Tag: Motley Fool

  • This is how Alphabet (still) makes most of its money

    This article was originally published on Fool.com. All figures quoted in US dollars unless otherwise stated.

    calculate earnings

    This article was originally published on Fool.com. All figures quoted in US dollars unless otherwise stated.

    Kudos to Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOG) (NASDAQ: GOOGL) for looking at opportunities beyond search engines and search-based advertising. YouTube and its cloud computing service arm have been smashing successes, driving at least some of the stock’s gains in recent years. These businesses have also smoothed out potential revenue bumps from one quarter to the next.

    Just for the record, though, the company’s biggest revenue-generating business is still search … by far. Both Alphabet and its investors should ensure that this remains the focal point, even as it expands its presence in other areas.

    It’s still all about search

    Don’t misread the message: YouTube and Google Cloud are knocking it out of the park. The former’s ad-based revenue jumped 48% year over year for the quarter ending in March, as the platform became a surprising destination for entertainment-starved consumers during the pandemic. As it turns out, people like access to a universe of short-form video content. Google’s cloud-based revenue improved 46% during the same quarter, as corporations resumed their migration toward the much more flexible storage and computing format. Search ad revenue only improved 30% year over year for that three-month stretch.

    Keep things in perspective, though. Search still accounts for a little over 58% of Alphabet’s revenue, down only slightly from its proportion in the first quarter of 2020. The pie charts below offer a visual summary of the company’s revenue mix:

    Two pie charts comparing Alphabet revenue in Q1 2020 and Q1 2021 show that search and advertising remains Alphabet's biggest business and revenue source.

    Data source: Alphabet. Charts by author.

    There are some footnotes to add to the discussion.

    Take traffic acquisition costs as an example. They’re incurred by Google to direct people using the web to its affiliated websites, where those users are then monetized in different ways. The company can somewhat throttle ad revenue by spending more or less on web traffic. But traffic acquisition costs (TAC) aren’t completely consistent as a percentage of search and related revenue. Last quarter’s TAC reached $9.7 billion, or 19% of Google Services revenue, versus 22% in the same quarter a year earlier. Sometimes these costs can change for the worse, though.

    Chief among the noteworthy footnotes, however, is the fact that while Alphabet publishes a detailed revenue breakdown, it doesn’t provide the same breakdown for operating income. All we know for sure is that Google Services — which encompasses search, YouTube, Android, and apps — is profitable, while the company’s cloud business and “other bets” continue to lose money. Compare Alphabet’s Q1 operating profit breakdown from this year and last year:

    Two bar charts of operating income in Q1 2020 and Q1 2021 show that the vast majority of Alphabet's profit still comes from search and other services, not Google Cloud or Other Bets.

    Data source: Alphabet. Charts by author.

    The good news is that the company’s cloud loss is clearly shrinking. At its current rate of progress, Google Cloud may even work its way out of the red and into the black within a year or so. The bad news is that while we don’t know for sure whether YouTube is a profitable venture, if it is, it’s not likely to be wildly profitable.

    Analysts and industry insiders are conflicted on the YouTube profitability question, and their collective consensus loosely suggests an operation that’s near breakeven, although the average has a wide standard deviation. Even if YouTube is firmly profitable, its revenue still only accounts for less than 14% of Google Services’ revenue, and less than 11% of Alphabet’s total revenue. Indeed, if every bit of YouTube’s revenue was converted into profit (which it isn’t — not even close), it would still be a minority of Alphabet’s total income.

    In other words, it’s not a game-changer.

    The bullish thesis stands, even if for a different reason

    Many investors are surprised to learn just how minimally YouTube and Google Cloud affect Alphabet’s fiscal results. That’s the point of summarizing this reality in the simple graphics above. And to be fair, while both operating units are relatively small now, they’re both growing nicely, and at a much faster clip than the company’s traditional search advertising business.

    If you’re a shareholder, though, this visual analysis also shows the importance of Alphabet’s core business. The profits made on search and advertising helped fund the expansion of YouTube en route to self-sufficiency, and they are still funding the establishment of Alphabet’s cloud computing operation. Investors will need some further evidence that the time, resources, and innovation put into the cloud segment of its operations is truly helping the bottom line if Alphabet is to remain the cash-cow juggernaut it currently is.

