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Investors seeking stable income in a volatile market often turn to dividend stocks. One such compelling option on the ASX is Rural Funds Group (ASX: RFF), a real estate investment trust (REIT) specialising in agricultural assets.

With an attractive distribution yield of approximately 6% and the benefit of quarterly cash payments, Rural Funds offers a unique opportunity for income-focused investors.

Even better, Rural Funds is set to pay its quarterly dividends next week. Is now the perfect time to buy Rural Funds shares ahead of its ex-dividend date on 27 June?

Understanding Rural Funds Group

Rural Funds Group is Australia’s only diversified agricultural REIT. It owns a portfolio of high-quality agricultural assets, including almond orchards, vineyards, cattle and cotton properties, macadamia orchards, and water entitlements.

These assets are leased to experienced operators under long-term agreements, providing a stable income stream and potential for capital growth.

Farmland has been a valuable asset for centuries, and it is likely it will remain so for the foreseeable future. The long-term stability appeals to many investors, as my colleague Tristan highlighted. Additionally, the ongoing growth of both Australian and global populations is a significant tailwind for the business.

Why Rural Funds stands out for dividend investors

The Rural Funds unit price has dropped 35% from its all-time high of $3.18 in January 2022 and has hovered around the $2 mark over the past year.

At the current price, Rural Funds offers a distribution yield of 5.67%, higher than many other dividend-paying stocks on the ASX.

Unlike many ASX dividend shares that pay dividends semi-annually, Rural Funds provides quarterly distributions. This regular income can be especially beneficial for retirees who rely on passive income for their living expenses.

Rural Funds’ diversified portfolio across different agricultural sectors reduces the risk associated with any single commodity or market. The REIT’s properties are leased to reputable operators under long-term agreements, often with built-in rental escalations.

Trading below its book value

After the recent weakness in its unit price, Rural Funds is trading below its book value. Rural Funds is trading at a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.73x based on its reported number. However, this includes its water entitlements at their book values. Adjusting for this, reflecting the estimated market value of these assets, the company estimates its net asset value (NAV) at $3.07 per unit as of 31 December 2023. This makes its adjusted P/B ratio even lower, at 0.67x.

Such attractive valuations caught eyes of some analysts. Bell Potter highlighted its attractive valuation and high distribution yield as the reasons to like Rural Funds, as my colleague James said.

The Rural Funds Group share price finished Friday’s trading up 0.98% at $2.07.

The post Income booster: Here’s an ASX dividend stock that yields 6% and provides quarterly cash payments appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• 9 popular ASX REITs with ex-dividend dates next week
• Buy Telstra and these ASX dividend stocks now
• Analysts name 3 high yield ASX dividend stocks to buy
• 4 ASX income stocks with big dividend yields to buy now
• 3 ASX shares trading below their book values

Motley Fool contributor Kate Lee has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Rural Funds Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

It has been another busy week for Australia’s top brokers. This has led to the release of a number of broker notes.

Three broker buy ratings that you might want to know more about are summarised below. Here’s why brokers think these ASX shares are in the buy zone:

Life360 Inc (ASX: 360)

According to a note out of Bell Potter, its analysts have retained their buy rating on this location technology company’s shares with an improved price target of $17.75. Bell Potter notes that Life360 has announced that its Life360 app has now surpassed 2 million paying circles. This was notably ahead of the broker’s expectations. In fact, Bell Potter was only expecting 1.98 million paying circles at the end of the first half. It feels this bodes well for the company going into the seasonally strong third quarter of the year. As a result, its analysts appear confident that the company is destined to deliver another strong result this year. The Life360 share price ended the week at $15.66.

Light & Wonder Inc (ASX: LNW)

A note out of Morgans reveals that its analysts have initiated coverage on this gambling products and services provider’s shares with an add rating and $172.00 price target. According to the note, the broker has been impressed with Light & Wonder’s restructuring and rebranding. It notes that this has resulted in the significant capture of land-based market share in Australia. While that is positive, the real reason Morgans is bullish is that it believes Light & Wonder can replicate this in the massive United States market. In addition, its analysts highlight that its digital segments are performing well, with its social casino division, SciPlay, significantly outpacing the rest of the market. The Light & Wonder share price was fetching $152.18 at Friday’s close.

