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• Nvidia is dominating earnings season, and it hasn't even reported results yet.
• Other mega-cap tech giants have been mentioning on earnings calls that they're boosting investment in AI infrastructure.
• Nvidia offers the popular H100 GPU chip that many companies use, and was specifically name-checked in some instances.

Nvidia is dominating first-quarter earnings season, and it hasn't even reported its results yet.

The company has received several nods, both directly and indirectly, from mega-cap tech companies that it counts as some of its biggest customers.

Words like "AI Infrastructure" and "generative AI" and "infrastructure capex" consistently popped up on the earnings calls of Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta Platforms, and it all points to more money being directed to Nvidia for its incredibly popular H100 GPU chip.

Nvidia's H100 GPU, which costs upwards of $40,000, enables the AI technologies that make ChatGPT, Anthropic, and other generative AI platforms possible.

The company is gearing up for the release of its next-generation AI chip, named Blackwell, later this year.

Elon Musk shouts out Nvidia's AI chips

Perhaps the biggest vote of confidence for Nvidia during this earnings season came from Tesla CEO Elon Musk, who said on his company's earnings call that the electric vehicle manufacturer will more than double its H100 GPU chips by the end of the year.

"We've installed and commissioned, meaning they're actually working, 35,000 H100 computers or GPUs," Musk said last month. "Roughly 35,000 H100s are active, and we expect that to be probably 85,000 or thereabouts by the end of this year." 

Musk said the H100s are helping Tesla further improve its Full Self-Driving software. 

Mega-cap tech's AI spending is soaring

Meta Platforms said it was increasing its forecasted capital expenditures for 2024 to a range of $35 billion to $40 billion from a prior range of $30 billion to $37 billion. The increase, according to Meta, is primarily being driven by the buildout of its "infrastructure investments to support our AI roadmap."

In January, Meta said it would buy 350,000 H100 GPUs from Nvidia in 2024, but a recent update from the company's head of AI, Yann LeCun, suggests that the company has bought even more H100 chips in recent months.

Speaking at the Forging the Future of Business with AI summit last month, LeCun and host John Werner said that Meta has bought an additional 500,000 GPUs from Nvidia, bringing its total to 1 million with a retail value of about $30 billion.

Microsoft has similar ambitions and said it hopes to amass a war chest of 1.8 million GPUs by the end of 2024, according to an internal document.

Alphabet said its first-quarter CAPEX was $12 billion, or about double from the prior year, driven "overwhelmingly by investment in our technical infrastructure with the largest component for servers followed by data centers."

Microsoft said it expects $50 billion in capital expenditures in its upcoming fiscal year, and its fiscal third-quarter spending soared almost 80% to $14 billion. 

And while Amazon didn't detail its capital expenditure plans, it did say it expects to spend more money.

"We anticipate our overall capital expenditures to meaningfully increase year-over-year in 2024, primarily driven by higher infrastructure capex to support growth in AWS, including generative AI," Amazon CFO Brian Olsavsky said.

Altogether, the combined capex of Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, and Amazon is expected to reach $205 billion this year, representing a 40% increase from 2023 levels, according to UBS. And a good chunk of that money will likely be funneled to Nvidia for its H100 and Blackwell AI chips. 

Nvidia has competition, but it still dominates

Recent earnings results from Nvidia's rival, AMD, suggest that most of this business is going to Nvidia and not its competitors.

AMD said its MI300 AI chip would generate revenue of about $4 billion in 2024, which pales in comparison to Nvidia's expected revenue of more than $100 billion this year. 

Meanwhile, Intel recently unveiled its Gaudi 3 AI chip that will compete with Nvidia, but it said it expects the chip to generate only $500 million in sales this year. 

Investors will have to wait until after the market close on May 22 to hear what Nvidia's earnings results actually are.

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• Many Americans have come to feel that a middle-class lifestyle is out of reach.
• Blame inflation for bringing down the mood and making the economy seem much worse than it is. 
• Money experts say people feeling downbeat can create a financial plan to alleviate stress. 

Vincent, a 29-year-old medical sales rep, makes $130,000 a year.

It was a dream when he was younger — once he was making six figures, he assumed he'd be in financial nirvana, worry-free, off on vacation somewhere at least once a year, perhaps able to buy a home in the not-too-distant future. 

"I was like, if I could make six figures, I'd have a nice life. I can save up the down payment on a home and start to begin my life," Vincent, who preferred to only use his first name to protect his privacy.

He was surprised to find out that in Santa Barbara, a coastal California city where the cost of living is 65% higher than the national average, he's barely able to save for anything, let alone buy a house, plan for kids, or hit other milestones of middle-class life. 

"Bigger ticket items that our parents could have bought, like a home or car, that is, just to me, out of reach," said Vincent, though he acknowledged his budget could go further in a city with a lower cost of living.

"I would have to save 10k for six or seven years straight and really sacrifice to put down on maybe the dumpiest thing I could find here."

Vincent's experience is emblematic of what has become of the middle-class American dream, with many earning well into six figures but feeling like they're way behind the curve or that the economic chips are stacked against them. 

Some of these concerns are real — see the wildly expensive US housing market — while others, experts say, may be a matter of perception versus reality, as the economy feels tough even as earnings are growing and employment is strong. 

Vincent is among a growing group of middle-class Americans — most recently defined in 2022 by the Pew Research Center as households earning between $48,500 and $145,500 — who don't feel they can't afford to live a traditional middle-class life, replete with a home and a comfortable retirement.

According to Eoin Sheehan, a senior research analyst at Redfield & Wilton, inflation has caused many Americans to ignore the overall strength of the US economy.

Growth, hiring, and financial markets are strong, while wage growth has started to exceed the pace of inflation. 

While higher costs pose challenges to retiring or buying a home, those goals aren't out of reach with careful planning, according to Chris Collins, a wealth advisor at Northwestern Mutual's Collins Financial.

Collins suspects that most middle-class Americans feel anxious about their financial situation due to financial shock fatigue — the exhaustion of navigating one big economic shock after another — as well as a lack of financial planning.

His clients typically start to calm down once they crunch the numbers and figure out how much they need to save for retirement or meet their other financial goals. Prior to that, many falsely assumed they needed to work forever, he says.

"I'm not telling people, 'You are going to die broken and alone.' It's, 'Hey, with a little bit of work here, you're going to be all right,'" Collins said. "They don't feel like they can relax until somebody runs the financial plan, runs the modeling and says, 'you're going to be fine.'"

Still, those statements don't square with how many households may be feeling about their financial and wealth status. The sentiment is all over the place online, expressed by social media users who identify as middle class but say they're increasingly feeling less well-off. 

TikTok user Jessica in Alabama said she believed the middle class was dying. She pointed to her eldest daughter, who she says worked 60 hours a week during her pregnancy to provide for her family. 

"Do we even have a middle class anymore, or is it just the haves and the have-nots?" Jessica said in a TikTok post in February. "Because the haves are having, and the have-nots are struggling." 

