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Buying S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) energy shares?

Then I don’t have to tell you how much the oil price can impact the share prices of companies like Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS), Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) and Beach Energy Ltd (ASX: BPT).

As markets are generally forward-looking, ASX 200 energy shares also tend to rise and fall based on the forecast outlook for global oil prices.

Now, Woodside, Santos, and Beach Energy also produce gas. While the gas price doesn’t move in lockstep with the oil price, the two tend to trend in the same direction over the medium term.

With that said, here’s the latest forecast from the International Energy Agency (IEA).

What’s been happening with the oil price?

As a quick recap, Brent crude oil prices kicked off 2024, trading for US$76 per barrel. The oil price then marched higher through 5 April amid rising conflict in the Middle East, when Brent crude topped US$91 per barrel.

Over the past five weeks, the oil price has retraced, with Brent fetching US$83 per barrel at market close on Thursday.

The net impact has been mixed for ASX 200 energy shares, which have each had their own company specific issues to deal with as well.

Here’s how they’ve been tracking year to date:

• Santos shares are flat
• Woodside shares are down 11.22%
• Beach Energy shares are up 4.91%

What can ASX 200 energy shares expect from global oil demand in 2024?

As for what lies ahead, the IEA has scaled back its 2024 oil demand growth forecast by 140,000 barrels per day since last month’s report. The agency now expects global oil demand to increase by an average of 1.1 million barrels per day over the full year.

While that may not be great news for investors in ASX 200 energy shares, it’s worth noting that the IEA still forecasts global oil demand will come in at an all-time high of 103.2 million barrels per day in 2024.

On the supply side, the IEA projects global supplies will ramp up by 580,000 barrels per day to 102.7 million barrels per day, also a new record high.

Assuming that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies (OPEC+) extend its voluntary cuts through to the end of the year, the agency expects OPEC+ production to drop by 840,000 barrels per day in 2024. But that will be more than compensated by an expected 1.4 million barrel per day increase from nations outside the cartel.

One of the wild cards that could see demand higher or lower than forecast remains the path of interest rates, particularly from the US Federal Reserve. Lower rates sooner than forecast, could fuel energy use among households and businesses worldwide.

“Recent macro data from the US has raised expectations that the Fed could start cutting rates soon, which will be providing some support to oil,” said Warren Patterson (quoted by Bloomberg).

Looking at what could impact ASX 200 energy shares further down the road, the IEA said, “Our global outlook for 2025 is largely unchanged, with the pace of growth now marginally eclipsing 2024 at 1.2 million barrels per day.”

The post Buying ASX 200 energy shares? Here’s the latest IEA oil forecast appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Thursday
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• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Tuesday

Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The post Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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• Why is this ASX 200 stock surging despite a $500 million writedown?
• Why Aristocrat Leisure, Graincorp, Incitec Pivot, and Patriot Battery Metals are rising today
• Guess which ASX 200 stock is surging 11% on an ‘outstanding’ result
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Thursday
• Own Xero shares? Here’s what to expect from next week’s results

Motley Fool contributor Sebastian Bowen has positions in A2 Milk. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Netwealth Group and Xero. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Netwealth Group and Xero. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended A2 Milk. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

There’s an ASX 300 stock on the markets today that one could accurately describe as a fallen star. This particular ASX 300 stock had an incredible runup over the last few months of 2022 and into 2023, rising from around $2 a share to a high of almost $9.

But ever since, it has been down, down and down for this company. Today, its shares finished trading at $2.43, a drop of 1.25% for the day. That’s after the company hit a new 52-week low of just $2.16 a share this morning. At that price, the ASX 300 stock was down 62% from where it was 12 months ago.

This fallen star share is none other than ASX 300 tech stock Weebit Nano Ltd (ASX: WBT). Check out its dramatic rises and falls over the past few years below:

Given where this ASX 300 stock has been in the recent past, and where it is now, many investors might be wondering whether this steep fall from grace represents a buying opportunity for Weebit Nano shares. After all, if the company can get back even close to where it was just a year ago, investors would be in line for some healthy profits.

