Europe’s latest oil problem might feel a long way from Australia.

But I wouldn’t be so quick to ignore it.

Saudi Arabia has been forced to cut some crude shipments to Europe after drone attacks damaged its East-West Pipeline.

That pipeline carries oil from the kingdom’s eastern fields to the Red Sea.

The route has become especially important because it allows Saudi crude to bypass the Strait of Hormuz.

However, that backup route has now been shut off.

And while Australia doesn’t rely heavily on Saudi oil, we could still end up feeling the impact here.

Europe is already scrambling

Saudi Aramco has reportedly cancelled some September cargoes to European customers, while others have been delayed.

Polish refiner Orlen responded by securing 16 replacement crude cargoes from suppliers including Norway, Algeria, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and the Americas.

That shows us just how quickly buyers are having to look elsewhere. And the more refiners chasing replacement barrels, the more competition there is for the same supply.

Brent crude is still trading above US$100 per barrel after jumping earlier this week, although prices have pulled back from their recent highs.

One reason is that Saudi Arabia has found another way to move some of its oil.

The kingdom has been offering more crude to Asian refiners through ship-to-ship transfers near Oman, while loadings from Saudi Gulf ports have increased.

Could Australia feel it next?

Yes, but the impact here won’t necessarily be fuel shortages.

Australia imports fuel from a number of countries across the Asia-Pacific. Its two remaining refineries in Brisbane and Geelong produced around 20% of the country’s annual fuel needs in 2025.

That means Australia isn’t in the same position as European refiners trying to replace lost Saudi supply.

The bigger risk for us is price.

Most of our imported refined fuel comes from Asia, while local petrol and diesel prices are heavily influenced by Singapore fuel benchmarks and the Aussie dollar.

So, if higher crude prices push fuel prices up across Asia, Australian motorists could end up paying more at the pump.

And it may not take very long.

The ACCC says changes in international benchmark prices can take around 2 weeks to flow through to fuel prices in Australian cities.

We have some breathing room

Australia does at least have some protection if the situation gets worse.

During the June quarter, our fuel stocks averaged around 44 days of petrol, 36 days of diesel, and 31 days of jet fuel.

The government is also working towards a one-billion-litre strategic fuel reserve, along with higher minimum stockholding requirements.

So, I don’t think Australia is about to run out of fuel any time soon.

But if the problems in the Middle East drag on, Australians will end up paying more at the petrol station.

The post Saudi oil crisis is about to hit Europe, could Australia be next? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Aaron Teboneras has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is finally having a better day on Thursday, although it has already given back some of its early gains.

At the time of writing, the ASX 200 is up 0.39% to 8,730 points after climbing as high as 8,787 points earlier in the session.

That puts the index a little further away from Tuesday’s intraday low of 8,657 points, but there’s still plenty of damage to repair.

The benchmark remains down 4.22% over the past month, while trading around 6% below its 52-week high of 9,296 points.

So, is this another short-lived bounce or can the rally keep going?

Bank shares drive the rebound

The big four banks are doing plenty of the work today.

Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) shares are up 1.29% to $153.49, while National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB) shares have climbed 1.96% to $38.77.

Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC) shares are 1.63% higher at $34.99, and ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: ANZ) shares are up 1.78% to $37.67.

There is some help coming from healthcare as well, with CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL) shares rising 1.41% to $176.86.

The gains are reasonably widespread, too.

At the latest check, 109 ASX 200 stocks are rising, compared with 84 falling and 7 unchanged.

The next few sessions will tell us more

Today’s bounce is encouraging, but I’d be a little careful about reading too much into one session just yet.

Wall Street finished lower overnight after the US Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75% to 4%.

It was the Fed’s first-rate hike since July 2023.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average Index (DJX: .DJI) fell 1.21%, while the S&P 500 Index (SP: .INX) dropped 0.45%.

