

The Fortescue Metals Group Limited (ASX: FMG) share price has come under pressure this month amid weakness in the iron ore price.
Since the start of June, the mining giantâs shares are down 10%.
Is the Fortescue share price cheap?
Following this decline, the Fortescue share price is now trading at $18.00. Based on this and FY 2021âs earnings per share of $4.43, this means that its shares are changing hands for just 4.1x earnings.
However, it is worth remembering that the market is more interested in what the future holds than in what happened in the past.
FY 2021 was an incredible year for Fortescue. And while FY 2022 will go down as a very good year, it wonât stop the company from posting a big decline in its earnings.
Goldman Sachs is expecting earnings per share of US$2.00, which equates to $2.90 per share in local currency. This means that Fortescueâs shares are trading at 6.2x forward earnings.
Letâs now take a look at how this compares to other ASX 200 mining shares:
- BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) shares trade at 6.1x FY 2022 estimated earnings
- Rio Tinto Limited (ASX: RIO) shares trade at 6.2x FY 2022 estimated earnings
- South32 Ltd (ASX: S32) shares trade at 5.3x FY 2022 estimated earnings
As you can see above, based on price-to-earnings (PE) multiples, the Fortescue share price is no cheaper than the rest of its peers.
What about other multiples?
While PE multiples are a popular tool for investors to use for share market valuations, theyâre not used widely with mining shares. Instead, price to net asset value (NAV) and EBITDA/EV multiples are seen as better suited for mining valuations.
This is important, because if you rely on PE multiples to value mining shares, you may end up buying shares that you think are cheap, but the rest of the market thinks are expensive.
The Fortescue share price is actually a prime example of this.
Goldman Sachs recently explained why Fortescue shares are actually expensive compared to the likes of BHP and Rio Tinto. This is despite its outlook being much weaker than the others.
The stock is trading at a significant premium to BHP & RIO; c. 1.7x NAV vs. RIO & BHP at c. 0.9x NAV & 1.1, c. 6.5x EBITDA (vs. BHP & RIO on c. 4x), and c. 4% FCF vs. BHP & RIO on c. 11-13%.
In light of this, the widening of low grade 58% Fe product realisations, execution and ramp-up risks on the Iron Bridge project, and uncertainties around its Fortescue Future Industries (FFI) diversification and Pilbara decarbonisation plans, Goldman has a sell rating and $13.50 price target on Fortescue’s shares.
This implies potential downside of 25% for investors over the next 12 months. Food for thought.
The post Is the Fortescue share price really the cheapest ASX 200 materials share on the market? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.
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More reading
- Guess which sector is delivering the biggest gain across the ASX 200 today
- Why are ASX 200 mining shares having such a dire week?
- Why is the Fortescue share price sinking 4% on Thursday?
- ASX 200 midday update: Pilbara Minerals’ lithium price update, BHP tumbles
- Can the Fortescue share price hold up if the iron ore price falls?
Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.
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