On Tuesday, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) had a disappointing session and dropped deep into the red. The benchmark index fell 1% to 8,920.8 points.

Will the market be able to bounce back from this on Wednesday? Here are five things to watch:

ASX 200 to rise

The Australian share market looks set for a better session on Wednesday despite a poor night on Wall Street. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open the day 17 points or 0.2% higher. In the United States, the Dow Jones fell 1.2%, the S&P 500 dropped 0.6%, and the Nasdaq was 0.3% lower.

Oil prices jump

ASX 200 energy shares including Beach Energy Ltd (ASX: BPT) and Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) could have a good session on Wednesday after oil prices jumped overnight. According to Bloomberg, the WTI crude oil price is up 3% to US$94.25 a barrel and the Brent crude oil price is up 2.4% to US$99.36 a barrel. This follows reports of an Iranian attack on US Navy ships.

Accumulate Paladin Energy shares

Morgans has been looking at Paladin Energy Ltd (ASX: PDN) and particularly the Patterson Lake South resource. In response, it has maintained its accumulate rating with a trimmed price target of $13.30. It said: “We expect the resource and mine life to increase materially in time. Simply simple – PLS is one of the highest-grade undeveloped uranium projects globally, but its development plan is surprisingly conventional, with a TBM decline, proven mining methods, a standard Athabasca processing flowsheet and uncomplicated tailings storage reducing technical risk. We maintain an ACCUMULATE rating with a reduced price target A$13.30ps (previously A$14.10ps) with the removal of our 10% price premium.”

Gold price falls

ASX 200 gold shares including Westgold Resources Ltd (ASX: WGX) and Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) could have a poor session on Wednesday after the gold price pulled back meaningfully. According to CNBC, the gold futures price is down 1.7% to US$4,400 an ounce. Traders were selling gold ahead of the release of US inflation data.

ASX 200 shares going ex-dividend

A number of ASX 200 shares are going ex-dividend today and could trade lower. This includes Brambles Ltd (ASX: BXB), CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL), Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN), IGO Ltd (ASX: IGO), and Northern Star. CSL will be paying shareholders 227.7 cents per share early next month on 2 October.

The post 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Wednesday appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has positions in CSL. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended CSL. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended CSL. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Zip shares have halved over the past year, but the analyst community has not budged an inch.

Every broker covering the company still rates it a buy.

What’s more, the average price target implies the shares roughly doubling from here.

Why brokers are so bullish on Zip shares

Zip Co Ltd (ASX: ZIP) closed Tuesday at $2.31, down 2.94% on the day.

Shares have fallen 49.12% over twelve months and 25.84% year to date. The 52-week range runs from $1.37 to $4.93.

All twelve analysts covering the company hold a buy or strong buy rating.

The average target of $4.56 implies around 95% upside, and the most bullish sits at $6.03.

UBS has reiterated a buy rating with a $4.70 target, pointing to the defensive qualities of the buy now, pay later model in weaker economic conditions.

The FY26 result behind the call

The numbers are part of the reason the brokers have not capitulated.

Zip delivered record cash EBTDA of $268.9 million in FY26, up 57.9%.

Total revenue rose 24.7% to $1,336.1 million and total transaction value climbed 27.2% to $16.7 billion.

Net profit after tax increased 45.7% to $116.4 million.

The margin story is arguably more important than the growth.

Operating margin expanded from 15.8% to 20.0% in a single year.

The company also completed $150 million of buybacks and announced a further $50 million for FY27, with available cash and liquidity of $246.5 million.

Group chief executive Cynthia Scott put the result in context:

Consistent execution has built the platform to deliver our next phase of growth and innovation. In FY26, we exceeded our targets with record cash earnings of $268.9m, up 57.9%, underpinned by material cash earnings growth in both markets. We maintained strong unit economics, expanded operating leverage and reinforced the value of our differentiated business model.

The United States is the whole story

Importantly for Zip, the American business now generates roughly two-thirds of group revenue.

Transaction volume and revenue both grew more than 42% there in local currency terms.