Woolworths Group Ltd (ASX: WOW)

Analysts at Morgan Stanley have upgraded this supermarket giant’s shares to an overweight rating with an improved price target of $37.00. According to the note, the broker made the move in response to the release of the results of a major household survey. These results have made the broker more positive on the supermarket industry. This is because it feels that the survey points to consumer trends that will lead to better than expected same store sales in FY 2025. In addition, Morgan Stanley believes the survey point to Woolworths being the biggest winner from these trends. As a result, it has promoted the company to be its top industry pick. The Woolworths share price ended the week at $33.63.

The post Top brokers name 3 ASX shares to buy next week appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• The Woolworths share price is down 16%: Time to buy the stock?
• Brokers name 3 ASX shares to buy now
• These 3 top ASX 200 shares just earned substantial broker upgrades. Here’s why
• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today
• Could Woolworths shares beat the market in FY25?

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has positions in Life360. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Life360 and Light & Wonder. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Light & Wonder. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Having passive income would certainly be very helpful in the current environment.

Unfortunately, unless you’re lucky enough to already have a bank account filled to the brim with cash, it’s going to be too late to generate a sizeable income from the share market immediately to combat the cost of living crisis.

However, don’t let that stop you from making it a long term goal, so that you are ready to tackle any cost of living shocks that could happen in the future.

Generating $1,000 of monthly passive income from the ASX

If you wish to pull in $1,000 of monthly passive income from the ASX, you’re going to need to generate $12,000 of dividends each year.

The good news is that there are a fair number of ASX shares on the local bourse that analysts are forecasting to provide 6%+ yields. This includes the likes of APA Group (ASX: APA), Stockland Corporation Ltd (ASX: SGP), and Accent Group Ltd (ASX: AX1).

If you are able to build a diversified portfolio of ASX shares that provides you with an overall yield of 6%, you would need a portfolio valued at $200,000 to generate total dividends of $12,000 a year.

Investors that already have this amount of cash to invest can now do this and relax and watch the passive income come in. But if you’re starting from zero, you will need a plan.

How to get started

The first step for passive income investors to take is to make consistent investments in the share market.

For example, if you can invest $5,000 into the share market each year, your portfolio would grow to be worth $200,000 in 16 years if you achieved an average total return of 10% per annum. This is broadly in line with historical averages, so not guaranteed but certainly possible.

After which, investors will need to find a high quality group of ASX shares to invest these funds into.

Investors may wish to build a diverse portfolio by splitting their $5,000 investment across a number of ASX shares. This could also include ETFs, which allow investors to buy large groups of shares in one go.

Next, let compounding work its magic. This is what happens when you earn returns on top of returns. It essentially supercharges your wealth, particularly the longer you leave it.

For example, 10 years of investing $5,000 and earning a 10% per annum return would turn into $88,000. But if you keep going just six more years, you will have grown your portfolio by a further $112,000 to the target amount of $200,000.

At that point, you now have enough to start generating material passive income from the ASX.

Overall, by following these steps, you could turn the ASX into your own personal ATM.

The post ASX passive income: Earn $1000/month appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Here’s how the ASX 200 market sectors stacked up last week
• 3 ASX 300 real estate shares with attractive dividend yields
• Passive income powerhouses! 3 ASX shares I’d consider buying for rising dividends
• Buy these excellent ASX 200 dividend shares for very juicy yields
• 10 ASX shares that have raised dividends for a decade

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Apa Group. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Accent Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

If you’re a fan of ASX growth shares, then you will be pleased to know that analysts are predicting great returns from the seven listed below.

Here’s what you need to know about these top shares:

Aristocrat Leisure Limited (ASX: ALL)

The first ASX growth share that could be a buy is Aristocrat Leisure. It is one of the world’s leading gaming technology companies with a portfolio of pokie machines, digital games, and a fledgling real money gaming business.

Analysts at Citi are very positive on the company and have a buy rating and $53.00 price target on its shares.