Is this fallen star ASX 300 stock a buy today?

Well, unfortunately for Weebit Nano investors, I can’t say that I think it is. Weebit’s recent share price drop hasn’t come out of nothing. Back in February, the company revealed some pretty dire numbers in its half-year results. For the six months to 31 December, Weebit Nano announced that it pulled in just $153,000 in revenues, which led the company to an overall loss of $25.2 million for the period.

Bear in mind that this is a company that still has a market capitalisation of $452.66 million today. In a quarterly market update last month, the company stated that it had $67.8 million in cash as of 31 March. If Weebit continues to bleed money at the rate that it did over the six months to 31 December, this implies that it has less than 18 months until it runs out of money.

Sure, the company is making some interesting inroads in developing its ReRAM chips, which it hopes will have automotive applications.

However, even though I’m no semiconductor expert, it’s hard to see an investment in Weebit Nano as anything other than a moonshot.

A lot would have to go right for Weebit to get to a place of financial strength. But not much has to go wrong to make this a potentially money-losing investment from here. So no, I won’t be buying Weebit Nano shares today, despite its steep falls over the past year or two.

The post ASX 300 fallen star down 62% in a year hits new 52-week low: Time to buy? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Sebastian Bowen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) share price is the only Big Four bank solidifying a fresh all-time high today of $122.55, up 2.1%. That’s despite other banking majors outpacing the return on CommBank shares.

While many analysts have repeatedly labelled Australia’s largest bank as ‘overvalued‘ or ‘extremely expensive,’ the rally continues — a rally that began in November last year and tracked along a largely uninterrupted trend until last month.

Undeterred, CBA shares have bounced back, reaching this new price milestone.

However, the Aussie bank reported a 5% slump in its unaudited statutory net profit after tax only a week ago. So, how does the CBA share price set a record high soon after that dreary news?

Budget keeps the good times rolling

The Commonwealth Bank of Australia has not made a price-sensitive announcement since its March quarter trading update. Hence, there is no new information to instigate increased buying of CBA shares today.

Lacking any company releases, we must broaden our search on what might influence investors’ appetite.

On Tuesday, the Government released the 2024-25 Australian Federal Budget. How the Federal Government plans to spend its money can have meaningful implications for the economy and Australian businesses.

Perhaps investors believe some planned budgetary expenditures will benefit CommBank and its peers. After all, banks tend to perform better throughout economic growth than retraction. As such, the $300 energy bill relief for every household might be seen as oil for the economic wheel.

Likewise, additional tax relief for low and middle-income earners suggests less economic pressure. Less pressure could mean CBA won’t be whacked with a substantial rise in arrears, a common side effect of increased unemployment due to a softening economy.

In CBA’s trading update last week, cost-of-living pressures were highlighted as a cause of increasing arrears. At that time, management noted its expectation of further worsening arrears during the coming months.

Post-budget, those fears may be somewhat allayed for shareholders.

Inflation and the CBA share price

Nearly everyone wants a well-coordinated ‘soft landing’ as interest rates stifle inflation. The danger for the economy — and banks — is an overly restrictive monetary policy that tightens too far. That’s why investors welcome recent news about inflation in Australia and the United States.

Last night, US monthly inflation was 3.4%, down from the 3.5% reported for March. Likewise, Australia’s treasurer, Jim Chalmers, forecasts Australia’s inflation rate will fall below 3% before the year ends.

It paints a rosy picture of the future.

Bank share investors might be seeing the dark clouds lift. As a result, improved optimism is likely flowing through to the CBA share price.

Shares in the Aussie bank have risen 25% over the past year. It currently trades at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 20 times earnings.

The post Why is the CBA share price setting a new all-time high today? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Mitchell Lawler has positions in Commonwealth Bank Of Australia. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The Incitec Pivot Ltd (ASX: IPL) share price has certainly caught the eye of investors on Thursday.

