Recently trading for $158.69 apiece, Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) shares have fallen 6.1% over the past 12 months.

For some context, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) has gained 1.4% over this same period.

Though we shouldn’t dismiss the two fully franked dividends the ASX 200 bank stock paid over the past year. CBA stock trades on a 3.2% fully franked trailing dividend yield.

But with economic headwinds brewing, Morgans’ Damien Nguyen expects CBA could continue to underperform the benchmark in the months ahead (courtesy of The Bull).

Should I sell CBA shares today?

“The CBA continues to deliver resilient earnings, strong capital levels and industry leading returns, reinforcing its position as Australia’s premier banking franchise,” Nguyen said.

He added:

However, the earnings growth outlook remains relatively modest as intense competition and margin pressure possibly weigh on profitability. Despite these headwinds, the stock trades at a significant premium to its peers and historical valuations.

Indeed, CBA shares trade on a price to earnings (P/E) ratio of around 24 times, the highest among the ASX 200 bank stocks.

Summarising his sell recommendation, Nguyen concluded, “With limited scope for earnings upgrades, we believe the share price leaves little room for disappointment.”

ASX 200 stock in energy transition crosshairs

Atop his sell recommendation for CBA shares, Nguyen also recommends selling ASX 200 energy infrastructure company APA Group (ASX: APA).

“This energy infrastructure business provides investors with stable, regulated cash flows and a defensive earnings profile,” he said.

“Total revenue was down 6.3% in full year 2026, but profit after tax was up 81.4%. Balance sheet leverage is significant, in our view, and funding costs can be a challenging headwind,” Nguyen added.

Summarising his sell recommendation on APA Group shares, he concluded:

The market is concerned that the shift away from gas may create uncertainty about future demand in the longer term. Although APA is pursuing energy transition opportunities, we believe these are unlikely to materially improve earnings in the near term. We believe investors can find better risk-adjusted opportunities elsewhere.

Also bearish on CBA shares

Sanlam Private Wealth’s Remo Greco also believes CommBank could be in for some growing headwinds (from The Bull).

“This leading Australian bank posted cash net profit after tax of $10.982 billion in full year 2026, up 7% on the prior corresponding period,” he said. “Revenue from ordinary activities of $30.153 billion was up 7%.”

As for his sell recommendation on CBA shares, Greco said:

Investors are concerned about slowing housing credit growth. Home loan applications fell about 15% since the federal budget in May and the company’s full year result in August.

Mortgage competition remains elevated. Investors may want to consider cashing in some gains until a clearer picture emerges about the state of Australia’s housing market, the outlook for interest rates and the broader outlook for credit growth moving forward.

The post Sell alert! Why this expert is calling time on CBA shares and this top ASX 200 stock appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• How to earn $10,000 in passive income a month with these ASX dividend shares
• 3 strong ASX dividend shares with yields up to 7.7%
• Term deposits are paying more than ever. Are ASX dividend shares still worth it?
• Home values just fell for a fifth straight month. Which ASX shares are most exposed?
• When to sell your ASX shares? Warren Buffett has 3 answers

Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Apa Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

A new report from Bell Potter has projected a strong 12 months for ASX 200 stock Graincorp Ltd (ASX: GNC). 

GrainCorp is an agribusiness and processing company with a history spanning more than 100 years. 

The company operates the largest grain storage and logistics network in eastern Australia.

GrainCorp also provides grain marketing services to all major grain-producing regions in Australia as well as to its overseas growers. 

Its share price is down almost 23% over the last year. 

However a new report from Bell Potter suggests it could be a value opportunity for this ASX 200 stock following an update. 

Strong update 

In yesterday’s report, Bell Potter said that GrainCorp’s earnings outlook is improving due to both higher crop volumes and stronger margins. 

The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics (ABARE) has upgraded its 2026-27 east coast winter crop forecast by 2.8mt, or 12%, to 26.6mt, with particularly strong improvements in NSW and Victoria. 

Although this remains below the previous year’s crop, the forecast is around the five-year average.

According to the broker, the company may process less grain from the summer harvest than last year, but it is expected to make more money from each tonne it processes. 

The expected summer crop is falling from 4.6 million tonnes to 3.4 million tonnes, but the profit margin on processing oilseeds is looking much stronger. 