Lovisa Holdings Ltd (ASX: LOV)

Another ASX growth share to look at is Lovisa, which is a rapidly growing fashion jewellery retailer.

Bell Potter is very positive on the company due to its global expansion. In fact, it believes Lovisa can grow its network by 10% per annum between FY 2023 and FY 2034. This is expected to support strong earnings growth over the next decade.

The broker currently has a buy rating and $36.00 price target on Lovisa’s shares.

NextDC Ltd (ASX: NXT)

Another ASX growth share that is rated as a buy is NextDC. It is one of Asia’s most innovative data centre-as-a-service providers.

Morgan Stanley is very positive on the company’s outlook. This is thanks to its belief that the data centre market will grow materially over the remainder of the decade.

The broker currently has an overweight rating and $20.00 price target on its shares.

Temple & Webster Group Ltd (ASX: TPW)

Another ASX growth share to look at is Temple & Webster. It is Australia’s leading online furniture and homewares retailer.

Temple & Webster has been growing strongly in recent years thanks to the structural shift online. But the good news is that this shift is still in its early stages in this category compared to other Western markets.

As a result, the team at Morgan Stanley believes there’s still plenty more growth to come. It has put an overweight rating and $12.25 price target on its shares.

Webjet Limited (ASX: WEB)

A fifth ASX growth share that could be a buy is online travel booking company Webjet.

Morgans is bullish on the company due partly to its key WebBeds B2B business. It notes that there is still “significant market share still up for grabs,” which leaves Webjet well-positioned for the future.

Morgans has an add rating and price target of $11.20 on Webjet’s shares.

WiseTech Global Ltd (ASX: WTC)

Another ASX growth share that has been tipped as a buy is WiseTech Global.

It is the logistics solutions company behind the CargoWise One logistics management platform. This platform is integral to the global logistics industry, allowing users to execute complex logistics transactions and manage freight operations from a single, easy-to-use platform.

Demand continues to grow for CargoWise One, which is supporting very strong recurring revenue growth. It is partly for this reason that UBS currently has a buy rating and $112.00 price target on its shares.

Xero Ltd (ASX: XRO)

A final ASX growth share that could be a buy is Xero. It is a cloud accounting platform provider with an estimated global market opportunity of 100 million small to medium sized businesses. This compares to its current subscriber base of approximately 4.2 million.

Goldman Sachs believes this gives the company a multi-decade growth runway. Its analysts have a buy rating and $164.00 price target on its shares.

The post 7 excellent ASX growth shares to buy next week appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• What’s ahead for ASX 200 travel shares in FY 2025?
• 1 ASX dividend stock to buy for growth and stay for a 5% yield
• These 3 top ASX 200 shares just earned substantial broker upgrades. Here’s why
• Up 78% in a year, is it too late to buy Lovisa shares?
• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has positions in Lovisa, Nextdc, Technology One, and Xero. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Goldman Sachs Group, Lovisa, Technology One, and Xero. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Xero. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Lovisa and Technology One. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

ASX 200 utilities shares led the market sectors last week, with an impressive 4.21% lift over the five trading days.

The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) gained 1.02% over the week to finish at 7,796 points on Friday.

Eight of the 11 market sectors finished the week in the green.

Let’s review.

Utilities shares led the ASX sectors last week

Among the largest of the 22 ASX 200 utilities companies, the outperformer for price growth this week was Origin Energy Ltd (ASX: ORG).

Origin shares rose by 5.85% to finish at $10.76 on Friday. There was no price-sensitive news from Origin this week.

The AGL Energy Limited (ASX: AGL) share price lifted 3.03% to $10.55 this week, also on no price-sensitive news.

APA Group (ASX: APA) shares rose 0.12% over the five trading days to finish at $8.40.

On Friday, the energy infrastructure business announced an estimated final distribution of 29.5 cents per share. The record date is 28 June and the payment date is 18 September.

Utilities small-caps Frontier Energy Ltd (ASX: FHE) and Duxton Water Ltd (ASX: D2O) had a great week.

Frontier Energy shares gained 7.95% to finish at 48 cents on Friday.

