Tag: IFTTT

• America's shrinking birthrate is a problem.
• Millennials not having enough babies could crimp growth by 1-2 percentage points a year.
• At the current trajectory, that's set to weigh on the economy for the next decade or more.

Millennials aren't having as many kids as previous generations, and that fact could end up dragging down economic growth for more than a decade.

That may not faze some child-free millennials, who are using the money that would have been spent on childcare to splurge on lavish vacations, flashy boats, and other luxuries popular among DINKs — couples who live on double-income, with no kids.

But that kind of spending won't be enough to offset the drag of a shrinking population on the economy over the long run, especially considering that the US birthrate has collapsed over the last half-century, economists told Business Insider.

In 2022, there were just 11.1 births per every 1,000 people, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. That's a 53% plunge from what was recorded in 1960, when there were 23.7 births per every 1,000 people.

The shortage of babies has been particularly acute since the pandemic, according to James Pomeroy, HSBC's global economist. The national birthrate is now dropping around 2% each year, he estimated — and it didn't pick up in 2023, like experts originally expected.

That puts the US at risk of seeing "extremely low" population levels over the long run, not unlike countries like China, where the population decline is so dire the government is doling out cash to convince people to have more kids. 

"What you're talking about is these birth rates dropping very, very low levels, which over the course of time has huge impacts on the economy," Pomeroy said. "And then by the time you get to 2030, you're talking about a birth rate that is wildly different to what was in the assumptions made at the beginning of the decade."

The impact of millennials having fewer kids will likely be worse than the impact of aging boomers — and the most dire consequences could come 10-15 years from now, Pomeroy estimated. He pointed to Japan, which had a similar birth rate in the 1990s as the US does now. Its economy saw the "worst bit" of growth around a decade later, when its workforce dwindled and the nation posted several years of negative GDP growth.

The shrinking birthrate in the US could drag down GDP by 1-2 percentage points each year, according to Todd Buchholz, a former White House economist. Over several decades, that's the equivalent of slashing the US growth rate by a third, he estimated, or wiping out the estimated productivity increases stemming from artificial intelligence. In the worst-case scenario, GDP growth could nosedive 3-4 percentage points, Pomeroy warned. 

Fewer Americans being born means fewer workers in the economy. 

"You find it more difficult to find somebody to cut your hair, do your nails work on, set up the x-ray machines at the hospital," he said. "So the sheer decrease in the number of people … becomes a problem."

Declining fertility rates also mean it will be harder to bear the brunt of Social Security payments, particularly as boomers age into retirement. Baby boomers are estimated to exert "peak burden" on the US economy in 2029, which is when all boomers will be 65 or older.

"We will have a great deal of trouble … figuring out how to pay the retirements. The promised retirement payments for senior citizens — Medicare and Social Security — are going to go in vast deficits," Buchholz added.

If the birthrate doesn't increase soon, he estimates there will eventually be two full-time workers for every retiree, down from around 20 workers per retiree in the 1930s. 

"That is simply not sustainable," he said.

Downward spiral

It's hard to convince people to have kids. 

Once the birthrate in an advanced economy starts to decline, it generally continues to do so, Pomeroy and Buchholz both noted. That's been the case for China and Russia, two countries that dealt with low birth rates for decades, and are now hobbled by demographic issues. 

Government policies that support those who have children could be one way to boost the birthrate — or at least, prevent it from falling further. Boosting the supply of available homes, which can push down sky-high housing costs, will also help, Pomeroy said, though that will likely take decades to build enough inventory to meet demand. 

The most important thing to encourage people to have more kids might be a cultural shift in how we talk about children, Buchholz says. He pointed to the chatter among millennials about how much money you can save by going child-free — around half a million dollars, according to one CNBC analysis.

In the US, mounting costs for everything from shelter to healthcare to education weigh on younger generations' decision to have kids. On top of that, existential uncertainties stemming from things like the climate crisis to technological upheavals like artificial intelligence don't make the decision any easier. 

