Many ASX investment experts reckon the changes to capital gains tax (CGT) will encourage a switched focus from growth to yield.

The 50% CGT discount for assets held longer than 12 months will be replaced by a cost base indexation method on 1 July next year.

The new rules grandfather existing ASX shares investments. So, the 50% CGT discount will apply to gains made before 1 July, 2027.

After that date, capital gains on existing investments, and new investments purchased thereafter, will be subject to cost base indexation.

A minimum 30% tax on net capital gains will apply.

Morgans has buy ratings on two ASX dividend shares that offer 6% to 7% annual distribution yields.

Centuria Industrial REIT (ASX: CIP)

The Centuria Industrial REIT share price is $2.89, down 0.5% today and down 14% over 12 months.

Morgans has an accumulate recommendation on this ASX real estate investment trust (REIT).

The broker said the ASX dividend share offers a 6% annual distribution that should continue to grow.

In a recent note, Morgans said:

CIP delivered FY26 FFO of 18.2cpu and distributions of 16.8cpu, both in line with guidance but at the bottom of the upgraded 18.2-18.5cpu range, and 1% below MorgansF of 18.4cpu.

CIP produced +5.2% like-for-like NOI growth, a near record 226,200sqm of leasing completed, spreads moderating to 30%, and +$116m like-for-like valuation gains, resulting in NTA up 2.3% to $4.01/unit.

FY27 FFO guidance of 18.8-19.2cpu was above market expectations, while the 17.3cpu of distribution guidance in FY27 reflects a more modest 3% growth (vs pcp), driven by rent reversion leasing in the second half.

We rate CIP ACCUMULATE, with a $3.25/sh PT, as the 6% distribution should continue to grow as rental income grows through a mix of positive rent reversion and lease indexation.

Waypoint REIT Ltd (ASX: WPR)

The Waypoint REIT share price is $2.27, down 1.1% today and down 17% over 12 months.

Morgans also has an accumulate rating on this ASX dividend share, which offers a 7% annual distribution.

The broker commented:

WPR’s 1H26 result was marginally ahead of our expectations, with management reaffirming CY26 Distributable EPS (DEPS) guidance of 17.14cps.

With limited expiries in CY27/28 (13% of NLA), WPR remains sensitive to the wider rate environment, and physical asset transactions point to some incremental softening in cap rates, albeit highly contingent on asset quality and location.

Trading at a c.7% distribution yield and 20% discount to NTA we do see value.

However, higher rates are likely to remain a headwind to earnings growth over CY27/28.

To this end, our target price remains broadly unchanged at $2.55, as we reiterate our ACCUMULATE recommendation on valuation grounds.

The post 2 ASX dividend shares offering 6% to 7% yields buy-rated by Morgans appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Bronwyn Allen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

It’s turning into a pretty horrid week for the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) and many ASX shares. The ASX 200 started the week at just over 9,000 points – a psychological threshold that the market has continuously traded above for more than a month. However, after a 1% drop on Tuesday, a further 0.1% decline yesterday, and a nasty 1.5% drop so far this Thursday, the index is now sitting at just 8,777 points. As such, many investors may be wondering whether we are seeing the start of a stock market crash unfolding in real time.

Let’s dig into that uncomfortable question.

Well, it’s no secret that the markets are currently rattled. It’s not hard to see why. There are still some positive aspects of the global economy, of course. For example, corporate investment, particularly into AI infrastructure, remains elevated by historical standards in some corners of the global economy.

But the potential negatives seem to be overtaking this optimism in the minds of investors around the world. There are many troubling developments to point to here.

For one, the situation in the Middle East remains unresolved. Various tit-for-tat moves between Iran and the United States have kept the Starits of Hormuz effectively closed. Oil prices are responding accordingly, with Brent crude oil now back over US$101 a barrel. High oil prices spill over into the costs of transport, production and most other economic inputs, as well as dampen economic activity throughout the global economy.

Higher oil prices also increase inflation, which we’ll touch on in a moment.

So there’s that.

What could cause an ASX stock market crash?

Additionally, investors in the global bond market have also begun to bid up the price of government debt across the board. That includes US government debt, as well as Australian bonds.

That might not sound consequential. But it has profound implications for investors. High bond prices reflect a loss of confidence in those governments’ fiscal foundations. That’s not great news for a world that is reliant on the US economy and the supremacy of the US dollar for stability and growth.

