Finding ASX growth shares trading at half their broker targets is unusual, but right now there are several doing just that.

Earnings season has ended and analysts have refreshed their price targets across hundreds of companies.

The three below have all fallen heavily over the past year.

All three are still growing earnings, which is what makes the gap interesting.

Why these ASX growth shares were sold off

The cause is the same in each case.

Interest rate expectations have moved sharply, with all four major banks now forecasting another rise this year.

Higher rates hit companies valued on distant earnings hardest, and they hit companies funding growth with debt harder still.

None of these three fell because of a downgrade.

Each of them reported growth in FY26.

1. NEXTDC Ltd (ASX: NXT)

NEXTDC closed Tuesday at $12.52 after falling 14% in a month.

UBS has a buy rating with a $23.45 target, implying 88% upside.

The FY26 result was a record.

Net revenue rose 16% to $405.0 million and underlying EBITDA rose 15% to $248.8 million, both above guidance.

Contracted utilisation surged 202% to 740.1 megawatts and statutory net profit turned positive at $82.1 million.

FY27 guidance points to net revenue of $615 million to $640 million, growth above 50%.

The catch is the capital expenditure required to deliver it, guided at $5.25 billion to $5.75 billion.

2. Nine Entertainment Co Holdings Ltd (ASX: NEC)

Nine Entertainment is the cheapest and most contrarian of the three.

Shares closed at 86 cents, down 48.19% over twelve months and barely above a 52-week low of 83.5 cents.

Morgan Stanley has a buy rating with a $1.40 target, implying 63% upside.

FY26 revenue rose 3% to $2.19 billion on a continuing business basis and group EBITDA jumped 17% to $379 million.

Net profit after tax increased 7% to $142.4 million and earnings per share before amortisation rose 11% to 9.3 cents.

The QMS Outdoor acquisition contributed $55 million of EBITDA in its first three months.

Similarly, digital subscription revenue grew 12%, and Nine has signed content licensing deals for AI applications including one with Microsoft.

Chief executive Matt Stanton explained the reshaping of the portfolio.

Over the past 12 months, we have made material changes to our business portfolio, focusing on growth and digital assets whilst reducing our exposure to structurally challenged and smaller assets. These transactions add to our operational scale and create a higher growth and more resilient Nine, better positioned to create long term sustainable value for our shareholders.

The final dividend of 3.0 cents is unfranked, and management expects that to continue.

3. Zip Co Ltd (ASX: ZIP)

Zip has the most bullish coverage on the ASX.

All twelve analysts covering the company rate it a buy or strong buy, with an average target of $4.56 against a $2.31 share price.

That implies roughly 95% upside, with the most optimistic target at $6.03.

FY26 cash EBTDA rose 57.9% to $268.9 million and revenue climbed 24.7% to $1,336.1 million.

Net profit after tax increased 45.7% to $116.4 million and the operating margin expanded from 15.8% to 20.0%.

Management has guided FY27 cash EBTDA to $340 million, up around 26%.

The United States now produces about two-thirds of revenue, and that is where the growth is coming from.

Foolish takeaway

Broker targets are opinions, not forecasts, and a 90% implied upside usually means high uncertainty rather than free money.

What these three ASX growth shares share is a market that has repriced their respective multiples.

I would rather buy a company growing revenue at 16% to 25% after a 50% fall than chase one already compounding.

The post 3 ASX growth shares experts think could double appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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• Can Zip shares recover? Here’s what the experts have to say
• 6 ASX shares tipped by brokers to rise 34% to 87%
• Experts tip battered Zip shares to deliver over 90% returns
• These are the 10 most shorted ASX shares

Motley Fool contributor Mark Verhoeven has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Microsoft. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Microsoft and Nine Entertainment. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

September could be a good time to put some fresh money to work on the S&P/ASX 200 index (ASX: XJO).

But where should you invest? 

I would be looking for high-quality businesses with strong market positions and plenty of room to grow over the long term.

With that in mind, here are three ASX 200 shares I think could be top buys this month.

Goodman Group (ASX: GMG)

Goodman could be one of the best ASX 200 shares to buy in September.

The integrated property company has built a global platform around industrial real estate, with warehouses, logistics facilities, and large-scale development sites across major markets.

That alone is a strong business. But arguably the most exciting part of the story is what Goodman is doing with data centres.

Artificial intelligence (AI) and cloud computing are driving huge demand for computing infrastructure, and data centres need land, power, planning approvals, and access to major population centres.

These are all areas where Goodman has an advantage. The company already has deep customer relationships, a strong development pipeline, and experience working with large industrial sites.

I think that gives Goodman a good chance of becoming an even more important infrastructure player over the next decade.

ResMed Inc (ASX: RMD)

ResMed is another ASX 200 share I would consider buying this month.

It is a global medical device leader with a focus on treating sleep apnoea and other respiratory conditions through masks, software, and connected healthcare products.

The long-term opportunity remains extremely large. Millions of people around the world suffer from sleep-related breathing problems, and many have not yet been diagnosed or treated.