Last week the company announced it had signed contracts with Western Power to begin detailed design and procurement work for stage one of its Waroona Renewable Energy Project.

Duxton Water shares lifted 6.55% to close at $1.47 on Friday. The company did not release any news last week.

The second strongest sector last week was financials, up 2.08%.

The ASX 200 bank stocks continued to test multi-year high prices last week.

On Friday, Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) shares reset their record high yet again. The biggest ASX 200 bank stock peaked at $128.25 per share on Friday but closed the week at $127.68.

Also last week, National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB) shares reached a nine-year high of $36.42.

Also, Bendigo and Adelaide Bank Ltd (ASX: BEN) hit its highest price in almost five years at $11.42.

ASX 200 market sector snapshot

Here’s how the 11 market sectors stacked up last week, according to CommSec data.

Over the five trading days:

S&P/ASX 200 market sector	Change last week
Utilities (ASX: XUJ)	4.21%
Financials (ASX: XFJ)	2.08%
Healthcare (ASX: XHJ)	1.92%
Communication (ASX: XTJ)	1.86%
Consumer Staples (ASX: XSJ)	1.71%
Consumer Discretionary (ASX: XDJ)	1.03%
A-REIT (ASX: XPJ)	0.76%
Energy (ASX: XEJ)	0.75%
Industrials (ASX: XNJ)	(0.24%)
Information Technology (ASX: XIJ)	(0.62%)
Materials (ASX: XMJ)	(1.08%)

The post Here’s how the ASX 200 market sectors stacked up last week appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• ASX passive income: Earn $1000/month
• Surely CBA shares can’t just keep rising?
• How to turn your savings account into a gold mine starting with $10,000
• Can the good times keep rolling for ASX 200 bank shares in FY25?
• 3 top ASX 200 stocks that could create lasting passive income into retirement

Motley Fool contributor Bronwyn Allen has positions in Commonwealth Bank Of Australia. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Apa Group and Bendigo And Adelaide Bank. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The Fortescue Ltd (ASX: FMG) share price has slid 20% over the past month, as the chart below shows. With this lower market capitalisation, investors are being offered better value when buying Fortescue shares. Does the FY25 outlook mean it’s a good time to dig into the ASX iron ore share?

It’s not surprising that investors aren’t feeling as optimistic – the iron ore price has dropped from US$117 per tonne at the end of May to US$107 per tonne now.

A decline in the commodity price is bad news for miners – mining costs don’t usually change much from month to month, so a reduction in revenue for the same amount of production usually results in a large decline in net profit.

Where will the iron ore price go next? No one can know for certain – commodity prices are both unpredictable and sometimes cyclical.

Iron ore price to rebound?

Trading Economics recently reported that economic data from China is adding to pessimism about the outlook for iron ore demand.

Chinese house prices in 70 cities declined by 3.9% year over year in May, the largest decline since 2015.

Another negative was that ‘fixed asset investment’ was lower than expected, which Trading Economics said unscored the “rout in the property market and consumers’ reluctance to purchase real estate.”

Chinese officials have been trying to reduce the country’s growing housing inventory with various measures rather than supporting Chinese property developers in financial strife. Those developers are typically some of the world’s largest users of steel and, therefore, iron ore, so their struggles can have a knock-on effect on the iron ore industry.

Finally, Trading Economics noted there was “muted” industrial demand in China, which was another headwind for iron ore because the hope was that “higher manufacturing growth would drive infrastructure-stemmed steel demand to offset the rout in construction.”

However, it’s worth noting the iron ore price has fallen to approximately US$100 per tonne (or below) a number of times over the past five years and then rebounded, though past performance is not a reliable indicator for the future.

Having said that, Trading Economics’ macro models and analyst expectations suggest the iron ore price could reach US$126 per tonne in 12 months. If that happens, it could increase the company’s profitability and fund larger dividends.

FY25 earnings estimate

The broker UBS, which is less optimistic about the iron ore price, has outlined in a note its expectations for Fortescue’s FY25 numbers. UBS thinks the iron ore price will be around US$113 per tonne over the rest of the 2024 calendar year.