"I'm sorry, but if you know somebody with kids and they say they're not struggling financially, they're lying," Kayla, another TikTok user said. She pointed to the rising cost of groceries and other essentials.   

"Honestly, life is difficult for the middle class," Vincent added. "I feel like I can make ends meet, but I can't really move this lifestyle."

Cost-of-living crisis

Middle-class Americans have been feeling worse about the economy for a long time, but the negative mood appears to have ticked up sharply in recent years. 

Financial anxiety has hit an all-time high, according to a survey from Northwestern Mutual, and a survey from Primerica found that half of middle-class households say their financial situation is "not so good" or outright "poor."

For many in the middle class, inflation is at the heart of this feeling. 51% of respondents in the Northwestern Mutual survey said inflation was the biggest obstacle to financial security, while 67% of households in Primerica's survey said their income was falling behind the cost of living.

That's making people feel locked out of many of the milestones long associated with middle-class life. 74% of middle class Americans have cut back on non-essential spending, according to Primerica's survey. A full half of Americans surveyed said they didn't plan on going on a summer vacation due to a higher cost of living, according to a 2023 Redfield & Wilton survey conducted for Newsweek.

Many are also dipping into their savings, making retirement feel uncertain. 60% of Americans say they don't think they're saving enough to comfortably retire, according to Primerica.

46% of middle-class Americans said they've dialed back or completely paused saving for the future and 38% said they didn't think they could afford an unexpected expense over $1000.

"The anxieties about things like owning their own home, going to college — all these things that the majority of Americans perceive as being sort of indicators of middle-class status — many of them now don't think those things are attainable for them," Sheehan said.

Buying a home may be the greatest example of a tenet of middle-class life feeling out of reach for many, and that struggle is very real rather than merely negatively perceived. 

With mortgage rates hovering close to a 23-year-high and home prices are near-record levels, Americans need to earn 80% more than they did before the pandemic to comfortably afford a home, a recent Zillow report found. First-time homebuyers, meanwhile, made up less than a third of all home purchases in 2023, one of the lowest shares ever recorded, according to the National Association of Realtors.

Vincent says owning a home seems out of the question for now. If he cut back on some expenses and lived more frugally, he estimates he could save up to $10,000 a year. At that rate, it would take him at least eight years to save up for the average down payment on a home, which notched a record $84,000 last year, according to data from CoreLogic.

"What part of that makes sense," Vincent said. 

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• The development of artificial intelligence technology is happening at a rapid pace.
• That's made it hard for Congress to regulate it, but Biden and Trump have tried by executive order.
• A lack of AI experts in government has also made it difficult for lawmakers to regulate. 

The battle over AI isn't just happening in Silicon Valley among tech giants.

It's also happening within the halls of Congress and the White House as lawmakers try to figure out how to rein in the technology without stalling progress.

Congress hasn't been able to pass a comprehensive set of federal laws and regulations around artificial intelligence — the majority of the restrictions around the innovative advancements have been made on the state level — leading President Joe Biden and former President Trump to fill in the gaps via executive decree, which provide little to no course to fight against bad actors in the industry that cross the line.

Why does the US not have federal AI regulation?

Passing legislation in Congress can be a painfully slow and sometimes impossible process. Bills are often quashed in committee and on the chamber floors. Many legislators will require amendments of their own to be added to the bill for them to consider supporting it, disrupting the process even more.

The chaos of the current session, with Republican infighting leading to the removal of former Speaker Kevin McCarthy, has made things even worse.

So far, the 118th Congress has passed just 1% of all proposed bills.

With it being increasingly difficult for Congress to pass substantive laws and establish industry regulations, presidents have used executive orders as a means of establishing precedents in groundbreaking and developing industries, such as AI.

How is the development of AI governed?

During Trump's presidency, he issued several executive orders related to AI. In 2019 he signed into effect "Maintaining American Leadership in Artificial Intelligence," which was an executive order aimed to establish the need for companies to prioritize the development of AI. And in 2020, he issued "Promoting the Use of Trustworthy AI in the Federal Government," which set principles for how federal employees could safely and effectively use AI on the job.

Other than executive orders, Trump created the National Science & Technology Council's "Select Committee on AI" in 2018, which continues to advise the White House on ways the federal government can promote AI growth in the US.

More than 80 bills directly or indirectly addressing AI have been introduced in the current 118th Congress alone, but none have passed and become law, leading Biden and his administration to follow Trump's lead and set precedents using executive order.

Biden signed the executive order on "Safe, Secure, and Trustworthy Development and Use of Artificial Intelligence" near the end of 2023. The 36-page directive set safety standards for AI researchers to follow, though critics say it provided little teeth for federal agencies to enforce it.

How do Trump's and Biden's AI policies differ?

Major AI powerhouses like Microsoft and Google have praised Biden's efforts, but Trump promised in December 2023 that he'd overturn the executive order.

"When I'm reelected, I will cancel Biden's artificial intelligence executive order and ban the use of AI to censor the speech of American citizens on day one," Trump said.

Some conservative lobbyists and think tanks have criticized Biden's regulations, arguing that the executive order abuses the Defense Production Act — a 1950 Korean War-era law empowering the president to unilaterally issue regulations and guidance to private companies during times of emergency — by violating the intended purpose of the act itself.

AI policy advocates don't seem entirely convinced of that argument.

Trump and Biden's "executive orders have contributed to a bipartisan consensus that AI ought to be trustworthy," said Jason Green-Lowe, the Center for AI Policy's executive director.

"It's changed the culture," he said. "You see sort of responsible scaling policies being rolled out on a voluntary basis by some of the more responsible labs, but then you have other companies that are just ignoring it, which right now is their legal right. Nobody's required to make sure that they're dealing with these catastrophic risks."

How are policymakers balancing regulation and innovation?

Several AI-policy experts told Business Insider that they're not completely against setting federal regulations on artificial intelligence as long as it won't cripple research.

Some experts, like Rebecca Finlay, who is the CEO of a non-profit organization called Partnership on AI, said that regulations are necessary to further innovation. Finlay's nonprofit is focused on responsibly promoting the development and regulation of AI.

"We've been very clear that you need to have regulation in place in order to advance innovation," Finlay said. "Clear rules of the road allow for more companies to be more competitive in being more innovative to do the work that needs to be done if we're really going to take the benefits of AI. One of the things that we are advocating strongly for is a level of transparency with regard to how these systems are being built and developed."

She said that she doesn't think there's a right or wrong decision between developing open or closed-source AI tools — she said she's seen "harms" from both types — as long as they're both developed responsibly.

"Rather than arguing between a binary choice between open and closed, I think it's really core that we hold all model developers and deployers accountable for ensuring that their models are developed as safely as possible," she said.

Daniel Zhang, the senior manager for policy initiatives at the Stanford Institute for Human-Centered Artificial Intelligence, echoed Finlay's hope that regulations don't stifle research.

"We want to make sure the governance around open foundation models are, for the long term, beneficial for opening innovation," Zhang said. "We don't want to too-early restrict the development of open innovation that academia, for example, academic institutions thrive on."

