BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) shares fell 3.02% to $62.63 on Thursday as iron ore slipped back below US$100 a tonne.

Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO) dropped 3.45% to $173.15, and Fortescue Ltd (ASX: FMG) lost 2.41% to $17.19.

Overall, mining shares did much of the damage to the index on the day.

The question is whether a sub-US$100 iron ore price will lead to sustained declines for these miners.

Why BHP shares are less exposed than they look

The composition of BHP’s earnings has changed.

Copper now accounts for 54% of group earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation.

Iron ore is still enormous, but it is no longer the majority of the business.

The FY26 result showed what that mix produced.

Underlying EBITDA rose 27% to a record US$32.9 billion and underlying attributable profit climbed 30% to US$13.2 billion.

Net operating cash flow grew 17% to US$21.8 billion.

BHP determined US$8.7 billion of dividends, or 172 US cents per share, on a 66% payout ratio.

Net debt finished at US$8.7 billion, around 0.3 times EBITDA.

Management is guiding to 3% to 4% compound annual growth in copper equivalent volumes through to FY35, with capital expenditure steady near US$11 billion in FY27.

What the miners earn at these prices

Fortescue is the most pure iron ore exposure of the three.

The company’s FY26 revenue grew 9% to US$17.0 billion and underlying EBITDA rose 9% to US$8.6 billion at a 51% margin.

Free cash flow increased 25% to US$3.2 billion and shipments hit a record 201.3 million tonnes.

The company’s Hematite C1 unit cost was US$18.74 per wet metric tonne.

That cost number is one to watch.

At under US$19 a tonne to dig it out, Fortescue still makes very good money with iron ore near US$100.

FY27 guidance does show costs rising to between US$20.50 and US$21.75 a tonne.

What brokers make of BHP shares

Not everyone is convinced after the run.

Gray Perry Wealth Advisers’ Blake Halligan has a hold recommendation on the miner.

BHP remains a high-quality diversified miner with large, low-cost assets and increasing exposure to copper.

His reasoning for holding was equally direct.

Commodity-price sensitivity and project execution risks support retaining BHP rather than increasing exposure.

That caution is understandable given the starting point.

Including dividends, BHP has returned about 62% over the past 12 months and reclaimed its position as the largest company on the ASX.

How the three compare today

The valuations tell three different stories.

BHP trades on a price-to-earnings ratio of 23.3 with a 3.87% fully franked yield after gaining 43% this calendar year.

Rio Tinto sits on 17.2 times earnings with a 3.81% yield and is up 24% year to date.

Fortescue is on 13.6 times with a 6.16% yield, and is down 15% for the year.

Foolish takeaway

Iron ore below US$100 matters most to the company that sells nothing else.

That is Fortescue, and it is also the cheapest of the three by a wide margin.

BHP shares are the highest quality and most expensive, and the copper transition provides valuable diversification benefits.

The post Iron ore is back below US$100. Are BHP and Rio Tinto shares still buys? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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• How much could the Fortescue share price rise in the next year?
• Up 62% in a year are BHP shares now a buy, hold or sell?
• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today

Motley Fool contributor Mark Verhoeven has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended BHP Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL) shares have risen as much as 90% from their June low. At this point, the broker community can’t agree on what is next for CSL shares.

The stock bottomed at $90.00 in June, an eleven-year low.

Shares closed Wednesday at $171.21 before easing to $166.89 on Thursday.

Some of that fall is mechanical, because the shares traded ex-dividend on Wednesday ahead of a $2.28 per share dividend payment on 2 October.

Why CSL shares recovered so quickly

The catalyst was a result that looked terrible but read rather well.

FY26 revenue slipped 1% to US$15.8 billion and the company reported a statutory net loss after tax of US$2.6 billion.

That loss included US$7.1 billion of pre-tax impairments and US$799 million of restructuring costs, most of it non-cash.

Underlying net profit after tax and amortisation fell just 2% to US$3.1 billion.

Investors had been warned.

CSL flagged around US$5 billion of impairments back in May and cut its guidance at the same time.

By August the market was ready to treat the write-downs as history.

Interim chief executive Gordon Naylor was upbeat:

FY26 has been a year of reset. We have taken decisive action and created a clear path to return to sustainable growth. Plasma market fundamentals and demand remain robust and momentum is building behind our newer therapies, such as ANDEMBRY and HEMGENIX.