In afternoon trade, the ASX 200 stock is up almost 6% to $2.99.

Why is this ASX 200 stock surging?

Investors have been bidding the fertiliser and commercial explosives company’s shares higher today following the release of its half year results.

For the six months ended 31 March, Incitec Pivot posted a net loss after tax including individually material items (IMIs) of $148 million. This is down from a $354 million profit in the prior corresponding period.

The ASX 200 stock advised that this includes IMIs totalling $312 million after tax. This relates primarily to a $498 million non-cash impairment of the fertilisers business, which was partially offset by a gain on the sale of IPL’s ammonia manufacturing facility in Waggaman, Louisiana.

However, investors appear to be focusing more on the company’s underlying performance during the half, which was actually very strong despite its loss.

Incitec Pivot revealed that it delivered underlying EBIT growth of 18% compared to the prior corresponding period after adjusting for re-basing items. Management advised that this reflects growth in all customer-facing businesses, including record first half EBIT for the Dyno Nobel Asia Pacific business and the Fertilisers Distribution business.

Pleasingly for shareholders, the loss after tax didn’t stop the company from declaring an unfranked interim dividend of 4.3 cents per share.

Management commentary

The ASX 200 stock’s CEO and managing director, Mauro Neves, was pleased with the half. He commented:

Our Dyno Nobel and Incitec Pivot Fertilisers businesses have delivered strong underlying earnings performances across the first half, with record first half results in Dyno Nobel Asia Pacific and our Fertilisers Distribution businesses.

Our headline result reflects major restructuring in our asset portfolio across both the Dyno Nobel and Incitec Pivot Fertilisers businesses. After re-basing for these items, and movements in commodities and foreign exchange rates, underlying earnings were up 18%, with growth in all customer-facing businesses. This is a testament to the hard work of our teams across our businesses and reflects a solid platform for future growth.

Outlook

Management advised that it is focused on delivering continued earnings momentum in its customer-facing businesses in the second half of FY 2024. It is also progressing its strategy of transforming the global explosives business to unlock its full potential and deliver improved returns to shareholders.

However, no guidance has been provided for the full year with today’s results.

The post Why is this ASX 200 stock surging despite a $500 million writedown? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The conventional wisdom on the ASX exchange-traded fund (ETF) landscape is that index funds offer investors the lowest fees. Amongst all ETFs on the Australian markets, the lowest charging are all index funds that cover either ASX or American indexes.

Of course, not all ASX ETFs are passive index funds. However, actively managed ETFs that offer exposure to concentrated, thematic portfolios or curated selections of shares tend to charge far higher annual management fees.

This logically makes sense. After all, all index funds have to do is mirror the benchmark index they happen to track – a process that is now almost entirely automated. Actively managed funds, however, need to employ analysts, portfolio managers and other expensive outlays.

Well, this week, that conventional wisdom is out the window. That’s thanks to a new suite of ETFs from Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG).

Macquarie has just launched two new actively managed ETFs on the Australian share market. However, you wouldn’t know it from the fees these new funds are charging.

Macquarie introduces new, low-fee ASX ETFs

First up is the Macquarie Core Australian Equity Active ETF (ASX: MQAE). This new fund draws “around” 200 investments from the S&P/ASX 300 Index (ASX: XKO). These stocks are chosen after all eligible investments are “continually assessed for the most robust and least correlated sources of return”.

Macquarie uses a mix of data, risk and fundamental analysis to actively “fine-tune” its portfolio of stocks to deliver a return above an ASX index fund ideally.

Here’s how the company described this approach:

The Macquarie Systematic Investments machine is constantly scanning the market with one eye on the future, with inputs continuously being updated and the signals utilised fine-tuned to seek potential trades.

Macquarie’s dedicated in-house quantitative team are continually analysing the market in search of new ways to identify attractive stock characteristics, which are distilled into specific signals. Currently, the signal set is over 60 signals, and all are applied to the 300 ASX stocks and around 1,400 global equities for these active ETFs.

