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• My husband and I have been married for 40 years and had four kids. 
• He's so hard working, and at one point he had three jobs to make ends meet. 
• He's about to turn 68 and retire, and is terrified of the future. 

Like many boomers, my husband and I have counted the days until retirement. Now that the time is quickly approaching, my husband is suddenly ambivalent about his future.

Since starting his first job when he was only 14, he was socially programmed during the 1970s to embrace the role of a financial provider.

We've been married for 40 years, and I've never known a man with a stronger work ethic than my husband. At times, he worked three jobs simultaneously to make ends meet while we raised four children in a tiny, two-bedroom home.

He's terrified of retiring

Three years ago, when he was eligible for retirement, I was excited at the prospect of checking off our bucket list: buying an RV to travel around the US. But several months before he was to retire, we were hit with unexpected medical bills and major home repairs that drained our savings. My husband insisted on working one more year to get caught up on the bills. I reluctantly agreed, doubling my remote job hours to help pull us out of debt faster.

In July, my husband turns 68 and is still uncertain about leaving his ground maintenance job at an upscale condo. While most boomers are thrilled to leave the rat race and rack up their flying miles, my husband is terrified of leaving his beloved job.

Physical work outdoors is second nature to him, and he worries that he'll become bored, lazy, and overweight without it.

Although he's convinced that his mind and body will deteriorate without his job, I see how the physical labor is taking a toll on him. He lives with chronic back pain and joints that stiffen to the point that he has trouble getting out of bed in the morning.

I tell him it's time to quit, but he's not ready despite having a healthy retirement pension. He has a special connection with his tenants, and the respect they give him fulfills his sense of purpose. For these reasons, he's having trouble understanding what he's physically capable of doing. I also believe it goes deeper than that; he fears losing his identity as the breadwinner in the family.

I'm ready for a more flexible lifestyle

Deprogramming someone conditioned to work full-time was more difficult than I'd anticipated. But recently, I convinced my husband to cut back his hours in exchange for taking the leap and purchasing a small RV. Buying into our bucket list dream is the best decision we could've made for our future and gives us so much to look forward to. We're already taking short trips around the state, and I can see him warming up to the idea of having flexible hours to travel anywhere, anytime.

Even more surprising, my husband bought a yellow tandem bike for us to exercise together. It was tricky initially, but we wobble less now and feel re-energized after taking a few spins around the neighborhood.

After spotting a pickleball match at the park during one of our rides, my husband said he'd like to learn the game. I pointed out that most players were his age (or older) and likely retired — but staying active and engaged in the community.

He's starting to see the opportunities

I'm finally making progress in convincing him to retire. He sees all the fun opportunities to stay fit, travel, and meet new friends —whether on a pickleball court or an RV campsite.

For him, the key is staying busy during retirement and learning to embrace his freedom. He also realizes the importance of maximizing his energy by doing what matters most, simply because we don't know how much time we have left together.

Recently, while riding the tandem bike, my husband said, "We're really getting the hang of this," and I couldn't agree more. With an endless bucket list of possibilities in retirement, we're riding in sync through life, one pedal at a time.

Marcia Kester Doyle is a Yahoo Life Columnist and the author of "Who Stole My Spandex? Life In The Hot Flash Lane." You can find her at http://www.marciakesterdoyle.com

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• Chinese exporters are reportedly going "underground" as domestic banks pullback from transaction business with Russia, Reuters reported.
• Many lenders have restricted transactions with Moscow, curbing payment options for Chinese firms.
• Alternative channels include money brokers, and the possible use of cryptocurrencies.

Tighter US scrutiny of Beijing's trade ties is sending domestic exporters underground, Reuters exclusively reported on Monday.

Chinese firms involved in the Russian market are reportedly finding alternative ways to facilitate trade with its Northern neighbor, as they no longer can rely on big banks to finance such settlements. 