The Fed also left the door open to further rate hikes as it continues trying to get inflation back towards its 2% target.

There is plenty happening locally as well.

The RBA cash rate is currently 4.35% after three hikes in 2026, with its next interest rate decision due on 29 September.

Energy stocks are also weighing on the market today as oil prices pull back.

Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS) shares are down 1.95% to $32.62, while Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) shares have fallen 2.92% to $8.48.

Foolish takeaway

Today’s rebound is a welcome change, but I don’t think it tells us much on its own.

The ASX 200 was more than 1% higher earlier this morning before giving back a decent chunk of that gain. That shows buyers are not completely in control just yet.

I’d be more interested to see whether the index can string together a few positive sessions and work its way back above 8,800 points.

The post ASX 200 rebounds from recent lows. Is this just another false start? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Aaron Teboneras has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended CSL. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended CSL. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) has climbed higher again on Thursday morning, up around another 0.5%. The increase is great news after the index suffered consecutive declines over the past month. And now many investors are focused on ASX 200 shares that can continue climbing higher from here.

Here are three ASX 200 shares that broker forecasts suggest could jump up to 40% over the next 12 months.

Qantas Airways Ltd (ASX: QAN)

The ASX 200 airline shares were smashed lower earlier this year as conflict in the Middle East and rising fuel prices put airlines under pressure. There was a brief rebound around July, but recent renewal of geopolitical tensions has seen the share price tumble again over the past month.

Jet fuel (refined from crude oil) is the highest operating cost for airlines. That means that when oil prices increase amid tight supply and geopolitical tensions, jet fuel prices also jump. And this means that airlines, such as Qantas, face higher operating costs.

But despite the higher fuel costs, the company expects to see unit revenues grow by 8% to 10% in the first half of FY27.

And the experts appear to be bullish that the ASX 200 shares could be a turnaround story for FY27. Market Index data shows all brokers have a strong buy rating on Qantas shares. And the $11.31 average target price implies a potential 30% upside at the time of writing.

Paladin Energy Ltd (ASX: PDN)

Paladin Energy shares are rebounding on Thursday after a steep selloff over the past week.

The decline is likely due to a number of factors. These include geopolitical uncertainty and a drop in confidence for ASX uranium shares.

Renewed conflict in the Middle East, higher inflation data, and concerns about more interest-rate rises has seen some investors reduce their exposure to higher risk shares.

But despite the latest investor loss of confidence and share price declines, it looks like the experts are still very bullish about the outlook for Paladin Energy shares over the next 12 months.

Market Index data shows the majority of brokers still have a buy rating on the ASX 200 shares. At the $12.83 average target price implies an upside of around 35% at the time of writing.

CAR Group Ltd (ASX: CAR)

Shares in the ASX 200 technology company, which runs online global marketplaces for cars, motorcycles, boats and commercial vehicles, have tumbled around 20% over the past month.

The company has been hit by broad market volatility and investors taking their gains off the table after a rally following its FY26 results last month.

CAR Group’s FY26 results overall were positive. It reported FY26 revenue of $1.253 billion, up 6%, and NPAT of $314 million, up 14% on the prior year. Reported adjusted EBITDA was up 8% to $667 million. 

And looking ahead to FY27, CAR Group said it expects revenue growth of 11% to 14% and adjusted EBITDA growth of 10% to 13% on a constant currency basis. The company also plans for high single-digit revenue growth in Australia and double-digit growth in North America, Latin America and Asia.

The shares spiked around 10% on the day of the announcement, but have since tumbled back towards an annual low. 

But broker forecasts suggest the selloff was overdone and that the shares have the potential to rebound in the near future. Market Index data shows all brokers have a strong buy rating on the ASX 200 shares. And the $33.64 average target price implies an upside of around 40% at the time of writing.

The post 3 ASX 200 shares forecast to fly 30% to 40% higher appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Samantha Menzies has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended CAR Group Ltd. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.