The centrepiece of these investments is the ultra-low management fee of 0.03% per annum. That’s well below other actively managed ASX ETFs. For example, the BetaShares Australian Quality ETF (ASX: QLTY) charges a management fee of 0.35% per annum.

It’s even below what most passive ASX index funds charge. The most popular index fund on the ASX is the Vanguard Australian Shares Index ETF (ASX: VAS). It asks investors to pay a fee of 0.07% per annum.

It’s a similar story with Macquarie’s other new ETF – the Macquarie Core Global Equity Active ETF (ASX: MQEG). This fund works similarly to MQAE but draws 400-500 stocks from the global arena, specifically from the MSCI World ex-Australia ex-Tobacco Index.

This ETF charges an annual management fee of 0.08%. This fee is lower than that of a comparable fund, the Vanguard MSCI Index International Shares ETF (ASX: VGS), which asks 0.18% per annum.

A caveat, though: Both of these actively managed ASX ETFs also charge performance fees. If either ETF outperforms its benchmark index in any given period, investors will pay a 20% performance fee on any returns above the index’s return, subject to a high watermark.

With all of this in mind, it will be interesting to see what kinds of returns these new ETFs generate going forward.

The post Macquarie ups the ante on fees with new ASX ETFs appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Sebastian Bowen has positions in Vanguard Australian Shares Index ETF. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Vanguard Msci Index International Shares ETF. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

ASX 200 property stock Goodman Group (ASX: GMG) is trading 4.35% higher on Thursday at $34.82.

In earlier trading, the industrial real estate giant hit a new 52-week high of $35.09, up 5.15%.

With no news out of Australia’s biggest real estate investment trust (REIT) today, it is likely Goodman shares are just riding the wave of a buoyant market, with the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) up 1.64%.

The industrial property specialist has ripped up the charts over the past 12 months, gaining 73% in new value. This compares to its peers in the S&P/ASX 200 A-REIT Index (ASX: XPJ), which is up 21%.

What’s got this ASX 200 stock screaming higher?

Goodman Group is a property development and management behemoth with a $63.37 billion market capitalisation. Last year, it was among the top five most profitable large-cap ASX 200 stocks.

What’s got the Goodman share price shooting the lights out?

Well, first of all, the business appears to be in great shape.

Last week, the company’s third-quarter operational update revealed $800 million of completed developments during the quarter, with 96% of year-to-date completions committed.

Its total property portfolio is worth $80.5 billion and it’s got 98% occupancy. The 12-month rolling like-for-like net property income (NPI) growth is 4.9%.

There is $12.9 billion of development work in progress (WIP) across 82 projects, with 59% committed. The yield on cost is 6.8% and 74% of the WIP is either pre-sold or being built for third parties or partners.

All of this resulted in the company upgrading its guidance for FY24 for a second time. Management now expects operating earnings per share (EPS) growth of 13% in FY24. 

The ASX 200 property stock dipped 0.26% on the day the update was released.

What did management say?

CEO Greg Goodman said:

Our active asset management continues to optimise returns for our investors as we deliver essential infrastructure for the expanding digital economy.

The location and quality of our properties enables increased productivity, driving demand as our logistics customers are seeking to improve their supply chain efficiency using automation and offering faster transit times.

What makes Goodman different to other REITs?

A second factor likely prompting excited investors to plough more funds into this ASX 200 stock is Goodman’s industrial property specialisation and its exposure to the artificial intelligence (AI) megatrend.

Goodman is actively positioning itself to take advantage of the AI boom by building the data centres needed to make it all work.

Currently, data centres under construction represent approximately 40% of Goodman Group’s $12.9 billion WIP pipeline.

The company said it was progressing its data centre strategy and reviewing additional sites for potential data centre use now.

Goodman’s global power bank totals 4.3GW across 12 major cities, following a 0.3GW addition during the third quarter.

Source: Goodman Group third quarter update

The bank comprises 2.1GW of secured power, including 0.4GW that is stabilised and owned, and 0.4GW that is under development, and 2.2GW of power in the advanced stages of procurement.

