BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) shares kicked off the new week the way they’ve kicked off quite a few recent sessions: in the red.

The ASX mining stock slipped another 0.5% on Monday to $60.59, extending a pullback that’s now stripped more than 13% off the all-time high of $68.77 set back on 26 August.

13% down in a few weeks is the kind of move that gets value hunters circling. But before anyone gets too excited about a ‘discount’, it’s worth asking whether BHP was ever actually cheap to begin with — and whether this dip is an opportunity or just gravity reasserting itself.

Keep the run in perspective

Even after the recent slide, BHP is still up roughly 33% so far in 2026, and a blistering 49% over the past 12 months. A 13% pullback off the top looks dramatic in isolation, but stack it against those gains, and it starts to look less like a crash and more like a breather after a sprint.

And the business hasn’t been standing still. FY26 revenue climbed 15% to US$58.8 billion, while underlying EBITDA jumped 27% to US$32.9 billion. Net debt shrank to a lean US$8.7 billion. The full-year dividend rose to 172 US cents per share.

This isn’t a company limping into a correction. It’s one that’s arguably earned its re-rating.

The copper story is the real headline

Buried in those numbers is arguably the most important structural shift at BHP in years. Copper, not iron ore, is now the earnings engine. Copper delivered US$18.2 billion of underlying EBITDA – up 48% – and made up 54% of group earnings. That’s the first time copper out-earned iron ore across a full year.

Production held around 2 million tonnes for a second straight year, and management is chasing roughly 40% growth by FY35 via projects spanning Australia, Chile and Argentina.

If the world’s electrification and grid-buildout thesis plays out anywhere near as expected, that positioning matters.

So, is BHP actually cheap?

Not really, and that’s the uncomfortable part. BHP shares have essentially run up to meet the market’s own expectations. TradingView consensus puts the average 12-month price target at $61.02 across 21 analysts.

That’s basically where BHP shares sit today. Ratings are split: five strong buys, 13 holds and three sell/strong sells.

There’s also a wide range of views. Morgan Stanley has a $68 target, while Freedom Capital Markets is at $66. Jefferies and Bank of America are both sitting at $65.

At the other end, Bernstein has a $44 target.

Foolish takeaway

This isn’t a screaming bargain sitting there for the taking. Valuations are full, and brokers are largely clustered around the current price. But a fortress balance sheet, growing copper exposure, and a dividend that keeps climbing are hard to ignore.

History suggests that owning world-class assets at a fair price beats trying to nail the final 10% of a rally — or the first 10% of a dip.

For patient, long-term holders, BHP shares still look more like a stock to hold through the noise than one to bail on because of a bad fortnight.

The post BHP shares keep falling. Is now the time to buy? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• How many BHP shares do I need to buy to earn $100 a week in passive income?
• If I invest $10,000 in BHP shares, how much passive income will I receive in 2027?
• How much superannuation is needed to target $5,500 per month in passive income?
• Down almost 7% in 3 days, are BHP shares finally good value?
• Are ASX shares heading for a crash? Here’s how I’m preparing

Motley Fool contributor Marc Van Dinther has positions in BHP Group. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended BHP Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

There have been some concerns aired in recent weeks about the resilience of the lithium market, Macquarie says, while identifying that there are still Australian producers that look attractive at current prices.

What has concerned lithium market watchers?

The broking house said there were two news events which rattled the markets – a survey released by a Chinese consultancy, and media reports of tighter controls on new battery capacity approvals.

Macquarie said they did not see the latter as a great surprise.

In August, we flagged a softer market conditions in 1HCY27 as surplus concerns re emerge, potentially exacerbated by an accumulation of energy storage system (ESS) inventories across the value chain over the next six months. Our recent channel checks suggest tier-one ESS battery manufacturers are operating near full utilisation, while many tier-two and tier-three players remain below 50% utilisation. In our view, regulatory intervention is aimed at curbing further expansion of lower-quality, inefficient capacity rather than restricting end-market ESS deployments.

Macquarie said they suspected some of the market concern “reflects a misunderstanding of the policy intent, with capacity controls potentially lost in translation as ESS demand-side restrictions”.

