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Technology stocks have been hit especially hard in the past couple of months as fears of rising interest rates paralyse the market.

The S&P/ASX All Technology Index (ASX: XTX) has lost more than 23% since November, with pretty much all the ASX shares in that sector getting a haircut.

So it can be confusing to know which tech stocks are worth retaining the faith in and which ones might be struggling for a while yet.

The team at Firetrail this month reported to its clients 2 tech shares that have been an absolute drag on its fund’s performance. 

But they’re sticking with them for the long haul:

We bought more of this ASX share that fell 40%

Megaport Ltd (ASX: MP1) shares have plummeted almost 40% since mid-November.

Just in January, the stock fell a painful 28%, dragging down the rest of the Firetrail Small Companies Fund.

“During the month Megaport released its quarterly result to the market. Whilst headline numbers were in-line, we were disappointed by the number of Megaport Virtual Edge (MVE) sales,” read the memo from Firetrail analysts. 

“Megaport reported 12 sales during the quarter relative to our expectations of 30.”

However, Firetrail has long-term faith in the virtual network provider and actually bought up more shares during this price weakness.

“Megaport remains a high conviction position and we increased our holdings during the month.”

Many other analysts agree with Firetrail, with 8 of 12 saying on CMC Markets that Megaport shares are a “strong buy”.

This tech company has halved its value

Nitro Software Ltd (ASX: NTO) shares have had an even worse time than Megaport, falling a stress-inducing 53% since November.

The software firm saw its stock price fall 25% just in the month of January.

“During the month the company reported an inline quarterly result and completed the acquisition of e-signature business, Connective,” stated the Firetrail team.

But similar to Megaport, the Firetrail Small Companies Fund is sticking with the document productivity software provider.

“Despite the weak share price performance following the acquisition, our recent due diligence has increased our conviction in the quality of the Connective business.”

It’s almost a consensus view among other analysts, with 7 out of 8 rating Nitro shares as a “strong buy”, according to CMC Markets. The 8th analyst says the stock is a “moderate buy”.

The post 2 ASX tech shares we’re backing through the turmoil: analysts appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Tony Yoo owns MEGAPORT FPO and Nitro Software Limited. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. owns and has recommended MEGAPORT FPO. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended MEGAPORT FPO and Nitro Software Limited. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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Brokers have identified some of the leading ASX growth shares that look like opportunities.

Share prices are always changing. But sometimes an improved business performance or a change in the valuation can make a stock look like a much more attractive opportunity.

With that in mind, these two ASX growth shares are highly rated by investment experts:

Idp Education Ltd (ASX: IDP)

IDP Education is currently rated as a buy by at least three brokers including UBS. The price target by UBS on the education business is $35.90. That implies a potential upside of around 30%.

The latest insights about IDP Education came after the FY22 half-year result. Total revenue grew by 47% to $396.8 million. This included 62% growth of English language testing to $256.7 million and 73% growth of multi-destination student placement growth to $79.6 million. English language testing volumes were up 79%.

Operating leverage helped IDP Education’s earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) grow by 61% to $77.9 million. The ASX growth share’s net profit after tax (NPAT) increased by 68% to $50.8 million.

Management believes that the strategic expansion and acquisition of the British Council’s English language testing operation in the high-growth market of India ensures it is poised for long-term growth in the world’s largest English language testing market.

IDP Education also said that it’s in a strong position for growth. Its investments are paying off, leading to increased demand for services.

UBS noted that strong performance by the Indian market, with synergies with the Indian acquisition projected to reach $20 million in FY23.

On the broker’s numbers, the IDP Education share price is valued at 42x FY23’s estimated earnings.

Megaport Ltd (ASX: MP1)

Megaport describes itself as a leading global provider of elastic interconnection services. Its platform enables customers to rapidly connect their network to other services across the Megaport network.

The ASX growth share connects more than 2,400 customers in over 760 enabled data centres globally. It works with partners like AWS (Amazon), Google, Microsoft Azure, Oracle, SAP, Salesforce and Cloudflare.

It’s rated as a buy by at least three different brokers, including Citi. The Megaport share price target from Citi is $20.20, suggesting capital growth potential of almost 50% over the next year.