Goodman says it has the proven development capabilities and strong balance sheet to continue buying and developing high-tier data centres in popular, supply-constrained locations.

Goodman said:

We continue to develop large-scale, high value, data centres, and expand our global power bank to address growing data centre demand as AI usage and cloud computing expands.

ASX 200 stock price snapshot

This ASX 200 property stock has gained 153.5% in market cap over the past five years.

This compares to 9.3% for the S&P/ASX 200 A-REIT Index.

The post Up 73% in a year, this surging ASX 200 stock just hit another all-time high appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Bronwyn Allen has positions in Goodman Group. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Goodman Group. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Goodman Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

If you are on the lookout for the dream combination of growth and attractive dividend yields, then you may want to check out the two ASX All Ords shares listed below.

These shares have been tipped to grow their earnings and dividends strongly in the coming years. And the even better news is that they could be cheap according to analysts. Let’s see what they are saying about them:

Treasury Wine Estates Ltd (ASX: TWE)

Morgans thinks that this wine giant’s shares could be undervalued at present. The broker has an add rating and $14.03 price target on the ASX All Ords share. This implies potential upside of almost 22% for investors over the next 12 months.

It is feeling very positive about its acquisition in the United States. It said:

It may take some time for the market to digest TWE’s acquisition of Paso Robles luxury wine business, DAOU Vineyards (DAOU) for US$900m (A$1.4bn) given it required a large capital raising. The acquisition is in line with TWE’s premiumisation and growth strategy and will strengthen a key gap in Treasury Americas (TA) portfolio. Importantly, DAOU has generated solid earnings growth and is a high margin business. It consequently allowed TWE to upgrade its margins targets. While not without risk given the size of this transaction, if TWE delivers on its investment case, there is material upside to our valuation.

As for dividends, the broker expects fully franked dividends of 36.4 cents in FY 2024 and then 44.8 cents in FY 2025. This will mean dividend yields of 3.15% and 3.9%, respectively.

Woolworths Group Ltd (ASX: WOW)

Goldman Sachs thinks that this ASX All Ords share could be cheap at current levels.

The broker has a buy rating and $39.40 price target on the supermarket giant’s shares. This suggests that they could rise 24% from current levels.

Goldman highlights that Woolworths’ shares are trading on lower than normal multiples despite having a positive outlook. It said:

WOW is the largest supermarket chain in Australia with an additional presence in NZ, as well as selling general merchandise retail via Big W. We are Buy rated on the stock as we believe the business has among the highest consumer stickiness and loyalty among peers, and hence has strong ability to drive market share gains via its omni-channel advantage, as well as its ability to pass through any cost inflation to protect its margins, beyond market expectations. The stock is trading below its historical average (since 2018), and we see this as a value entry level for a high-quality and defensive stock.

In respect to dividends, the broker has pencilled in fully franked dividends of $1.08 per share in FY 2024 and then $1.14 per share in FY 2025. This represents yields of 3.4% and 3.6%, respectively.

The post 2 cheap ASX All Ords shares to buy for growth and dividends appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has positions in Treasury Wine Estates. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Goldman Sachs Group. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Treasury Wine Estates. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The ASX iron ore share sector may be facing a difficult FY25 with the latest prediction from leading broker Citi.

As price-takers, the commodity businesses of Fortescue Ltd (ASX: FMG), Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO) and BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) are highly dependent on the iron ore price for the level of profitability they achieve.

Mining costs don’t typically change much month to month, so a higher commodity price means that extra revenue for its production largely translates into additional net profit as well. But, the opposite can be the case when the commodity price goes down.

So, where is the iron ore price headed? Let’s look at what Citi thinks.

Negative view on the iron ore price

According to the reporting by the Australian Financial Review, Citi’s analysts have reduced their three-month price target for the iron ore price from US$120 per tonne to US$105 per tonne because of the weakening credit market in China (which is a key buyer of Australian iron ore).

