Bubs Australia Ltd (ASX: BUB) shares soared on Monday this week when the company announced it had secured approval to supply the US market with its infant formula products.

Bell Potter has since upgraded its price target on the company, and the analyst team believes there’s about 46% more upside in the shares as a result of the announcement.

I’ll get to their exact share price target on the stock shortly.

First let’s look in some more detail at what the company announced this week.

Key US approval is in the bag

Bubs said in a statement to the ASX that it had secured permanent US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approval for its Bubs Goat, Bubs 365 Day Grass Fed and Bubs Essential infant formula products.

The company said the authorisation confirms that Bubs products, manufacturing systems and scientific evidence satisfy US regulatory requirements for safety, nutritional adequacy and quality.

The company added:

The United States infant formula market is one of the most highly regulated consumer categories globally, with substantial scientific, regulatory and manufacturing requirements for entry. Permanent FDA authorisation strengthens Bubs’ competitive position as the only Australian infant formula brand and one of a limited number of international manufacturers able to participate in this market. The approval provides a foundation for continued growth across Bubs’ branded portfolio while creating strategic optionality for future product innovation and market expansion.

Bubs Managing Director Joe Coote said it was a “transformational milestone” for the company.

He added:

This approval provides the platform to accelerate our US growth strategy, deepen retailer partnerships, strengthen consumer awareness of the Bubs brand and expand consumer reach across a market where we are already represented in more than 10,000 stores nationwide. Importantly, it also creates additional opportunities to broaden our product offering and evaluate participation in the US private label infant nutrition segment. While any private label expansion remains subject to further regulatory, technical and commercial milestones, the FDA authorisation represents a significant strategic asset that we consider enhances Bubs’ long-term growth potential.

Bubs Australia shares looking cheap

Bell Potter said in a research note to clients that the authorisation was a “material derisking event” for Bubs.

The broker added:

It has been overhanging the stock for some time and is now resolved. Our forecasts already assume ongoing US market access, but having gained USFDA approval, there may be a pathway to accelerate distribution point expansion beyond current projections.

Bell Potter has increased its price target on Bubs Australia shares from 13.5 cents to 19 cents, comparted to the current price of 13 cents.

Bubs is valued at $89.4 million.

The post How high could Bubs Australia shares go, according to Bell Potter? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Bubs shares just rocketed 40%. Here’s the news investors were waiting for
• This ASX share jumped 7% before a trading halt. What’s going on?
• How high do brokers think Bubs Australia shares will go?

Motley Fool contributor Cameron England has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) shares rose again on Monday on a report out of China.

The country’s largest steelmaker is considering buying into one of the BHP’s biggest iron ore mines.

What does this mean for BHP?

Well, this piece of news points to a change in how Australia’s biggest miner and its biggest customer deal with each other.

What China’s Baowu is proposing

China Baowu Steel Group is reportedly weighing a minority stake in BHP’s Jimblebar operation in the Pilbara.

The range under discussion is 15% to 25%.

The stake would come out of BHP’s own 85% holding, with Itochu and Mitsui owning the remaining 15%.

Jimblebar is not a peripheral asset.

The operation produced roughly 62.5 million tonnes in FY26, close to a quarter of BHP’s total iron ore output.

BHP responded to the reports without confirming anything.

BHP notes the recent media speculation regarding a potential partnership involving part of the Western Australia Iron Ore (WAIO) business. BHP has a long history of partnerships at its assets and regularly explores options that may create long-term value to its shareholders.

Why this matters more than the price move for BHP shares

Context is everything here.

Until April, China Mineral Resources Group was restricting purchases of BHP’s US dollar-denominated cargoes.

That pricing dispute ran for roughly seven months.

CMRG negotiates contracts covering more than half of China’s iron ore imports.

It was resolved shortly after Brandon Craig met leaders of both CMRG and Baowu in Beijing.

Craig became BHP’s chief executive on 1 July.

A customer that owns part of the mine has a very different set of incentives in the next pricing negotiation.

That is the real significance for BHP shares.

The precedent at Rio Tinto

This would not be the first time Baowu has bought into the Pilbara.

Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO) opened the Western Range mine with Baowu in June 2025.

The US$2 billion joint venture is owned 54/46 and can produce up to 25 million tonnes a year.

The model already exists and it already works.

The contrast between the two miners is important to highlight.

BHP settled with CMRG in April.

Rio Tinto has not, and in August CMRG reportedly instructed some Chinese mills to halt negotiations with the company over shipments from September.

