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The Costa Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: CGC) share price is rebounding from yesterday’s selloff.

In morning trade, the horticulture company’s shares are up over 1% to $3.41.

Why did the Costa share price crash lower on Thursday?

The Costa share price crashed 24% lower yesterday following the release of its annual general meeting update.

Costa revealed that it is expecting its first half performance to be marginally ahead of the prior corresponding period. This is being driven by weakness in its domestic operations and currency headwinds.

Is this a buying opportunity?

According to a note out of Goldman Sachs, its analysts believe the selloff was overdone.

And while the broker has cut its price target by 9% to $4.85, it has held firm with its buy recommendation.

Based on the current Costa share price, this implies potential upside of 42% over the next 12 months.

What did Goldman say?

Goldman said: “CGC has released a trading update at its AGM. Performance across categories has been mixed YTD: international is performing very strongly, but challenges in domestic produce have emerged, particularly in the mushroom operations (labour sourcing) and the Avocado and Tomato categories (price deflation).”

“We see a positive earnings growth trajectory for the company over the medium term driven largely by volume growth from new plantings. However, the challenges observed through this half illustrate the leverage CGC has not only to agricultural conditions (as we saw through 2019), but also to market conditions.”

“We think the share price reaction today (-24%) is overdone, and with our revised 12m TP by -9% to A$4.85 providing 44% upside, we retain our Buy recommendation,” it concluded.

Goldman made the revision to its price target after reducing its FY 2021/FY 2022/FY 2023 by -22%/-12%/-14%. However, despite these downgrades, the broker still believes Costa can grow its earnings per share by a CAGR of 19% between FY 2020 and FY 2023.

In light of this, with the Costa share price trading at 19x estimated FY 2021, it sees a lot of value here for investors.

More reading

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• The Costa Group (ASX:CGC) share price is down 22%. Could it be a buy?
• Why ALS, Costa, Fisher & Paykel Healthcare, & Ramsay shares are falling
• ASX 200 flat: Costa crashes & Fisher & Paykel Healthcare tumbles

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The Latitude Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: LFS) share price is climbing in early trade today. At the time of writing, the company’s shares are changing hands for $2.50, a rise of 2.04%.

This comes after the instalments and lending business released a trading update for the first half of 2021.

How is Latitude performing?

The Latitude share price is climbing today following a positive update showing improved business performance.

According to this morning’s release, Latitude’s loan volumes for the six months ending 30 June 2021 (H1 21) are expected to come in at $3.7 billion.

This is an increase of 7%, with personal loan volumes up 25% in Australia, and 50% in New Zealand compared to H1 20.

Latitude noted the growth in volume comes despite its international and travel segment being impacted by COVID-19.

Those categories are forecast to be down 46% and 74% respectively on the prior corresponding period (pcp) due to border closures.

Gross loan receivables are projected to remain consistent with H2 20 levels at $6.5 billion. According to the company, this is because customers have been able to make early repayments on loans due to lower spending and government cash stimulus packages.

Costs are anticipated to fall by around 10% over the pcp due to management’s focus on its simplification program.

Pleasingly, the company’s book credit value has improved with net charge-offs predicted to decline by around 40% from H1 20.

As a result, Latitude expects a net profit after tax (NPAT) of between $115 million and $120 million for the six months ending 30 June 2021.

Management said the current 7-day lockdown in Victoria will not affect its H1 21 guidance.

Management commentary

Latitude managing director and CEO Ahmed Fahour said:

Volumes have recovered strongly in all areas other than travel and current indications are that this trend will continue for the remainder of 2021. Instalments volumes have been pleasing, particularly in the home segment, and we see this performance continuing. Personal loans and auto loans volumes are growing strongly and Latitude is now the number two originator of new personal loans in Australia and one of the leaders in New Zealand. We remain optimistic that travel volumes will recover quickly when borders reopen, although the reopening has been further delayed.

The LatitudePay+ (big-ticket buy now, pay later) pilot is currently in market and will move to full launch in 2H21. Latitude will also apply for the necessary licences to build its instalments business in Singapore and Malaysia in the coming months, in conjunction with our key merchant partners.

About the Latitude share price

Since listing on the ASX late last month, Latitude shares have dropped by around 7%. This is despite the company raising $150 million in its initial public offering (IPO) at $2.60 per share.

Based on valuation grounds, Latitude has a market capitalisation of $2.5 billion, with exactly 1 billion shares on its registry.