"Transactions between China and Russia will increasingly go through underground channels," a Chinese trade body head told Reuters: "But these methods carry significant risks."

For instance, one unnamed Chinese manufacturer told the outlet that it may have to turn to currency brokers operating on the border with Russia, as they could potentially help settle payments.

The search for alternatives is a direct consequence of Washington's growing concern over trade between the two capitals. China's commercial shipments have been accused of supplying Russia's military industry, spurring US lawmakers to start drafting sanctions against Chinese banks that facilitate this trade.

"I reiterated our serious concern about the PRC providing components that are powering Russia's brutal war of aggression against Ukraine," Secretary of State Antony Blinken said of the People's Republic of China last week.

In the face of possible sanctions, a number of financial institutions have voluntarily restricted Russia-related transactions, including some of China's biggest state banks. 

For exporters, this has also meant a pullback from Russia's market, given the challenges of pursuing business outside of official channels, Reuters said.

For those who try, money brokers are one option. Cryptocurrency could also provide an answer, even though the asset has been banned in China since 2021. But the restriction hasn't stopped China's strained investors from seeking out crypto this year, and could help exporters bypass know-your-customer channels.

While some smaller banks are still open to facilitating business between the countries, its led to months-long queues for those who want to open an account — an issue seen among dealers on both sides of the border.

Lenders in China aren't the only ones rethinking their ties with Russia. Restrictions have also tightened in countries such as the United Arab Emirates, Turkey, and even Austria, all resulting from rising US sanctions rhetoric.

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• Once ChatGPT hit the scene at the end of 2022, Wall Street ramped up its efforts in AI.
• Business Insider has reported on how some of finance's biggest names are approaching the new tech.
• See how firms from Goldman Sachs to Blackstone are using it. 

Generative AI has had Wall Street abuzz since the introduction of Open AI's ChatGPT in late 2022.

Business Insider has been reporting on how some of finance's biggest players are approaching artificial intelligence, from how it might impact jobs to how to use it to cut costs and ramp up efficiencies. It might even be the sector to end the drought in dealmaking.

Experts in the space are in high demand as banks and investment giants race to understand and implement AI. However, there's a level of trepidation, and most are early in experimenting with different use cases.

Here is what we know about how Wall Street is embracing AI:

Banks accelerated their AI research and use cases due to the rise of ChatGPT

We identified 17 of the top AI executives and technologists to know at the country's biggest banks.

• How the 6 biggest US banks are thinking about AI and the 17 executives leading the strategy

JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said banks can win the AI battle against fintech in an earnings call this fall. Dimon laid out his vision for how America's largest bank will win this race through data. Meet the leaders of that mission.

• Jamie Dimon says he's out to win the AI arms race. See who he's put in charge of this critical mission.

Goldman Sachs' chief information officer and head of machine learning quants say we are at an inflection point with AI. Large language models, the form of AI behind ChatGPT, could transform how Wall Street does business. Marco Argenti and Dimitris Tsementzis outlined three areas where the bank is experimenting with LLMs.

• Inside Goldman Sachs' plans for AI, from helping non-tech workers do more with software to streamlining how code is documented

Deutsche Bank is aggressively experimenting with AI capabilities to transform the bank.

The bank is on a hiring spree, trying to more than double its AI employee base of around 300, but uncertainty around regulation, talent wars, and the cost of scaling the tech won't make it easy.

• Deutsche Bank wants to transform its business with generative AI. The German bank's tech chief lays out its strategy as it hires hundreds.

For a look into how America's biggest banks have been thinking about innovating through AI, just take a look at the patents they've filed through the years. Data from consultancy Evident shows how banks are using the tech in everything from trading to UX.

• How Wall Street's biggest banks are actually looking at using AI, according to patent filings

AI is entering the deal room. Investment bankers at nine top firms predict that AI will trigger a wave of M&A and IPOs. Here are 11 bankers poised to lead the AI revolution for Wall Street.

