Gold shares delivered the standout month of the Australian reporting season.

Morgan Stanley calculates that the sector rose 34% across August.

The gold price then fell 2.9% on Friday night to US$4,529.90 an ounce.

Traders were reacting to rising expectations of United States interest rate hikes, so the question that remains is whether September can continue August’s good momentum.

Why gold shares ran so hard

Gold spent most of August trading around US$4,500 an ounce.

At that level, the economics of an Australian gold mine look extraordinary.

My colleagues noted that the conversation has shifted away from the gold price itself and toward cash flow, balance sheets and dividends.

That is what a maturing sector looks like, however, any future gains may be harder to come by.

Northern Star: a record year with a warning attached

Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) is the largest of the ASX gold shares and the clearest illustration of the problem at hand.

The company’s FY26 result delivered revenue of $7.6 billion, underlying EBITDA of $4.3 billion and underlying net profit after tax of $1.8 billion.

The company sold 1.54 million ounces at an all-in sustaining cost of $2,698 an ounce.

Lastly, the full-year dividend rose to 55 cents per share.

Then you reach the cash flow statement.

Underlying free cash flow was just $190 million, because capital spending at KCGM has hit its peak.

FY27 guidance sharpens the point further, with production of 1.5 million to 1.65 million ounces expected at an all-in sustaining cost of $3,050 to $3,450 an ounce.

That is a rise of several hundred dollars an ounce in a single year.

There is a leadership change to absorb as well.

Stuart Tonkin stepped down as managing director on 28 August, with Ryan Gurner serving as interim chief executive until Suresh Vadnagra takes over on 5 October.

Capricorn Metals: the low-cost alternative

Capricorn Metals Ltd (ASX: CMM) is a fraction of Northern Star’s size. The company produced a record 123,589 ounces in FY26 at an all-in sustaining cost of $1,629 an ounce.

Cash costs before royalties were only $1,251 an ounce.

Cash and gold holdings stood at $507 million, and the company declared a fully franked final dividend of 5 cents per share in late August.

FY27 should be bigger.

Capricorn is guiding to 137,000 to 147,000 ounces as the Karlawinda expansion is commissioned, heading toward a 150,000 ounce annual run rate.

Costs are expected to rise to between $1,900 and $2,100 an ounce, which is still well below Northern Star’s guidance.

Behind that is Mt Gibson, where reserves now stand at 5.2 million ounces and federal environmental approval has been granted.

What could end the run in gold shares

Two things would do it.

The first is a sustained fall in the gold price, and the rate hike expectations driving Friday’s move are a genuine risk.

Higher real interest rates make a non-yielding asset less attractive, and gold has always been sensitive to that.

The second is cost inflation, which the FY27 guidance from both companies already flags clearly.

Foolish takeaway

A 34% month is most likely not repeatable, and I would not buy this sector expecting one.

What has changed is that the better operators are now generating real cash and paying real dividends.

Capricorn looks like the more disciplined business on cost, while Northern Star offers scale and a much larger production base.

Both need the gold price to hold somewhere near current levels to justify their FY27 spending plans.

For investors who want exposure, gold shares are worth owning as a portfolio hedge.

The post ASX gold shares soared 34% in August. Is the run over? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Mark Verhoeven has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: ANZ) share price is trading around $37.20 on Tuesday.

At that level, I would not describe the big four bank as obviously cheap.

But I think there is enough on offer to make the shares attractive, particularly for investors looking for income.

A fair price for a major bank

According to CommSec, consensus estimates put ANZ’s earnings per share at $2.57 in FY26 and $2.55 in FY27.

That means the shares are trading on a PE ratio of around 14.5 times forecast earnings.

For me, that sits closer to fair value than bargain territory.

The earnings forecasts are also essentially flat, so I would not buy ANZ expecting rapid profit growth over the next couple of years.

But that does not make the investment unattractive.

ANZ remains one of Australia’s largest banks, with substantial operations across retail, business, and institutional banking. Its scale gives it access to a large customer and deposit base, while its business mix provides several sources of earnings.

I think paying a reasonable multiple for that kind of established banking franchise can still produce a worthwhile result over time.