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• The Pepper Money (ASX:PPM) share price sinks below listing price

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The BetMakers Technology Group Ltd (ASX: BET) share price is sinking on Friday.

In morning trade, the betting technology company’s shares are down 9% to $1.45.

Why is the BetMakers share price sinking?

The BetMakers share price is sinking after the company confirmed speculation that it is interested in acquiring the Tabcorp Holdings Limited (ASX: TAH) Wagering and Media business.

According to the release, the company has submitted a non-binding, indicative proposal to acquire Tabcorp’s Wagering and Media business for an enterprise value of $4 billion.

Under the indicative proposal, Tabcorp would receive $1 billion in cash, which BetMakers plans to fund through debt financing, and $3 billion in BetMakers shares. In respect to the latter, the number of shares to be issued will be fixed at the time a transaction is agreed and priced at a 15% premium to the traded price of BetMakers prior to signing.

Based on the 10-day volume weighted average price (VWAP) to 26 May 2021, the indicative proposal would provide Tabcorp shareholders with an approximate 65% interest (on a fully diluted basis) in the combined BetMakers and Tabcorp Wagering and Media business plus A$1 billion in cash to Tabcorp.

Furthermore, BetMakers has proposed that the share consideration is distributed in specie to Tabcorp shareholders on a pro rata basis. This will allows Tabcorp shareholders to convert their indirect interest in Tabcorp Wagering and Media into a direct and liquid shareholding in the combined entity, providing flexibility and choice.

The Combined Entity is expected to be moderately geared at less than 2.5x net debt / EBITDA on a pro forma basis.

Acquisition rationale

There are a number of reasons that BetMakers believes the acquisition and proposal represents a compelling value proposition for both sets of shareholders.

One is that it brings together two highly complementary businesses to create a competitive global wagering and technology platform with scalable operations across both B2B and B2C markets.

Management also notes that the combined entity will be able to take advantage of BetMakers’ technology and product innovation to compete more aggressively in an increasingly digital-driven consumer market.

Another is that global opportunities will be pursued by leveraging the incumbent and iconic Australian TAB brand and content with BetMakers’ established global network, market access and strong partnerships with US racing bodies.

It also expects the monetisation of Tabcorp Wagering and Media’s media content on a global scale through BetMakers’ network of global partners.

BetMakers’ Strategic Adviser, Matt Tripp, said: “I am excited by the potential opportunity to reinvigorate the Tabcorp Wagering and Media business. There is significant potential for the business to grow in partnership with BetMakers and I hope to get the opportunity to support the Australian racing industry which relies on the success and growth of TAB.”

“I have been very impressed with the world-class team BetMakers has put together and the enormous growth opportunities they have created globally, including in the rapidly emerging US wagering landscape, and the timing could not be better for this unique opportunity. Aside from the value that this offer is anticipated to unlock for shareholders in both companies, this is an incredibly exciting opportunity for the Tabcorp Wagering and Media business to maximise its commercial potential on a global scale.”

Tabcorp response

Tabcorp has acknowledged the receipt of the proposal. However, its Board has not yet formed a view on the merits of the proposal. It intends to assess it in the context of the previously announced strategic review.

The Tabcorp share price is up 4% on the news. Judging by the market’s reaction, it appears as though investors believe Tabcorp shareholders are getting the better end of the deal here.

More reading

• Here’s why the Betmakers (ASX:BET) share price just hit a 52-week high
• Why Airtasker, Betmakers, Kogan, & Telix shares are charging higher
• Fresh bets placed on Tabcorp (ASX:TAH) takeover speculation
• Why the BetMakers (ASX:BET) share price lifted higher today
• ASX winners and losers from the Victorian budget

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The EROAD Ltd (ASX: ERD) share price is on the move on Friday morning.

At the time of writing, the transportation technology services company’s shares up 0.5% to $5.26.

Why is the EROAD share price edging higher?

Investors have been buying the company’s shares this morning following the release of its full year results.

According to the release, for the 12 months ended 31 March, EROAD reported a 13% increase in revenue to NZ$91.6 million and a 13% lift in earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) to NZ$30.7 million.

Management advised that this was driven by growth in contracted units across all its markets and a stable average SaaS monthly revenue per unit (ARPU) of NZ$58.30 per month.

At the end of the period, the company’s Annualised Monthly Recurring Revenue metric (AMRR) had increased to NZ$88.4 million from NZ$84 million a year earlier.