UBS forecasts Fortescue could see revenue of US$17.1 billion and net profit after tax (NPAT) of US$5.3 billion in FY25, with that profit forecast representing a possible year over year decline of 15%. The dividend per share could fall more than 23% year over year to A$1.28 per share.

Fortescue isn’t expected to be producing green hydrogen meaningfully in FY25, so its efforts with green energy may not be material yet for Fortescue shares.

If the iron ore price is stronger than expected during the 2025 financial year, it could mean better financials than what UBS is predicting, but that would likely require an uptick in demand from China, which doesn’t seem certain at this stage.

The post Is the FY25 outlook for Fortescue shares compelling? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Top 10 most traded ASX shares and US stocks in May
• 5 reasons everyone’s talking about Fortescue shares this week
• What’s the outlook for ASX 200 mining shares in FY25?
• Why Beach Energy, Fortescue, Kina Securities, and Melbana Energy shares are dropping today
• Fortescue shares drop as $1.1 billion stake hits the market

Motley Fool contributor Tristan Harrison has positions in Fortescue. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

There are a lot of ASX income shares out there for investors to choose from at present.

Two that are highly rated are named below. Here’s what analysts are saying about them:

Cedar Woods Properties Limited (ASX: CWP)

Analysts at Morgans are positive on this property company and think it could be an ASX income share to buy.

The broker has Cedar Woods’ shares on its best ideas list with an add rating and $5.60 price target.

Its analysts believe the company’s shares are undervalued and deserve to trade on higher multiples. They said:

CWP is a volume business and the demand for lots looks to be improving, with margins to invariably follow. CWP’s exposure to lower priced stock in higher growth markets sees further potential to drive earnings. On this basis, we see every reason for CWP to trade at NTA and potentially at a premium, were the housing cycle to gain steam through FY25/26.

In respect to income, Morgans is forecasting dividends per share of 18 cents in FY 2024 and then 20 cents in FY 2025. Based on the current Cedar Woods Properties share price of $4.60, this will mean dividend yields of 3.9% and 4.35%, respectively.

Healthco Healthcare and Wellness REIT (ASX: HCW)

Another ASX income share that could be a buy next week is the Healthco Healthcare and Wellness REIT.

Bell Potter is a big fan of the health and wellness focused property company and has a buy rating and $1.50 price target on its shares.

It believes that recent weakness has created a compelling buying opportunity for investors. The broker said:

HCW has underperformed the REIT sector last 3 months (-10% vs. +22% XPJ) following bond yield reversion and is attractively priced at 20% discount to NTA (but only REIT to record flat to positive valuation movement at 1H24) with double digit 3 year EPS CAGR given high relative sector debt hedging and ability to grow its $1bn development pipeline via attractive YoC spread to marginal cost of debt. Longer term, HCW has significant scope for growth with an estimated $218 billion addressable market where an ageing and growing population should underpin long-term sector demand.

As for dividends, Bell Potter is forecasting dividends per share of 8 cents in FY 2024 and then 8.3 cents in FY 2025. Based on its current share price of $1.15, this would mean generous yields of 6.95% and 7.2%, respectively.

The post Buy these ASX income shares next week appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Are ASX REITs a good investment right now?
• Analysts name 3 high yield ASX dividend stocks to buy
• These ASX shares could rise 25% to ~50%
• 4 ASX income stocks with big dividend yields to buy now
• 2 excellent ASX income stocks to buy this month

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

With just one week left in FY 2024, we polish our crystal ball to gauge what investors can expect from S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) travel shares in FY 2025.

Before we turn to that, though, here’s how ASX 200 travel shares have performed over the past 12 months:

• Qantas Airways Ltd (ASX: QAN) shares are down 5%
• Flight Centre Travel Group Ltd (ASX: FLT) shares are up 1%
• Webjet Ltd (ASX: WEB) shares are up 25%
• Corporate Travel Management Ltd (ASX: CTD) shares are down 27%.

This very mixed bag of results compares to a one-year gain of 6% posted by the ASX 200.

Now, here’s what could help or hinder the big Aussie travel companies in the year ahead.