    This is just some food for thought. I believe the stock’s still a buy either way.

    This article was originally published on Fool.com. All figures quoted in US dollars unless otherwise stated.

    The post This is how Alphabet (still) makes most of its money appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

    Wondering where you should invest $1,000 right now?

    When investing expert Scott Phillips has a stock tip, it can pay to listen. After all, the flagship Motley Fool Share Advisor newsletter he has run for more than eight years has provided thousands of paying members with stock picks that have doubled, tripled or even more.*

    Scott just revealed what he believes could be the five best ASX stocks for investors to buy right now. These stocks are trading at near dirt-cheap prices and Scott thinks they could be great buys right now.

    *Returns as of May 24th 2021

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    James Brumley owns shares of Alphabet (A shares). Suzanne Frey, an executive at Alphabet, is a member of The Motley Fool’s board of directors. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. owns shares of and has recommended Alphabet (A shares) and Alphabet (C shares). The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Alphabet (A shares) and Alphabet (C shares). The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

    This article was originally published on Fool.com. All figures quoted in US dollars unless otherwise stated.

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  • Why A2 Milk and Bega shares are looking so tasty now: analyst

    fish eye view of dairy cows in paddock

    Regardless of what COVID-19 and lockdowns do, people still have to eat.

    So if you run with that thesis, Bell Potter this week nominated 2 dairy-related ASX shares as ‘buys’ for investors to consider.

    Senior industrial analyst Jonathan Snape did give a caveat though.

    “Investments in the agricultural and FMCG [fast-moving consumer goods] sector should be considered high risk and come with volatility,” he said in a memo to clients.

    “For this reason, we tend to focus on stocks where we see either: a structural uplift in ROIC [return on invested capital] through the cycle, cyclical growth stories, or counter-seasonal crop exposures.”

    With that in mind, here are the two ASX shares:

    A winning acquisition

    Bega Cheese Ltd (ASX: BGA) won many fans after its acquisition of Lion Dairy & Drinks (LDD), which completed in January.

    “LDD is considered a good strategic fit for Bega, as it diversifies Bega’s dairy exposure, increases scale, and accelerates the shift towards branded products,” said Fairmont Equities managing director Michael Gable last month.

    Snape agreed in his Bell Potter memo.

    “The acquisition of Lion Dairy & Drinks (LDD) and the targeted synergy base is expected to drive a material step change in returns for BGA over the next 3 years.”

    The Bell Potter analyst also thought Bega would be more competitive at the farm gate because of “operational issues” at its rivals.

    Bega shares have only gained 3.84% so far this year, to trade at $5.40 on Friday morning.

    Bell Potter sees a 36% upside, slapping on a price target of $7.35.

    “In the medium term, we see the potential for additional LDD synergies to be realised as seasonal milk flows are better utilised,” said Snape.

    Current earnings don’t reflect future potential

    A2 Milk Company Ltd (ASX: A2M) shareholders have watched in horror as their investment tumbled 63% in the past year.

    An almost overnight elimination of their daigou sales channel into China forced a series of financial downgrades in the past 12 months.

    But with a business that was flying high before the coronavirus struck the globe, Snape reckons A2 Milk could be a recovery bet.

    “While not without near-term risks as supply chains stabilise, at its core we see A2M as a business that, once [margin] is consolidated, has baseline revenue of ~NZ$1.4 to $1.5 billion and EBITDA of ~NZ$300m.”

    If the risks are well-managed, Snape can see the dairy producer reaching NZ$1.7 billion in revenue with NZ$445 million EBITDA.

    “We do not see FY21 earnings as reflective of the returns the business can generate in the medium term, but acknowledge the high level of risk involved in timing the inflection point at which destocking activity concludes.”

    Watermark Funds has recently bought into A2 Milk for similar reasons.

    “The a2 Platinum brand continues to resonate strongly with Chinese mothers,” Watermark portfolio manager Daniel Broeren posted on Livewire.

    “While there are some risks around market size (declining birth rate), and recovery timeline for Chinese travellers (daigou), these are palatable risks when the stock is trading at such a significant discount to prior valuations.” 