"I think it's a net negative to have fewer children when the choice is between having a child and investing in a new Sony PlayStation," Buchholz told Business Insider. "Now it seems crude, vulgar, and inhumane to admit that people do, but people will openly say, having a child is expensive."

Many DINK couples say they don't regret their lifestyle choices — much to the vexation of their critics – but that blasé attitude could be the very problem itself, Buchholz speculated.

"'At the end of my life, I was surrounded by a machine tethering me to oxygen, a nurse, and a lawyer.' That seems like a very dreary way to end life," Buchholz said. "And so I think the narrative has to change. So it's not about the fear of missing out and only being able to live once. People who have children feel that they live more than once."

This story was originally published in February 2024.

from All Content from Business Insider https://ift.tt/uga9szn
via IFTTT

A real-estate brokerage owned by Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway has agreed to pay $250 million to settle a lawsuit over its commission fees, according to plaintiffs in the case.

Home sellers had sued HomeServices of America, alleging it conspired to force sellers to pay inflated agent commissions.

"This is another significant settlement for American home sellers who have been saddled with paying billions in unnecessary commission costs," said plaintiff attorney Benjamin D. Brown, managing partner of Cohen Milstein Sellers & Toll and co-chair of its Antitrust practice. "This brings us a step closer to resolving this long-running case involving the industry-wide brokers' commission scheme."

In a statement to Business Insider, HomeServices Executive Vice President Chris Kelly said the brokerage settled the case to "eliminate the uncertainty brought by the protracted appellate and litigation process."

"As we move beyond this settlement, our focus remains steadfast on ethical operations, industry integrity, and delivering value," Kelly said. "Our long-standing principle of helping agents build careers that positively impact the communities and consumers they serve continues."

The group of home sellers, in this case, had also sued other brokerages and have scored millions in settlements already.

Among the payouts is a whopping $418 million from the National Association of Realtors that has shaken up the real-estate industry.

This is a developing story. Please check back for updates.

from All Content from Business Insider https://ift.tt/dX976Et
via IFTTT

• Walmart heir Rob Walton just stepped down from the retailer's board after four decades.
• He and his two siblings have added more than $100 billion to their net worth in recent years.
• Their gains have been fueled by Walmart stock, which hit a record high in March.

Walmart heir Rob Walton just stepped down from the retailer's board after four decades. He and his two siblings have more than doubled their money since 2016, adding more than $100 billion to their combined fortunes.

Legendary founder Sam Walton's three surviving children — Rob, Jim, and Alice — all rank highly on the Forbes rich list with personal fortunes of between $72 billion and $79 billion. They were less than half as wealthy in 2016.

They're now worth a combined $228 billion, making them richer as a trio than the top three people on the list: Bernard Arnault ($214 billion), Jeff Bezos ($195 billion), or Elon Musk ($192 billion).

Their wealth has ballooned in recent years thanks to Walmart stock, which has surged from below $20 in 2016 to more than $60.

It's jumped 14% this year already, fueled by resilient consumer demand and investors' hopes that interest rates will be cut and the economy will escape a recession.

The Walton trio have garnered more than $45 billion in total from stock sales and dividends over the years, per Bloomberg. Together with other relatives, they own more than 1.25 billion shares, or more than 45% of the company — a stake valued at over $220 billion.

The Waltons as a whole were worth an estimated $267 billion in mid-January, a Forbes ranking of America's richest families found. They were more than twice as wealthy as the Mars dynasty.

It's striking that Walmart's founding family owns such a big chunk of a public company worth almost $500 billion, and has several members on the board.

Many uber-rich families prefer to keep their companies private. That's the case with Mars, Koch Industries, Cargill, Fidelity, Publix, Chick-fil-A, and others.

from All Content from Business Insider https://ift.tt/IvH72ny
via IFTTT

• Spain is sending a limited number of Patriot missiles to Ukraine, El Pais reported.
• It will stop short of sending launchers for the system, however.
• It follows Ukraine's urgent plea to NATO for more air defense systems.