Rio Tinto delivered a strong first half regardless, with underlying EBITDA up 28% to US$14.8 billion and the interim dividend up 43%.

What it means for BHP shares from here

The underlying business is in good shape.

FY26 revenue rose 15% to US$58.8 billion, underlying EBITDA rose 27% to US$32.9 billion, and underlying attributable profit rose 30% to US$13.2 billion.

Net debt fell to US$8.7 billion and the full-year dividend was 172 US cents fully franked.

Iron ore production reached 265 million tonnes at a unit cost of US$19.66 a tonne.

That is the lowest among the majors for a seventh straight year.

The obstacles are somewhat political.

The Federal Opposition has already objected to a Chinese stake in a major Western Australian iron ore mine, and foreign investment approvals in resources have tightened considerably.

No decision has been made and there is no certainty any transaction follows.

Foolish takeaway

BHP shares are up roughly 50% over twelve months and about 10% below the record high set on 26 August.

The broker consensus target of around $59 sits below the current price.

A lot of optimism is already priced in.

I would not buy on the Baowu headline alone, because it is speculation and it faces a potential political challenge.

What it does signal is that BHP has repaired the most important commercial relationship it has.

The post Why this news from China has changed the outlook for BHP shares appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Why I’d wait to buy BHP shares in superannuation
• How much do I need in my superannuation to earn $10,000 passive income every month?
• Why is everyone talking about China and BHP shares today?
• These ASX shares benefit from a high Aussie dollar
• This ASX 200 giant is up 37% in 2026. Is the pullback worth buying?

Motley Fool contributor Mark Verhoeven has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended BHP Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Investors looking for ideas over the next few months have a new list to work through.

UBS has released its latest “Top Picks” list, naming 10 ASX shares its analysts see as the most compelling opportunities over the next 3 to 6 months.

The list is selected from a wider pool of 30 stocks and is updated each month.

So, which ASX shares made the cut this time?

Resources and industrials are in hot demand

UBS says the August reporting season reinforced what it describes as a “capex over consumer” cycle.

The broker sees stronger conditions in areas benefiting from spending on data centres, mining, energy and defence, while consumer-facing parts of the market look less attractive.

Several of the stocks on the list fit that view.

They include Genesis Minerals Ltd (ASX: GMD), which finished Monday at $8.17, Mineral Resources Ltd (ASX: MIN) at $63.06, Orica Ltd (ASX: ORI) at $22.95 and Ventia Services Group Ltd (ASX: VNT) at $5.73.

UBS is currently overweight both the mining and industrial sectors.

Megaport Ltd (ASX: MP1) also makes the cut. The data centre connectivity company closed Monday at $17.13 after a strong run this year, up 45%.

The full UBS top 10

The rest of the list is a pretty much a mixed bunch.

Auckland International Airport Ltd (ASX: AIA) finished Monday at $6.99, while AMP Ltd (ASX: AMP) closed at $2.48.

Healthcare heavyweight CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL) ended the session at $173.18, while gaming company Light & Wonder Inc (ASX: LNW) finished at $125.30.

Sigma Healthcare Ltd (ASX: SIG) rounds out the list after closing Monday at $2.69.

That gives UBS a mix of mining, infrastructure, technology, healthcare, financial and consumer-related exposure.

It’s also worth remembering these are short-term picks, not necessarily the stocks UBS likes best over the next 5 or 10 years.

The list can change quickly as share prices and earnings expectations move on the daily.

What is UBS avoiding?

Just as interesting is where UBS is more cautious.

The broker isn’t keen on banks, consumer discretionary shares and real estate, with higher RBA interest rates and weaker sentiment making life tougher across those parts of the market.

UBS thinks that could lead to more earnings-per-share (EPS) downgrades in the months ahead.

That leaves the broker leaning more heavily towards companies exposed to business investment and infrastructure spending.

Of course, these are only 3-to-6-month picks, and UBS refreshes the list every month.

I’d be interested to see which of these 10 are still there next time around.

The post UBS names its 10 top ASX picks for the next 3-6 months appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Are CSL shares still cheap after almost doubling since June?
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Tuesday
• CSL led the ASX healthcare shares rebound. Can it continue?
• These ASX shares benefit from a high Aussie dollar
• Buy, hold, sell: Megaport, Xero, AMP shares

Motley Fool contributor Aaron Teboneras has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended CSL, Light & Wonder Inc, and Megaport. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended CSL and Light & Wonder Inc. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.