Citi thinks that Megaport is going to be making positive cash flow by the last six months of FY23.

In the first half of FY22, Megaport reported that the monthly recurring revenue in the month of December 2021 was $9.2 million, 46% higher than December 2020. The profit after direct costs rose 69% to $30.9 million, with a nine percentage point increase to the profit after direct costs margin to 60%.

The business is still making a net loss, but it jumped 47% to $20.2 million, compared to a loss of $38.4 million a year ago.

The ASX growth share continues to expand into other areas, with the Mexico launch planned for March 2022 with a partnership with KIO Networks to enable software-defined cloud interconnection. KIO is an IT services leader in Latin America. The initial launch includes four data centres across Mexico City and Queretaro. It will have the full suite of Megaport networks as a service (NaaS) capabilities.

The post 2 top ASX growth shares that are worth buying: brokers appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Tristan Harrison has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. owns and has recommended Idp Education Pty Ltd and MEGAPORT FPO. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended MEGAPORT FPO. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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The CSL Limited (ASX: CSL) share price will be one to watch closely today.

This follows the release of the biotherapeutics giant’s eagerly anticipated half year results.

CSL share price on watch after solid half

• Total revenue up 5.3% to US$6,041 million
• Gross profit margin down 3.4 percentage points to 57.1%
• Net profit after tax down 2.8% to US$1,760 million
• Net profit in constant currency down 5% to US$1,722 million
• Interim dividend flat at US$1.04 per share
• R&D investment up 13% to US$486 million

What happened during the first half?

For the six months ended 31 December, CSL reported a 5.3% increase in revenue to US$6,041 million. This represents a 4% increase to US$5,993 million in constant currency.

Management advised that this was driven by a 2% decline in CSL Behring revenue to US$4,216 million and an 18% lift in Seqirus revenue to US$1,592 million.

This reflects strong growth in seasonal vaccines, market leading haemophilia B product Idelvion, and specialty products Kcentra and Haegarda, which were partially offset by softer immunoglobulins and albumin sales due to constrained plasma collections in FY 2021.

However, due to a 3.4 percentage points decrease in its gross margin, CSL’s profits were lower year on year. It reported a 5% constant currency decline in net profit after tax to US$1,722 million.

But despite its weaker earnings, the CSL board has elected to maintain its interim dividend at US$1.04 per share.

Management commentary

CSL’s CEO, Paul Perreault, commented: “CSL has delivered a result in line with our expectations in a challenging environment brought about by the ongoing impacts of the global COVID pandemic.”

Mr Perreault was quick to address the elephant in the room – plasma collections.

He said: “Our core franchise, the immunoglobulin portfolio, has been impacted by the industrywide constraints on collecting plasma in FY21 during the course of the global pandemic. We have responded by implementing multiple initiatives in our plasma collections network, which has given rise to significant improvement in plasma volumes collected. Given the long-term nature of our manufacturing cycle, this will underpin stronger Ig and albumin sales going forward.”

The CEO also highlights the strong rebound in HPV royalties and the impressive performance of its vaccines business, Seqirus.

Mr Perreault said: “HPV royalties were up 134%2 as sales rebounded strongly to pre-COVID levels following strong demand and increased supply. Our influenza vaccines business, Seqirus once again delivered a strong performance with revenue up 17% at CC. This was achieved by significant growth in seasonal influenza vaccines driven by record demand and Seqirus’ differentiated and high value product portfolio.”

Outlook

CSL has reaffirmed its guidance for FY 2022. This will mean a net profit after tax in the range of approximately US$2.15 billion to US$2.25 billion at constant currency.

Though, it is worth noting that this guidance now includes US$90 million to US$110 million in transaction costs related to the Vifor Pharma acquisition. These costs were not part of its original guidance, so this is a quasi-upgrade of sorts.

This guidance is expected to be underpinned by improvements in plasma collections and increased demand for flu vaccines.

Mr Perreault explained: “Following the initiatives we have implemented in our plasma collections network, collections have been improving and are expected to underpin stronger sales in our core plasma therapies. Seqirus continues to perform strongly as increased demand for influenza vaccines together with our differentiated product portfolio will see it deliver another profitable year. Consistent with the seasonal nature of the business we anticipate, however, a loss in the second half of the year.”

