BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) shares have been among the best-performing blue-chip stocks in the last year. 

However, after hitting yearly highs last week, they have started to fall, leaving investors scratching their heads at what to do next. 

A stellar run

BHP shares have risen strongly over the past 12 months. 

Since September last year, BHP shares are up an impressive 50%. 

A major driver of BHP’s rise has been its re-rating around copper, which has become an increasingly important and profitable part of the business. 

Copper prices have surged, supported by constrained global supply and strong structural demand from electrification, power infrastructure and AI data centres. 

BHP has also delivered record iron-ore production, roughly 2 Mt of copper production and strong cost control, allowing higher commodity prices to flow through to earnings.

BHP shares also received a boost following its earnings results.

The company reported a record US$32.9 billion underlying EBITDA (up 27%) and US$8.7 billion in dividends for shareholders.

In short, the market is increasingly viewing BHP not simply as an iron-ore miner but as a high-quality, cash-generative copper growth story, which has driven both stronger earnings expectations and a higher valuation.

These tailwinds took BHP shares to a record high of over $68 per share in late August. 

However, its share price has fallen roughly 5% since then.

Shareholders might now be wondering whether it’s time to take profits or hold for the long term. 

Here is what experts are saying. 

Mixed outlook 

Looking across the investment landscape, it appears most experts see BHP shares as fully rated. 

Of 17 forecasts from experts via TradingView, the average one year price target sits at $60.80. 

This would suggest BHP shares could dip a further 6% from current levels. 

On the bullish side, the highest one year target sits at just over $67 per share, while the lowest target sits at $43. 

Recent targets from notable brokers include: 

• Morgan Stanley has a one year target of $67.50
• Morgans sits at $55.30
• Deutsche Bank at $51.

Long-term upside 

While there appears to be little upside in the mid-term, blue-chip stocks like BHP hold long term value.

The company continues to generate substantial cash flow from its diversified portfolio, while its growing exposure to copper provides a potential structural tailwind as demand rises from electrification, data centres and the energy transition. 

In FY2026, copper contributed more than half of BHP’s underlying EBITDA for the first time, highlighting the commodity’s growing importance to the business.

BHP is also investing heavily in future growth, with a pipeline of copper projects expected to lift production significantly through to 2035, alongside the Jansen potash project, which is scheduled to begin production in 2027. 

At the same time, the company continues to return significant amounts of cash to shareholders, with FY26 dividends reaching their highest level in 4 years. 

The post BHP shares are falling – is it time to take profits? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Aaron Bell has positions in BHP Group. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended BHP Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

August was a rocky month for the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO). 

Some key ASX 200 players, including PLS Group Ltd (ASX: PLS) rebounded strongly throughout the month while others, such as National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB) and Wesfarmers Ltd (ASX: WES) came crashing down.

Let’s recap how the shares have tracked over the past month, and whether brokers rate them a buy, sell or hold now.

Hold NAB shares

August was a rough month for ASX bank shares, with many reversing much of their gains made earlier this year.

Key headwinds were concerns were higher-than-expected inflation data, renewed interest rate hike forecasts, falling mortgage demand, a weaker housing market, and tight competition squeezing margins.

NAB shares weren’t immune from the downturn. The major bank’s shares fell around 8% though the course of August and continued tumbling into September.

At the time of writing, NAB shares are $38.50 a piece, down around 9% for the year-to-date and nearly 10% lower than a year ago.

Brokers aren’t too sure where the bank stock could go next. Market Index data shows the majority have a hold rating on NAB shares. And the $39.88 average target price implies a potential 4% upside over the next 12 months, at the time of writing.

Buy PLS shares

NAB may have had a difficult month, but PLS shares have travelled in the opposite direction.

The lithium stock flew over 32% in August, rebounding strongly from a low in late July. And they kept climbing higher in early September too. At the time of writing, PLS shares are trading at $5.48. That’s a 27% increase year-to-date and a huge 126% hike from 12 months ago.

Investors have rushed to buy into the stock amid growing investor optimism that the lithium price recovery is improving, and this was rocketed higher again when the miner posted a strong FY26 result in mid-August.

PLS posted a 152% increase in revenue, a 59% increase in underlying EBITDA, and a swing into profit in NPAT (from a loss in the prior corresponding period).

The company has also announced a 5-cent-per-share, fully franked final dividend for FY26. This is great news for investors after PLS suspended its dividend payouts in 2024 amid crashing global lithium prices. 

It looks like the experts are also bullish that PLS shares could climb even higher. Market Index data shows the majority of brokers have a buy rating on the shares.