What FY27 has to deliver

The bull case now rests on guidance.

CSL expects revenue to be steady in FY27 with underlying net profit growing approximately 5%.

Consensus had been closer to 2%, so the guidance was a true upgrade.

Behring is expected to grow revenue at a mid-single-digit rate, led by immunoglobulins.

Seqirus is guided to low single-digit growth as US immunisation rates soften.

Vifor is the problem, with revenue forecast to fall about 25% as iron generics enter the market.

Vifor itself was the source of most of the impairments, and it is now shrinking at a quarter a year.

The bulls argue Behring is large enough to absorb that.

The bears point out it has to do so while the group carries the cost of an unfinished transformation programme.

Where brokers disagree on CSL shares

Of 19 analysts tracked, 10 rate CSL shares a hold while nine have a buy or strong buy.

The average 12-month target is $173.04, barely above the current price.

The spread underneath that average is enormous.

The most bullish target sits at $206.76 and the most bearish at $131.49.

Foolish takeaway

The argument now is about whether a business that has just written off US$7.1 billion can compound at high single digits again.

I lean towards the bulls, largely because plasma demand has not been impacted and CSL’s cost reduction programme is starting to yield results.

What I would not do is assume there is still easy money to be made.

The post CSL shares are up 90%. Brokers can’t agree what happens next appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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• How much superannuation do I need to earn $100 a day in passive income?
• CSL shares are up 90%. How much higher can they go?
• How much passive income can I earn off a $550,000 superannuation balance?
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Wednesday
• Buy, hold, sell: BHP, CSL, CBA shares

Motley Fool contributor Mark Verhoeven has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended CSL. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended CSL. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Payday superannuation has been the reality for a little over two months. The real question is: has it made you better off?

Employers have been required to pay super at the same time as wages since 1 July 2026.

That replaced a quarterly system that had operated for decades.

What payday superannuation changed

Under the old rules, employers paid contributions quarterly, with payment due within 28 days of each quarter’s end.

Money deducted as super could therefore sit with an employer for up to three months before reaching a fund.

Under the new rules, contributions must reach the employee’s fund within seven business days of payday.

The rate stays at 12%, now calculated on qualifying earnings rather than ordinary time earnings, a slightly broader base that includes relevant salary sacrifice amounts.

A first contribution for a new employee has a longer 20 business day window.

There is no grace period after that, and the Australian Taxation Office now assesses the Super Guarantee Charge itself rather than relying on employer self-assessment.

The superannuation benefit is there, but it is small

Two months in, the practical effect for a fortnightly paid worker is that roughly five pay cycles of contributions are already invested.

Under the old system, most of that money would still be sitting with the employer until late October.

Treasury modelling estimates the change could add around $6,000 to the retirement savings of the average 25-year-old over a full working career.

The larger benefit is visibility.

Unpaid super used to take months to surface, particularly in casual, labour hire and contract roles.

Under payday rules, a missing contribution shows up within weeks.

Where your superannuation goes matters more

This is the part worth spending time on.

More frequent contributions only compound if the money is invested sensibly once it lands.

The Australian portion of most balances is easy to benchmark.

For example, the Vanguard Australian Shares Index ETF (ASX: VAS) tracks the S&P/ASX 300 Index (ASX: XKO) and charges 0.07% a year.

In FY26 it delivered a total gross return of 6.19%, or 6.12% after fees.

The index itself gained 2.84% in value and paid a 3.32% dividend yield.

With $25.4 billion in funds under management, it remains the largest ETF on the ASX.

Foolish takeaway

Payday superannuation has made most Australians marginally better off, and it has made underpayment far harder to hide.

Neither of those is a reason to change what you own.

The timing of contributions is worth thousands over a career, while the investment option you sit in is worth hundreds of thousands.

I would spend ten minutes confirming the money is arriving, then spend considerably longer checking that your superannuation is in a risk setting that matches how long you have until you need it.

The post Payday superannuation is two months old. Has it made you better off? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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• Rates are rising again. Should you pay down your mortgage or top up your superannuation?
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• What Warren Buffett’s investing style can teach superannuation investors

Motley Fool contributor Mark Verhoeven has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.