On Friday, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) finished the week deep in the red. The benchmark index fell 0.9% to 8,741.2 points.

Will the market be able to bounce back from this on Monday? Here are five things to watch:

ASX 200 expected to rise

The Australian share market looks set for a decent start to the week following a good session on Wall Street on Friday. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open the day 18 points or 0.2% higher. In the United States, the Dow Jones was up 1%, the S&P 500 rose 0.85%, and the Nasdaq stormed 0.95% higher.

Oil prices fall

ASX 200 energy shares Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) and Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS) will be on watch on Monday after oil prices pulled back on Friday night. According to Bloomberg, the WTI crude oil price was down 2.4% to US$100.05 a barrel and the Brent crude oil price was down 2.8% to US$104.61 a barrel. However, an escalation in the Middle East over the weekend could send oil prices higher when Asian markets open.

Buy NextDC shares

NextDC Ltd (ASX: NXT) shares could be worth a look according to Shaw and Partners. This morning, according to The Bull, its team has named the data centre operator as a buy. It said: “While investment spending remains elevated, management continues to secure long term customer contracts that provide earnings visibility. With structural growth tailwinds expected to persist for many years, NXT remains well positioned to deliver attractive long term shareholder returns.”

Gold price edges higher

It could be a mildly positive start to the week for ASX 200 gold shares Capricorn Metals Ltd (ASX: CMM) and Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) after the gold price edged higher on Friday night. According to CNBC, the gold futures price was up slightly to US$4,408.9 an ounce. Traders were buying the dip despite increasing US rate hike bets.

ASX shares going ex-dividend

Another group of ASX shares are going ex-dividend this morning and could trade lower. Among them are debt collector Credit Corp Group Ltd (ASX: CCP), telco Chorus Ltd (ASX: CNU), travel and transport company Kelsian Group Ltd (ASX: KLS), and airline operator Virgin Australia Holdings Ltd (ASX: VGN). The latter is paying a fully franked 7.6 cents per share dividend next month on 15 October.

The post 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Monday appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has positions in Nextdc and Woodside Energy Group Ltd. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) dropped 3% to a 10-week low amid a 12% jump in the Brent crude oil price last week.

Oil prices surged as Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen moved closer to shutting down Saudi Arabia’s alternative oil export route.

Over the weekend, Iran said it would meet Gulf states in Oman to discuss the Strait of Hormuz, which has been blocked since March.

This led to an easing in the Brent crude oil price, down from nearly US$110 per barrel on Friday to US$104 per barrel on Sunday.

Let’s check out some new ratings on ASX 200 shares for the week (courtesy The Bull).  

NextDC Ltd (ASX: NXT)

The NextDC share price fell 6.22% to $12.06 on Friday.

The ASX 200 tech share is down 29% over 12 months. 

James Bills from Shaw and Partners has a buy rating on NextDC shares.

Bills said: 

The company continues to benefit from strong demand for data centre infrastructure, driven by cloud computing, artificial intelligence and increasing digitalisation across the economy.

NXT is expanding capacity across key Australian markets and maintains a strong development pipeline to support future growth.

While investment spending remains elevated, management continues to secure long term customer contracts that provide earnings visibility.

With structural growth tailwinds expected to persist for many years, NXT remains well positioned to deliver attractive long term shareholder returns.

South32 Ltd (ASX: S32)

The South32 share price declined 3.82% to $5.02 on Friday.

The ASX 200 mining share is up 92% over 12 months. 

Joshua Baker from RaaS Group has a hold rating on South32 shares.

Baker said: 

South32 is a diversified miner with exposure to copper, aluminium, manganese, zinc, silver and lead. It recently announced the sale of its aluminium value chain assets to Alcoa for up to $US5.6 billion.

The company continues to invest in the Hermosa development to grow its future base metals production. A hold recommendation is driven by stronger commodity price outlooks in key metals, including zinc.

Consequently, this can support underlying earnings and operating cash flow growth to offset the expectation of higher investment levels to support a longer term strategic plan. Underlying EBITDA grew by 28 per cent in fiscal year 2026.

Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA)

The CBA share price fell 3.88% to $154.19 on Friday.

The ASX 200 bank share has fallen 9% over 12 months.

Bills has a sell rating on CBA shares.

He explained: 

In our view, the stock trades at a significant premium to domestic peers and on historical valuations.

While the bank maintains a high quality franchise and strong market position, earnings growth is expected to remain modest amid competitive lending conditions and regulatory pressures.

Recent Federal Government initiatives aimed at increasing housing supply and improving affordability is likely to lead to intensifying competition across the mortgage market and place pressure on lending margins.

Current valuations leave limited scope for further earnings driven upside. Investors may wish to take profits and re-deploy capital into opportunities offering stronger risk-adjusted return potential.

The post Buy, hold, sell: NextDC, South32, CBA shares appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Bronwyn Allen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

After what felt like an endless slide, CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL) shares are finally giving investors something to smile about.

The biotech giant has surged almost 85% from its multi-year low of $90 in June. But the rebound hit a speed bump last week, with the CSL share price falling 5% to $167.10. Even so, it remains 21% higher over the past month, although it’s still down 21% over 12 months.

So, after such a dramatic turnaround, where could CSL shares head next?

Why have CSL shares rallied?

To understand the recovery, it helps to remember just how beaten down CSL shares had become.

At $90, its shares were trading at levels not seen in more than a decade. Even during the COVID-19 market crash, investors didn’t push CSL anywhere near that low.

The market appeared to be pricing in a very bleak future. Then came CSL’s FY26 result and a reset that investors seemed willing to embrace.

On the surface, the numbers looked disastrous. CSL reported a US$2.6 billion net loss, dragged down by US$7.1 billion of pre-tax impairments and US$799 million in restructuring costs. Much of this was non-cash, with significant impairments tied to CSL Vifor’s intangibles and under-utilised assets.

But investors looked beyond the headline loss.

Underlying NPATA fell just 2% to US$3.1 billion, while revenue slipped 1% to US$15.8 billion, beating expectations.

More importantly, the result gave the market a cleaner starting point and a clearer path forward.

Why FY27 could make or break the recovery

The bull case now rests heavily on FY27. CSL expects underlying NPAT to grow about 5%, ahead of consensus expectations for roughly 2% growth.

Behring is expected to deliver mid-single-digit growth, with immunoglobulin sales forecast to rise at a mid-to-high single-digit rate.

Vifor remains the major headache, however, with revenue expected to plunge around 25% as iron generics enter the market. Vifor itself was the source of most of the impairments, and it is now shrinking by a quarter a year.

The bulls argue Behring is large enough to absorb that. Consensus forecasts put earnings per CSL share at approximately $9.00 in FY27, $9.50 in FY28 and $10.10 in FY29.

At $167.10, CSL trades at roughly 19 times forecast FY27 earnings. That’s hardly bargain territory, but it could look reasonable if the earnings recovery plays out.

Are CSL shares heading higher?

Several major brokers remain bullish on CSL shares despite the recent rally.

UBS has a buy rating and $181 price target, implying around 8% upside. Morgan Stanley is overweight with a $182 target, while Morgans has a buy rating and $187.71 target, representing roughly 12% potential upside.

So, while CSL shares have bounced sharply, the broker view suggests there may still be some upside, provided the anticipated earnings recovery materialises.

However, the team at Macquarie is considerably more cautious, with a neutral rating and target of just over $133.

For investors, the key question may no longer be whether CSL can recover, but whether its improving outlook can justify the much higher share price.

The post CSL shares just fell 5% after a strong rally. Is the recovery losing steam? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Marc Van Dinther has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended CSL. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended CSL. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.