What are the challenges of crafting AI regulation?

One of the biggest hurdles that legislators face in regulating AI, Finlay said, is "just keeping up to the state of the science and the technology as it is developed."

She said it's difficult for lawmakers to draft regulations because most AI companies develop their models not in a "publicly funded research environment," but they do so privately until they choose to share their advancements.

"The ideal solution would be to empower some kind of office or regulator to update the laws as they go forward," Green-Lowe, from the Center for AI Policy, said,

That's not the easiest thing to accomplish.

"We're also in a moment where people are very concerned about overreach from executive power and about the proper role of bureaucracies or the civil service," Green-Lowe said. "And so there are people in Congress who are skeptical that Congress can keep up with the changes in technology, but also skeptical that the power to do so should be delegated to an agency."

He added that failing to implement a formal way of regulating the sector would effectively let companies play by their own rules, something he and the Center for AI Policy don't purport to be the best course of action.

Another challenge comes from AI experts and researchers choosing private sector jobs instead of ones in the government, a kind of "brain drain," Zhang said.

"Most of the new AI Ph.D.'s that graduate in North America go to private industry," he said, citing Stanford's 2024 AI Index Report. "Less than 40% go to government looking to create all those AI regulations and governance structures."

Lacking staffers who can fully understand the complexity of AI and its future puts more onus on an aging US Congress to regulate the far-reaching tech, a difficult task.

Zhang said there's also a common misconception that working in government provides less access to money than working in the private sector.

"That's not a hundred percent true," he said. "For governments to appeal to those technical students, I think they just need to highlight the public service aspect and then give them the resources to be able to do their jobs.

In January, the Biden Administration released a "call to service" aimed at solving this problem.

"We are calling on AI and AI-enabling experts to join us to advance this research and ensure the next generation of AI models is safe, secure, and trustworthy," the administration said.

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• Donald Trump said he doesn't care too much about his numerous legal troubles, NBC News reported.
• The former president spoke at a luncheon during the RNC's spring retreat in Florida.
• He also compared the Biden Administration to the Gestapo, the Nazi secret police force.

Donald Trump told attendees at a private donor event in Florida on Saturday that he wasn't too bothered about his numerous legal troubles.

Speaking about his criminal indictments during a luncheon at Mar-a-Lago, the former president said: "If you care too much, you tend to choke. And in a way, I don't care. It's just, you know, life is life," NBC News reported, citing audio of the event.

Nevertheless, Trump told those in attendance that he was shocked when he first found out he had been indicted.

"Once I got indicted, I said, Holy shit. I just got indicted. Me. I got indicted," Trump said, per the report.

Last month, Trump made his first appearance in court for one of his four criminal cases, facing 34 counts of falsifying business records to hide payments to adult film star Stormy Daniels.

During the Mar-a-Lago event, Trump also took the opportunity to hit out at Democrats, saying they were "running a Gestapo administration," referencing the Nazi secret police force.

"And it's the only thing they have. And it's the only way they're going to win in their opinion," he said.

"Once I got indicted, I said, well, now the gloves have to come off," Trump continued, adding that Biden was "the worst president in the history of our country. He's grossly incompetent. He's crooked as hell. He's the Manchurian candidate, he accepts massive amounts of money from China, from Russia, from Ukraine, and many other countries."

The luncheon was part of the Republican National Committee's (RNC) spring retreat in the Sunshine State. Hundreds of people came together for the event, and several donated $40,000 or more, CNN reported, citing sources familiar with the fundraiser.

Trump also brought up several potential vice president candidates onstage, NBC News reported, including South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott, New York Rep. Elise Stefanik, North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, Ohio Sen. JD Vance, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, and Florida Rep. Byron Donalds.

Sources familiar with the retreat's itinerary told CNN that attendees first gathered for a welcome reception featuring House Speaker Mike Johnson, RNC cochair Lara Trump, and House GOP Conference Chair Elise Stefanik.

Business Insider has reached out to Donald Trump's team for comment.

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• Christine Wilson from Massachusetts won her second $1 million lottery prize within 10 weeks.
• She plans to save her winnings, having opted for lump sum payments both times.
• Despite the odds being 283 billion to one, there have been several  double lottery wins.

A woman has claimed her second $1 million lottery prize within 10 weeks, playing the Massachusetts State Lottery.

Christine Wilson of Attleborough, Massachusetts, latest windfall came from the "100X Cash" $10 instant ticket game, adding to her previous win of $1 million from the "Lifetime Millions" $50 instant ticket game back in February.

She opted for the lump sum payment of $650,000 on both occasions.

Wilson used some of her previous winnings to buy an SUV. This time, she plans on putting her prize into savings.

The Family Food Mart in Mansfield, where Wilson purchased her latest winning ticket, will receive a $10,000 bonus from the Massachusetts State Lottery for making the sale.

Wilson's first $1 million prize was from Dubs's Discount Liquors, also in Mansfield.

Getting rich overnight does not always change lives

Winning the lottery even once is extremely unlikely. You have a better chance of getting struck by lightning than winning a Mega Millions or Powerball contest.

Winning more than once is remarkable, but Wilson's back-to-back wins aren't a first in lottery history.

Fellow Massachusetts residents Kevin Miller and Kenneth J Stokes hit the jackpot twice.

A UK couple, David and Kathleen Long, who won £1 million ($1.25 million) in July of 2013, banked another £1 million and a Jaguar car in March of 2015.

But getting rich overnight does not always change lives for the better — some winners have ended up in debt or even been sent to prison.

New Jersey native Evelyn Adams also won the lottery twice — in 1985 and 1986, earning her a total of $5.4 million.

However, the lucky double win didn't sate Adams' gambling addiction, and she gambled her winnings away. As of 2016, she was penniless and living in a trailer park.

Juan Hernandez of Nassau County, New York, won the New York Lottery's Deluxe scratch-off game twice. When he struck gold a second time in 2022, he was "still trying to spend the $10m" he'd won in 2019.

The odds of winning the lottery twice are 283 billion to one, according to UK National Lottery operator Camelot.

Any lucky winner should think of it as preparing for a marathon and learn to say no to friends and family, a lottery advisor previously told Business Insider.

Business Insider contacted the Massachusetts State Lottery for comment.

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• The presidential election is only 6 months away.
• President Biden and former President Trump are already competing hard for votes ahead of November.
• Right now, national and swing state polls show a close race in what is set to be a costly rematch.

With six months until Election Day, the race between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump is already in high gear.

In March, Biden and Trump clinched enough delegates to secure the Democratic and GOP presidential nominations, respectively, ahead of their party conventions.

With Biden facing only scant primary opposition and Trump easily dispatching onetime Republican challengers like Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, the stage for the November election has largely been set.

And this election is unlike any contest in recent history.

Biden, a former vice president, is aiming to portray himself as a protector of American democratic institutions and as the candidate who is not only rebuilding the country's infrastructure but boosting middle-class families along the way.