A new financial year for ASX 200 travel shares

Looking ahead to FY 2025, each of the ASX 200 travel shares will obviously face its own company-specific headwinds and tailwinds.

But all of them depend on a robust travel sector to keep their customers and revenue flowing.

With that in mind, the first thing to keep an eye on is fuel costs. Jet fuel accounts for some 20% of airlines’ annual expenses, so higher or lower fuel costs will impact Qantas shares directly.

But Webjet, Corporate Travel Management and Flight Centre will also be impacted as airlines will pass on any major cost increases or declines to travellers, influencing the amount of business these companies can expect.

On that front, the Brent crude oil price ended the week back above US$85 per barrel. With record US output balancing out the current OPEC+ production cuts, and with OPEC+ intending to ease out of those cuts in Q2 FY 2025, I don’t expect the oil price will sustainably hold above US$90 in the year ahead. Keeping a cap on fuel prices should help support the outlook for ASX 200 travel shares.

The industry is also susceptible to what happens with the global conflicts currently raging in various corners of the world. Should these escalate or new conflicts erupt, that would likely put a dent in international travel. And it could drive energy costs higher as well.

Growing tailwinds?

All of the ASX 200 travel shares are likely to get a boost from various government cost-of-living relief measures and the stage 3 tax cuts in FY 2025. If inflation comes down and the RBA begins to cut interest rates, it could usher in a big boost for the sector.

And another potential boost across the board for ASX 200 travel shares in FY 2025 is the potential for a big uptick in travellers to and from China.

This comes after China just agreed to add Australians to those citizens who can travel to the Middle Kingdom visa-free for up to 15 days. Australia’s government is offering some reciprocal measures.

The post What’s ahead for ASX 200 travel shares in FY 2025? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• These ASX shares could rise 20% and ~40%
• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today
• How AI can help Qantas shares fly higher
• Near its 52-week low, this ASX growth stock could be the bargain of the year!
• Could Qantas shares be poised to catch some Chinese tailwinds?

Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Corporate Travel Management. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Corporate Travel Management. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Flight Centre Travel Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) share price has shown strong performance recently, with a rise of over 30% since the beginning of November 2023, as shown on the chart below. Meanwhile, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) has risen 14% in the same time period.

CBA has climbed alongside the other major ASX bank shares, including National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB), Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC) and ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: ANZ).

Does the rise make sense? As John Maynard Keynes once said:

The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent

Does the recent performance justify investor enthusiasm?

It’s a strange surge for the banking sector, considering the ongoing banking challenges remain. The net interest margin (NIM) (lending profit after funding costs) is drifting lower, arrears are climbing, competition is strong and credit demand is not strong.

In the FY24 third quarter update, cash net profit after tax (NPAT) declined 5% year over year to around $2.4 billion.

CBA noted its net interest income was challenged because of “lower net interest margins primarily from continued competitive pressures and customers switching to higher yielding deposits.”

It said there was “improved momentum” in volume growth across home lending and household deposits. Home loans grew by $4.2 billion, at 0.7 times the system, for the three months to March 2024.

CBA also revealed its loan arrears are increasing – the percentage of home loans that are at least 90 days overdue increased to 0.61% at March 2024, up from 0.52% at December 2023, 0.44% at March 2023 and 0.43% at December 2022.  

Despite that backdrop, the CBA share price has delivered this rise. It’s now very expensive on typical valuation metrics.

According to the independently provided forecasts on Commsec, the CBA share price is valued at 22x FY24’s estimated earnings and 22.5x FY25’s estimated earnings – earnings per share (EPS) is expected to drop around 2.5% in FY25 amid the challenges I’ve talked about.

My take on the CBA share price

In my opinion, CBA is definitely one of the highest-quality banks in Australia, along with Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) and probably NAB.

It has done well growing profit over the last decade despite the challenges, and I applaud its efforts to expand in business banking, where it can diversify and grow its earnings.

I don’t think CBA shares offer good value here, but I would have said that when the CBA share price was at $120 (and it’s above $127 now).