Spain will send a small number of Patriot missiles to Ukraine as pressure builds from NATO and EU allies to increase aid to the country, Spanish newspaper El Pais reported, citing unnamed government sources.

"The transfer of a small number of missiles has come after the defense ministry refused to hand over to Ukraine the battery it has had deployed since 2013 on the Turkish-Syrian border," the report said.

"It will be a very limited number, as the Spanish war reserve is around 50 units, and interceptors are very expensive," it added.

The Spanish Ministry of Defense did not immediately respond to a request for comment from Business Insider.

It comes after German defense minister Boris Pistorius hit out at Spain and Greece for not having sent their Patriot systems to Ukraine.

"Let's say if a country has, for instance, six Patriot systems or four and is not in the front line to the east, it can easily hand over a Patriot system," he said in a TV appearance earlier this week, The Telegraph reported.

When pressed as to whether this was aimed at Spain and Greece, he added: "We're talking to them right now. I honestly can't understand."

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy made an urgent plea to NATO states earlier this month, saying that Ukraine needed "seven more Patriots or similar air defense systems" to defend its cities from Russian strikes.

"Putin must be brought down to earth, and our sky must become safe again," Zelenskyy said. "It depends fully on your choice… (the) choice whether we are indeed allies."

On April 21, Zelenskyy added on X: "'Patriots' can only be called air defense systems if they work and save lives rather than standing immobile somewhere in storage bases."

Spain has decided not to send any of its launchers for the Patriot system to Ukraine, however, the El Pais report said.

It currently has three Patriot systems, all purchased from Germany in 2004 and 2014, the report added.

The news comes as Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis said that Greece would not be able to offer air defense systems such as the Patriot or the Soviet-developed S-300 to Ukraine.

"Greece has supported Ukraine in various ways, including defense means," he said.

"However, from the very beginning, we stated that we cannot give out defense systems that are crucial for our deterrence capabilities," he added.

Germany pledged to deliver one of its Patriot systems to Ukraine following a phone call between German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Zelenskyy in April in which the Ukrainian President described "the massive Russian air attacks on the civilian energy infrastructure."

"We stand unwaveringly by Ukraine's side," Scholz wrote in a post on X announcing the move.

from All Content from Business Insider https://ift.tt/0ElUFMJ
via IFTTT

• Despite a US housing shortage, Florida and Texas have too much supply, Redfin said.
• The states accelerated construction to take advantage of pandemic-era demand.
• But many are now priced out, while Florida's rising insurance costs are pushing down demand.

A lack of US housing has fenced off most would-be buyers, but two states are dealing with the opposite problem — an overflow of homes.

According to Redfin, Florida and Texas have properties stagnating on the market, as demand is shifting away from these areas. 

Cape Coral and North Port, Florida saw the country's biggest surge in homes for sale, with volumes up around 50% from a year ago in March. The number of homes also jumped 25% in McAllen, Texas, Redfin reported on Thursday.

Both states have been building more homes than in any other part of the US, in a race to make room for pandemic-era newcomers. 

"Two years ago, the North Port metro was one of the most competitive housing markets in the country because it was affordable for remote workers and there was a shortage of homes for sale, but none of those things are true today," local Redfin sales manager Eric Auciello said in the report. 

Instead, buyers are now finding themselves priced out, and price growth has slid as a result. Of the country's top 10 metros where sellers were most likely to slash listed prices, seven are located in these two states.

"Out-of-town homebuyers no longer see Florida as a place to get amazing value. Now they're moving to North Carolina or Tennessee to get a good deal. Many local blue-collar workers have been priced out of homeownership, too," Auciello noted.

Adding to Florida's headwinds is a rising insurance crisis, with close to three-quarters of the homeowners noting rising insurance costs or changing coverage. 

