

The Fortescue Metals Group Limited (ASX: FMG) share price could be seriously overvalued.
Thatâs the view of analysts at Goldman Sachs following the release of the mining giantâs full year results for FY 2022.
What is Goldman saying about the Fortescue share price?
According to a note out of the investment bank, its analysts have responded to Fortescueâs results by reiterating their sell rating and $12.10 price target on the companyâs shares.
Based on the current Fortescue share price of $18.95, this implies potential downside of 36% over the next 12 months.
What did the broker say?
Goldman notes that Fortescue delivered a full year result in line with expectations. It commented:
FMG reported FY22 underlying EBITDA/NPAT of US$10.6bn/US$6.2bn, in-line/+1% vs. GSe and VA consensus. The final dividend of A121cps (78% payout), was above our A109cps (70% payout). There was no change to iron ore guidance for FY23.
However, once again, the broker highlights that overshadowing this was Fortescueâs decarbonisation plans. Goldman continues to believe it will come at a significant cost. It explained:
Regarding decarbonisation of iron ore, FMG continues to target first battery driven electric truck in 2025 with the fleet decarb to be supported by the proposed 5.4GW wind and solar Uaroo project. We think decarbonising the Pilbara could cost FMG over US$7bn (spend not in our numbers) and requires +US$80/bbl oil or an iron ore green premia to be NPV positive.
The broker also warned that the companyâs dividends could come under pressure from these plans.
We continue to think FMG is at an inflection point on capital allocation, and to fund the ambitious new strategy, we assume the dividend payout ratio falls from the current ~75% in FY22 and then to ~50% from FY24 onwards.
Why are its shares overvalued?
Overall, Goldman Sachs believes the Fortescue share price is overvalued based on the undeserved premium it trades at compared to BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) and Rio Tinto Limited (ASX: RIO). It explained:
The stock is trading at a premium to BHP & RIO; c. 1.7x NAV vs. RIO & BHP at c. 0.8x & 1.1x NAV, c. 6x EBITDA (vs. BHP on 6x & RIO on c. 3.5x), and c. 4% FCF vs. BHP on c. 4% & RIO on c. 10%.
The post Goldman Sachs warns that the Fortescue share price could crash 36% lower appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.
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More reading
- Can Twiggy really build Fortescue into a ‘green global energy and metals machine’?
- 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Tuesday
- Why is the Rio Tinto share price having such a lousy start to the week?
- How does the BHP dividend stack up against the latest Fortescue payment?
- Everything you need to know about the trimmed-down Fortescue dividend
Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.
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