The post CSL (ASX:CSL) delivers US$1.7bn half year profit and tips plasma collection rebound appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. owns and has recommended CSL Ltd. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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Ask A Fund Manager

The Motley Fool chats with fund managers so that you can get an insight into how the professionals think. In this edition, Capital H Management founder and chief executive Harley Grosser reveals two small-cap ASX shares that are in the buy zone, and the ones that he missed that still haunt him.

Hottest ASX shares

The Motley Fool: What are the two best stock buys right now?

Harley Grosser: The first one is one that I think readers may have seen me mention before, but it’s just gotten to such attractive valuation levels that I think it’s a near-term buy — that’s Webcentral Ltd (ASX: WCG).

This is the telco, cloud services and domain management business. They’ve given $30 million of EBITDA guidance in FY23, which means it’s trading on a bit over four times EBITDA today, which is just way too cheap. 

They flag organic growth to kick in, and there’s definitely going to be M&A still to come — that’s the style of their management team. 

The stocks sold off heavily because of the merger they did with 5G Networks and a lot of shareholders that took scrip from 5G, we think, have just sold into a liquid market at the time the general markets are selling off.

We’d view that as an opportunity. And I think that at this price, it actually becomes an acquisition target itself for someone like web.com or one of the majors to just lob a bid, because to us it just looks too cheap. 

We think that’ll correct in time. But in the meantime, I’d probably say it’s a near-term buy opportunity.

MF: This is the company that’s also betting on existing domain owners to transfer to the new .au domains to accelerate its business?

HG: Yeah, that’s correct. That’s just one of the tailwinds behind this business. They’ve given us a brief update on how sales have gone in .au thus far. We expect more detail at the half-year results this month. We think that’ll be positive. It’s definitely going to be growing as a nice tailwind. 

One important point to note is that with domains, if you’re Webcentral, you receive the cash for, let’s say for a two- or three-year domain sale, upfront — but then you only book the revenue each month as it’s incurred. So what you’ll see is you won’t see revenue jump, but you’ll see a cash jump.

So I’d just flag that’s probably the metric to watch, but hopefully the company will give more detailed numbers around how that looks.

MF: And your second best buy at the moment?

HG: Well, the other one that we’ve been buying lately is ARC Funds Ltd (ASX: ARC) for the reasons that I outlined earlier. 

So last year when we joined the board, all of 2021 was just about pivoting the strategy, giving us a good sort of platform to launch off. I think we did that with the two managers that we secured in Magnum and Mario. They’re both now going well, Mario’s up and running and Magnum will launch their fund fairly soon. But this year, with the share price re-rated and with our shareholders happy and everything going in the right direction and a really nice pipeline, we think this year is all about growth. So we’ve been buying that of late. 

We expect it to, like I said before, it all comes down to execution. If we do our job, then I think we’ve got some upside there.

Looking back

MF: Is there a move that you regret from the past? For example, a missed opportunity or buying a stock at the wrong timing or price.

HG: In small caps we’ve got heaps of stocks wrong and you can’t avoid getting them wrong. It hurts when you lose money, but it’s just part of the game. 

At Capital H we try to pride ourselves on being a small-cap specialist, which means that we need to be across the entire market. It doesn’t annoy me if we get a stock wrong, it doesn’t annoy me if we take a view on a stock and then that view is wrong. But what does annoy me is if we don’t get around to making the effort to look at a stock and at least form a view, then they end up being multibag — that really frustrates me. 

So there’s been unfortunately plenty of those over the last sort of 10 years or so. Too long to list, but we try to use that frustration when we do miss one to get onto the next one. 

MF: Is there one painful one off the top of your head you could name?

HG: I remember years ago, Altium Limited (ASX: ALU). We missed that one, when we were much smaller.

I think probably one that was in our wheelhouse that we missed because it was a bit big for us was Pinnacle Investment Management Group Ltd (ASX: PNI). Pinnacle has the same business model as ARC Funds. That’s one that we probably should have been more across. 

But look, everyone missed Afterpay. We probably should have been more across the Afterpay story. That was one that I didn’t really understand from a product user perspective and therefore missed the stock.

