Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) shares are up around 2% to $8.28 at the time of writing.

Today’s increase means the shares have rebounded 8% over the past month and are up 35% for the year-to-date. The oil and gas major’s shares are also around 4% higher than 12 months ago.

Why are Santos shares climbing higher?

Santos shares have trended higher through 2026 so far as recurring tensions between the US and Iran continue to fuel concerns over global oil supplies and supported energy prices.

The shares spiked in February and March, around the time news first broke that conflict had escalated between the two nations. The shares continued climbing in value as the war heated up.

Rising oil prices were the main tailwind for Santos shares, as tight oil supply made prices highly volatile. 

But every time there is renewed optimism about a potential US-Iran peace agreement, the price of oil softens, and the Santos share price follows suit. In June and July the share price tumbled before rebounding again over the past month.

In mid-August, after the company posted its half-year FY26 results, Santos shares reached a multi-year high of $8.45 a piece.

The company reported a 2% year-on-year increase in sales revenue to US$2.62 billion. Production volumes were also higher, up 1.7% to 48 million barrels of oil equivalent (mboe).

But Santos also posted a 19% decline in its half-year statutory net profit after tax (NPAT), which fell to US$355 million. 

Santos also managed to generate free cash flow from operations from its strong base business performance.

The company is well placed to increase its production in the coming reporting periods, which could help boost earnings.

What do brokers tip for the ASX energy shares over the next 12 months?

Brokers are mostly bullish on Santos shares, with the majority tipping upside.

Market Index data shows all brokers have a strong buy rating on the shares. The $8.57 average target price implies an upside of around 3% over the next 12 months, at the time of writing.

Sentiment is similar on TradingView. The majority (13 out of 15) have a buy/strong buy rating on the shares. One rates Santos as a hold, and another rates it as a sell.

The $8.72 average target price implies a slightly higher 5% upside ahead, but some tip the shares to jump another 25% to $10.42 by this time next year.

Citi reaffirmed its buy rating on the ASX 200 energy share following its half-year update. The broker also increased its target price to $9, which is a little above the average.

Morgans maintained its hold rating on Santos shares following the announcement. The broker noted that the results beat estimates, but that it is impossible to quantify the risks posed by the Federal Government’s gas reservation policy ahead of its release. 

The post Santos shares rebound 8% in a month: Buy, sell or hold? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Samantha Menzies has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

ASX gold shares have had a strong month, and Morgan Stanley thinks investors may have another reason to keep watching the sector.

Aussie gold stocks have jumped 33.9% over the past month, lifting the sector’s weight in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) to around 6.1%.

The gold price has been doing a lot of the work. Spot gold is trading around US$4,456 an ounce at the time of writing, up almost 10% over the past month.

However, Morgan Stanley says the bigger story for miners could be the amount of cash they are set to generate.

Plenty more cash ahead

The broker expects the top 10 Australian gold miners to generate significantly more cash through to FY29.

If that plays out, companies could have more room to lift dividends, expand share buybacks, or strengthen their balance sheets.

Of course, a lot will depend on where the gold price goes next.

The market is currently pricing in a fairly big pullback, with consensus forecasts pointing to gold falling towards US$4,000 an ounce by FY29.

Morgan Stanley is more positive than that. Its commodities team expects gold to be around US$4,450 an ounce by late 2026 and believes it could trade above US$5,000 during 2027.

There are also some decent signs on the demand side.

According to The Australian, gold ETFs attracted around 70 tonnes across July and August, reversing the outflows seen in May and June.

Central banks have also stayed active, buying 345 tonnes in the first half of 2026, with China and Poland among the larger buyers.

If that demand holds up and gold prices stay around current levels, the cash flowing through the sector could remain pretty strong.

Northern Star is already returning cash

Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) shares are up 0.68% to $23.60 at the time of writing and have gained around 18.6% over the past month.

Its FY26 result showed what a higher gold price can do, with revenue rising 19% to $7.62 billion and underlying EBITDA increasing 22% to $4.27 billion.

Northern Star declared a fully-franked final dividend of 30 cents per share and has also started a $500 million on-market share buyback, with $129 million completed by the FY26 result.

However, the company is still spending heavily, with FY27 capital investment expected to reach $2.55 billion to $2.94 billion as the KCGM expansion ramps up.

Evolution has taken it further

Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) shares are up 0.24% to $14.915 and have climbed more than 32% over the past month.

The miner reported record FY26 group cash flow of $1.39 billion, up 76%, and increased its dividend payout target to around 60% of annual group cash flow.

That helped lift its full-year dividend to a record 41 cents per share.

Keep in mind that gold prices can still move quickly, particularly as interest rate expectations change.

But if Morgan Stanley is right, ASX gold miners could have a lot more cash to return to shareholders over the coming years.

The post ASX gold shares have surged 34% in a month. Morgan Stanley says this could come next appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Aaron Teboneras has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is heading lower again on Tuesday as investors start September on the back foot.

At the time of writing, the benchmark index is down 0.31% to 9,048 points after falling as low as 9,023 points earlier in the session. That briefly put the ASX 200 at its lowest level in around 2 weeks.

The weakness is fairly broad, with 105 of the top 200 shares falling, 84 rising, and 11 unchanged at the latest count.

So, what is behind today’s move?

Bond yields and rates are back in focus

Wall Street gave the ASX 200 a weak lead overnight, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index (DJX: .DJI) falling 0.7%, the S&P 500 Index (SP: .INX) dropping 0.33%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index (NASDAQ: .IXIC) slipping 0.12%.

Higher oil prices and rising bond yields didn’t help.

Brent crude moved back above US$90 a barrel as fighting between the US and Iran picked up again, adding to concerns that higher energy prices could keep inflation elevated.

Bond yields are also moving higher. Australia’s 10-year government bond yield has climbed to around 5.19%, its highest level in 15 years, while the US 10-year Treasury yield is above 4.75%.

Interest rates are also back in the conversation again.

ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: ANZ) now expects the RBA to lift the cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.60% in November, citing persistent inflation and resilient household spending.

That follows a stronger-than-expected July inflation report, while the latest ANZ-Roy Morgan survey showed consumer confidence falling 2.6 points to 74.9 last week.

Ex-dividend moves are adding to the decline

Part of today’s fall also comes down to several large ASX 200 shares trading ex-dividend.

That means investors buying the shares today won’t receive the latest dividend, which can see the share price fall by roughly the value of the payout.

Wesfarmers Ltd (ASX: WES) shares are down 3.89% to $76.35, Woolworths Group Ltd (ASX: WOW) shares have dropped 2.70% to $39.22, while Fortescue Ltd (ASX: FMG) shares are 2.03% lower at $17.34.

Resources are limiting the damage

It isn’t all red across the market, with higher commodity prices helping several large resource shares.

Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS) shares are up 1.85% to $33.02, and Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) shares have gained 2.21% to $8.32 as oil prices rise.

BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) shares are also 0.59% higher at $66.62, while Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO) shares have added 0.50% to $175.68.

That support has helped keep the ASX 200 above 9,000 points, after it briefly moved closer to that level earlier in the session.

The post The ASX 200 is falling again. What’s behind the sell-off? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Aaron Teboneras has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Wesfarmers. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended BHP Group and Wesfarmers. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.