• Wall Street is gearing up for an AI shopping spree. Meet 11 bankers poised to come out on top.

Hedge funds have been on an AI hiring tear as firms look to solidify their teams and strategies

Top AI executives at hedge funds are tasked with setting their companies' AI agendas and ensuring that research and tech development progress is shared across the firm. These execs aren't always responsible for building the technology. For some, their role is influencing—or advocating for — its use among internal stakeholders, like portfolio managers, business leaders, and fund founders.

• How 9 hedge funds, including Millennium and AQR, are thinking about AI — and the 11 experts leading the charge

Bridgewater plans to launch a fund next July that will be driven by AI. The fund's AIA Labs is working to replicate every stage of the investment process with machine learning. The firm's co-chief investment officer and chief scientist outlined the plans of the world's largest hedge fund.

• One of Bridgewater's top investors explains why the world's largest hedge fund is handing the investment process over to AI in a new fund

Balyasny Asset Management is in the midst of building the AI equivalent of a senior analyst. Charlie Flanagan, the head of applied AI at the $21 billion hedge fund, broke down his plan to amass a collection of bots to automate grunt work for analysts.

• How $21 billion Balyasny is building an AI equivalent of a senior analyst

Man Group, the largest publicly listed hedge fund with $161.2 billion in assets under management, launched a new data and machine learning group focused on generative AI in October. Tim Mace, who heads the department, outlined new capabilities his team is developing.

• The new AI head at Man Group, the largest publicly listed hedge fund, breaks down his plans to change how investors work

Interviews with 11 AI executives, recruiters, vendors, and consultants working on Wall Street lifted the hood on the cultural challenges hedge funds might face as they use their deep pockets to lure in AI talent. These leaders can struggle to gain the trust of business leaders and break into investment teams, and AI researchers have struggled with hedge funds' penchant for secrecy.

• Inside the rocky marriage of hedge funds and top AI talent

Other asset managers are also trying to figure out how AI can boost their dealmaking and investment skills

As private equity giants place insurance firms at the center of their private-credit businesses, Blackstone is hoping AI will give it a leg up to capture more of the market. Here's how the firm is giving its insurance clients an edge with revved-up risk management capabilities.

• How Blackstone is using AI to win over big insurance companies hungry for private credit

Swedish PE giant EQT built an AI engine called Motherbrain that has changed how its investors source deals. ChatGPT enables the investing giant to take the next step with its AI ambitions.

• EQT is using ChatGPT 'to make cyborgs' out of its dealmakers. Here's how.

AllianceBernstein has been building a team focused on AI and data science since 2017.

Andrew Chin, AB's head of investment solutions and data science, talked to BI about how the asset manager uses AI to get an edge, save analysts hours of work, and improve risk management.

• How $704 billion money manager AllianceBernstein uses AI across everything from research to operations to save hundreds of thousands

AI is shaking up the tech talent market on Wall Street, from creating new jobs to changing what it takes to be a coder.

Banks, hedge funds, and private equity firms are switching into hiring gear thanks, in part, to a seemingly insatiable demand for AI. Five recruiters outline the most in-demand tech roles on Wall Street

• Here are the most in-demand tech roles on Wall Street and how much they pay, according to 5 top recruiters

AI is creating entirely new jobs on Wall Street. Here's one, which has some private equity firms shelling out pay packages of up to $2 million to drum up AI at portfolio companies.

• Private equity firms are 'clamoring' to hire AI executives with some offering pay packages of up to $2 million

Blackstone recently hired an AI exec from Walmart to apply the technology at its some 230 portfolio companies.

• From Walmart to Wall Street: Blackstone hires AI whiz to supercharge its portfolio companies

AI is redefining what it takes to be a software engineer on Wall Street. Top tech execs from Goldman Sachs and Citi open up about why they want their developers to have liberal arts degrees.

• What does Goldman Sachs want in a coder? For them to have studied philosophy.

