emergency cash buffer and avoiding excessive personal debt can provide valuable flexibility when markets become volatile.

Foolish takeaway

The biggest mistake may be trying to predict whether the next financial crisis arrives in six months, five years or never.

Nobody knows.

What investors can control is how resilient their portfolios are when something unexpected happens.

Rather than betting on whether GFC 2.0 arrives, investors may be better served by preparing their portfolios for volatility while continuing to look for opportunities when fear eventually creates them.

The post GFC 2.0? Could ASX shares be heading for another major crash? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Friday
• How much superannuation do I need to earn $80,000 per year in passive income?
• Corporate Travel Management recently resumed trading – Here’s why it could be a buy
• Why this broker thinks GrainCorp shares are a buy after yesterday’s fall
• This ASX ETF has beaten the market over the last 10 years

Motley Fool contributor Marc Van Dinther has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

When it comes to superannuation it’s a great idea to have a target in mind so you can have some comfort that you’ll be well looked after in retirement.

Starting early brings with it the benefits of compound interest and can make what seems like a large savings task much more achievable.

Savings currently falling short

It’s true that, on average, people’s superannuation savings at age 60 fall well short of being able to generate the $80,000 per year in passive income I am looking at today.

Figures from the Association of Superannuation Funds of Australia show that men aged 60-64 have on average $395,852 in superannuation while women have $313,360.

So, how much would you need in your super to generate $80,000 per year in passive income?

Let’s do the sums.

If you were able to generate a 10% average dividend yield on your investments, which would be a difficult task, you’d need $800,000 in superannuation.

If you were getting just a 5% return, you would need double this, at $1.6 million.

I would argue that with the benefit of franking credits, retirees can aim for a return somewhere in the midpoint. So, to generate $80,000 from a 7.5% return, you would need to have $1.06 million in retirement savings.

Franking credits are crucial to this equation. If you invest in fully franked dividends, you get back all the tax the company has already paid.

This is because retirees are not taxed on their superannuation earnings.

In practical terms, this means a share paying a 5% dividend yield actually pays 7.14% once franking credits are included.

Which shares might help you hit the $ 80,000-per-year goal?

Infrastructure stocks such as APA Group Ltd (ASX: APA) and toll roads operator Atlas Arteria Ltd (ASX: ALX) pay healthy dividends of 5.36% and 8.86%, respectively.

In the resources sector, iron ore miner Fortescue Group Ltd (ASX: FMG) pays 6.07%, Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) pays 3.67%, and Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS) pays 5.04%.

In the financial services sector, Regal Partners Ltd (ASX: RPL) is paying 11.06%, Bank of Queensland Ltd (ASX: BOQ) is paying 6.03%, and Westpac Banking Corporation (ASX: WBC) is paying 4.39%.

How to check your progress

If you’re keen to check how much superannuation you’re likely to have when you retire, it’s worth checking out the federal government’s Moneysmart website, which has an easy to use calculator.

And if you want to top up your superannuation, it’s also worth reading up on concessional contributions, which are contributions you can make to your superannuation each year up to a cap of $32,500, which are only taxed at 15%.

Keep in mind that the $32,500 cap includes any employer contributions and salary sacrifice contributions.

The post How much superannuation do I need to earn $80,000 per year in passive income? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Friday
• 9 ASX 200 shares earning strengthened buy ratings this week
• Iron ore is back below US$100. Are BHP and Rio Tinto shares still buys?
• 2 ASX shares I think could return more than Westpac
• Is the pullback in Westpac shares a buying opportunity?

Motley Fool contributor Cameron England has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Apa Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.