    A2 Milk shares were trading at $7.18 on Friday morning. Bell Potter has put on a price target of $8.50, which would be an 18% return from now.

    The post Why A2 Milk and Bega shares are looking so tasty now: analyst appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

    Wondering where you should invest $1,000 right now?

    When investing expert Scott Phillips has a stock tip, it can pay to listen. After all, the flagship Motley Fool Share Advisor newsletter he has run for more than eight years has provided thousands of paying members with stock picks that have doubled, tripled or even more.*

    Scott just revealed what he believes could be the five best ASX stocks for investors to buy right now. These stocks are trading at near dirt-cheap prices and Scott thinks they could be great buys right now.

    *Returns as of May 24th 2021

    More reading

    Motley Fool contributor Tony Yoo owns shares of A2 Milk. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended A2 Milk. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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  • Why Humm, Premier Investments, Western Areas, & Zip shares are sinking

    white arrow pointing down

    The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is having a day to forget. In afternoon trade, the benchmark index is down 1.3% to 7,247.2 points.

    Four ASX shares that are falling more than most today are listed below. Here’s why they are sinking:

    Humm Group Ltd (ASX: HUM)

    The Humm share price is down 3% to 98 cents. Investors have been selling the financial services company’s shares after it revealed that it potentially has past exposure to Forum Finance, which is currently embroiled in fraud allegations. Humm’s initial review puts the company’s potential on-sold exposure at $12 million post-tax.

    Premier Investments Limited (ASX: PMV)

    The Premier Investments share price is down 2.5% to $26.84 due to broad market weakness. In other news, the retail conglomerate has revealed that it has instructed its lawyers to immediately request a copy of the Myer Holdings Ltd (ASX: MYR) shareholder register. Premier has commenced consultation with fellow Myer shareholders regarding the quick reconstitution of a majority independent Myer Board with the necessary skills and experience.

    Western Areas Ltd (ASX: WSA)

    The Western Areas share price is down 7% to $2.29. This appears to have been driven by a broker note out of Macquarie this morning. According to the note, Macquarie has downgraded its shares to a neutral rating and cut the price target on them to $2.60. It made the move in response to lower than expected shipments in the June quarter.

    Zip Co Ltd (ASX: Z1P)

    The Zip share price is down 5.5% to $8.29. A number of tech shares have come under pressure today following a poor night of trade on Wall Street’s Nasdaq index. This has led to the S&P/ASX All Technology Index (ASX: XTX) falling a sizeable 3% this afternoon.

    The post Why Humm, Premier Investments, Western Areas, & Zip shares are sinking appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

    Wondering where you should invest $1,000 right now?

    When investing expert Scott Phillips has a stock tip, it can pay to listen. After all, the flagship Motley Fool Share Advisor newsletter he has run for more than eight years has provided thousands of paying members with stock picks that have doubled, tripled or even more.*

    Scott just revealed what he believes could be the five best ASX stocks for investors to buy right now. These stocks are trading at near dirt-cheap prices and Scott thinks they could be great buys right now.

    *Returns as of May 24th 2021

    More reading

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  • Why the QBE (ASX:QBE) share price is down today

    share price plummeting down

    The QBE Insurance Group Ltd (ASX: QBE) share price has started this morning’s session firmly in the red.

    QBE shares have faced downward pressure following announcements on 2 July the company is facing a representative proceeding from Strand Fitness Pty Ltd “and others”.

    At the time of writing, the QBE share price is down 2.67%, after hitting an intraday high of $10.52. It has since pulled back to the current price of $10.40.

    Let’s take a look at what is behind these downside moves on QBE’s share chart.

    Advised of representative proceedings – so what?

    The proceedings mentioned each make allegations against QBE on wrongfully denying cover to various policy-holders during the COVID-19 lockdown(s), for “losses arising from business interruption”.

    According to QBE:

    The issues raised in these proceedings appear to be substantially similar to those currently before the Australian courts in the second industry test case and QIA’s own Federal Court proceeding against Educational World Travel in liquidation and its liquidator.

    The company also mentions that it is satisfied in denying business interruption claims and that it believes its decision to reserve the claims is robust.

    “The allegations will be defended” state QBE in the release.