Business Insider spoke to five industry experts to get their take on how ChatGPT and its underlying tech could be applied to various sectors of financial services.

• ChatGPT could upend jobs across Wall Street. Here's how 6 areas of finance, from investment banking to wealth management, might be impacted.

AI could improve the lives of investment bankers by taking on some tedious tasks, but it can also make it harder to break into and alter the skills required for entry.

• How AI will change the job of the junior banker and raise the bar to entry

As financial firms' AI strategies come into focus, they're hiring more technologists with specialized skills. For those who want to land an AI job on Wall Street, here's everything you need to know about how tech skills and roles are changing.

• The biggest banks are fighting over AI talent. Here are the roles finance firms are looking to hire for, and what skills you need to get them.

Startups are looking to capitalize on Wall Street's AI fever.

Wall Street firms know the pains of having to satisfy regulators, but advancements in AI are introducing a whole new level of scrutiny and complexity. Meet this startup, which automates some of the most time-intensive parts of the risk management process.

• Here's the pitch deck this AI risk management startup used to raise $8 million in a round led by Point72 Ventures

Louisa AI is a startup built to suggest potential deals for investment bankers and venture capital investors. The fintech, which was born inside Goldman Sachs by a former Goldman managing director, has suggested $800 million in deal values per quarter across a handful of clients.

• See the pitch deck that helped a former Goldman Sachs exec raise $5 million for an AI-powered networking startup that feeds deal ideas to bankers.

Wall Street has a reputation for a hard-charging work culture, something that every junior banker learns in their life. Gabe Stengel was one such banker, sometimes staying up until 5 a.m. to create earnings summaries or to pull together presentations for superiors while at Lazard. Stengel knew there had to be a better way.

• See the pitch deck that helped former investment bankers raise a $7 million seed round for their generative 'AI consigliere' to bankers and analysts

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• Spotify chief Daniel Ek has sold $176.3 million worth of stock this year.
• Spotify shares have leapt 60% year-to-date.
• Ek isn't the only tech luminary to cash out amid ballooning value.

Daniel Ek, Spotify's cofounder and CEO, has sold $176.3 million worth of his stock in the streaming service this year, as its shares continue to surge.

On April 24, Ek sold roughly 400,000 shares worth $118,800,000, according to an SEC filing. In a separate transaction in February, he sold 250,000 shares worth $57,505,000, per filings.

The sales come as Spotify's stock has grown substantially in recent months — to the tune of roughly 60% year-to-date.

The company reported record profitability last quarter — though Ek acknowledged that Spotify underestimated the impact of laying off 1,500 people in December (as part of 2,500 in total cuts in 2023.)

Ek is one of many prominent business execs offloading shares amid explosive growth. As of February, Jeff Bezos, Jamie Dimon, and Mark Zuckerberg had sold stock in their respective companies worth about $9 billion — as shares of Amazon, JPMorgan, and Meta ballooned.

And Ek — who famously hasn't taken a salary since 2017 — also isn't the only Spotify exec selling shares this year. Fortune notes that other members of Spotify's C-suite, plus former CFO Paul Vogel, have also sold tens of millions of dollars in stock this year.

Spotify did not immediately respond to a request for comment from Business Insider.

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• Hermès, a luxury Italian brand that's existed for decades, is getting Gen Z's attention, a new poll says.
• The company is known for its highly-coveted Birkin bag that's dominating the resale market.
• Young shoppers have shown they're more loyal to luxury brands than their parents.

Gen Z has some seriously expensive taste, especially considering half of them aren't out of college yet.

A recent poll by Ad Age found that the top brand getting the attention of those born between 1997 and 2012 is Hermès in the first quarter of 2024. The luxury Italian brand is known for its exclusive and highly-coveted handbags like the Birkin and Kelly bags.

Gen Z and millennials have led the charge in driving up sales in the luxury market, so it's no surprise that a brand known for fetching five figures for bags is at the top the list.