EROAD’s Chief Executive Officer, Steven Newman, said: “In a year that presented challenging macro-economic conditions we continued to grow across all of our markets delivering a 13% increase in revenue and Earnings Before Interest, Tax, Depreciation and Amortisation (EBITDA) year on year. In addition, we accelerated our growth strategies to take better advantage of opportunities that have emerged from the challenges of the last twelve months. EROAD is now stronger than ever before, better positioned to capture the increasing growth opportunities in telematics.”

Outlook

EROAD has reiterated the guidance it previously provided for FY 2022. Management explained: “It is anticipated that the percentage revenue growth in FY22 will strengthen from that delivered in FY21, but not be at the level experienced in FY20.”

In New Zealand, the company expects to add a similar number of units to that seen prior to FY 2021 (~9,000 p.a). Its New Zealand Ehubo sales will be complemented with Clarity Dashcam sales.

Whereas in North America, EROAD expects increased unit growth in FY 2022 as the economy returns to pre-COVID conditions. This should be supported by Clarity Dashcam sales.

In Australia, it expects growth during the next two years to come predominantly from an Enterprise pipeline of 15,000 to 20,000 vehicles.

Finally, management advised that it continues to accelerate new product delivery for future growth in FY 2023 and FY 2024. This will see the company spend 24% to 27% of revenue on research and development during FY 2022. Positively, despite this, EROAD anticipates that its EBITDA margin will be maintained for FY 2022 and improve at the end of the financial year.

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The Inghams Group Ltd (ASX: ING) share price is on course to finish the week with a very strong gain.

In early trade, the poultry producer’s shares are up 10% to $3.46.

Why is the Inghams share price racing higher?

Investors have been bidding the Inghams share price higher today following the release of a trading update and its guidance for FY 2021.

According to the release, based on its assessment of consensus estimates, and taking into account its current operating performance, management believes its forecast EBITDA may exceed, and forecast statutory NPAT may materially exceed, the market’s expectations in FY 2021.

This could be bad news for short sellers. The Inghams share price has consistently been among the most shorted list on the ASX this year. At the last count, 8% of its shares were held short.

What is Inghams forecasting?

For the 12 months ending 25 June, Inghams is forecasting statutory EBITDA of $438 million to $448 million and statutory net profit after tax of $80 million to $87 million. This is based on a post AASB16 basis.

On an underlying pre AASB16 basis, the company expects to report EBITDA of $203 million to $213 million and net profit after tax of $96 million to $103 million.

Management advised that this has been driven by the benefits derived from operational efficiencies implemented throughout the year. It also notes that trading conditions have improved since COVID-19 restrictions eased over the last six months.

However, it has warned about the consensus estimates that it is judging its performance against.

It advised: “The Company has formed its view on consensus based on a review of the most recently available analyst research. The Company also notes that analyst estimates available through recognised third-party data providers and systems appear to incorporate forecasts for the Company based on a mixture of both pre and post AASB16 estimates, and therefore may not be reliable indicators of market expectations.”

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Financial advisers assess the risk of an investment differently depending on external “noise” like their own mood that day or how hungry they are.

That’s according to the new report Under The Microscope: ‘Noise’ and Investment Advice, that technology firm Oxford Risk released this week.

Oxford’s research gave different financial advisers the same product to assess for an imaginary client.

Worryingly, they gave “remarkably different judgements” on the risk. Moreover, asset allocation advice was “scattershot”.

“Humans are wonderful at many things. But they are inefficient and unreliable decision makers, especially where many moving parts are involved – as in risk capacity,” said the report author Dr Greg Davies.

“Humans are prone to ‘noisy’ errors – unduly influenced by irrelevant factors, such as their current mood, the time since their last meal, and the weather.”

The report, in fact, found the financial advice provided was “closer to totally random than totally consistent”.

Noises that influence investment advice

There were certain characteristics of advisers that correlated to the risk advice they gave. The report said these were the most influential:

• Married advisers recommend slightly lower risk levels than advisers who are single
• University-educated advisers have lower risk capacity assessments on average
• Salaried advisers give higher recommended risk levels than those on commission or fee-based

“Advisers who are single tend to recommend more cash,” read the report.

Remarkably, the number of years in the industry doesn’t have a measurable impact.

“Interestingly, how experienced the adviser is, or how many clients they serve seems to make no significant difference to the advice delivered.”

The research concluded the personality of the professional, understandably, also has an influence.

“Advisers who themselves are more tolerant to risk tend to pass it on to their clients.”

Even in instances in the study when multiple advisers came up with the same risk judgment, they didn’t agree on the asset allocations the client should have.

