Superannuation has had an excellent run of late, and a rate rise this month would be the first real test of it.

The Reserve Bank of Australia meets on 29 September. Morgan Stanley expects a hike, which would be the first move higher in this cycle.

Most Australians will not think about what that means for their retirement savings. But given the implications, this question is worth five minutes of your time.

How your superannuation has actually performed

The average superannuation fund did well in FY26.

Chant West estimates the median growth fund returned around 9% in FY26, making it a fourth consecutive year of strong returns.

International listed shares did most of the heavy lifting.

Every asset class delivered a positive return over the year with the single exception of Australian real estate investment trusts.

It’s important to compare this performance to two broadly-held ASX market ETFs.

Vanguard Australian Shares Index ETF (ASX: VAS) tracks the S&P/ASX 300 Index across 321 securities for a fee of 0.07% a year.

The fund returned 5.79% over the year to 31 July 2026 and 8.92% annually across the past decade.

Vanguard Australian Shares High Yield ETF (ASX: VHY) is far more concentrated, holding 92 companies led by Commonwealth Bank, BHP Group and the other major banks.

Its forecast yield is 4.2%, or 5.5% once franking credits are counted, and it returned 17.87% over the year to 31 July 2026.

What a rate rise would actually do

The Reserve Bank held the cash rate at 4.35% on 11 August.

Its statement left little doubt about the direction of future interest rates.

The Board will continue to do what it considers necessary to bring inflation sustainably back to target, including increasing the cash rate target further if upside risks materialise.

However, not everyone agrees the move comes this month.

For example, Westpac chief economist Luci Ellis sees November as the more likely date.

A hike would hit a superannuation fund in three places.

Bond prices fall when yields rise, so the defensive part of your portfolio takes an immediate mark-to-market hit.

Australian real estate investment trusts and infrastructure assets are repriced lower, because their long-dated cash flows are worth less.

Bank shares face slower credit growth and higher deposit costs, and they are a very large part of the local index.

The parts of your superannuation that would hold up

Not everything suffers.

Cash and term deposit allocations earn more, which helps anyone in a conservative or pension-phase option.

Similarly, resources companies are largely driven by commodity prices rather than domestic rates.

And then there are global equities, which are the biggest single driver of most balanced funds, and which respond to United States policy far more than Australian policy.

What I would not do

Switching your superannuation to cash ahead of a possible rate rise is the classic mistake.

You crystallise any loss, you miss the recovery, and you have to be right twice to come out ahead.

For investors who care about long-term returns, time in the market is much more important than timing the market.

Foolish takeaway

A September rate rise would trim returns, not wreck them.

Bonds and rate-sensitive Australian shares would take the hit, while cash and global equities would cushion it.

If your superannuation sits in a default balanced option and you have twenty years to run, the correct response is almost certainly nothing at all.

If you are drawing an income and are heavily weighted toward bank shares, it may be worth checking your allocation.

Either way, the decision should reflect your time horizon, which is usually much longer term than a single rate decision.

The post Could a September rate hike hurt your superannuation returns? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Mark Verhoeven has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended BHP Group and Vanguard Australian Shares High Yield ETF. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

DUG Technology Ltd (ASX: DUG) has had an unremarkable year from a share price performance point of view, returning just 3% over the past 12 months.

But the team at Shaw and Partners is predicting bigger things for the company this year, and has a bullish price target on the shares, which I’ll get to shortly.

Shares fall on soft order book

The company’s shares fell more than 20% when they released their FY26 results recently, despite the company delivering a solid set of figures.

The oilfield software and services company’s revenue from customers came in at US$86.4 million, up 38% from the previous year, while net profit of US$2.6 million was up from a loss of US$4.4 million.

Commenting on the result, Managing Director Dr Matthew Lamont said:

FY26 was a record year for DUG. Revenue grew 38% and normalised EBITDA grew 78%, lifting our margin to 32% from 25%. We returned to profit and generated US$20.9 million of cash from operations. Earnings grew at twice the rate of revenue, which shows the operating leverage in this business. These results come from a long period of through-the-cycle investment rather than a single good year. Intellectual property is the centre of everything we do, and we now monetise it in four ways: services, software, HPC and multi-client. They are not separate businesses, they are different ways of selling the same core technology. We saw all of them perform extremely well during FY26 and we’re excited about the future of each business.