The post 3 ASX shares I missed that haunt me to this day appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Tony Yoo has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. owns and has recommended Afterpay Limited, Altium, and PINNACLE FPO. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has recommended Webcentral Limited. The Motley Fool Australia owns and has recommended Afterpay Limited and PINNACLE FPO. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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There are some ASX dividend shares that offer shareholders dividend yields of more than 4%.

Some businesses may have higher dividend yields, but the two businesses in this article have yields that may be both sustainable but also leave room for growth over time.

The below two ideas both have much higher yields than what can be found from a typical bank account:

Centuria Industrial REIT (ASX: CIP)

Centuria Industrial is a real estate investment trust (REIT). It is the largest Australian pure-play industrial REIT.

At the end of 31 December 2021, it had total assets of $3.9 billion spread across 80 properties, with net tangible assets (NTA) per unit of $4.21. The portfolio has a weighted average lease expiry (WALE) with a 99.2% portfolio occupancy. This gives the portfolio a high level of income visibility and security.

The ASX dividend share has been looking to increase its exposure to urban infill industrial markets that cater to last-mile e-commerce operators.

Centuria says that tenant demand is very strong thanks to customer shifts to e-commerce plus onshoring to maintain supply chain resilience, and with limited supply within urban infill markets. It’s expecting industrial rents to continue to rise.

It’s now expecting to generate FY22 funds from operations (FFO) guidance of no less than 18.2 cents per unit and re-iterates distribution guidance of 17.3 cents per unit. That represents a distribution yield of 4.6%.

It’s currently rated as a buy by the broker Ord Minnett with a price target of $4.30. The broker has pencilled in an estimated yield of 4.9% in FY23.

Coles Group Ltd (ASX: COL)

Coles is one of the largest supermarket operators in Australia, with only Woolworths Group Ltd (ASX: WOW) as the major competition.

It has seen its share price fall by approximately 7.5% since the start of 2022, which has had the benefit of increasing the possible dividend yield for prospective investors.

Coles is currently rated as a buy by the broker Citi. The estimated grossed-up dividend yield for FY22 is 5.5% and for FY23 it’s 6.2%.

The ASX dividend share will soon be telling investors how it performed for the first six months of FY22. Investors have already had a bit of a look into the performance with the first quarter of FY22.

In the 13 weeks to 26 September 2021, total sales were up 1.5% to $9.76 billion. Supermarket sales were up 1.8% to $8.62 billion. The other Coles divisions are liquor (which includes Liquorland) and Express.

That growth was achieved despite a high level of COVID-induced buying by customers in the first quarter of FY21. Over two years, the total Coles sales were up 12.2%.

Online sales continue to help drive the revenue higher. Supermarket e-commerce sales increased 48% in the first quarter, with sales penetration of 9%. Liquor sales rose 72% and had a sales penetration of 4.5%.

It’s not just sales that are helping grow the bottom line. Coles said that it’s on track to deliver ‘smarter selling’ benefits of more than $200 million in FY22. The company has invested in key efficiency and customer service transformation initiatives including the rollout of customer packing benches and trolley-assisted checkouts.

Coles was optimistic with the end of COVID restrictions, high household savings and launches of new product ranges.

Citi’s earnings estimates suggest the Coles share price is valued at 21x FY22’s estimated earnings.

The post 2 ASX dividend shares with yields above 4% appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Tristan Harrison has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia owns and has recommended COLESGROUP DEF SET. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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The high-performing fund manager Wilson Asset Management (WAM) has recently identified some ASX blue-chip shares that it owns (or owned) in one of its leading portfolios.

WAM operates several listed investment companies (LICs). Two of those LICs are WAM Capital Limited (ASX: WAM) and WAM Research Limited (ASX: WAX).

There’s also one called WAM Leaders Ltd (ASX: WLE) which looks at the larger businesses on the ASX, which you can call ASX blue-chip shares.

WAM says WAM Leaders actively invests in the highest quality Australian companies.

The WAM Leaders portfolio has delivered gross returns (that’s before fees, expenses, and taxes) of 14.6% per annum since its inception in May 2016. That is superior to the S&P/ASX 200 Accumulation Index average return of 8.7%.