Trading Economics reports that the iron ore price is US$116 per tonne at the moment.

Citi said:

We see the weaker credit demand combined with protracted property sector weakness to remain a major overhang on Chinese steel and iron ore consumption.

Weak consumer confidence and profound structural changes in the property sector has led to insufficient credit demand.

We see downside risks for iron ore heading into summer and recommend investors to fade the iron ore rally.

Silver lining

However, not everyone is so pessimistic about the iron ore price, which could be helpful for the ASX iron ore share. Morgan Stanley thinks iron could reach US$125 per tonne by the end of 2024. The broker’s Amy Gower thinks investors should keep in mind that Chinese steel is being utilised in a number of emerging markets, not just in China. Gower said:

Chinese steel production has been trending sideways for much of the last three years, yet iron ore has continued to trade around $US120 per tonne – well above where consensus estimated it would be.

We see things differently…China’s falling consumption of iron ore for its own steel use since 2022 is being offset by growing demand in India, other [parts of] Asia, and the Middle East.

India, South-East Asia, Africa and the Middle East, are all expanding. Even if China’s exports did fall, steel production elsewhere would have to fill the gap, which diverts iron ore supply away from China.

Those three regions have reportedly increased their steel imports by up to 25% since last year.

Coincidentally, Trading Economics said recent data showed that Chinese steel export volumes surged by nearly 30% for the second straight month in April, underpinning demand for iron ore input.

It will be fascinating to see what happens for ASX iron ore shares.

The post What’s the outlook for ASX iron ore shares after the federal budget? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Citigroup is an advertising partner of The Ascent, a Motley Fool company. Motley Fool contributor Tristan Harrison has positions in Fortescue. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Coles Group Ltd (ASX: COL) shares are having a good session on Thursday.

In afternoon trade, the supermarket giant’s shares are up almost 2% to $16.48.

Why are Coles shares rising today?

Today’s gain appears to have been driven partly by the release of an upbeat broker note out of Goldman Sachs.

Although the broker is not recommending the company as a buy, it has taken its sell rating off its shares.

According to the note, the broker has upgraded Coles shares to a neutral rating with an improved price target of $16.30 (from $15.40).

What did the broker say?

Goldman first explained why it previously had a sell rating on the supermarket operator’s shares. It said:

We downgraded COL in Sep 2022 on the thesis that Cole’s e-Comm (Ocado) strategy, with its next day and structurally more expensive model, would lead to market share losses and its entrance into a high investment cycle for digital and supply chain would pressure margins over FY23-25. Since we downgraded on 13 Sep2022, COL has fallen 6% vs the ASX 200 of +11%. Since then COL has: 1. Delayed the Ocado facilities multiple times, increasing capex to ~A$400m as well as factoring in higher than expected implementation costs. 2. Reported unexpectedly high stock-losses due to store/digital under-investment; which continues to hit margins.

However, the broker is now feeling a lot more positive on Coles and its shares following the release of its half year results and third quarter sales update. It explains:

Following the 1H24/3Q24 results and recent channel checks we have become more positive on COL on the basis: 1. New CEO has actively addressed margin/loss issues with now 346 stores with skip scans and 286 with smart gates; 2. Demonstrated strong retail execution including the effective communication of value to consumers via various price programs, collectibles and protein availability in 3Q24 resulting in ~360 bps of sales growth difference vs WOW and further cost-out of A$1B Simplify and Save across 4 years; 3. Faster scaling of Retail Media, which is significantly accretive to the Food segment margin, together with its digital and loyalty program, re-activating Flybuys active members to 9.4mn.

Should you invest?

While Goldman only has a neutral rating on Coles shares, there are brokers out there that are feeling a lot more bullish.

One of those is Morgans, which recently put an add rating and $18.95 price target on its shares. This implies potential upside of approximately 15% for investors over the next 12 months.

The post Why Goldman Sachs just upgraded Coles shares appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Goldman Sachs Group. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Coles Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.