“Advisers who have higher composure do recommend significantly more equity for each risk level,” the report stated.

“This makes a lot of sense as these advisers are likely to be much less anxious about short-term volatility and more focussed on long-term risk vs return.”

Oxford Risk supplies software to financial advisers and institutional investors to help them override behavioural biases.

More reading

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A little-known ASX tech share is ripe for the picking currently, according to one analyst.

Totus Capital investment analyst Tim Warner conceded Dicker Data Ltd (ASX: DDR) is not a fashionable tech business — but that’s the appeal.

“Dicker Data is not the high-flying glamorous tech company that continuously burns cash with the future ‘promise’ of one day being profitable,” he posted on Livewire.

“It is quite the opposite. Dicker Data has been in business since 1978 (yes, that is before the first PC was even released)… Since listing on the ASX in 2011, revenues have grown circa 7 times to $2 billion, and profits by circa 13 times.”

The company is a distributor of hardware and software. It acts as the “middleman” between big global vendors and Australian technology retailers.

Dicker leads the distribution game in Australia with a 29% market share, according to Warner.

This ASX tech share jumped from a COVID-19 crash low of $4.40 in March 2020 to more than $12 in February.

“With the COVID-19 induced work from home phenomena, the demand for hardware and software from businesses to facilitate their employees to work from home surged through the first half of 2020,” said Warner.

Shares are trading at a 30% discount

However, the stock price has come off the boil in recent months as it’s been swept up in the general sell-off of ASX tech shares. Dicker Data was selling at $10.48 at market close on Thursday.

Totus Capital has jumped on this opportunity, buying more Dicker shares.

“At current, there is a period of flux in the perception of Dicker Data’s business value, due to the uncertainties around being a perceived COVID beneficiary as well as its supply chain suffering from global chip shortages,” he said.

“However, we believe this is creating an opportunity to buy a high quality business at an attractive price.”

Why Dicker Data shares are attractive

Warner listed 5 reasons why the distributor has excellent prospects: long-term past success, high return on equity, owner-operator culture, industry growth and an irresistible valuation.

Dicker Data has recorded 19% revenue growth per year and 26% profit before tax growth for the decade since June 2010, he said.

The Motley Fool reported last week that AIM chief investment officer Charlie Aitken thought return on capital is the best measure of business performance.

Dicker passes this test well, according to Warner.

“Dicker has consistently generated high returns on equity, averaging 38% over the last 10 years,” he said.

“DDR benefits from typical scale economies, allowing it to compete on price with other global distributors such as Ingram Micro and Synnex Corporation (NYSE: SNX). However, it differentiates against its competitors through its value-added service, driven by its technical expertise and performance-based culture.”

The co-founders, chief executive David Dicker and ex-wife Fiona Brown, are still on the board with substantial ownership. The other directors also have holdings that add up to about $14 million.

“A testament to their conviction in the long-term success of the business is that the key management personnel have not been issued shares or options — and have built their equity stakes by buying shares on-market (buying as recently as April 2021 at levels above $10 per share).”

At the time of Warner’s commentary earlier this week, Dicker Data shares were going for $9.40.

“You are buying a high-quality business on a forward PE multiple of less than 25 times that has a proven track record of success,” he said.

“You will get paid a 4% fully franked dividend whilst you back a shareholder-aligned management team to capitalise on multiple industry tailwinds.”

More reading

• 2 top mid-cap ASX shares that could be long-term buys
• Dicker Data (ASX:DDR) share price uninspired by first quarter results

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There are some S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) shares that could be the right picks for income.

The below two businesses are amongst the market leaders in the country and have long-term growth plans to try to grow profit, whilst also paying dividends:

Premier Investments Limited (ASX: PMV)

Premier Investments operates a number of retail brands. Names like Smiggle, Peter Alexander, Just Jeans and Jay Jays are some of the names it runs. It also has a large investment in Breville Group Ltd (ASX: BRG).

The business has seen a lot of online and profit margin growth, which is what is driving the bottom line. In the first six months of FY21, global like for like sales went up 18.2% with the retail gross margin increased 286 basis points. Online sales surged 61.3%.

Retail earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) grew 88.5% to $237.8 million, with the EBIT margin increasing 1,308 basis points.

The business is focused on its profitability. The accelerated swing in customer preference to shopping online has meant that management are looking at each store’s profitability. It has closed around 50 stores over the last 12 months, showing that the company is willing to walk away from stores with high rents that deliver unprofitable sales. The business has been able to reduce its rent to sales ratio by 318 basis points to 12.7% of sales.