These are the blue-chip ASX shares that WAM outlined in its most recent monthly update:

BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP)

For readers that didn’t see it, BHP has released its FY22 half-year result for the six months to 31 December 2021. It included net operating cash flow growing by 42% to US$13.3 billion and attributable profit rising 144% to US$9.4 billion. It also declared an interim dividend of US$1.50 per share, which was 49% higher.

WAM made some comments about BHP and its prospects before seeing the result.

During January, WAM saw strengthening evidence that the slowdown in China had passed a trough. The People’s Bank of China began to signal monetary policy easing by cutting the one-year policy loan rate and added 200 billion yuan into the financial system in order to reduce borrowing costs and encourage credit growth. This helped increase iron ore prices, which led to BHP shares outperforming last month, according to WAM.

On 28 January 2022, BHP consolidated its London-listed company into its Australian-listed business, making it the largest corporation listed on the ASX with a market capitalisation of $237 billion, which equates to more than 11% of the total S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO).

Santos Ltd (ASX: STO)

Santos is the other business that WAM Leaders referred to.

The fund manager noted that in January 2022, oil prices surged to the highest level since 2014, benefiting ASX shares like Santos.

WAM said that the rally was underpinned by a number of factors.

Those factors included strengthening demand following a decline in severity COVID-19 cases globally and mobility returning to pre-COVID levels. Stockpiles of oil are still low, with China at a bare minimum inventory level with the possibility of ‘price-agnostic’ restocking after the Chinese New Year.

Oil production has been interrupted due to a number of Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) members operating with spare capacity, limiting OPEC+’s ability to ramp up production meaningfully.

WAM also pointed to geopolitical tensions with Ukraine and Russia. Russia is responsible for supplying over 10% of global oil. There is a possibility of crippling sanctions against Russia.

The fund manager is expecting oil prices to stay high as these factors play out.

Santos is the preferred pick for rising oil prices because of the highly-rated management team and the expected realisation of synergies after the acquisition of the ASX share Oil Search.

WAM also said that the planned project equity sell downs over 2022 will provide the company with optionality to lift the dividend or accelerate the investment in the energy transition.

The post Top fundie says these blue chip ASX shares are a buy appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Tristan Harrison has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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The CSL Limited (ASX: CSL) share price has dropped by around 24% since 24 November 2021. Considering how large CSL is, that is a sizeable drop in market capitalisation terms.

Is this a great time to buy shares of the biotechnology company? Or is it now fair value?

What does the company actually do?

You aren’t going to see the name CSL at the local shopping centre like you can with Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA), Woolworths Group Ltd (ASX: WOW) or Telstra Corporation Ltd (ASX: TLS).

CSL describes itself as a biotech leader. It operates in more than 35 countries and spends billions of dollars on research and development.

The company has more than 300 plasma collection centres across China, Europe and North America.

CSL’s purpose is to help the health of people who have a range of serious and chronic medical conditions. It develops innovative biotherapies and influenza vaccines that save lives, and help people with life-threatening medical conditions live full lives.

What’s happening to the CSL share price?

CSL shares are now lower than they were during the COVID-19 crash in 2020.

It has experienced a sizeable decline in the valuation as investor concerns rise regarding the rate of inflation and interest rates. Many other ASX growth shares have also seen sizeable declines including Xero Limited (ASX: XRO), WiseTech Global Ltd (ASX: WTC) and Altium Limited (ASX: ALU).

What is happening to CSL shares is not an isolated incident.

The broker Macquarie says that foot traffic is moderating for a sizeable portion of the plasma collection facilities. CSL said that US stimulus, stay-at-home orders and lockdowns caused FY21 plasma collection volume to be down by 20% compared to FY20. There are also increased collection costs.

The company opened 25 new centres in FY21. It was/is planning to open up to 40 new centres in FY22.

FY22 guidance

CSL is continuing to see demand for its main products, with expectations of strong demand for flu vaccines.

Plasma collection collections are expected to improve with CSL plasma initiatives and the COVID-19 vaccine roll-out.