Active United States customers rose 9.3% to 4.65 million.

The Australian and New Zealand business is going the other way, with customer numbers down 8% to 1.88 million.

Management is winding down the New Zealand operation entirely to concentrate on Australia.

Guidance for FY27 calls for group cash EBTDA of $340 million, up around 26%.

The operating margin target is 20% to 22% and United States transaction volume is expected to grow more than 30%.

Zip is also weighing a share consolidation and a possible dual listing on the Nasdaq.

What has gone wrong for Zip shares

The share price fall has very little to do with the accounts.

Three things have worked against it at once.

The first is a broad sell-off in technology and high-multiple names.

The second is competition, with the buy now, pay later market crowded and margins under permanent scrutiny.

The third, and perhaps most important, is interest rates.

Zip lends money to consumers, which makes it geared to household health in both directions.

Consumer sentiment fell 5.2% in September to 84.4, with nearly two-thirds of consumers expecting mortgage rates to rise within a year.

All four major banks now forecast another rate rise before the end of 2026.

Foolish takeaway

The bull case for Zip shares is not overly complicated.

Earnings are growing fast, margins are expanding and the United States business is scaling.

The bear case is that none of that has been tested through a true consumer downturn. Only time will tell for Zip shares.

The post Can Zip shares recover? Here’s what the experts have to say appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Mark Verhoeven has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are one of my favourite ways to add exposure to areas of the market that can be difficult to capture with individual ASX shares.

If I were putting fresh money to work this September, these three Betashares ETFs would be high on my list.

Betashares S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (ASX: QUS)

The QUS ETF gives investors exposure to 500 leading US companies with an important difference from a traditional S&P 500 fund.

Each company receives an equal weighting when the index is rebalanced quarterly. That means the portfolio is less dependent on a small group of enormous technology companies driving returns.

I like that approach at the moment. The US share market offers exposure to an enormous range of world-class businesses across healthcare, industrials, financial services, consumer goods, technology, and plenty of other industries.

Giving those companies a more equal influence means investors can participate if US market growth becomes more evenly spread.

It also gives me a different way to invest in the United States without once again making the largest technology names the centre of the portfolio.

Betashares India Quality ETF (ASX: IIND)

India is another market I would be interested in owning for the long term.

The Betashares India Quality ETF provides easy exposure to 30 Indian stocks selected using measures including profitability, leverage, and earnings stability.

I like the quality screen here. India offers a substantial long-term growth opportunity, but investing in an emerging market can bring additional risks. Focusing on financially stronger businesses gives me a more selective way to participate.

The country’s large population and developing economy create opportunities across areas such as banking, consumer spending, technology, manufacturing, and infrastructure.

I would expect plenty of volatility along the way, but I think India could become an increasingly important part of global share markets over the coming decades.

Betashares Australian Quality ETF (ASX: AQLT)

Closer to home, the AQLT ETF provides another way to approach Australian shares.

The fund targets high-quality ASX companies using return on equity, leverage, and earnings stability. Its index is designed to hold around 40 businesses rather than simply allocating the most money to the largest companies on the market.

I like that because the Australian share market can become heavily influenced by its biggest companies and sectors.

A quality-focused strategy can lead to a different portfolio, with Betashares noting that the fund has historically had greater exposure to areas such as consumer discretionary and less exposure to materials than the broader Australian market.

For a long-term holding, I think prioritising strong profitability, manageable debt, and steadier earnings is a sensible approach.

Foolish takeaway

I would happily consider all three ETFs this September.

What I like most is that they give me ways to invest beyond the most obvious market exposures. I can broaden my US holdings, participate in India’s long-term development, and take a more selective approach to Australian shares.

For investors prepared to hold through the inevitable ups and downs, I think each could have a place in a long-term portfolio.

The post Why I’d buy these Betashares ETFs in September appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• 3 strong ASX ETFs I’d buy to try and beat the market
• 3 super ASX ETFs for beginner investors
• 3 Betashares ETFs I’d buy and hold for 10 years

Motley Fool contributor Grace Alvino has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.