The ASX 200 share believes that Smiggle is a powerful global brand set to rebound and grow from the COVID-19 impacts as children return to school and stores open.

At the current Premier Investments share price, it has a projected grossed-up dividend yield of 4.3% according to Commsec.

Cleanaway Waste Management Ltd (ASX: CWY)

Cleanaway describes itself as Australia’s leading total waste management, industrial and environmental services company.

It has over 6,000 staff and over 5,000 specialist vehicles spread across more than 260 locations.

The business has been steadily growing its dividend over the past five years, including through the difficult COVID-19 year.

Cleanaway believes it has a positive future with a growing footprint of prized infrastructure assets that are making a sustainable future possible.

The business says that market growth is being driven by the emergence of energy from waste, increased resource recovery and value chain extension supported by rising levies and government policy.

The ASX 200 share recently announced an acquisition from Suez Australia, a portfolio of strategic post collection assets in Sydney. Those assets comprise two landfills and five transfer stations. They will be acquired for $501 million. It’s expected that these landfills will have more than 15 years of available airspace.

The brokers at Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) rate Cleanaway as a buy with a price target of $3. The broker likes the long runway that Cleanaway has from the circular economy trend.

According to Macquarie, the Cleanaway share price is valued at 32x FY21’s estimated earnings.

More reading

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The Link Administration Holdings Ltd (ASX: LNK) share price could be one to watch on Friday.

This follows the release of an update on its PEXA business after the market close yesterday.

What did Link announce?

According to the release, Link has received a proposal for its 44.18% stake in the PEXA business from private equity firm Kohlberg Kravis Roberts (KKR). Property listings company Domain Holdings Australia Ltd (ASX: DHG) is expected to team up with KKR on the deal.

The release explains that KKR’s offer values the PEXA business at $3 billion plus cash on the balance sheet on a 100% basis. PEXA has $126 million of cash on its balance sheet at the end of March.

This would value Link’s stake at approximately $1.32 billion.

Proposal conditions

KKR’s offer comes with a number of conditions.

These include the agreement on transaction documentation, including a Sale and Purchase Agreement, Foreign Investment Review Board approval and relevant approvals from the State land registries, and an agreement by PEXA shareholders to a number of actions and waivers under the existing PEXA Shareholders’ Deed.

It is also conditional on the IPO of PEXA not proceeding.

What now?

KKR advised that the proposal remains open and is capable of acceptance until 5:00pm on Sunday 30 May 2021.

Link advised that it is considering the proposal and is obtaining advice from its financial and legal advisors. However, as no decision has been made, both the trade sale process and exploration of the viability of an IPO continue to proceed.

The Link Board advised that they will continue to act in the best interests of the company and seek to maximise the value of its PEXA investment.

It also intends to keep the market informed of any material developments in accordance with its continuous disclosure obligations.

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If you’re looking for some top ASX dividend shares to add to your income portfolio, then you might want to look at the ones listed below.

Here’s what income investors need to know about them:

Carsales.Com Ltd (ASX: CAR)

This auto listings company could be an ASX dividend share to consider buying.

Carsales is the dominant force in the ANZ market and has a number of growing operations across the world. It is also planning to expand into the US market with the acquisition of Trader Interactive.

This acquisition appears to have gone down well with analysts at Morgans. The broker has recently put an add rating and $20.82 price target on the company’s shares.

Morgans is also forecasting dividends of 56 cents per share in FY 2021 and 59 cents per share in FY 2022. Based on the current Carsales share price of $19.09, this will mean fully franked yields of 2.9% and 3.1%, respectively.

Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC)

If you haven’t got exposure to the banking sector, then it could be worth considering Westpac.

Australia’s oldest bank has well and truly returned to form since the height of the pandemic. For example, during the first half of FY 2021, the bank reported cash earnings of $3,537 million. This was a 256% increase over the prior corresponding period and a 119% lift over the second half of FY 2020.

In light of its strong form, the Westpac board declared a fully franked interim dividend of 58 cents per share.

One broker that expects the dividends to continue to increase is Morgan Stanley. It is forecasting fully franked dividends per share of $1.18 and $1.25 over the next two years. Based on the latest Westpac share price of $26.09, this will mean yields of 4.5% and 4.8%.

Morgan Stanley has an overweight rating and $29.20 price target on the bank’s shares.

More reading

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