The gross profit margin is expected to ease after increased plasma collection costs, partially offset by “modest” margin expansion due to growth in differentiated flu vaccines.

FY22 revenue is expected to grow by 2% to 5% at constant currency, whilst net profit after tax (NPAT) is expected to come between US$2.15 billion to US$2.25 billion at constant currency.

Is the CSL share price a buy idea?

Macquarie currently rates the healthcare ASX share as a buy, with a price target of $325. That implies a potential upside of more than 30%.

Based on the broker’s estimates, the CSL share price is valued at 38x FY22’s estimated earnings and 31x FY23’s estimated earnings.

The post Down by a quarter in less than three months, is the CSL (ASX:CSL) share price a buy? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Wednesday
• What’s going on with the CSL (ASX:CSL) share price today?
• Healthy income… Is CSL (ASX:CSL) still an ASX 200 dividend growth share?
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• 2 highly rated ASX 200 shares to buy immediately

Motley Fool contributor Tristan Harrison has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. owns and has recommended CSL Ltd. The Motley Fool Australia owns and has recommended Telstra Corporation Limited. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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Share markets around the world are on edge as war threatens to engulf Ukraine.

Russia has sent more than 100,000 troops to its border, making the US and its allies very nervous about its intentions.

Vladmir Putin is demanding guarantees from NATO that Ukraine would never join it, and that NATO would never have any military presence there.

Meanwhile, the US is seriously pondering the security consequences in other parts of the world if it gives in to Russia’s requests.

The US evacuated its embassy in the Ukrainian capital Kyiv overnight, with staff destroying computing equipment on their way out.

Anything can happen in the next few weeks in this volatile situation.

Aside from the physical danger to 44 million people in Ukraine, how could this crisis impact ASX shares on this side of the world?

This week AMP Ltd (ASX: AMP) chief economist Shane Oliver attempted to answer this.

4 ways the Ukraine-Russia crisis can end

The way Oliver sees it, there are 4 possible outcomes from the current stand-off:

1. Russia stands down
2. Russia invades the Donbas, which is already controlled by separatists
3. Russia invades all of Ukraine, but NATO doesn’t respond
4. Russia invades all of Ukraine, and NATO fights back

At the moment, the first scenario is possible, as Russia is still willing to negotiate. 

Oliver predicts that would see stocks, including ASX shares, take a collective sigh of relief and enjoy a brief boost.

“It’s hard to see Russia undertaking a full invasion of Ukraine given the huge cost it would incur, let alone NATO troops being involved,” said Oliver.

“But some combination of scenarios 2 and 3 are possible. But the history of such events points to an initial hit to shares, followed by a rebound.”

Gas to Europe critical for global economy

Any sort of invasion would trigger the US and its allies to start economic sanctions against Russia.

But if that happens, the big retaliatory lever that Putin has is to cut off gas supplies to Europe.

If Russia doesn’t resort to that, Oliver sees a “brief” 2% to 4% loss for share markets and that would be quickly recovered.

The damage could be far worse if Russia cuts the gas pipeline. Global oil prices could skyrocket, and Europe could suffer from “a stagflationary shock”. 

If NATO doesn’t deploy troops, this might mean a roughly 10% dive in share markets, then a recovery over 6 months.

If the 4th and worst scenario comes true, then this would lead to a severe shock for ASX shares.

“Invasion of all of Ukraine with significant sanctions, gas supplies cut & NATO military involvement – this could be a large negative for markets (say -15 to -20%),” said Oliver.

“War in Europe, albeit on its edge, fully reverses the ‘peace dividend’ of the 1990s. Markets may then take 6 to 12 months to recover.”

The post How a war in Ukraine could rock ASX shares appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Tony Yoo has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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On Tuesday, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) was out of form and tumbled into the red. The benchmark index fell 0.5% to 7,206.9 points.

Will the market be able to bounce back from this on Wednesday? Here are five things to watch:

ASX 200 expected to rebound

The Australian share market looks set to rebound on Wednesday following a very positive night of trade on Wall Street. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open the day 57 points or 0.8% higher this morning. In late trade in the United States, the Dow Jones is up 1.1%, the S&P 500 is up 1.3%, and the Nasdaq is up 3%.