There is one main reason the CBA share price keeps rising – there is stronger buying demand than selling. It’s hard to say who is driving the buy, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s investors who are not entirely focused on valuation.

ASX-focused exchange-traded funds (ETFs), such as Vanguard Australian Shares Index ETF (ASX: VAS), must buy the shares in their index if people give the fund provider money.

Also, Australians collectively continue to contribute billions of dollars to their superannuation fund, such as AustralianSuper, which must allocate that money in accordance with the super member’s investment allocation wishes, which typically would include a sizeable portion to Australian shares.

There is a lot of capital in Australia that is looking for a home every month or three months. So, it’s possible the CBA share price could keep rising, even if the valuation isn’t appealing.

The post Surely CBA shares can’t just keep rising? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• How to turn your savings account into a gold mine starting with $10,000
• Can the good times keep rolling for ASX 200 bank shares in FY25?
• 3 top ASX 200 stocks that could create lasting passive income into retirement
• 2 ASX 200 bank shares smashing new multi-year highs today
• Beaten-up ASX 200 stock rebounds 15%. Macquarie says more to come

Motley Fool contributor Tristan Harrison has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Unless you’ve been living under a rock (or else aren’t too interested in finance or investing), you’ve probably heard about the explosive rise of US chip and artificial intelligence (AI) stock NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) over the past year or two.

Nvidia has been a much-loved growth stock for a while now. But its growth has gone from stratospheric to astronomic over the past 12-18 months.

To give you an idea of what that looks like, the Nvidia share price has put on 181.5% in 2024 alone (as of the US markets’ Wednesday close). Those gains stretch to 209.5% over the past 12 months and a stupendous 3,477% over the past five years.

Obviously, I would have loved to own this stock, ideally for at least five years. But I don’t. And I’m not going to buy any.

Nvidia is an incredible company, no one disputes that. The earnings numbers it has been cranking out over the past few months have been almost unbelievable. To illustrate, back in May, the company’s quarterly report showed revenues surging 262% year over year to US$26 billion.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see this kind of growth continue for at least another year or two.

So why wouldn’t I want to buy this company? Well, I am seeing the classic signs that Nvidia shares are entering ‘bubble’ territory.

Is Nvidia stock in a bubble?

Investors always love a market darling. When it seems a company can do no wrong and is the centre of the future, everyone understandably wants a slice of the action. We always see this kind of thing on the investing markets, albeit not on Nvidia’s scale.

On the ASX, we had Afterpay and Zip Co Ltd (ASX: ZIP) a few years ago.

On the US markets, electric vehicle manufacturers were all the rage back in 2021 and 2022. We saw companies like Tesla, Rivian and Nikola explode in value, only to shrink once the hype faded. Many of these companies had strong numbers to back up their growth stories, to be sure. No one disputes that the trajectory of electric vehicles is still on the rise.

But there was hype in that space. And that hype faded. As it almost always does. Today, Tesla shares are still well above (over 1,100%) what they were five years ago. But the company is also down 55% or so from its record high.

Rivian shares have plummeted by 91.5% from their 2021 peak, while Nikola shares have also dropped by over 99% from their peak.

I’m not saying this will happen with Nvidia. In my view, the company’s future is bright. But I don’t think it’s sustainable for a multi-trillion company to rise by 43% in one month, as Nvidia stock has. I think eventually, the company will come down to earth. As Benjamin Graham once said, ‘in the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run, it is a weighing machine”.

Investors are clearly voting Nvidia stock higher right now. But I’m willing to wait and see what the market eventually weighs it at. I could be wrong here. Perhaps Nvidia goes on to become a US$4 trillion company or even a US$5 trillion one in 2024 or 2025. But I think that’s a roll of the dice at this stage, and I don’t roll dice in my portfolio.

The post It’s up 3,500%, but here’s why I’m still not buying Nvidia stock appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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• Is Nvidia stock going to $200 in the wake of its 10-for-1 stock split?
• Can anyone topple Nvidia as the king of artificial intelligence investments?

Motley Fool contributor Sebastian Bowen has positions in Tesla. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Nvidia, Tesla, and Zip Co. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Nvidia. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.