Meanwhile, Trump — who lost to Biden in the highly contentious 2020 election — is seeking to paint himself as the stronger candidate on the economy and immigration, both issues where Biden has shown significant vulnerabilities among the electorate. But Trump is also hampered by his ongoing hush-money trial in Manhattan, where the outcome could imperil his campaign.

Here's a look at where the contest stands six months out:

National polls point to a close race

National surveys show Trump averaging a 1.5% lead over Biden, according to RealClearPolling.

A recent Morning Consult poll had Biden and Trump tied at 43% support.

The most recent Harvard-Harris presidential poll showed Trump leading Biden 52% to 48%.

Meanwhile, the latest NPR/PBS/Marist survey had Biden leading Trump 50% to 48%.

The race gets even more unpredictable when Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is thrown into the mix. The independent candidate is attracting the support of 10.3% of respondents in national polls, RealClearPolling reported.

The battle will again be in the swing states

While national polls may provide a snapshot of the overall race, the race will be decided in the same seven swing states that were front and center in 2020 — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

In 2020, Biden won the election by winning core Democratic states and every major swing state except for North Carolina, which he lost by one percentage point.

Biden is already making a huge push for North Carolina. He's already visited the state several times this year. His campaign aims to have 40 staffers in the Tar Heel State by the end of May, according to The Washington Post.

It's an early investment that his campaign hopes can give him inroads among the Black, suburban, and independent voters who could make him the first Democratic presidential nominee to win the state since Barack Obama in 2008.

A win in North Carolina could also give Biden breathing room as he faces challenges in other swing states. The president won Arizona and Georgia narrowly in 2020, and he'll need to hold together an already-tenuous political coalition that includes young and minority voters, as well as a key bloc of Republicans who backed Haley but are on the fence about backing his candidacy.

Biden will also have to sell his economic message in Michigan, Nevada, and Pennsylvania to win those states again. That could be tough, given voter dissatisfaction with the economy.

Democrats are banking on abortion rights

Ever since the US Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, the issue of abortion — now free of federal protections — was punted to the states.

While Democratic-leaning states generally expanded and added protections for abortion access, the most conservative states heavily restricted the procedure, with many instituting six-week abortion bans that are unpopular with wide swaths of the electorate.

Many Democrats in the 2022 and 2023 elections found success with their pro-choice stance, as well as their opposition to a national abortion ban that has long been championed by conservatives.

While Trump has sought to jump in front of issues regarding reproductive rights, backing IVF and stating that he doesn't support a national abortion ban, Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris have hammed the GOP over abortion, warning voters that Trump and congressional Republicans cannot be trusted on the issue.

Biden and Harris are already throttling Trump over the issue as they campaign in states like North Carolina and Arizona — where the state's near-total abortion ban was recently repealed by the GOP-controlled legislature after immense pressure from Democrats.

Gaza will also be a defining issue

Biden's handling of the Israel-Hamas war has divided many Democrats, with young voters overwhelmingly opposed to US support for Israel.

The administration's actions have contributed to Biden's increased vulnerability in swing states. Young voters have responded to the conflict through high-profile demonstrations on college campuses and universities across the country — notably at Columbia University in New York, where an encampment on the Ivy League campus drew international attention for the intensity of student protests against the war. (The encampment was disbanded earlier this week.)

In Michigan, which was won by Trump in 2016 before flipping to Biden in 2020, the incumbent president continues to face intense backlash from the state's sizable Arab-American population — as well as many base Democrats — over Gaza.

For months, many of these voters have called for a permanent cease-fire, and some have withheld their support of Biden in the Democratic primaries over the issue. In February, over 100,000 Michigan primary voters selected "uncommitted" rather than vote for the president. Many of these voters backed Biden in 2020 but say their support of the president is not guaranteed in November.

It's a scenario proving difficult for Biden as he works to navigate one of the defining foreign policy issues of the moment while responding to voter frustration and anger over the humanitarian crisis in Gaza.

And it could very well decide the outcome of the election.

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• The UK is considering developing an air defense system akin to Israel's Iron Dome.
• Former top US general says the UK needs to boost defense spending.
• The prospect of more crises with Russia underscores the need for credible air defense systems.

Former US National Security Advisor General HR McMaster has said the UK must prepare for possible future conflicts by building an Israeli-style Iron Dome air defense system.

Gen. McMaster, who served as national security adviser between 2017 and 2018, told the UK news radio outlet, LBC, this week: "I think it's quite urgent for the United Kingdom, the United States, for all nations to invest more in defense."

Asked whether the UK should have an Iron Dome system, which Israel invented to intercept rockets fired by Hamas and Hezbollah militants, he said: "I think that every country is going to have to develop these kinds of defenses and long-range missiles."

Indeed, the UK is considering developing its own Iron Dome air defense system amid growing tensions with Russia and its allies.

Adm. Sir Tony Radakin, head of Britain's Armed Forces, told LBC last month that the UK is in "live conversations" about developing an air defense system like Israel's.

As Europe faces increasing geopolitical insecurity, the UK has to grapple with its inadequate air defense capabilities.

Michael Clarke, a defense and security analyst, told Business Insider that if the UK and its European allies can't defend themselves, any operations they threaten to engage in will lack credibility.

The best way to confront impending conflict is to deter it, Clarke said.

The UK and its allies need to be prepared for anything, especially as the CRINKs alliance (China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea) grows stronger, he said

While Russia is the UK's primary concern, Clarke said the CRINKs are collectively "determined to try to undermine western-based structures of international politics and rules-based systems."

The Israeli model

The Times of London said senior members of the UK government, have called for UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak to install an Iron Dome-style missile defence system for the UK.

Israel's short-range Iron Dome is a mobile all-weather air defense system that has been in service since 2011.

The formidable system boasts a success rate of up to 90% and was most recently instrumental in intercepting a barrage of missiles and attack drones launched from Iran at Israel.

However, developing a system that replicates Israel's is a costly endeavor, Clarke said. "Israel is a small country," he said, less than 10% the size of the UK.

"Israel spent a great deal of money on a three-tier system that still needs help to be effective. So, the scale of the challenge of defending airspace is huge. The fact that the Israelis can play this game of saying 'we have a dome over our whole country' is only partly true," he said.

The UK's only practical option was a "point defense" strategy, said Clarke. Point defense refers to defending a limited area or single site against threats like air attacks and guided missiles. It is more narrow and strategic than area defense.

"Can't we finally strike at London?"

Since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Russian propaganda has threatened the possibility of war with the UK, a staunch backer of Ukraine.

On a state-owned channel, Aleksey Zhuravlyov, chairman of the nationalist Rodina political party, said, "one Sarmat missile and the British Isles will be no more," Newsweek reports.

The RS-28 Sarmat is a Russian liquid-fueled intercontinental ballistic missile made by the Makeyev Rocket Design Bureau.

On another occasion, Kremlin propagandist and Putin ally Vladimir Solovyov asked, "Can't we finally strike at London?"

The UK is set to increase defense spending to 2.5% by 2030, totaling £87 billion a year.