Income is a bigger part of the case

The dividend is where ANZ becomes more interesting to me.

Consensus forecasts are for dividends of $1.66 per share in both FY26 and FY27.

At the current ANZ share price, that equates to a forward dividend yield of around 4.5%.

These payments are expected to be partially franked, rather than fully franked, so investors should keep that in mind when comparing ANZ with other Australian banks.

Still, I think the cash yield itself is attractive.

Further, the expected payment is comfortably below projected earnings per share. That gives me more confidence in the sustainability of its dividend than I would have if the bank were distributing nearly everything it earned.

Risks

There are risks to consider, of course. Competition remains intense in the banking sector, credit losses can rise if economic conditions deteriorate, and bank margins can move as interest rates and funding costs change.

Those considerations are another reason I would not call ANZ shares cheap at $37.20.

Foolish takeaway

I think the current ANZ share price offers fair value rather than an obvious bargain.

That is still enough for me to consider the shares a buy.

The near-term earnings outlook is subdued, but investors are getting exposure to a large banking franchise alongside a forecast dividend yield of around 4.5%.

For income-focused investors who are comfortable with relatively modest growth expectations, I think ANZ looks like a worthwhile option in September.

The post Is the ANZ share price good value in September? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• 3 top ASX dividend shares to target in September 
• How much must I invest in ANZ shares to earn $1,000 in passive income in 2027?
• The 2 top yielding ASX 200 bank stocks revealed (Hint: Not CBA shares)
• Are ASX bank shares a buy in September?
• How much passive income can I earn off a $1 million superannuation balance?

Motley Fool contributor Grace Alvino has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The Vanguard MSCI Index International Shares ETF (ASX: VGS) is one of the ASX exchange-traded funds (ETFs) I would be comfortable owning for a very long time.

It gives investors access to a huge collection of global businesses through one investment, while keeping the strategy simple.

For me, that makes the VGS ETF a strong buy and hold option.

Global exposure in one investment

The VGS ETF invests across major developed markets outside Australia.

That gives investors exposure to the US as well as countries across Europe and Asia, spreading the investment across a much larger part of the global economy.

I think that is particularly valuable for Australian investors.

The ASX has some excellent companies, but many major global industries are better represented overseas. Software, semiconductors, global consumer brands, healthcare, industrial technology, and digital services are all areas where international markets offer far more choice.

The VGS ETF opens the door to those opportunities without requiring investors to research companies across dozens of countries.

It does not depend on one winner

Another reason I like the VGS ETF is that the long-term result does not rest on getting a handful of stock picks right.

The fund owns a large collection of companies, and their importance within the portfolio can change as markets evolve.

Some of today’s biggest businesses may continue growing for decades. Others could eventually lose ground to companies that are much smaller today.

With the VGS ETF, investors do not need to know in advance which ones will come out on top.

I think that is a strong feature when your investment holding period could stretch across 10, 20, or even 30 years.

It can complement Australian shares

I would also consider the VGS ETF alongside Australian investments rather than viewing it as a replacement for them.

Many ASX portfolios naturally end up with significant exposure to banks, resources, and domestic businesses.

Adding the VGS ETF can introduce companies operating in industries and markets that are less prominent locally.

It also means the portfolio is not relying entirely on the Australian economy.

For investors who already pick individual ASX shares, I think this can be an easy way to add international diversification without building a separate overseas portfolio one company at a time.

Foolish takeaway

The VGS ETF gives me access to opportunities around the world without requiring constant decisions.

I could buy it today, add more money over time, and let the underlying portfolio change as global markets develop.

For investors looking for a simple international investment they can potentially hold for decades, I think the VGS ETF is a strong choice.

The post Why I think the VGS ETF is a strong buy and hold pick appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Are these 2 top Vanguard ETFs still worth buying today?
• How to build an ASX portfolio you do not need to check every day
• 3 ASX ETFs to buy for simple investing
• VGS vs VHY: Which Vanguard ETF comes out on top?
• Why every Aussie investor should own one of these ASX ETFs

Motley Fool contributor Grace Alvino has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Vanguard Msci Index International Shares ETF. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.