This has become a growing concern for the national housing market, as worsening climate risks amplify costs to insurance providers. A September study from First Street calculated that, amid hiking premiums and the loss of coverage in certain areas, home values could significantly erode.

"We're at an inflection point. A hefty insurance bill isn't always a big deal for a luxury buyer, but it can be a really big issue for someone buying a waterfront home on a smaller budget," Auciello said.

Both markets are also exposed to the same strains as the wider housing environment. High mortgages, now at around 7%, are keeping many homeowners from upgrading to a better home.

Nationally, the stubborn mortgage highs have caused new listings to fall 6% month-over-month in March, marking the biggest drop since January 2022, Redfin said. 

Meanwhile, a shortage of homes has pushed the median US sale price 5% year-on-year, to $420,357. That's only 3% a record high price of $432,496.

from All Content from Business Insider https://ift.tt/LGWPRdh
via IFTTT

• Some members of Trump's team want to restructure the Federal Reserve, the WSJ reported.
• That could include allowing the president to have a direct say on interest rate decisions.
• It would also allow him to get rid of Fed Chair Jerome Powell before his term ends in 2026.

The nation's central bank might look quite different if former President Donald Trump wins the upcoming election.

The Wall Street Journal reported on Thursday night that members of Trump's team are creating plans that would restructure the Federal Reserve and allow Trump to influence the Fed's actions, according to people familiar — a move that would erode the Fed's independence from political entities.

According to the Journal, the proposals would give Trump a say on interest-rate decisions, along with giving him the authority to oust Fed Chair Jerome Powell from his position before his term is up in 2026.

Trump's advisors cautioned that the campaign has not confirmed these plans:

"Let us be very specific here: unless a message is coming directly from President Trump or an authorized member of his campaign team, no aspect of future presidential staffing or policy announcements should be deemed official," Trump senior advisors Susie Wiles and Chris LaCivita told the Journal.

The Journal also reported that the proposal would require the Fed to be subject to review by the Office of Management and Budget when issuing new rules — a process that other federal agencies have to undergo and would be another effort to diminish the central bank's independence on matters of banking regulation.

Trump has previously been critical of Powell's handling of interest rates during the pandemic. To help the Fed achieve its 2% inflation target, the Federal Open Market Committee has hiked interest rates 11 consecutive times since March 2022. In September, the Fed paused the hikes and held rates steady since then, and Powell has emphasized the importance of being confident in economic data before cutting rates this year.

Trump hasn't been on board with Powell's timing. In Februrary, Trump told Fox News that Powell is being "political" by potentially choosing to cut rates right around the time of the presidential election.

"I think he's going to do something to probably help the Democrats, I think, if he lowers interest rates," Trump said, adding that "it looks to me like he's trying to lower interest rates for the sake of maybe getting people elected."

Powell has long maintained that the Fed is not a political entity, saying during an April discussion that "our analysis is free from any personal or political bias, in service to the public."

"We will not always get it right — no one does," he said. "But our decisions will always reflect our painstaking assessment of what is best for our economy in the medium and longer term — and nothing else."

None of this can be done without Trump back in the White House

The former president is the Republican Party's presumptive nominee, having handily defeated Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, and others in the ongoing GOP primary election.

Despite many polls showing Trump ahead of President Joe Biden in head-to-head matchups, the outcomes change when 3rd party candidates are introduced into the mix, especially Democrat-turned-Independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

After losing to Biden in 2020, Trump has an unexpected advantage this time around: much more interest from young voters than before. Biden previously led Trump with the group by a nearly 20-point margin, but recent polls show that lead has fallen to just 1 to 2 percentage points.

There is, however, a catch: younger voters are historically much less likely to vote than older ones, and several GOP-led state legislatures introduced bills in recent years restricting which forms of identification can be used at the voting booth, which could further reduce young voter turnout.