Aside from internal discussions on an Iron Dome, the UK is in talks to join Europe's aerial defense system. The European Sky Shield Initiative seeks to establish a ground-based integrated European air defense system with anti-ballistic missile capability.

Business Insider contacted the UK Ministry of Defense for comment.

The prospect of a strategic defeat in Ukraine raises the possibility of more crises with Russia around the fringes of Europe, in which European and NATO forces in the Baltic states and other regions could mobilize.

But mobilization won't be credible without an air defense system to serve as a deterrent, according to Clarke.

"If Britain deployed its combat division to the continent and fought against the Russians, it would become combat-ineffective within 24 hours if it was subject to air attack," Clarke said.

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2024 was supposed to be easy for Wall Street's speculators. There was an improving economic picture, a clear way to trade it, and the chance to take it easy while still racking up profits. Inflation canceled that, and now it's almost certain that Wall Street's summer is canceled, too.

After 2023's glorious stock-market rally, the Street went into this year expecting nirvana — a combination of healthy corporate earnings, strong household consumption, and a final defeat of high inflation. The combination would put the Federal Reserve on a glide path to cut interest rates — a move that would reduce the cost of debt, push stocks higher, and make consumers feel richer.

But inflation proved stickier than expected, and those interest-rate cuts started to fade from view. First, Wall Street pushed back its prediction for the first cut from March to June, then to September — now investors are starting to wonder whether a cut is coming at all.

"This isn't what we were told we were signing up for, that's for damn sure," Justin Simon, a portfolio manager at Jasper Capital, told me. "We were going to get rate cuts, and everything was going to the moon. That's why people bought stocks. Now that seems relatively unlikely."

As the hope for cuts faded, the performance of major stock indexes has become decidedly "meh." The S&P 500 has slipped 0.2% since the beginning of March, when this new reality started to down on Wall Street, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq is down 0.7%. But worse than all that is the potential for higher rates to stick around long enough to change the shape of our economy and, as a result, what companies have been making money in the stock market.

That means Wall Street's fantasies of decamping to the Hamptons for the summer have shattered. No leaving the interns and junior analysts to just run the same trades that worked last year. No set-it-and-forget-it strategies pushing up portfolios. No unquestioningly buying the dip. Inflation's stubbornness has injected the market with uncertainty, which, in turn, drives volatility. Unfortunately, uncertainty and volatility do not come with a $100 lobster cobb salad from Duryea's. They generally come with pain.

When doves cry

Wall Street's expectations of sailing into a smooth summer weren't entirely its fault. While Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell tried to strike a cautious tone, the Fed's public projections for interest rates signaled that multiple rate cuts were coming in 2024. To the world of finance, that sounded like a little victory lap over inflation and meant the US would likely stick a soft landing — a Goldilocks scenario in which prices stabilize without slowing down the economy so much that it causes a recession.

But as the new year began, things started to go awry. Inflation data showed that prices were still rising at an uncomfortable pace — the core consumer price index, which strips out volatile categories such as food and energy, rose 3.8% year over year in March. The Fed's preferred measure of inflation, the core personal consumption expenditures index, has also remained stubbornly above the central bank's 2% goal. Economists started to doubt that higher prices were being driven just by corporations opportunistically jacking up prices to pad profit margins — but rather something more enduring. Wall Street really started to worry that its precious cuts weren't coming. JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon reminded everyone not to get "lulled into a false sense of security" that a soft landing was coming.

We were going to get rate cuts, and everything was going to the moon. That's why people bought stocks. Now that seems relatively unlikely.

Last week, the Fed admitted in a statement that even though the economy was on solid footing, "in recent months, there has been a lack of further progress toward the Committee's 2% inflation objective." It kept rates at current levels, reiterated its commitment to data dependence, and said it remained "highly attentive to inflation risks." In other words, there's still a chance data is telling us inflation will get worse. Some analysts, including Torsten Slok, the chief economist over at Apollo, see signs that it could turn south.

"Rising energy prices combined with the ongoing rebound in the manufacturing sector increase the likelihood that we could see an increase in goods inflation over the coming months," Slok wrote in a recent email to clients.

A scenario like that could put the Fed in a position where it might not just hold rates at 5% but also consider hiking them. At his press conference on Wednesday, Powell said hiking was "unlikely," but he didn't say it was off the table. He also didn't offer a guess as to where this persistent inflation was coming from and said we'd find out "over time."

In Wall Street's language of probabilities, that means nirvana has become considerably less likely. This isn't to say that the economy is all bad or that there's no hope. GDP for the first quarter came in at 1.6%, lower than economists expected, but the underlying details were more promising. Unemployment is still near historical lows, and wage growth continues. Consumers are still spending that money, too — driving strong retail sales. On the business side, UBS's head of equities, David Lefkowitz, said in a recent note to clients that "corporate fundamentals remain largely solid and intact" and that about 75% of the S&P 500 companies that reported first-quarter earnings had beaten estimates. This is good news, of course … unless it turns out to be bad news. The economy has to actually come in for a landing for it to be a soft one. If the US takes back off, we run the risk of inflation picking up again, which would force the Fed to take more drastic measures to rein in prices. April's job report came in at 175,000 jobs created, weaker than the 238,000 expected, but employment stayed below 4% and wage growth cooled. Wall Street loved that — it was growth, but not too much growth. Goldilocks, the weather on April 25th — "not too cold, not too hot, all you need is a light jacket."

Paradoxically, there are signs that things aren't as hunky-dory as they may appear. McDonald's missed quarterly earnings estimates for the first time in two years as, the company said, its customers were "more discriminating with every dollar they spend." Starbucks saw sales decline for the first time since 2020, in what the company's CEO called a "highly challenging environment" surrounding "pressures consumers face." Over at Pepsi, organic sales fell 2%. What all these companies have in common is that they had been able to extract more money from customers with significant price increases over the past couple of years, and now they can't. Money has tightened, and now they can't push price hikes over sales volume. Expect to see this theme repeat itself all over the market. The bad news is that this means the consumer — the engine of the US economy — is getting tired. The good news is that this means these companies won't be a source of inflation.

"I certainly hope that inflation has peaked," Silas Myers, a cofounder and the CEO of the investment firm Mar Vista Investments, told me. "But we are seeing significant cracks in consumer spending at the lower end. People are trading down products."

All this contradictory information raises a lot of questions for Wall Street. Do we actually need more interest-rate hikes, or can the Fed just wait for things to settle? If we need to keep pushing to lower inflation, just how ugly will things get? What if the inflation pickup is a head fake and, actually, the economy is weakening? Is not cutting interest rates now a mistake? You can see why this tug-of-war will keep Wall Street on its toes and off Georgica Beach.

What works, what doesn't

When rate cuts seemed guaranteed, and Wall Street's betting class was lining up which oceanfront parties to hit this year, it seemed like the market would be easy picking this year. If rates fell, there would surely be more money sloshing around in the stock market, pushing up indexes and likely crowning the same winners as the year before. But as doubt about the economy crept into Wall Street's mind, so, too, did concern about these trades.