And the secondhand market looks to be where it's at for young shoppers.

In 2023, TheRealReal reported that the Birkin bag had the highest resale value with a 127% return on investment and that demand for "fair condition bags" was up 130%.

Shopping for a brand new Birkin isn't as easy as scrolling an app. Hermès is in hot water over its sales practices that some say require clients to spend money on other products before they can purchase the in-demand Birkin bag.

Over the past year, Hermès' stock has outpaced its competitors like luxury giant LVMH, and it's done so without giving out free bags to influencers and celebrities.

Despite the attention from Gen Z, Hermès doesn't have an official TikTok account.

Outside its iconic leather bags, the family-run company is also known for its lavish silk scarves — sometimes seen accessorizing a Birkin — and its $1,900-plus throw blankets.

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• Nancy Walton Laurie is the daughter of Walmart cofounder James "Bud" Walton.
• Her net worth is $9.10 billion, according to Bloomberg's Billionaires Index.
• Here's what we know about the Walmart heiress.

While Sam Walton is the better-known cofounder of Walmart, he didn't start the world's largest retailer by himself.

Walton had help from his younger brother, James "Bud" Walton, who left behind his stake in the company to his two children, daughters Ann Walton Kroenke and Nancy Walton Laurie, when he died in 1995.

His younger daughter, Nancy, made headlines last year when her $300 million superyacht, Kaos, was spray-painted by climate activists proclaiming the message "You consume, others suffer."

Here's what you need to know about the billionaire Walmart heiress:

Nancy Walton Laurie, 72, is the youngest daughter of James "Bud" Walton, who cofounded Walmart with his brother, Sam Walton. The brothers opened the first Walmart in 1962 in Rogers, Arkansas.

She currently lives in Henderson, Nevada, and Los Angeles, according to Bloomberg.

Sources: Bloomberg

In 1973, she graduated from the University of Memphis, known then as Memphis State, with a bachelor's degree in English.

Source: Bloomberg

She met her future husband, Bill Laurie, at the university, where he played basketball. His team made it to the 1973 NCAA finals.

Source: Memphis Daily News

The couple had a daughter, Elizabeth Paige Laurie, in 1982. Paige was accused of paying a fellow student $20,000 to do her homework for three and a half years during her time at USC and in 2005, she surrendered her degree.

Source: LA Times

When James "Bud" Walton died in 1995, Nancy inherited around half of her father's 40 million shares in Walmart, while her older sister, Ann Walton Kroenke, received the rest. Nancy owns less than a 5% stake in the company, according to Bloomberg. She is not actively involved in Walmart's operations.

Source: Bloomberg

Nancy is the 269th richest person in the world as of April 29, 2024, according to The Bloomberg Billionaires Index, with an estimated net worth of $9.10 billion.

Source: Bloomberg

Nancy's cousin, Alice Walton, is one of the world's richest women and for a brief time was named the richest woman in America.

Source: Business Insider

Collectively, members of the Walton family own an estimated stake of around 45% of Walmart.

Source: Forbes

Nancy is a patron of the arts. In 1998, she established a dance school called the Columbia Performing Arts Center in Columbia, Missouri.

Source: New York Times

She also owned a contemporary ballet company called the Cedar Lake Ensemble in New York City. She established the company in 2002. In 2004, she paid $11.37 million to build out "a 191-seat theater, a rehearsal studio and offices for her company," according to the New York Times. The company closed in 2015.

Source: New York Times; New York Times

Nancy and her husband owned the St. Louis Blues hockey team from 1999 to 2005. Today, they have a commercial real estate portfolio, multiple homes, and two yachts, according to Forbes.

Sources: Como Mag; Globe Newswire; Forbes

One of Nancy's yachts, called Kaos, was the subject of news last year when climate activists spray-painted it.