    The QBE share price has had a volatile 12 months, firstly after former chief executive Pat Regan was dismissed in unclear circumstances back in September last year.

    The Australian Shareholders Association also voted against the company’s remuneration report at its annual general meeting that occurred on May 5.

    Since then, Australia’s second largest international insurer has appointed Andrew Horton as Group chief executive, whilst announcing Sue Houghton to the post of chief executive of its Australia & Pacific (AUSPAC) division.

    QBE shares have climbed from lows of $8.03 to today’s market value, following these 2 events.

    QBE share price snapshot

    The QBE share price has posted a year to date return of around 22%, ahead of the previous 12 months’ return of 11%.

    These gains have slightly outpaced the S&P / ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO)’s year to date and 12 month return of 9.8% and 21.5% respectively.

    The QBE share price has finished the last 5 trading days 3% in the red, extending the time in the red over the previous 1 month.

    The post Why the QBE (ASX:QBE) share price is down today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

    Should you invest $1,000 in QBE Insurance right now?

    Before you consider QBE Insurance, you’ll want to hear this.

    Motley Fool Investing expert Scott Phillips just revealed what he believes are the 5 best stocks for investors to buy right now… and QBE Insurance wasn’t one of them.

    The online investing service he’s run for nearly a decade, Motley Fool Share Advisor, has provided thousands of paying members with stock picks that have doubled, tripled or even more.* And right now, Scott thinks there are 5 stocks that are better buys.

    *Returns as of May 24th 2021

    More reading

    The author Zach Bristow has no positions in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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  • The Afterpay (ASX:APT) share price is falling on Friday

    white arrow pointing down

    The Afterpay Ltd (ASX: APT) share price is dropping today, along with the entire tech sector.

    Currently, the buy now, pay later (BNPL) giant’s shares are trading for $116.85, 5.5% lower than they were at yesterday’s close.

    The Afterpay share price’s woes are dragging on the S&P/ASX All Technology Index (ASX: XTX), which is dipping 3.18% right now.

    The broader market is also falling today. The All Ordinaries Index (ASX: XAO) is down 1.33% and the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is falling 1.37%.

    Let’s take a closer look at how the Afterpay share price is performing today.

    What’s up with Afterpay today?

    The Afterpay share price opened at $121 today. That was 2.1% lower than its previous closing price of $123.65.

    It’s since plummeted lower, losing the 4.5% it had gained since last Friday’s close. Unless it makes a comeback this afternoon – which is seems unlikely right now – Afterpay will finish the week in the red for the second week in a row.

    Fortunately or unfortunately, Afterpay isn’t alone in its pain today.

    The company’s BNPL competitor Zip Co Ltd (ASX: Z1P) is suffering alongside it.

    The Zip share price is currently 5.24% lower than its previous close, with shares in the company trading for $8.32.

    Afterpay share price snapshot

    Today’s major fall has put Afterpay shares back in the red. They’re currently down 2.47% year to date.

    However, they’re still trading for 57% more than they were this time last year.

    The company has a market capitalisation of around $35.8 billion, with approximately 290 million shares outstanding.

    The post The Afterpay (ASX:APT) share price is falling on Friday appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

    Should you invest $1,000 in Afterpay right now?

    Before you consider Afterpay, you’ll want to hear this.

    Motley Fool Investing expert Scott Phillips just revealed what he believes are the 5 best stocks for investors to buy right now… and Afterpay wasn’t one of them.

    The online investing service he’s run for nearly a decade, Motley Fool Share Advisor, has provided thousands of paying members with stock picks that have doubled, tripled or even more.* And right now, Scott thinks there are 5 stocks that are better buys.

    *Returns as of May 24th 2021

    More reading

    Motley Fool contributor Brooke Cooper has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. owns shares of and has recommended AFTERPAY T FPO and ZIPCOLTD FPO. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of and has recommended AFTERPAY T FPO. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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  • Why the Invictus Energy (ASX:IVZ) share price is dipping lower today

    bars showing share price dip

    The Invictus Energy Ltd (ASX: IVZ) share price is sinking during early afternoon trade. This comes after the energy producer provided an update to its 80% owned and operated Cabora Bassa Project in Zimbabwe.