Trump has also been hampered in recent weeks by his many legal troubles, such as the ongoing hush-money case in New York and his team's appeal to the Supreme Court on Thursday to give presidents sweeping immunity for their actions in office.

from All Content from Business Insider https://ift.tt/2epCKW4
via IFTTT

• Feds are investigating whether Tesla's 2023 Autopilot recall worked.
• In December, Tesla recalled 2 million Autopilot-equipped vehicles with a software update.
• The NHTSA said crashes still happened, even after the recall.

Tesla recalled more than 2 million vehicles last year over crashes involving its Autopilot program.

But did the recall work? Crashes kept happening, the feds say, and now they're investigating.

The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) said Friday it's opening up a fresh probe over the "crash events."

The NHTSA said in its notice Thursday that Autopilot issues had played an apparent role in "at least 13 crashes."

In at least one of those cases, someone died, the NHTSA said.

That's after Tesla recalled the vehicles to fix Autopilot with an over-the-air software update after regulators said the driver-assist tech wasn't doing enough to stop driver misuse.

As part of its new investigation, the NHTSA will use tests of the recalled vehicles and look into why Tesla's fix made owners opt-in, making it something that could be "readily reversed."

Tesla also sent later updates to Autopilot that weren't a part of the recall, the NHTSA said.

"This investigation will consider why these updates were not a part of the recall," the agency wrote.

Tesla did not immediately respond to a request for comment from Business Insider.

The EV brand has been struggling with flagging sales and reported burning through cash in its latest earnings report. Still, the stock soared after CEO Elon Musk made big promises about two new products: more affordable cars and the company's foray into self-driving robo-taxis.

It's not clear how regulators will react to Tesla's fleet of ride-hailing vehicles when — or if — they arrive.

from All Content from Business Insider https://ift.tt/xcoHjRT
via IFTTT

• Amazon founder Jeff Bezos thinks "work-life balance" is a "debilitating phrase."
• The billionaire and former Amazon CEO instead taught employees that work and life are a circle.
• Bezos has said if he's happy at work, he's energized at home, and vice versa.

Jeff Bezos doesn't like the phrase "work-life balance," and has said in the past that he views work and life as actually a circle.

The Amazon founder said in 2018, at an event hosted by Insider's parent company, that he tries to teach employees about "work-life harmony," rather than it being a balance.

"I get asked about work-life balance all the time," Bezos told Axel Springer CEO Mathias Döpfner. "And my view is, that's a debilitating phrase because it implies there's a strict trade-off."

"It actually is a circle," Bezos said. "It's not a balance."

"I find that when I am happy at work, I come home more energized, I'm a better husband, a better dad, and when I'm happy at home, I come in a better boss, a better colleague," Bezos said in a separate interview at Vox's Code Conference in 2016. (Bezos was married to MacKenzie Scott at the time.)

Bezos has also said many people "have very high standards for how they want their work-life to be."

"If you can get your work life to where you enjoy half of it, that is amazing. Very few people ever achieve that," he said in a 2020 interview in Mumbai with actor Shah Rukh Khan and filmmaker Zoya Akhtar.

"The truth is, everything comes with overhead. That's reality. Everything comes with pieces that you don't like," he added at the time.

Bezos' so-called work-life circle has changed since he made the remarks. The billionaire stepped down from his role as CEO of the e-commerce giant in July 2021. Bezos was replaced by Andy Jassy, his former AWS chief, and Bezos directed his focus to other endeavors, like space exploration with his company Blue Origin, philanthropy, and a jet-setting social life with fiancée Lauren Sanchez.

Bezos, who is currently the second-richest person in the world, has taken a nontraditional approach to work: He has said he made time for breakfast every morning with his family, doesn't set his alarm before going to bed, schedules surprisingly few meetings, and set aside a few minutes every day to wash his own dishes.

Katie Canales and Zoë Bernard previously contributed to this article.

from All Content from Business Insider https://ift.tt/r8ZR5XA
via IFTTT

• A UK warship on Wednesday destroyed a Houthi ballistic missile likely targeting a commercial ship.
• It marked the Royal Navy's first such kill since the Gulf War, according to a report.
• A 1991 engagement marked the first time ship-launched anti-air missiles successfully destroyed an enemy missile in naval combat.

