At lunch on Thursday the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is on course to record a disappointing decline. The benchmark index is down 0.9% to 5,371.4 points at the time of writing.

Here’s what has been happening today:

Big four banks tumble.

The big four banks are acting as a major drag on the Australian share market on Thursday. All four banks are trading notably lower at lunch, but the worst performer is the Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) share price with a decline of greater than 3%. This morning analysts at Morgan Stanley retained their sell rating and cut the price target on its shares down to $56.00. It has forecast a big dividend cut in August.

Xero delivers strong full year result.

The Xero Limited (ASX: XRO) share price is dropping lower on Thursday after the release of its full year results. Although the cloud-based business and accounting software provider delivered very strong sales and EBITDA growth, its outlook appears to have spooked investors. Management advised that many small businesses are struggling during the pandemic and this is weighing on its performance. As a result, no guidance was given for the year ahead.

Record Australian job losses.

Australia has just recorded the biggest job losses since records began in 1978. During the month of April 594,300 jobs were lost, bringing Australia’s unemployment rate to a seasonally adjusted 6.2%. This was greater than the 550,000 jobs that economists were expecting to lose last month.

Best and worst ASX 200 performers.

The best performer on the ASX 200 on Thursday has been the Graincorp Ltd (ASX: GNC) share price with a 17% gain. This morning the grain exporter released its half year results and reported an underlying net profit after tax of $55 million. This was an increase from a $48 million net loss after tax in the prior corresponding period. The worst performer has been the Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield (ASX: URW) share price with a 6% decline on no news.

Returns as of 7/4/2020

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of Xero. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More reading

• Two exciting ASX tech shares to buy right now
• Why Beach, CBA, Qantas, & Xero shares are dropping lower
• What happens to ASX shares if Australian house prices do fall 30%?
• Why Breville, Graincorp, Mesoblast, & Newcrest shares are charging higher
• Should you cash out of this ASX 200 rally?

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In late morning trade the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is following the lead of U.S. markets and dropping lower. At the time of writing the benchmark index is down over 1% to 5,365.1 points.

Four shares that have fallen more than most today are listed below. Here’s why they are dropping lower:

The Beach Energy Ltd (ASX: BPT) share price is down almost 5% to $1.40. Investors have been selling Beach and other energy shares after a pullback in oil prices overnight. Though, one broker that thinks its shares are in the buy zone is Morgans. This morning it retained its add rating with a reduced price target of $1.66.

The Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) share price is down 3% to $59.01. This decline may have been driven by a broker note out of Morgan Stanley this morning. In response to its third quarter update, the broker has retained its underweight rating and cut the price target on its shares to $56.00. It doesn’t believe Commonwealth Bank deserves to trade at a premium and is expecting a big dividend cut in August.

The Qantas Airways Limited (ASX: QAN) share price has fallen 3.5% to $3.42. Investors have been selling the airline operator’s shares after the Queensland government confirmed that it is looking to buy a stake in rival Virgin Australia Holdings Limited (ASX: VAH). The state government appears determined not to let Virgin Australia collapse during the pandemic.

The Xero Limited (ASX: XRO) share price is down almost 4% to $80.62 following the release of its full year results. For the 12 months ended March 31, the business and accounting software company delivered a 30% lift in operating revenue and a 52% lift in EBITDA. Whilst this was strong, the company warned that it is being impacted by the pandemic. As such, no guidance was provided for FY 2021.

More reading

• Two exciting ASX tech shares to buy right now
• ASX 200 down 0.9%: Xero posts strong growth & Australian economy loses 594,300 jobs
• What happens to ASX shares if Australian house prices do fall 30%?
• Losers of Virgin Australia’s potential nationalisation
• Are ASX travel shares like Qantas great value?

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of Xero. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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What will happen to ASX shares if Australian house prices do actually fall 30% like some economists are predicting.

A lot is being made of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) predicted scenario where house prices may fall 30% due to the coronavirus. But that’s just one potential scenario. CBA isn’t saying house prices will fall 30%, it isn’t the most likely outcome – just a worst-case one.

How far do banks think property will fall?

However, all of the big four ASX banks are now predicting that house prices are probably going to fall by more than 10%. Anecdotal evidence suggests that in some areas house prices have already dropped 10%, it just isn’t reflected in the statistics yet.

Obviously if house prices were to drop it would be bad news for a wide variety of ASX shares. For starters, I think CBA, Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC), Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ASX: ANZ) and National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB) would all suffer.

I believe the regional lenders would also suffer. The pain may be smaller in dollar terms, but don’t forget their loan books are smaller too. In percentage terms it could be just as bad, if not worse. I’d watch for the effects on Bank of Queensland Limited (ASX: BOQ) and Bendigo and Adelaide Bank Ltd (ASX: BEN).

If house prices dropped 30% then that could cause higher bank bad debts due to negative equity.

I think it could also be bad for property businesses that are somewhat reliant on a robust property market. Think of shares like REA Group Limited (ASX: REA), Domain Holdings Australia Ltd (ASX: DHG), CSR Limited (ASX: CSR), Beacon Lighting Group Ltd (ASX: BLX) and Nick Scali Limited (ASX: NCK). Share prices would probably fall.

The negative effect could be a noticeable negative for many areas of the economy like we saw during the first half of 2019. And think of all of the taxes generated by property values for various areas of government – stamp duty, council rates and so on.

Falling house prices may be good for one group of people, avocado eaters may finally be able to afford a house.

Do I think house prices will fall 30%?

Australia’s economy is quite reliant on property. Would property buyers really let Aussie house prices fall that far? Maybe everyone would jump in at a 20% reduction. Interest rates are now incredibly low which makes it easier to afford a property.

I certainly expect property will fall over 10% (some property buyers say they already have in parts). But I think a 30% won’t happen because of the Aussie love for property and how much support there is and will be for property prices.

More reading

• ASX 200 down 0.9%: Xero posts strong growth & Australian economy loses 594,300 jobs
• Why Beach, CBA, Qantas, & Xero shares are dropping lower
• Is the CBA share price a buy?
• Negative interest rates coming? Here’s what it would mean for ASX shares
• ASX 200 up 0.35%, CBA gives Q3 update

Motley Fool contributor Tristan Harrison has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended REA Group Limited. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The post What happens to ASX shares if Australian house prices do fall 30%? appeared first on Motley Fool Australia.

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