    When the ASX opened up, the company’s share price fell to an intraday low of 15 cents. However, Invictus shares have slightly rebounded at the time of writing, down 2.86% to 17 cents.

    Farm-in agreement terminated

    Investors are selling Invictus shares following the latest news to come out of the company.

    According to its release, Invictus advised that the farm-in offer received in December last year has been terminated.

    The company stated that it was unable to satisfactorily complete the proposed transaction due to diligence on the unnamed counterparty. The offer had been subjected to finalising technical, legal and commercial due diligence by both parties.

    As a result, discussions between the pair have stopped. Invictus is continuing to engage with other interested parties at this point in time.

    Invictus noted that its near-term focus is now on completing the seismic acquisition program. This is expected to be wrapped up sometime towards the end of the third-quarter of the calendar year.

    Seismic contractor, Polaris Natural Resources Inc. has received work permits for its staff to commence 2D seismic operations. Invictus is assisting Polaris with camp construction and the recruitment of 120 field crew ahead of the program start date.

    Invictus intends to conduct, process, and interpret a minimum of 400-line kilometres of 2D seismic. The company will use this data to refine the location of the Muzarabani-1 well and identify additional prospects.

    Perth-based, Aztech Well Construction has been appointed as the drilling project manager for the upcoming basin opening drilling program.

    Invictus Energy share price summary

    Despite today’s fall, Invictus shares have accelerated by more than 500% over the past 12 months. In 2021 alone, the company’s share price is up by 200%, reflecting positive investor sentiment.

    Invictus presides a market capitalisation of around $99 million, with approximately 585 million shares on its books.

    The post Why the Invictus Energy (ASX:IVZ) share price is dipping lower today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

    Should you invest $1,000 in Invictus right now?

    Before you consider Invictus, you’ll want to hear this.

    Motley Fool Investing expert Scott Phillips just revealed what he believes are the 5 best stocks for investors to buy right now… and Invictus wasn’t one of them.

    The online investing service he’s run for nearly a decade, Motley Fool Share Advisor, has provided thousands of paying members with stock picks that have doubled, tripled or even more.* And right now, Scott thinks there are 5 stocks that are better buys.

    *Returns as of May 24th 2021

    More reading

    Motley Fool contributor Aaron Teboneras has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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  • Why the Viva (ASX:VEA) share price is 5% higher

    share price rising

    The Viva Energy Group Ltd (ASX: VEA) share price is jumping today. At the time of writing, shares in the energy producer are selling for $2.07 – up 5.08%. Earlier in the day, shares were up even higher before retreating back to the current price.

    The massive price rise comes after the company released a large increase in earnings.

    Let’s take a closer look at today’s news.

    The Viva share price is rising

    In a statement to the ASX, Viva Energy revealed its unaudited earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation (EBITDA) of somewhere between $390 million and $410 million for the six months ending 30 June 2021. That represents an increase of 34% on H1 2019. 2019’s results were better for Viva than 2020 due to the shock of COVID-19.

    This large increase in earnings comes despite drops in output across petrol, diesel, and a 60% fall in jet fuels production. The company says retail sale volumes were affected by sporadic lockdowns, with an average fall of roughly 58 million litres per week. 30% of all petrol sales are from premium fuels.

    The margin of its Geelong refinery has improved from $5.10 per barrel in 2019 and $2.90 per barrel in 2020 to $6.60 per barrel for this reporting period. This is a 29% improvement on the 2019 figure.

    Due to the introduction of federal government’s fuel security package (FSP), Viva says it can now proceed with “major maintenance activity” (and associated expenditures) at the plant.

    Investors are enjoying today’s news, judging by the rise in the Viva share price.

    Management commentary

    Viva CEO and Managing Director, Scott Wyatt, said

    Viva Energy has delivered very strong first half performance driven by strong sales growth in our non-aviation businesses, supportive margins, and an improved refining performance since returning to full production in late 2020.

    While retail fuel sales continue to be impacted by periodic lockdowns, and aviation by ongoing border closures, overall growth across all retail and commercial channels has been very encouraging with total Petrol and Diesel sales volumes up 4% and 16% respectively on 1H2019, as a comparison to pre-COVID demand.