Although after the recent rally, the $5.47 average target price now implies a minor 0.2% upside at the time of writing.

Sell Wesfarmers shares

Wesfarmers shares were also pushed lower in August amid broad pressure on consumer and retail stocks, as well as concerns about inflation and interest rate increases.

The sell-off picked up pace after the conglomerate posted its FY26 results later in the month.

The company reported a 3.4% increase in revenue to $47.3 million and a 7.3% increase in EBIT. But statutory NPAT fell 1.8% to $2.8 million, including significant items, or was up 8.3% excluding them. 

Wesfarmers’ result came in slightly ahead of the market’s $47.1 billion forecasted revenue, and was in line with expectations for NPAT.

Going forward, Wesfarmers said it expects higher capital expenditure in FY27, of $1.3 to $1.5 billion. 

But investors were spooked, potentially because although the result was robust, it raises questions about how the business can continue growing in a weakening market.

Wesfarmers shares fell around 12% in August, and fell another 1.5% in the first day of trading in September, to $77.08 each. The shares are now down 6% for the year-to-date and are 15% lower than 12 months ago.

Brokers are bearish too. Market Index data shows the majority now have a strong sell rating on Wesfarmers shares. After the latest price crash, the $76.70 average target price now implies just 0.2% upside at the time of writing.

The post Buy, hold, sell: NAB, PLS Group, Wesfarmers shares appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Samantha Menzies has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Wesfarmers. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Wesfarmers. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

ASX shares have just been handed a piece of economic news that may finally come as a relief.

The Australian economy grew 0.4% in the June quarter.

Annual growth came in at 2.1%.

Both figures were above what economists expected.

Stronger growth is good for company earnings and yet somewhat awkward for anyone hoping interest rates stay where they are.

What the GDP numbers actually said

The details are important here.

Household spending rose 0.4% in the June quarter, which is steady without being strong.

The household saving ratio edged up to 6.5% from 6.4%.

GDP per capita increased 0.8% across the 2025-26 financial year.

Grace Kim, the ABS head of national accounts, was measured about the result.

Economic growth remained subdued in the June quarter as households continued to behave cautiously. While increased spending and business investment occurred in pockets of the economy, imports supported much of the growth, moderating its contribution to overall GDP growth.

Why stronger growth is bad news for some ASX shares

The Reserve Bank has been waiting for evidence that the economy can absorb tighter policy, and this is it.

ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: ANZ) already expects the Reserve Bank to lift the cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.60% in November, citing persistent inflation and resilient household spending.

Australia’s 10-year government bond yield has climbed to around 5.19%, its highest level in 15 years.

Higher discount rates compress the present value of every future dollar a company earns.

That is why long-duration ASX shares have struggled even as the growth data improved.

The banks are caught in the middle

Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) is the clearest example of the tension.

A stronger economy means fewer bad loans, and CBA’s 90-day arrears sit at just 0.73%.

A higher cash rate also widens deposit margins, which feeds directly into the 2.05% net interest margin reported in FY26.

The offset is credit growth, since home loan applications have fallen roughly 15% since the May Federal Budget.

At 24.36 times earnings and a 3.18% yield, very little of the good news is still available cheaply.

ANZ offers the same exposure on 19 times earnings with a 4.45% yield.

As a result of all of this, brokers unsurprisingly remain split on which of the major banks deserves to carry the sector premium from here.

Retail is where the real risk sits

JB Hi-Fi Ltd (ASX: JBH) is a slightly different narrative.

The company’s FY26 revenue rose 4.8% to $11,064.0 million, and net profit after tax climbed 6% to $489.9 million.

The total ordinary dividend increased 22.5% to 337 cents per share.

JB Hi-Fi Australia and The Good Guys both recorded a slight dip in sales during July.

Consumer confidence fell 2.6 points to 74.9 in the latest ANZ-Roy Morgan survey.

A November rate rise would land directly on the mortgage holders who buy televisions and laptops.

Which ASX shares benefit from faster growth

Miners, energy producers and insurers all earn more when activity holds up and inflation runs a little warm.

The losers are the ASX shares valued on distant cash flows and the retailers most exposed to household budgets.

Foolish takeaway

A 0.4% quarter is not a boom.

However, it is more than enough to keep a November rate rise firmly on the table.

CBA looks fully priced for the good news, ANZ looks like better value on the same theme, and JB Hi-Fi looks cheap for understandable reasons.

I would not rebuild a portfolio around a single quarter of national accounts.

But I would take very seriously what the bond market is now saying about the cost of money.

The post Australia’s economy just grew faster than expected. What does this mean for ASX shares? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

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Motley Fool contributor Mark Verhoeven has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.