NextDC Ltd (ASX: NXT) shares have fallen 14% over the past month, a strange result for a company that just tripled its contracted capacity.

The stock closed Tuesday at $12.52, down 23.28% over twelve months.

Goodman Group (ASX: GMG) has done no better, falling 19.03% over the same period.

Why NextDC shares have fallen while demand has not

Westpac moved its cash rate forecast to a November rise this week. One reason cited was the scale of investment in data centres and the renewable electricity they need.

That is an unusual situation.

The boom is now considered inflationary enough to justify tighter policy, yet the two ASX shares most exposed to it have been sold down hard.

That is because building data centres consumes enormous amounts of money before it produces any, and higher rates raise the cost of that money.

What NEXTDC actually reported

The FY26 result was the biggest in the company’s history.

Total revenue rose 16% to $496.5 million and net revenue rose 16% to $405.0 million, above guidance.

Underlying EBITDA lifted 15% to $248.8 million, also above guidance.

Statutory net profit swung to a positive $82.1 million from a $60.5 million loss.

The forward-looking numbers are the striking part.

Contracted utilisation surged 202% to 740.1 megawatts.

The forward order book stands at 565.1 megawatts, more than three times current billing utilisation.

Capital expenditure hit a record $3,397 million and pro forma liquidity rose 58% to $8.7 billion.

Chief executive Craig Scroggie set out what happens next.

FY26 was the largest contracting year in NEXTDC’s history. Contracted utilisation tripled to 740.1MW on a pro forma basis, and we exceeded guidance on both net revenue and Underlying EBITDA. Our Forward Order Book of 565MW is now more than 3.2 times our billing utilisation, and our focus is on delivering that capacity and converting it into revenue and cash inflow.

FY27 guidance calls for net revenue of $615 million to $640 million and underlying EBITDA of $385 million to $410 million.

That is growth above 50%.

But it also requires capital expenditure of $5.25 billion to $5.75 billion, which is the number that unsettles people.

Goodman is telling the same story

Goodman Group reported FY26 operating profit up 15.7% to $2.67 billion and operating earnings per security up 10.1% to 129.9 cents.

Work in progress reached $19.7 billion, and data centres now make up 78% of it.

Gearing is at just 6.5% with $6.4 billion of liquidity.

Group chief executive Greg Goodman described a market still short of supply.

Demand is structural across both logistics and data centres. Automation and robotics continue to drive logistics requirements while scarcity of power and land remains the key constraint on AI and cloud growth supporting data centre demand. Hyperscaler capex expectations continue to rise, with many customers facing undersupply into 2027 and 2028.

Goodman is targeting 9% operating earnings per security growth in FY27.

What I’d do with NextDC shares now

UBS has a buy rating on NextDC with a $23.45 target, implying 88% upside.

That is enormous upside, but it depends entirely on the company converting contracted megawatts into billed revenue on schedule.

The bear case is straightforward.

NextDC pays no dividend, trades on a price-to-earnings ratio above 100, and needs to spend more than $5 billion next year.

Goodman is the lower-risk way to own the same theme, with real earnings, a distribution and almost no debt.

Foolish takeaway

The AI data centre boom is not over, and the contracted numbers make that difficult to argue.

What has changed is the price investors will pay for growth funded by borrowed money.

I would own Goodman for the theme and NextDC only with a long investment horizon.

The post NextDC shares have fallen 14% in a month. Is the AI data centre boom over? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Mark Verhoeven has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Goodman Group. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Goodman Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Reporting season is all but over, which means the brokers have had plenty of time to mull over the results and reassess which companies they think are undervalued at current prices.

I’ve selected three major companies that brokers have put a buy rating on over the past week or so.

Let’s see who they like.

Qantas Ltd (ASX: QAN)

The team at Morgan Stanley liked what they saw from the Qantas result and believes the national carrier can continue to perform.

They have called the pick one of their “highest conviction Australian industrials ideas”, with a bullish price target to go along with it.

Why do they like the stock? In their own words:

The FY26 result reinforced our view that QAN can offset near term fuel pressure through pricing and capacity actions, while International earnings potential remains underappreciated. We see improving earnings quality, resilient demand and a clearer path to higher International margins.

Morgan Stanely said the airline was trading below the valuation level of its international peers by about 20%, despite its high returns.