    Refining remains challenging, but supported by strong production levels, receipt of the short-term production payment grant, and the long-term fuel security package commencing 1 July 2021 that minimises the downside volatility of refining margins. Our recovery program remains on track, and I am very pleased with the performance of the business.

    Viva share price snapshot

    Over the past 12 months, the Viva share price has increased by 1.29%. Since hitting its 52-week high of $2.27 a share – Viva’s value has dropped approximately 10%.

    Viva Energy has a market capitalisation of approximately $3.4 billion.

    The post Why the Viva (ASX:VEA) share price is 5% higher appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

    Should you invest $1,000 in Viva Energy right now?

    Before you consider Viva Energy, you’ll want to hear this.

    Motley Fool Investing expert Scott Phillips just revealed what he believes are the 5 best stocks for investors to buy right now… and Viva Energy wasn’t one of them.

    The online investing service he’s run for nearly a decade, Motley Fool Share Advisor, has provided thousands of paying members with stock picks that have doubled, tripled or even more.* And right now, Scott thinks there are 5 stocks that are better buys.

    *Returns as of May 24th 2021

    More reading

    The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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  • Here’s why the Kogan (ASX:KGN) share price is falling on Friday

    asx share price fall represented by lady in striped tshirt making sad face against orange background

    The Kogan.com Ltd (ASX: KGN) share price is taking a tumble in trade on Friday. With no announcements out from the online retailer, it appears the company is at the peril of a broader selloff in the market.

    At the time of writing, the Kogan share price is 3.79% lower to $11.16 apiece. Likewise, the consumer discretionary sector is the second worst-performing today, down 2.2%.

    For comparison, the broader S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is trending 1.4% lower to 7,237.2 points.

    Let’s cover a couple of reasons why Kogan might be feeling the pinch today.

    Making the most shorted

    While the Kogan share price is possibly feeling the pain of a widespread red day, there’s a couple of reasons that could be making it worse for this company.

    Firstly, the company has found itself the target of heavy short selling over recent times. As covered on Wednesday, Kogan shares are the second most heavily shorted shares on the ASX this week. According to ASIC data, short interest was 10.2% — only beaten by Webjet Limited (ASX: WEB).

    Often companies that are heavily shorted find themselves under added pressure on negative trading sessions. As a result, this could be adding to the displeasure of Kogan investors on Friday.

    Secondly, the Kogan share price experienced a possible sugar hit when roughly a third of Australia entered lockdowns in late June. Since then, many restrictions have been lifted across states and territories.

    With this in mind, any potential uplift in online sales may have been short-lived.

    Kogan share price recap

    Investors of the online retailer would be well experienced with red days by now. The Kogan share price has been on a bearish trend since late October 2020. Back then the company’s shares reached a peak of $25.57, a far cry from today’s ~$11.16 figure.

    Since the beginning of the year, the Kogan share price has fallen more than 42%. As a result, the company now seats around a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 27.55. This compares to the retail industry average P/E ratio of 38.2 times.

    The post Here’s why the Kogan (ASX:KGN) share price is falling on Friday appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

    Wondering where you should invest $1,000 right now?

    When investing expert Scott Phillips has a stock tip, it can pay to listen. After all, the flagship Motley Fool Share Advisor newsletter he has run for more than eight years has provided thousands of paying members with stock picks that have doubled, tripled or even more.*

    Scott just revealed what he believes could be the five best ASX stocks for investors to buy right now. These stocks are trading at near dirt-cheap prices and Scott thinks they could be great buys right now.

    *Returns as of May 24th 2021

    More reading

    Motley Fool contributor Mitchell Lawler owns shares in Kogan. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. owns shares of and has recommended Kogan.com ltd. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of and has recommended Kogan.com ltd. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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  • Brokers name 3 ASX shares to buy today

    ASX shares Business man marking buy on board and underlining it

    It has been another busy week for Australia’s top brokers. This has led to the release of a large number of broker notes.

    Three broker buy ratings that have caught my eye are summarised below. Here’s why brokers think these ASX shares are in the buy zone:

    Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG)

    According to a note out of Morgan Stanley, its analysts have retained their overweight rating and $175.00 price target on this investment bank’s shares. This follows news that Macquarie is acquiring the Global Equities and Fixed Income business from AMP Limited (ASX: AMP). Morgan Stanley notes that the purchase is consistent with Macquarie’s strategy and expects it to add further scale and diversity. The Macquarie share price is trading at $153.95 today.