Dr Lamont said the industry was busier than it had been in years, with high oil prices driving increase in exploration budgets.

He added:

That means exploration in harder places, where imaging quality decides whether a prospect is drillable, which is precisely the problem we built our technology to solve. We enter FY27 within an energised industry, with a large pipeline of opportunities, a contracted software and HPC base, and a growing multi-client library. We’re excited for what lies ahead.

Broker says shares are looking oversold

Shaw and Partners noted that the company’s forward order book of US$33.6 million was down 35% year on year, but said that management attributed this largely to timing.

They added:

Management stressed that unlike previous periods when a falling order book created concern, internally there is currently optimism, with projects remaining in the pipeline rather than being lost and significant acquired seismic data still to flow into processing.

Shaw and Partners has a price target of $3 per share on DUG, which is significantly above the current share price of $1.63. The company is valued at $223.7 million.

The post Shaw and Partners says this ASX software company could rise 84% appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Cameron England has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Dug Technology. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Zip Co Ltd (ASX: ZIP) shares have suffered a tough 12 months. 

The buy now, pay later (BNPL) provider’s shares have swung wildly anywhere between $1.38 and $4.93 per share thanks to strong headwinds and fluctuating investor sentiment.

The ASX tech stock has faced several major headwinds over the past 12 months. 

The falling share price is mostly the result of a sector-wide sell-off of technology stocks. Investors were spooked by concerns about rising competition, slowing growth, and margin compression, and it caused a sharp sell-off through late-2025 and into early-2026.

This was exacerbated further by rising concerns around conflict in the Middle East. In early-2026, many investors rotated away from high-growth technology stocks and towards more stable assets.

A sharp increase in the value of some ASX tech shares in 2025, including Zip, also sparked concerns that tech companies were overvalued and overdue a price correction. 

Where are Zip shares trading now?

At the time of writing, Zip shares are up around 1% and changing hands at $2.53 a piece.

The increase means the shares are now around 24% lower for the year to date and down 41% from 12 months ago.

Are Zip shares too cheap to pass up?

Analysts are incredibly bullish on Zip shares, with widespread anticipation that we’ll see a significant upside over the next 12 months.

Market Index data shows all brokers agree on a strong buy rating, and the $3.95 target price implies around a 58% upside, at the time of writing.

TradingView data shows something similar. All 13 analysts have a buy/strong buy rating on the shares. The average $4.52 target price implies a potential 81% upside ahead, at the time of writing. Although some are confident that Zip shares can climb another 141% to $6.03 over the next 12 months.

UBS recently confirmed its buy rating and $4.70 target price on Zip shares. The broker said that the outlook for the current year was better than expected, providing comfort around the defensive qualities of the buy now, pay later business model through slowing economic times.

The team at Macquarie also agrees. The broker has a buy rating and $3.50 target price on the shares. Macquarie said “Zip’s outlook remains attractive as management executes the market opportunity in the US, supported by performance in AU”.

What is expected to drive the ASX tech shares higher this year?

Zip’s financial results have been strong through the past few quarters. Its latest full-year FY26 results announcement last month shows that growth has continued accelerating. The fintech business posted a huge 57.9% increase in its cash EBTDA. It also reported a 24.7% increase in total revenue, and a 45.7% hike in its NPAT for FY26.

The company also said it expects its cash EBTDA to climb even higher in FY27, by around 26% thanks to strong growth and greater scale across the business.

Zip has undergone a major reset over the past few years. It is now heavily concentrated on product growth and global expansion, especially in the US. It looks like this reset is finally translating to improved revenue and a boost in investor confidence.

Zip is currently pursuing a dual sharemarket listing on the Nasdaq in the US in the hope that it could help drive an even opportunity for business expansion in the area. 

The post Is it time to get greedy with Zip shares? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Samantha Menzies has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.