The broker noted that there was some risk that jet fuel prices would remain elevated and fares would fail to offset the increase.

Morgan Stanely has a price target of $12.80 on Qantas shares.

Brambles Ltd (ASX: BXB)

UBS has had a look at information such as Nielsen data on fast-moving consumer goods sales to get a handle on the sort of demand Brambles might be enjoying.

The data is mixed, with US food and beverage sales down less than 1% from June to August, while European volumes were up 5% year on year in July.

In terms of the impact on Brambles’ CHEP business, volumes were up 1% in the second half of FY26, “with -2% like-for-like volume more than offset by net new business wins”.

UBS said Brambles is currently trading at a discount to the ASX industrials, not including health and financials.

The broker’s price target on Brambles is $24.50.

Pexa Group Ltd (ASX: PXA)

Property sales compliance platform Pexa is likely to be affected by the decline in property transactions resulting from the Federal Government’s changes to capital gains tax and negative gearing rules.

Macquarie’s recent research report on Pexa indicates that settlement activity in New South Wales and Queensland did indeed fall sharply in August compared with the same month a year ago.

The broker has not changed its price target on Pexa, however, meaning recent share price weakness theoretically means more upside for investors.

Macquarie’s price target on Pexa is $13.90. Pexa is currently valued at $1.33 billion.

The post 3 ASX 200 shares tipped to return 27% to 87% appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Cameron England has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Index of Consumer Sentiment fell 5.2% in September to 84.4.

Any reading below 100 means pessimists outnumber optimists.

However, some ASX shares actually do better when households run out of confidence.

Why consumer sentiment is important for ASX shares

Assessments of family finances dropped 9.2%, and among homeowners the fall reached 13%.

Nearly two-thirds of consumers now expect mortgage rates to rise within twelve months.

The report stated the following of the cause:

The fall takes sentiment back towards the deeply pessimistic levels seen earlier in the year. Both fuel prices and interest rates again look to be driving the move.

Consumer discretionary shares were the worst sector on the ASX on Tuesday, falling 1.88%.

Trouble right? Well, the businesses that sell things households cannot easily cancel are in a different position entirely.

Woolworths sells everyday fundamentals

Woolworths Group Ltd (ASX: WOW) is the most obvious beneficiary on the market.

People trade down within a supermarket, but they do not stop buying groceries.

FY26 showed this phenomenon in action.

Group sales rose 3.6% to $71.54 billion and earnings before interest and tax before significant items climbed 12.7% to $3.11 billion.

Net profit before significant items jumped 15.4% to $1.60 billion.

The Australian Food business lifted sales 4.6% and EBIT 8.5%, while BIG W returned to profit after a loss.

Group eCommerce sales grew 15.9% to $10.6 billion and the final fully franked dividend rose 15.6% to 52 cents.

Chief executive Amanda Bardwell was clear about the challenges facing the company:

Looking ahead, while we expect the challenging economic environment to continue with household budgets remaining under pressure, our strategy to deliver low prices and the best range and convenience gives us confidence we can be first choice for customers while delivering for our team and shareholders in the year ahead.

Telstra sells the second last thing to be cut

Telstra Group Ltd (ASX: TLS) is on the same side of the coin.

That is because nobody cancels their mobile plan because the Reserve Bank raised rates.

FY26 revenue actually fell 0.8% to $22.94 billion, which sounds unimpressive until you look further down.

Underlying net profit after tax rose 4.9% to $2.5 billion and cash earnings per share climbed 14% to 25.5 cents.

Underlying EBITDA after leases increased 4% to $8.3 billion, and management guided FY27 to between $8.5 billion and $8.8 billion.

Mobile income grew 3% to $11.4 billion.

The dividend is the attraction here.

Telstra lifted its full-year payout 10.5% to 21 cents and announced a buyback of up to $1 billion.

At $4.79 that is a yield of about 4.4%, or roughly 6% once franking credits are counted.

Foolish takeaway

Defensive ASX shares are not exciting, and they are not supposed to be.

But what they do is keep earning while the discretionary end of the market repriced 1.88% lower in a single session.

I find Telstra the better value of the two today, purely because Woolworths has already been rerated.

The mistake would be buying either one expecting them to rise when sentiment recovers.

The post Consumer sentiment is low. These ASX shares stand to benefit appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Mark Verhoeven has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Telstra Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.