    Megaport Ltd (ASX: MP1)

    A note out of UBS reveals that its analysts have retained their buy rating and lifted their price target on this elastic interconnection services provider’s shares to $18.75. This follows the release of Megaport’s latest quarterly update, which revealed strong customer and ports growth. UBS is expecting this momentum to continue in FY 2022 and suspects consensus upgrades could follow if it does. The Megaport share price is trading at $16.18 this afternoon.

    Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC)

    Analysts at Morgans have retained their add rating and $29.50 price target on this banking giant’s shares. This morning the broker updated its forecasts to reflect a probable provision from Westpac’s potential Forum Finance fraud and the benefits of its Westpac Life NZ sale. While this has resulted in a 2% reduction in its earnings estimates for FY 2021, it has no real bearing on its future estimates. In light of this, the broker holds firm with its positive rating. The Westpac share price is trading at $25.26 today.

    The post Brokers name 3 ASX shares to buy today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

    Wondering where you should invest $1,000 right now?

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  • Is the CSL (ASX:CSL) vaccine business under threat?

    healthcare asx share price flat represented by doctor shrugging

    The CSL Limited (ASX: CSL) share price has been underperforming the ASX 200 in 2021.

    Since the start of the year, the biotherapeutics company’s shares are down 2%. This compares to a 10% gain by the benchmark index.

    Why is the CSL share price underperforming?

    The main drag on the CSL share price is 2021 has been concerns over its plasma collections due to COVID-19 headwinds. Given that these are a core ingredient to many of its leading therapies, investors fear that margins could be squeezed in the near future due to collection constraints.

    However, this morning one leading broker has brought up another potential cause for concern. This time it is with CSL’s Seqirus vaccine business.

    What’s happening?

    According to the note, Goldman Sachs believes new vaccines using mRNA could potentially disrupt the seasonal influenza vaccine market in the future.

    Goldman notes: “Whilst vaccine development efforts using mRNA have been around for many years, the COVID-19 pandemic materially accelerated commercialization timelines, provided strong validation to the technology and considerably raised awareness across healthcare professionals, policy-makers and the general public.”

    The broker notes that industry leader Sanofi, which had a 48% share of the 2020 influenza vaccine market, is making progress with its mRNA candidate.

    It said: “Sanofi, partnered with Translate Bio, progressed its first mRNA candidate into Ph1 trials last month, and has just committed €400m of annual investment into a new mRNA Centre of Excellence (from which it expects to produce 6+ clinical candidates by 2025E).”

    In addition, GlaxoSmithKline has partnered with CureVac for a 2nd-generation LNP/mRNA vaccine candidate that has demonstrated strong/durable immunogenicity in pre-clinical studies. GlaxoSmithKline’s share of the influenza vaccine market was 16% in 2020.

    What about CSL?

    The broker notes that little is known of CSL’s activities, which it appears a touch concerned about.

    Especially given how it has a 29% share of the market and Goldman is estimating that this side of the business will contribute US$1.6 billion (16% of total revenue) and EBIT of US$430 million (14% of EBIT) in FY 2021.

    Its analysts commented: “CSL is notable as the only major incumbent flu vaccine supplier without tangible information about its own mRNA program (currently ‘pre-clinical’ but with no further detail). If mRNA-based approaches can fulfil their potential in seasonal influenza, as appears increasingly possible, then CSL may need to develop/license its own viable mRNA program more quickly in order to mitigate the potential threat to its vaccine business.”

    Is mRNA the real deal?

    Goldman Sachs acknowledges that there are still a lot of unknowns with the technology. However, it sees significant potential in it.

    It concluded: “Whilst there are many questions which must be answered around the prospects for mRNA in flu, the technology certainly offers the potential for one of the more meaningful innovations in the space since egg-based viral replication was first commercialised >70 years ago.”

    The post Is the CSL (ASX:CSL) vaccine business under threat? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

    Should you invest $1,000 in CSL right now?

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    Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. owns shares of and has recommended CSL Ltd. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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