Members of Spanish environmental group Futuro Vegetal last year spray-painted the yacht as it was docked at a port in Ibiza, an island off the coast of Spain.

The 361-feet long yacht is worth an estimated $300 million and includes a swimming pool, cinema, spa, and aquarium, according to Yacht Bible.

After activists spray-painted the stern of the yacht in red and black, they held up a sign that read "You consume others suffer."

A video of the event, and of workers hosing down the paint afterwards was uploaded online.

—FuturoVegetal🍒 (@FuturoVegetal) July 16, 2023

//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

 

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• From deeps rate cuts to a potential rate hike in 2024, one firm has changed its forecast in a big way.
• Macquarie said the resilient economy means potential interest rate cuts won't happen until 2025.
• "The next change may be a hike, which would prompt a new wave of broad-based US dollar strength," Macquarie said.

Economists at Macquarie have made a big about-face on their projections for interest rates in 2024. 

In December, Macquarie said that the Federal Reserve would aggressively cut interest rates in the second half of the year by as much as 225 basis points. Assuming the central bank moves the federal funds rate down by 25 basis point increments, that would equate to nine interest rate cuts just this year. 

That rate cut forecast was driven by "a continued moderation in core inflation and an undesirable rise in unemployment," Macquarie economists David Doyle and Neil Shankar said at the time.

But fast forward just a few months and the economic picture has changed in a big way: inflation has shown signs of rebounding and the US economy, driven mainly by consumers, has remained incredibly resilient.

That lack of economic weakness has led to a stark shift in interest rate forecasts, with even the Federal Reserve suggesting that its initial projections of three interest rate cuts this year could dwindle to one rate cut or even none.

Strategists at Macquarie said in a note on Monday that the chances of a Fed interest rate cut this year are slim to none and that an interest-rate hike is possible. A potential rate hike would shock markets, as few have called for such a move despite a string of hotter-than-expected inflation reports from January through March.

"Fresh US data has prompted our US economist to push out his projection of the start of the Fed's easing cycle to 2025. We also don't rule out that the next change may be a hike, which would prompt a new wave of broad-based US dollar strength," Macquarie said in a note on Monday.

Last week's release of first-quarter GDP growth and PCE inflation data suggested continued "stickiness" in inflation, and solid corporate earnings results continue to illustrate that most of the US economy is on solid footing.

That means that the Fed's upcoming FOMC meeting this week could result in a hawkish press conference from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell on Wednesday.

"We expect, in any case, that the Fed's communications after the FOMC meeting this week will have a uniformly hawkish tone, conveyed primarily through the Statement," Macquarie said.

That could be a double whammy for a stock market that had been largely fixated on interest rate cuts this year.

"What is increasingly ominous too is the prospect that the next policy rate change may be a hike, even if the policy bias at the Fed is unchanged. Even if stock investors ignore that – on the premise that it would be just an offset to better nominal growth in the US – the threat of a hike certainly would prompt a new wave of broad-based USD strength," Macquarie said.

A rising US dollar is a headwind for US companies that have operations overseas, as it reduces their international profits due to currency conversions. 

Macquarie wasn't the only firm forecasting aggressive interest rate cuts this year. In December, UBS predicted that a US recession would spark the Fed to cut interest rates by a whopping 275 basis points. 

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• South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem's forthcoming book reveals she shot and killed her family dog.
• She said the 14-month-old  dog bit her and attacked her family's chickens.
• Who is she trying to impress by revealing this?

After The Guardian published excerpts from South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem's forthcoming book detailing how she killed her daughter's young dog, the rising Republican politician has doubled down on the decision as a matter of principle.

According to her book, "No Going Back," Noem owned a Wirehaired Pointer puppy named Cricket. The 14-month-old dog, Noem said, had an "aggressive personality" and hadn't been trained to hunt properly.

Noem eventually decided to kill Cricket by bringing her to a gravel pit and shooting her. She also killed a "nasty and mean" goat that same day, according to her book.