Higher rates for longer means business models that used to work might not work anymore. Investors have to be a little more discerning. Bets that companies will develop tech and then figure out how to monetize it after the fact are already being punished compared with bets on disciplined, profit-focused operations. Take the "Magnificent Seven," a group of tech stocks that dominated the market in 2023. The fortunes of these companies — Nvidia, Tesla, Microsoft, Meta, Apple, Amazon, and Alphabet — have diverged as the market got religion about the realities of the artificial-intelligence revolution. After Meta announced bumper earnings last month, investors sent its stock crashing 10% because the House of Zuck said it would spend $35 billion to $40 billion building an AI product this year. Exactly how that investment would be monetized it couldn't say. In a world where money is more expensive, those are the types of questions the market wants answered posthaste. Microsoft and Alphabet, which have already started monetizing their investments, fared much better.

"People are really worried about a hawkish pivot because I think they own all the wrong stuff," Simon said. When a trade is en vogue on Wall Street, you can expect everyone to crowd in, and if the trade reverses, you can expect a stampede to the exit. That ultimately creates market moves so dramatic they can push down indexes and, frankly, wreck a trader's day if they're not paying attention. So it's time to pay attention.

The simplicity that Wall Street hoped for is one of the few options that's no longer on the table.

This new regime doesn't apply just to Wall Street's stock investors. The longer that higher rates in the US stick around, the more our monetary policy diverges from the rest of the world's. In the EU and the UK, inflation is receding, and rate policy looks like it's coming down. In Japan, interest rates are barely above zero. That divergence means major volatility as hot money sloshes around the world looking for the safest haven. As if to emphasize that fact, on the day of Powell's speech, the value of the Japanese yen blasted up against the dollar by 1% in one second — a massive move by currency-trading standards and a vicious reversal given that over the past year, the yen has fallen 11% against the dollar. There is a certain set on Wall Street that does not get to "rosé all day" on Hamptons summer water when currencies trade that way.

The Fed has always said there are "long and variable lags" between when it moves interest rates and when the economy feels those moves. Now the Fed is starting to admit that those lags may be longer and more variable than it thought. The simplicity that Wall Street hoped for is one of the few options that's no longer on the table. Simple — like a cold glass of lemonade on the front porch or a $210 pitcher of Gimme Shelter at Sunset Beach — is what summer is made of. That's why this year, it's canceled.

Linette Lopez is a senior correspondent at Business Insider.

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• The Subaru Ascent SUV was recently updated with fresh styling and upgraded technology.
• I loved its edgier styling, safety features, turbo engine, and comfortable cabin.
• I was disappointed with its unrefined transmission, intrusive safety tech, and fuel economy

The Ascent is Subaru's first true contender in the brutally competitive bloodsport we call the family SUV market.

I first had the chance to test a 2019 Ascent Touring six years ago. The big Subie made such a strong impression that it was a finalist for Business Insider's Car of the Year award that year.

I eventually bought my own 2022 Subaru Ascent Touring in Ice Silver Metallic.

After a few years on the market, Subaru gave the Ascent a mid-cycle refresh in 2023 with revised styling, updated infotainment, and new safety tech.

I spent a week on the roads of Atlanta with a 2024 Subaru Ascent Touring, dressed in an eye-catching Dark Mahogany Pearl paint job, to see if it can still compete against the latest from Honda and Toyota.

I found the SUV to be a well-made and capable family hauler with a great all-wheel-drive system and comfortable cabin, but its new tech and the overall driving experience still need work.

The Ascent's arrival in late 2018 was a game changer for Subaru.

For Subaru loyalists, the Ascent was nothing short of a godsend. For the first time, Forester and Outback owners could upgrade to a larger, three-row SUV from the brand.

Subaru's previous attempt at a family SUV, the B9 Tribeca, failed to garner any real consideration from most buyers due to its small size, poor performance, and oddball styling. Subaru reigned in the Tribeca's weird looks and gave it more power in 2008. Unfortunately, those efforts failed to generate market traction and Subaru eventually gave up in 2014.

A slew of new rivals hit the market in the years after Ascent's debut.

Toyota introduced an all-new 4th generation Highlander in late 2019. That same year, Hyundai introduced the Palisade while Kia launched the Telluride. The Korean sisters have garnered both sales and critical acclaim.

In 2021, Nissan rolled out their long-awaited 5th generation Pathfinder while Honda followed suit with the new 4th generation Pilot in late 2022.

The 2024 Subaru Ascent is available in 8 different trim levels.

The base 2024 Subaru Ascent starts at $34,195 in the US, while our top-spec Ascent Touring test car starts at $48,495. With fees, our test car carried an as-tested price of $49,931.

The revised front facia leads the Acsent's mid-cycle updates.

Subaru eschews anonymous but conservatively handsome styling for a much more edgy and aggressive look, punctuated by a large chrome bar across the front grille, redesigned angular LED headlights, and bumper cover. The new front fascia aligns the Ascent with Subaru's new corporate aesthetics.

Here's a closer look at the new LED headlights.

The Ascent's steering-sensitive LED headlights turn based on the steering wheel's position to help the driver see better in corners or on winding roads.

Out back, the styling updates are less pronounced.

The only noticeable changes are minor changes to the taillights on the power liftgate. The center panel of the rear bumper can be removed to make room for an optional tow hitch. The base trim Ascent can tow up to 2,000 lbs, while all other trims are rated for up to 5,000 lbs.

The Ascent received redesigned wheels with 18-inch aluminum alloys standard on base trims and larger 20-inch alloys (seen here) available on higher trims.

Overall dimensions of the Ascent remain unchanged.

It's roughly 2 inches longer than the comparable Toyota Highlander but 3 inches shorter than the Honda Pilot. Ground clearance remains a robust 8.7 inches.

On the inside, I remain impressed with the Ascent's cabin, especially, in Touring trim.

The Ascent's cabin is classic Subaru, not flashy, but the ergonomics are, for the most part, terrific. All of the buttons, knobs, and features are exactly where they should be. In other words, everything makes sense here.

The interior fit and finish are outstanding. Everything feels solidly put together with quality materials.

Changes to the interior are headlined by a redesigned center console.

The 2019-2022 Ascents' Starlink infotainment system lived in a standard 6.5-inch or optional 8.0-inch touchscreen. In addition, a small scrollable information screen that also served as the display for the Ascent's front-facing camera sat atop the center console. All that and most of the physical climate controls are now gone.

All of those functions have been incorporated into a the touchscreen.

Thankfully, the physical volume knob and temperature adjust buttons remain. It's a setup that originally debuted on the 2020 Outback wagon.

The content that once lived in the small info display now occupies a scrollable ribbon at the top of the main touchscreen.

This includes local weather, navigation, vehicle status, audio, media information, and controls for Subaru's updated X-Mode traction management system.

The virtual climate controls occupy the bottom edge. Both the top and bottom sections are permanent fixtures of the screen.

Subaru also gave the Ascent an optional surround-view camera that provides a 360-degree overhead view of the vehicle.

I'm a big fan of this view that gives you a clear view of the Ascent's surroundings. From 2019-2022, a front-view camera was available, but only on the Touring trim.