This improvement is partly because crops in the Northern Hemisphere are weaker while Australia’s crop outlook is improving, creating more favourable pricing conditions for the ASX 200 company. 

So, while volumes are down, higher margins could more than make up for it and support stronger profits.

Big price target upgrade 

Based on this guidance, Bell Potter has upgraded its FY27 EBITDA estimate by 15% and raised its target price from $5.90 to $7.15 per share. 

From current levels, this indicates a 14% upside. 

The ABARE crop report is positive and likely to lead to consensus upgrades. However, the margin backdrop at this point, in terms of both grain basis and oilseed crush margins, looks possibly the strongest it has for three years. To us this is key, as consensus FY27e expectations (which this crop estimate underwrites) looks to be carrying forward the margin environment of FY25-26e, which was materially weaker. This implies that there is both volume and margin upside potential within consensus FY27e expectations.

The post This ASX 200 stock just got a big upgrade from Bell Potter appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Wednesday
• This exciting ASX 300 stock has 89% upside: Broker
• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today
• This ASX financials stock just soared 11% on results and is tipped to keep rising
• After crashing 6% on results, what is Bell Potter’s view on Domino’s shares?

Motley Fool contributor Aaron Bell has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

If you are looking for big potential returns and have a high tolerance for risk, then it could be worth hearing what Morgans is saying about the speculative ASX shares named below.

Here’s what the broker is recommending:

EchoIQ Ltd (ASX: EIQ)

Morgans remains positive on this medical technology company following the release of its FY 2026 results and outlook for FY 2027.

In response, the broker has retained its speculative buy rating and $1.85 price target on its shares. Based on its current share price of $1.32, this implies potential upside of 40%. It commented:

The FY26 annual report confirms the numbers already flagged via quarterlies, but the real signal is the FY27 outlook section, which reads as almost entirely execution language now the balance sheet question is solved. 

The market is still waiting on an FDA decision for its Heart Failure (HF) application, which remains the key near-term catalyst and value inflection driver. Despite delays, we maintain a positive view on approval. Speculative Buy retained and A$1.85 p/s target price unchanged.

PeopleIn Ltd (ASX: PPE)

Another ASX share that Morgans is recommending is PeopleIn. 

It rates the workforce solutions company’s shares as a speculative buy with a $1.00 price target. Based on its current share price of 66 cents, this implies potential upside of approximately 50%. It commented:

PPE’s FY26 sees the completion of its portfolio simplification, with two subscale divisions divested (c.35% of the business) and the ongoing operations returned to growth. Group Normalised EBITDA of $19.0m (+1.6% pcp) was in line with MorgansF, while Normalised NPATA of $8.7m (+29.9% pcp) came in c.53% ahead on a lower underlying D&A (excl acquisitions amortisation). 

Debt continues to decline, with capital management centred on dividends/buybacks, along with incremental M&A. Second-half momentum was the feature, with 2H26 Normalised EBITDA up 19.0% on 2H25 and Engineering, Trades and Labour up 122.7%, as the Queensland infrastructure ramp began to convert. We retain our Speculative BUY with a revised A$1.00 target price (70% PER / 30% DCF).

Readytech Holdings Ltd (ASX: RDY)

Finally, although this mission-critical software provider’s results were a touch short of expectations, Morgans remains positive.

In response, the broker has retained its speculative buy rating with a $2.25 price target. Based on its current share price of $1.54, this implies potential upside of approximately 45%. Morgans commented:

RDY’s FY26 result came in towards the lower end of its revised FY26 guidance range, with revenue of $125m & EBITDA of $34.8m -1%/-4% lower than MorgF respectively, with contract implementation timing and customer churn across RDY’s legacy portfolio key headwinds during the period. 

Lower planned investment into FY27 and an improved cost base stemming from the group’s FY26 efficiency program should see the pathway back towards improved growth and margins as achievable, underpinning FY27 guidance of revenue of ~$128-132m (+2.4-5.6% YoY) & cash EBITDA margins of 15-17%. We trim EBITDA forecasts by -3-4% in FY27-FY29F, with our SPEC BUY retained.

The post Morgans says these speculative ASX shares could rise 40% to 50% appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• 3 ASX shares with fresh buy ratings and big upside from Morgans
• 2 ASX shares tipped by brokers to return 49% to 68%

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Peoplein and ReadyTech. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Peoplein. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.