After receiving vitriol from both Republicans and Democrats for the killings, Noem defended her actions on X. "I followed the law and was being a responsible parent, dog owner, and neighbor," she wrote.

Who, exactly, is Noem trying to win over by publicly sharing such a gruesome act?

Not South Dakota voters.

Noem, who won reelection in 2022, isn't eligible for another term in the governor's mansion. And while she's become a frequent presence on right-wing television, bragging about killing family pets usually isn't the way one goes about building their brand and personal credibility.

Is it possible this was aimed at former President Donald Trump and his advisors?

Noem has been a part of several of Trump's campaign rallies over the last year and is being floated by pundits as his possible vice presidential running mate.

Trump has spoken negatively about dogs and didn't own one while in the White House — the closest he ever publicly got to one there was when awarding a medal to an injured dog. And he famously likes leaders who he perceives as tough and mean.

But given the universal backlash, it's hard to imagine that Noem's brutal admission in her book would help her win him over for a possible veep spot.

Whatever her reasons, admitting she gruesomely and needlessly killed her dog is not something people will let her live down anytime soon. Just ask Mitt Romney.

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• The Fed's reliance on "flawed" inflation data to keep interest rates high will spur a policy mistake, David Rosenberg says.
• The latest PCE and GDP data may be misrepresenting the actual state of the economy.
• The Fed has been too optimistic about jobs data that's based on nonfarm payrolls, Rosenberg said. 

The Federal Reserve's fixation on a streak of "flawed" data to justify keeping interest rates higher for longer is bound to spark a policy mistake, according to top economist David Rosenberg. 

"The Fed seems to be focusing not just on flawed data, but on headlines only. I don't sense any analysis of the data by the various FOMC officials as much as reporting of the data," Rosenberg said in a note on Monday. 

He said the reverberations of such a misstep wouldn't hit until six months later, but when they do, the Fed and the markets are in for a shock.

"The Fed now intends to stay on the sidelines as it closely watches lagging and contemporaneous indicators that are littered with high error terms, and the longer it waits, the more it is going to have to do on the rates front. Shades of 1991, 2001 and 2008," he wrote.  

Rosenberg criticized the Fed's focus on its favored PCE inflation data, which spiked higher than estimated at a 3.7% annual rate in March, making the central bank believe it's still too early to loosen the monetary policy. 

The economist pointed out that first-quarter data paints a narrow inflation picture, mainly driven by three idiosyncratic items: financial services and insurance, healthcare services, and housing and utilities.

"I don't see how the Fed can influence these inherently non-cyclical areas. And it is unclear how long-lasting these influences will be," he said, adding that excluding the three items above, core PCE inflation edged up by only 1.5% annually in Q1. 

Rosenberg noted that even the tepid 1.6% annualized real GDP growth in the first quarter was mainly driven by government, healthcare, and financial services. Beyond these sectors, real consumer spending only saw a modest uptick of less than 2% annually, far from a "hot economy" narrative. 

"Meanwhile, household expenditure on both durable and nondurable goods contracted at a -0.4% annual rate, and these are far more exposed to the shifts in the economic cycle," the note said. 

Finally, he noted that the Fed's long-term view of the economy as still hot based on non-farm payroll data was dashed by the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages and Business Employment Dynamics.

Rosenberg pointed out that the payroll report may be exaggerating actual employment by 70,000 per month. This is because the lagging, more comprehensive QCEW data only showed a 1.5% rise as of September 2023, while the widely used nonfarm payroll report indicates a 2% growth every month.

Meanwhile, BED data indicated a 192,000 drop in private employment in Q3 of last year, whereas private job payroll data reported a significant 521,000 increase in that time. 

"We have not seen a decline like this since the first and second quarters of 2020, but we also had this sort of drop in the third quarter of 2007 and the first quarter of 2001."