The new surround view system stitches images from its front, rear, and side cameras to create a birds-eye view of the Ascent.

I found Subaru's TomTom-powered navigation system easy to use but its graphics dated.

Most of the time, I stuck with Google Maps via Apple CarPlay. Both CarPlay and Android Auto are now wireless. Most of the time, I stuck with Google Maps via Apple CarPlay. Both CarPlay and Android Auto are now wireless.

The updated Starlink Infotainment looks great and intuitively organized. However, we did experience some lag in response time, especially when the wireless Apple CarPlay is deployed.

My fully loaded Touring tester came equipped with the 14-speaker Harman-Kardon QuantumLogic sound system. We enjoyed its rich and powerful sound.

Instead of going with a large digital display in the dash, Subaru has gone for the tried and true setup of a pair of large analog gauges flanking a central digital instrument display.

In front of the driver is a nicely contoured, leather-wrapped, heated steering wheel and a pair of paddle shifters.

The steering wheel received minor updates during the refresh with the controls for the gauge cluster's information screen now integrated into the button cluster on the left side of the wheel.

The Ascent Touring test car came with an optional rear-vision camera display embedded into the mirror.

The rear camera itself is located on the tailgate at the top of the rear window.

Near the rearview mirror is a sunglass holder with an integrated panoramic mirror handy for keeping tabs on the rest of the cabin.

The panoramic mirror complements the cabin connect feature on higher trim models that amplifies the driver's voice to passengers in the back.

The Ascent boasts a total of 19 cupholders.

However, we noticed that anything larger than a 20oz bottle will struggle to fit in many of these holders.

The Ascent can be had with a large, powered panoramic moonroof that fills the cabin with light.

I found it to be a worthwhile option even though it robbed the first and second-row occupants of about an inch of headroom.

The Ascent Touring's perforated Nappa leather seats and wood grain trim inject a dose of luxury into a cabin that puts a premium on utility.

Base trim Ascents come standard with cloth upholstery, while Premium trim vehicles come standard with stain-resistant cloth seats. Onyx Edition Ascents have StarTex water-repellent upholstery, while the Limited trim models have leather seats. Only the top-spec Touring comes with Nappa leather-trimmed seats.

We found the captain's chairs, which are also heated on the Ascent Touring, to be comfortable and supportive.

Lower trim levels of the Ascent can be had with a second-row bench seat to boost capacity to 8 passengers. However, most higher trim levels come equipped with second-row captain's chairs with room for 7.

Passengers in the back have their own climate controls, USB-C and USB-A charging plugs, as well as a 120V AC plug.

Second-row passengers are treated to 38.6 inches of legroom.

Third-row passengers get 31.7 inches of legroom, which is roughly the same as a coach seat on an airplane.

Adults can fit comfortably on short trips around town, but these seats are best reserved for children.

Open up the powered tailgate and you'll find 17.6 cubic feet of cargo space behind the third row.

There is also an underfloor compartment where you'll find the cargo cover, the jack, and the access point for the spare tire.

With the third row folded, capacity increases to 42.1 cubic feet

And with all rear seats down, the maximum cargo capacity behind the driver's seat is 72.8 cubic feet.

I didn't love how the captain's chairs don't fold fully flat, which prevents someone from fully utilizing the Ascent's cargo-hauling capabilities.

Power for the Ascent comes from Subaru's F24F 2.4-liter, turbocharged, horizontally opposed four-cylinder engine.

The F24F debuted in 2019 with the Ascent but can now be found on other Subaru models like the Outback. Here, it produces a strong 260 horsepower and 277 ft. lbs. of torque. It's mated to Subaru's Lineartronic continuously variable transmission or CVT.

Our Ascent, equipped with the optional 20-inch wheels, boasts EPA fuel economy figures of 19 mpg city, 25 mpg highway, and 21 mpg combined. Those equipped with 18-inch wheels are about 1 mpg higher across the board. The EPA number put the Ascent on par with the likes of the Honda Pilot and Hyundai Palisades but falls a few MPG short of the Toyota Highlander.

In practice, Subaru's EPA figures are pretty optimistic. On our test car, we hovered around 19 mpg combined of regular unleaded gas.

As for my 2022 Ascent, It has never been able to reach 25 mpg on the highway. In fact, I've only reached 23mpg once in highway driving. Around town, my Ascent is usually around 18mpg.

As with almost all Subarus, the Ascent is equipped with the brand's signature Symmetrical All-Wheel-Drive system.

Unlike many AWD systems found in competitors, which only send power to the rear wheels when it detects traction loss, Subaru's system constantly sends power to all four wheels.

So, what's it like to drive?

The Subaru Ascent delivers a pleasant and reassuring driving experience. The Ascent stands out for its confident handling and strong acceleration in a segment that doesn't prioritize driving pleasure.

When it debuted in 2019, I, along with many in the industry, was unsure about pairing a small turbocharged four-cylinder in a 4,600-pound, 8-passenger SUV. However, the Subie quickly proved myself and other doubters incorrect. In fact, it has become a bit of a trendsetter as others, like the Toyota Highlander and Chevrolet Traverse, have dumped their big V6 engines in favor of turbo fours.

The Subie remains peppy around town while providing gutsy acceleration down the highway on-ramps. The Ascent never felt short on power, even when loaded with cargo and people.

According to Car and Driver, the Ascent can make the sprint from zero to 60mph in a more than respectable 6.8 seconds.

However, the Ascent does have its imperfections.

The continuously variable transmission is the weakest point in Ascent's driving experience and its drive train. The CVTs on earlier Ascents including my own, can feel abrupt or have a tendency to surge when accelerating at lower speeds. That was still the case on our 2024 test car but the effects are far more muted and barely noticeable.

Then there's the CVT whine. Upon initial startup, the Ascent's transmission emits a high-pitched whining noise while under acceleration. The noise, reminiscent of a dying torque converter on a traditional automatic, disappears once the vehicle reaches normal operating temperature. Even though the transmission delivers power normally when emitting the disconcerting noise, it feels grossly out of place in a $50,000 SUV.

With that said, Subaru's Lineartronic unit is one of the most capable CVTs on the market and is able to provide a serviceable approximation of a traditional automatic transmission. The pre-programmed shift points that mimic the feel of an 8-speed automatic did help mitigate the dreaded CVT drone under hard acceleration.

Subaru's signature EyeSight Driver Assist System also received major changes in 2023 with the addition of a new wide-angle camera.

Subaru's EyeSight suite of driver's assistance features includes adaptive cruise control with lane centering, lane departure warning, pre-collision braking, automatic emergency steering, and pre-collision throttle management, which reduces power from the engine when it detects potential danger ahead.

I found the updated system to be excellent, building upon the strong performance of previous iterations. I found the system less intrusive and smoother in operation than the unit on my 2022 Ascent Touring.

The adaptive cruise control function now allows for 1 mile-per-hour speed adjustments. On 2019-2022 Ascents, you could only adjust the speed setting in 5-mile-per-hour increments.