Which ASX lithium companies are preferred?

Macquarie said among Australian producers, Liontown Ltd (ASX: LTR) and Elevra Lithium Ltd (ASX: ELV) had the greatest sensitivity to lithium price upside, “given their operating leverage”.

They also said IGO Ltd (ASX: IGO) stands out for its attractive free cash flow generation across a range of lithium price scenarios.

Macquarie said re IGO:

Our base case forecasts FCF yields of 15% and 10% in FY27 and FY28, respectively. Even at a spodumene price of US$1,500/t, we estimate the company could still generate FCF yields of 7-9% across the same period. We note investor focus remains on cash distributions from TLEA, which have yet to materialise. In our view, a clearly defined cash sweep or distribution mechanism at TLEA could represent a re-rating catalyst for IGO.

Macquarie has a price target of $9.50 on IGO shares compared to $7.35 at the time of writing.

For Liontown, it has a price target of $1.50 compared to $1.07, and for Elevra, $12.50 compared to $6.97.

For PLS Group Ltd (ASX: PLS), it has a share price target of $6 compared to $4.42.

On the pricing for spodumene broadly, Macquarie said, “value continues to accrue upstream, reflecting persistent tightness in the spodumene concentrate market”.

They added:

While inventory levels may gradually rebuild as Zimbabwean supply returns, current market conditions remain supportive of concentrate pricing.

The post Which ASX lithium miners does Macquarie prefer? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• PLS shares have soared 107% in a year! Is the ASX 200 lithium stock now a buy, hold or sell?
• These are the 10 most shorted ASX shares
• 9 ASX 200 shares earning strengthened buy ratings this week
• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Wednesday

Motley Fool contributor Cameron England has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

With FY 2026 dividends up 41.6% from the prior financial year, BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) shares have jumped back onto passive income investors’ radars.

Atop the welcome passive income boost, BHP has also delivered some outsized capital gains.

Trading at $60.04 apiece on Monday, shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) mining giant have surged a remarkable 48% in 12 months.

That’s seen the Aussie miner’s market cap leap to just under $306 billion. And earlier this year, it saw BHP retake the mantle from Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) as the biggest company on the ASX.

So, how about that $100 a week – or $5,200 a year – in passive income?

We’ll crunch those numbers below in a tick.

But before we do, keep in mind that the dividend yields you generally see quoted are trailing yields. These are, by their nature, backward-looking.

Future BHP dividend payouts could be higher or lower depending on a range of macroeconomic and company-specific factors. For BHP, that includes things such as variable weather conditions and future copper and iron ore prices.

With that said…

Drilling into BHP shares for $100 a week in passive income

BHP paid a fully-franked interim dividend of $1.039 a share on 26 March.

Management then declared a final fully-franked dividend of $1.38 a share when the ASX 200 mining stock reported its full-year FY 2026 results on 18 August. That’s up 50.2% from the previous final dividend payout.

It’s a bit too late to grab that latest passive income payout, as BHP shares traded ex-dividend on 3 September. If you held the stock at market close on 2 September, you can expect to receive that boosted dividend next week, on 23 September.

For the full year, then, BHP paid out a total of $2.419 a share in fully-franked dividends.

At the recent share price, this sees the stock trading on a fully-franked trailing yield of 4%.

And to earn $100 a week, or $5,200 a year, in passive income, you’d need to buy $2,150 BHP shares today.

At the recent share price, that represents an investment of $129,086.

Now, I realise that’s a big investment to make all in one go.

But that’s okay.

Investing is a long game.

You can always buy a smaller number of BHP shares on a regular basis, and you’ll reach your $100 weekly passive income goal in good time.

The post How many BHP shares do I need to buy to earn $100 a week in passive income? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• BHP shares keep falling. Is now the time to buy?
• If I invest $10,000 in BHP shares, how much passive income will I receive in 2027?
• How much superannuation is needed to target $5,500 per month in passive income?
• Down almost 7% in 3 days, are BHP shares finally good value?
• Are ASX shares heading for a crash? Here’s how I’m preparing

Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended BHP Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.