In fact, the company estimates that there are over 1 billion people suffering from sleep apnoea, potentially giving ResMed a multi-decade growth runway.

Xero Ltd (ASX: XRO)

A third ASX 200 share to buy in September could be cloud accounting software company Xero.

It has built a platform that helps small businesses and accountants manage invoicing, payroll, reporting, bank feeds, payments, and other financial tasks.

And while AI may change how accounting work is done, Xero is not a narrow tool that can be easily replaced by one feature. Instead, AI could help automate more of the work already taking place across its platform.

Xero also has a large opportunity in markets such as the United States, where its market share remains low.

Its shares can be volatile, but I think the company has a very strong long-term growth outlook.

The post Top 3 ASX 200 shares to buy in September appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• NextDC shares have fallen 14% in a month. Is the AI data centre boom over?
• Forget CSL shares. 3 ASX healthcare stocks with bigger upside
• Xero and Megaport: 2 ASX tech shares the market can’t agree on
• Which ASX shares win when the Aussie dollar is strong?
• Home values decline for a 5th straight month – what does it mean for ASX real estate shares?

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has positions in Goodman Group, ResMed, and Xero. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Goodman Group, ResMed, and Xero. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended ResMed and Xero. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Goodman Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

NextDC Ltd (ASX: NXT) shares have fallen 14% over the past month, a strange result for a company that just tripled its contracted capacity.

The stock closed Tuesday at $12.52, down 23.28% over twelve months.

Goodman Group (ASX: GMG) has done no better, falling 19.03% over the same period.

Why NextDC shares have fallen while demand has not

Westpac moved its cash rate forecast to a November rise this week. One reason cited was the scale of investment in data centres and the renewable electricity they need.

That is an unusual situation.

The boom is now considered inflationary enough to justify tighter policy, yet the two ASX shares most exposed to it have been sold down hard.

That is because building data centres consumes enormous amounts of money before it produces any, and higher rates raise the cost of that money.

What NEXTDC actually reported

The FY26 result was the biggest in the company’s history.

Total revenue rose 16% to $496.5 million and net revenue rose 16% to $405.0 million, above guidance.

Underlying EBITDA lifted 15% to $248.8 million, also above guidance.

Statutory net profit swung to a positive $82.1 million from a $60.5 million loss.

The forward-looking numbers are the striking part.

Contracted utilisation surged 202% to 740.1 megawatts.

The forward order book stands at 565.1 megawatts, more than three times current billing utilisation.

Capital expenditure hit a record $3,397 million and pro forma liquidity rose 58% to $8.7 billion.

Chief executive Craig Scroggie set out what happens next.

FY26 was the largest contracting year in NEXTDC’s history. Contracted utilisation tripled to 740.1MW on a pro forma basis, and we exceeded guidance on both net revenue and Underlying EBITDA. Our Forward Order Book of 565MW is now more than 3.2 times our billing utilisation, and our focus is on delivering that capacity and converting it into revenue and cash inflow.

FY27 guidance calls for net revenue of $615 million to $640 million and underlying EBITDA of $385 million to $410 million.

That is growth above 50%.

But it also requires capital expenditure of $5.25 billion to $5.75 billion, which is the number that unsettles people.

Goodman is telling the same story

Goodman Group reported FY26 operating profit up 15.7% to $2.67 billion and operating earnings per security up 10.1% to 129.9 cents.

Work in progress reached $19.7 billion, and data centres now make up 78% of it.

Gearing is at just 6.5% with $6.4 billion of liquidity.

Group chief executive Greg Goodman described a market still short of supply.

Demand is structural across both logistics and data centres. Automation and robotics continue to drive logistics requirements while scarcity of power and land remains the key constraint on AI and cloud growth supporting data centre demand. Hyperscaler capex expectations continue to rise, with many customers facing undersupply into 2027 and 2028.

Goodman is targeting 9% operating earnings per security growth in FY27.

What I’d do with NextDC shares now

UBS has a buy rating on NextDC with a $23.45 target, implying 88% upside.

That is enormous upside, but it depends entirely on the company converting contracted megawatts into billed revenue on schedule.

The bear case is straightforward.

NextDC pays no dividend, trades on a price-to-earnings ratio above 100, and needs to spend more than $5 billion next year.

Goodman is the lower-risk way to own the same theme, with real earnings, a distribution and almost no debt.

Foolish takeaway

The AI data centre boom is not over, and the contracted numbers make that difficult to argue.

What has changed is the price investors will pay for growth funded by borrowed money.

I would own Goodman for the theme and NextDC only with a long investment horizon.

The post NextDC shares have fallen 14% in a month. Is the AI data centre boom over? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• 3 ASX growth shares experts think could double
• Top 3 ASX 200 shares to buy in September
• 6 ASX shares tipped by brokers to rise 34% to 87%
• Home values decline for a 5th straight month – what does it mean for ASX real estate shares?
• 4 high conviction ASX stock picks from Canaccord Genuity

Motley Fool contributor Mark Verhoeven has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Goodman Group. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Goodman Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.