However, I have a small gripe with the adaptive cruise control function. The steering wheel buttons that adjust following distance just don't make sense. To my brain, the button with an arrow that points forward toward the vehicle ahead should reduce following while the one with the arrow pointing backward should increase following distance. On the Subaru, those buttons do the exact opposite. I've owned my Ascent for a year and a half now and I still get it wrong when I use adaptive cruise control.

Subaru's new DriverFocus system uses a camera mounted on top of the front dash where the small information screen once lived to scan the driver's eye and head movements constantly.

The reason for the feature is good and pure. It gives visual and auditory alerts to the driver in case they are distracted or fall asleep. Unfortunately, the road to hell is paved with good intentions, and the system in everyday use feels more akin to an overeager drill sergeant, ready a moment's notice to yell at you for shifting your gaze to adjust the volume knob or to take a sip of coffee. The system can be turned off, but will automatically re-engage the next time you start the car.

Ascent owners can remotely start, lock, and unlock their vehicles using their smartphones through the MySubaru App.

The app also provides diagnostic information on the vehicle's various systems and allows owners to track the vehicle's location.

Subaru's latest updates keep the Ascent a worthy option for those seeking something outside the status quo.

When I first reviewed the Subaru Ascent back in 2018, I was wowed by its user-friendly design, refined cabin, a suite of standard safety systems, easy-to-use infotainment, and gutsy turbocharged engine.

All of that remains true, but just to a lesser extent.

Time and tide wait for no man and the SUV market has moved forward greatly since 2018. What was once a fresh new contender is now an aging veteran. The Ascent could really benefit from some sort of hybridized drivetrain, further refinement of its infotainment system, and a traditional automatic transmission.

And these are all changes that may come with the next generation of Subaru Ascent.

But for now, if you're searching for a dependable family SUV with a great personality and a world-class AWD system, I can think of no better choice than the Ascent.

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• A Cleveland Uber driver took home $17,000 in 2023 after commissions and vehicle expenses. 
• He said he's tried a variety of driving strategies, but that none have made much of a difference. 
• Safety concerns are another reason he's considering quitting ride-hailing. 

George, a full-time Uber driver in Cleveland, was once quite satisfied with his ride-hailing gig. But things have changed.

The 40-year-old, who has been driving for Uber since 2017, is considering quitting and becoming a truck driver, he previously told Business Insider via email.

"I used to sing the praises of Uber and recommend doing Uber to people looking for a business opportunity and one where a decent income can be made — but no longer," said George, whose identity is known to BI but he asked to use a pseudonym due to his fear of professional repercussions.

George said he's tried a variety of earnings strategies in recent years, but that none of them have proven to be both successful and sustainable.

Last year, George made more than $109,000 in gross earnings from ride-hailing, according to documents viewed by BI. But after Uber's commissions, car maintenance, gas, and other driving expenses were accounted for, he took home roughly $17,000, about 16% of his gross earnings. In 2021, he took home roughly 19% of his gross earnings.

He said he typically drives between 45 and 55 hours each week and estimated that after expenses like gas and maintenance, he earned about $17 an hour in 2023 — excluding depreciation and insurance costs.

George is one of several Uber and Lyft drivers who have told Business Insider their gigs are less profitable than they were a few years ago. Many have accused ride-hailing giants of taking a larger cut of rider fares, while some have pointed to growing driver competition and high vehicle expenses. These frustrations have led some drivers to protest and call for higher guaranteed pay.

In February, an Uber representative told BI that "the vast majority of drivers are satisfied" and that "as of last quarter, drivers in the US were making about $33 per utilized hour" before expenses.

Many ride-hailing drivers are actively tracking their income and expenses to make sure driving is worth their time. George shared the top ride-hailing strategies he's tried, what worked and didn't, and another reason — in addition to a declining income — he's considering ditching ride-hailing.

Some strategies have been effective, but none have moved the needle

George said he's tried "cherry picking" — only accepting trips that pay a minimum of $1 a mile. But he said he often finds himself accepting rides below this threshold that take him to busier areas.

Drivers have told Business Insider that it's easier to be picky with rides when one drives part-time and is less reliant on ride-hailing income. A low acceptance rate can also make it difficult for drivers to retain their driver status, which can provide perks like savings at select gas stations.

George said he tries to drive on the weekends as much as possible, when the demand is "incredibly high." But he said this comes with a risk.

"I do it with the advanced knowledge that I could deal with someone puking in the vehicle, reducing how much time I would have to drive due to clean-up requirements and then get back to work once it was cleaned to my satisfaction," he said.

While this concern is often in the back of his mind, he said there have only been a couple of occasions where he's had to clean up after a sick passenger.

George said driving at night — when ride demand is higher and driver supply is lower in his area — has been fairly effective. He's also tried working more during the daytime, when he said ride demand can be fairly high. But he said this strategy didn't meaningfully increase his earnings, in part because he could only complete so many rides.

"I'd find myself in a massively high volume of traffic, and I would either sit with or without my passenger in the car but still lose time," he said. "I prefer the lesser levels of traffic to reduce stress and anxiety caused by others' poor driving and prevent myself from getting involved in an accident."

George added that working high-demand days, like the Wednesday before Thanksgiving and St. Patrick's Day, can be profitable. But there are only so many of these days throughout the year, and when traffic is accounted for, his total earnings aren't always that much higher than a typical day.

"Regardless of my strategy in Cleveland, my earnings pretty much remain the same," he said.

Safety concerns have been frustrating

While his financial challenges are the primary reason George is considering quitting ride-hailing, he said he's also had some safety concerns.

"We drivers know nothing about our passengers, yet the passengers know evening about us," he said. When booking a ride, passengers can see driver names, pictures, license plates, vehicle models, how many trips they've completed, and how long they've been driving for the platform.

"What we see is whatever name is given and a score, nothing else," he added, noting that the passenger's name isn't always accurate.

"I recently had a passenger use 'Yu-Gi-Oh' as their name," he said, referring to the popular card game.

In April, Uber rolled out a new rider verification program in several US cities, not including Cleveland, that will put a blue checkmark on the accounts of riders whose identity has been verified. Uber said the majority of riders will have this done automatically, though some may need to upload an ID to do so.

This program will allow drivers to decline a ride when a passenger's identity hasn't been verified.

"Strengthening rider verification has been a top request from drivers across the country," Roger Kaiser, head of safety at Uber, said in a statement about the update. "Uber's new verification process and verified rider badge that will be visible to drivers are important steps to help provide drivers with more peace of mind while they are out on the road."

Uber said it plans to expand this program to more cities in the coming months.

Regardless of the update, if George's earnings don't improve, he said he will likely try to pursue other options. However, while he makes that transition, he said he has no choice but to keep driving.

"There are a number of frustrations because I only want to better my life," George said. "But because of the situation as it is, I continue to run into a brick wall."

Are you a gig worker willing to share your story about pay, schedule, and tipping? Are you struggling to find a better job? If so, reach out to this reporter at jzinkula@businessinsider.com.

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