A UK warship on Wednesday shot down a ballistic missile fired by the Houthis in Yemen, marking the Royal Navy's first such kill since the Gulf War more than 30 years ago.

The HMS Diamond, a Type 45 destroyer, used its advanced Sea Viper missile interceptors to down the deadly Houthi threat while the warship was protecting a commercial ship in the Gulf of Aden, according to a new report.

US Central Command, or CENTCOM, said on Wednesday that a coalition vessel had "successfully engaged" an anti-ship ballistic missile over the Gulf of Aden earlier in the day, marking the first confirmed Houthi attack in over a week.

The missile was likely targeting the MV Yorktown, a US-flagged, owned, and operated merchant vessel with American and Greek crew members aboard, CENTCOM noted in a statement. There was no reported damage or injuries, it added.

The coalition vessel has since been identified as the Diamond by The Times, which reported new details of the engagement on Thursday. Grant Shapps, the UK defense secretary, confirmed the incident and told the outlet that it was the first time a missile was intercepted in combat by a Royal Navy warship since 1991.

During the Gulf War, the Type 42 destroyer HMS Gloucester used Sea Dart missiles to destroy an Iraqi silkworm anti-ship missile that was targeting an American warship. That engagement marked the first time anti-air missiles successfully destroyed an enemy missile threat during a battle at sea.

It is not immediately clear what type of missile the Houthis used on Wednesday. The rebels are confirmed to have employed a variety of missiles and drones of Iranian origin since they started attacking ships in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden last year.

The UK Ministry of Defense did not immediately respond to Business Insider's queries on the engagement.

The Diamond first deployed to the region in December as part of a US Navy-led task force that has been squaring off against relentless Houthi threats off the coast of Yemen. The warship spent several weeks back home earlier this year to receive maintenance and additional supplies, but it has since returned to the region.

During these deployments, the Diamond has used its Sea Viper missiles and 30mm gun to destroy a handful of Houthi drones on multiple occasions. Several other European warships have also destroyed Houthi threats in the air, alongside American vessels.

Meanwhile, shortly after the Diamond's engagement on Wednesday, which ended a period of relative calm in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden that lasted a little more than a week, US forces destroyed four drones over Yemen.

CENTCOM said it was determined that the Houthi anti-ship ballistic missile and drones presented "an imminent threat to US, coalition, and merchant vessels in the region."

"These actions are taken to protect freedom of navigation and make international waters safer and more secure for US, coalition, and merchant vessels," CENTCOM added.

from All Content from Business Insider https://ift.tt/dmvM3co
via IFTTT

• Rob Walton, eldest son of Walmart founder Sam Walton, is stepping down from the company's board.
• He first joined Walmart in 1969 and has served on the board for more than 40 years.
• The company said Walton "helped shape some of the most important moments in Walmart history."

Rob Walton, eldest son of Walmart founder Sam Walton's three children, is stepping down from the company's board of directors in June.

Walton chose not to seek re-election and will retire from the board when his term ends in June, the company said Thursday.

Before joining Walmart in 1969, Walton worked with his father at his earlier five-and-dime store, and has served on the board for more than 40 years, including over two decades as chairman.

The company said Walton "helped shape some of the most important moments in Walmart history."

"His leadership has been critical as we've grown our business over so many years. There's no doubt Sam would be very proud," Walmart chairman Greg Penner said in a statement. "On behalf of our associates and the Board, I'd like to thank him for his unparalleled and amazing service."

Even in retirement, Walton will have significant influence over Walmart through his co-ownership of Walton Enterprises, which is the largest holder of Walmart stock.

He also amassed a considerable fortune in his 79 years, with a net worth of roughly $80 billion, according to Bloomberg.

from All Content from Business Insider https://ift.tt/lUzS01E
via IFTTT