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• I visited two Costco stores, one in the Midwest and one in New York City.
• New York City's Costco store was smaller, which made it feel more crowded.
• The prices and offerings were mostly identical, though the food courts featured different sodas.

As someone who grew up in Wisconsin and moved to New York City a decade ago, I enjoy analyzing the similarities and differences between the two regions I call home.

As part of a series comparing nationwide chains like Target and Trader Joe's in the Midwest and New York City, I visited Costco locations in Wisconsin and Manhattan. My Gold Star membership, which costs $60 per year, grants me entry to all Costco stores.

Costco remains a popular brand across the US and the world, offering bulk items at lower prices than many retailers. Its net sales added up to $237.71 billion in the 2023 fiscal year, a 6.7% increase from 2022.

While Costco stores are pretty standardized, which I found when I visited a Costco in Iceland, I was still interested to see if there were any regional variations in their prices, items, and shopping experiences.

Here are the most surprising differences I noticed.

During a trip home to Wisconsin in November, I visited a Costco store in Grafton, Wisconsin, measuring 151,000 square feet.

A large technology section was set up at the entrance.

There were also tables full of winter coats, sweaters, and other apparel.

The store wasn't too crowded on the Thursday afternoon I visited, with plenty of room to move in the aisles.

The Kirkland bakery sold cookies, pastries, and birthday cakes.

The produce was located in a walk-in refrigerated section.

The samples were plentiful, with Costco employees handing out veggie crisps, granola-bar pieces, and cups of sparkling water.

I spotted a few local products like cheddar cheese curds produced in Ellsworth, Wisconsin.

This Costco also stocked coffee beans roasted in Door County, Wisconsin.

The lines for both self checkout and cashiers were only a few carts deep and moved quickly.

The food court was located beyond the checkout counters and sold pizza, chicken bakes, sandwiches, hot dogs, and desserts like churros and ice-cream sundaes.

A sign on the window notified customers about potential allergy issues.

The soda fountain included Pepsi, Mountain Dew, Tropicana lemonade, and Starry lemon-lime soda.

Next to the food court, there were plenty of tables where customers could sit and eat before heading to their next destination.

When I returned to New York City, I visited Manhattan's sole Costco location in East Harlem.

The Costco store is part of East River Plaza, a shopping complex that also includes stores like Aldi, Marshalls, and Ashley Homestore.

Unlike in the Midwest, where free parking lots are the norm at most stores, parking in the East River Plaza's garage costs $6 for up to two hours.

People were already lined up and waiting to get in when I arrived a few minutes before the store opened at 10 a.m. on a Friday in January.

At 110,000 square feet, New York City's Costco store was noticeably smaller than the one I visited in the Midwest.

At times, I found it difficult to navigate my cart through the crowds and smaller aisles.

New York's Costco store had many of the same warm clothing items on display.

There was a large selection of cheeses, but no Wisconsin cheese curds.

Some signs varied slightly between stores — for example, a sign at the Midwest Costco indicated "fresh produce," while the New York Costco just said "produce."

The New York City Costco also had a kosher bakery section where cakes and pastries were prepared in accordance with Jewish dietary laws.

Costco's famous $4.99 rotisserie chickens cost the same at both stores, though they flew off the shelves in New York as shoppers waited for each fresh batch.

I was surprised there weren't any samples available to try, but a Costco employee later told me that the stations hadn't been set up yet so soon after opening.

Both the cashier and self-checkout lines stretched out into the aisles with large numbers of people jostling for spots.

Above the checkout lines, signs advertised the food court's offerings, which were identical to the Wisconsin Costco's menu and prices.

One difference I noticed in the food court was that unlike in the Midwest, no allergy information was posted on the display case.

Additionally, the soda fountain in Manhattan offered Brisk iced tea instead of Starry.

Compared to the Midwest, New York City's Costco felt like a more cramped, hectic shopping experience to me, but the low prices and huge selection make it worth the trip in any region.

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