CSL half year results

The CSL Limited (ASX: CSL) share price will be in focus this morning when the biotherapeutics giant releases its half year results. According to CommSec, the market is expecting CSL to report a half year profit of US$1.46 billion and an interim dividend of 1.13 US cents. Though, the main focus is likely to be on management’s commentary around plasma collection headwinds and the impact they are having on margins.

Oil prices tumble

Energy producers such as Beach Energy Ltd (ASX: BPT) and Woodside Petroleum Limited (ASX: WPL) could have a difficult day after oil prices tumbled. According to Bloomberg, the WTI crude oil price is down 3.7% to US$91.95 a barrel and the Brent crude oil price has fallen 3.4% to US$93.25 a barrel. Oil prices tumbled after Ukraine-Russia tensions eased.

Gold price slides

Gold miners Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) and Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) could have a subdued day after the gold price edged lower. According to CNBC, the spot gold price is down 0.75% to US$1,855.6 an ounce. Demand for the safe haven asset eased amid reports that Russia is pulling troops back from the Ukraine border.

Fortescue half year results

The Fortescue Metals Group Limited (ASX: FMG) share price will be one to watch when it releases its half year results. According to CommSec, the mining giant is expected to report a profit of US$2.8 billion with an interim dividend of 67 US cents. Morgans has warned that its analysts “expect profitability to be hit from: 1) lower benchmark prices, 2) rising discounts on low grade iron ore, and 3) continuing cost pressures.”

The post 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Wednesday appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Here are the top 10 ASX shares today
• Why did ASX 200 energy shares weigh on the index today?
• Leading brokers name 3 ASX shares to sell today
• Why Adore Beauty, Beach, Fortescue, and Praemium shares are falling
• Hunger Games? Here’s why more Fortescue (ASX:FMG) execs are calling time out on the miner

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Are you interested in adding some ASX growth shares to your portfolio? If you are, you may want to look at the ones listed below.

Here’s what you need to know about these growth shares:

Breville Group Ltd (ASX: BRG)

The first ASX growth share to look at is this leading appliance manufacturer. Its portfolio of brands have been resonating extremely well with consumers for many years thanks to the company’s ongoing investment in research and development. Together with its global expansion and favourable industry tailwinds, Breville has been growing its sales and earnings at a consistently solid rate for many years. The good news is that analysts expect this trend to continue in the future, which could make recent weakness in the Breville share price a buying opportunity.

Morgan Stanley is a very positive on Breville. The broker currently has an overweight rating and $36.00 price target on its shares.

Hipages Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: HPG)

Another ASX growth share that has pulled back recently is Hipages. It is a leading Australian-based online platform and software as a service (SaaS) provider connecting consumers with trusted tradies. There are currently over 30,000 tradies using the platform, which is underpinning strong growth across all its key metrics. In addition, the company just announced the acquisition of New Zealand rival Builderscrack. This opens the door to 4,000 active tradies and a NZ$26 billion total addressable market.

Goldman Sachs is a big fan of Hipages and believes it has a huge market opportunity to grow into in the future. It currently has a buy rating and $4.60 price target on its shares.

Nitro Software Ltd (ASX: NTO)

A final ASX growth share to look at is Nitro Software. It is the document productivity company behind the Nitro Productivity Suite. This suite provides businesses of all sizes with integrated PDF productivity and electronic signature tools. Goldman Sachs initiated coverage on the company last week and is very positive on its future. It commented: “We estimate Nitro can increase its TAM penetration from 0.15% to 1.4% by FY40 implying 9x uplift to Nitro’s current revenue base.”

Goldman has a buy rating and $2.95 price target on its shares.

The post 3 excellent ASX growth shares to buy before it’s too late appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Analysts name 3 small cap ASX tech shares with major upside potential
• 3 fantastic ASX 200 growth shares to buy
• Here are 3 excellent ASX growth shares for investors in February
• Why Cettire, GrainCorp, James Hardie, and Nitro shares are pushing higher
• 4 fantastic ASX growth shares to buy

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. owns and has recommended Hipages Group Holdings Ltd. The Motley Fool Australia owns and has recommended Hipages Group Holdings Ltd. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Nitro Software Limited. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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