These concerns seem to stem from ever-widening budget deficits, as well as sticky inflation. Inflation is still well above where the governments of both the United States and Australia want it to be. And, as we touched on above, it could get even worse if oil prices keep climbing. Australia has already had three interest rate rises in 2026, and markets are bracing for at least one more. Although this may eventually tame inflation, it will come with a cost to households and businesses across the country.

All in all, we have a potentially potent cauldron of factors that could bode very ill indeed for the global economy. So it’s perhaps no wonder that the markets seem to be losing confidence, and fast.

Foolish takeaway

Now, whether the markets will continue to drop, and even hit correction or crash territory, is something that no one can predict. The markets may well bounce back on the back of some positive development in the Middle East, or within any other arena that we’ve discussed. Or, things could just keep getting worse.

I think investors should be preparing themselves for either scenario. It’s important to wargame these scenarios before they happen and avoid decisions you may later regret (selling shares during a crash, for example). So if you’re worried about a potential stock market crash, today is the day to take stock of your portfolio and draw up a battle plan.

The post Is the ASX heading for a stock market crash? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Sebastian Bowen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Siteminder Ltd (ASX: SDR) shares have fallen almost 60% over twelve months, and the brokers covering the company now think there is more upside than downside.

The stock trades at $2.80 against a 52-week range of $2.60 to $7.96.

The majority of brokers hold a buy rating, and the $5.40 average target implies roughly 90% upside.

The market capitalisation is now under $804 million.

Why SiteMinder shares collapsed

The company sells an e-commerce platform to hotels and other accommodation businesses.

The shares have dropped around 27% since the FY26 result in late August and are down 52.30% for the calendar year.

Two things caused the damage.

The first was the broad de-rating of ASX technology shares, as investors questioned whether artificial intelligence erodes software business models.

The second was specific and came from the outlook statement.

What the FY26 result showed

Weirdly, the numbers were the best in the company’s history.

Revenue rose 22% on a constant currency and organic basis to $266.1 million.

Adjusted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation jumped 96.5% to $28.1 million.

The margin expanded to 10.6% and the net loss narrowed to $11.3 million from $24.5 million.

Annual recurring revenue grew 24.1% to $313.7 million and adjusted free cash flow more than doubled to $10.5 million.

The operating detail was good too.

Transaction revenue grew 34% and average revenue per user climbed 9.3% to $429.

SiteMinder now serves 56,000 hotel customers globally, with the Channels Plus hotel count up 43%.

Adjusted gross margin reached 67.2%.

More than 85% of customer billings are in foreign currencies, so a stronger Australian dollar impacted earnings.

Chief executive Sankar Narayan pointed to the trajectory of the company:

SiteMinder’s FY26 performance builds on three years of sustained progress. Subscription and transaction ARR growth have exceeded 15% and 30%, respectively, on a constant-currency and organic basis in each of those years, while adjusted EBITDA has improved by more than $50 million with margins expanding from negative 14.5% to positive 10.6%.

The guidance that sank SiteMinder shares

Management expects the adjusted EBITDA margin to keep expanding in FY27 and reach the mid-20% range by FY30.

Annual recurring revenue is targeted to grow at around 20% a year over the next four years.

Herein lies the problem.

ARR grew 24.1% in FY26, so a 20% target is a deceleration.

A mid-20% margin by FY30 is four years away for a company that just posted margins of 10.6%.

Investors who had priced in faster compounding left.

There is a reasonable counter-argument.

Guiding to 20% ARR growth after delivering 24.1% is conservative rather than alarming, and management has beaten its own numbers for three consecutive years.

The margin path is also cumulative, so each year of expansion compounds against a larger revenue base.

None of that helped a share price that had been priced for perfection.

Foolish takeaway

The bear case on SiteMinder shares is that the company will likely exhibit slowing growth from here.

The bull case is that a business growing recurring revenue at 20% with expanding margins should not be valued at $804 million.

I think the sell-off has gone too far, because the FY26 execution was strong and the balance sheet no longer needs rescuing.

The risk is that global travel softens while households everywhere tighten, and hotels are not immune to that.

The post Brokers say SiteMinder shares can rise 90%. Is the sell-off overdone? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Mark Verhoeven has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended SiteMinder. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended SiteMinder. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.