Tag: Motley Fool

  • The BetMakers (ASX:BET) share price is up 28% this month. Here’s why

    asx share price rise represented by excited investor making fist at computer screen

    BetMakers Technology Group Ltd (ASX: BET) shares have soared through April. At the time of writing, the BetMakers share price is trading at $1.34, 28% higher than it was at the end of last month.

    BetMakers is a business-to-business company providing data and analytics. It works in two segments: content and integrity, and wholesale wagering products.

    This month, the company has earned its share price’s gains by promising big and delivering bigger. Let’s take a look at two major announcements that helped boost the BetMakers share price in April.

    Investor update

    We haven’t heard much from BetMakers lately, but what we have heard has been upbeat.

    On 29 March, the company released an investor update filled with positive news. The BetMakers share price jumped almost 6% higher on the day of the release.  

    Within the update, BetMakers shared that it expected to have generated revenues of $5 million across the third quarter of 2021, which would deliver a 25% quarter-on-quarter increase.

    The company further highlighted that it has another four brands launching on its white-label wagering platform in the fourth quarter of the 2021 financial year.

    BetMakers also shared that, in the first half of the 2021 financial year, it made 70% of its revenue from Australasia. As The Motley Fool has previously reported, this may have been the major catalyst for its massive growth throughout 2020. As a country, Australia has one of the highest rates of gambling losses in the world, yet it still increased by 35% during Victoria’s COVID-19 induced lockdown.

    The company is also in the process of acquiring Sportech’s racing and digital businesses which BetMakers says will make it one of the leading technology providers for racing services in more than 30 countries.

    Quarterly results

    Following its March update, investors still had another month left to anticipate what BetMakers had actually achieved over the third quarter. The company released its quarterly report on Wednesday this week.

    The BetMakers share price opened slightly lower on Wednesday, but those losses were soon recouped. Since then, the BetMakers’ share price has gained another 6%.

    The company’s quarterly report proved to be even more upbeat than it had estimated in its investor update.

    BetMakers recorded $5.2 million of receipts from customers – up 31% on the last quarter.

    Further, in March the company had predicted it would have $100 million in cash. But by the end of the quarter, it actually had $125 million in the bank.  

    Over the quarter, the company received around $57 million after costs from a share purchase plan and an institutional placement.

    BetMakers share price snapshot

    All in all, ASX investors who had faith in BetMakers’ forecast at the end of last month can pat themselves on the back. April’s performance has just added to the meteoritic rise in the BetMakers share price. Currently, shares in the company are up a whopping 90% year to date. Even more staggering – they’re up 375% over the last 12 months.  

    This has left the company with a market capitalisation of around $1 billion. There are approximately 775 million BetMakers shares outstanding.

    Where to invest $1,000 right now

    When investing expert Scott Phillips has a stock tip, it can pay to listen. After all, the flagship Motley Fool Share Advisor newsletter he has run for more than eight years has provided thousands of paying members with stock picks that have doubled, tripled or even more.*

    Scott just revealed what he believes are the five best ASX stocks for investors to buy right now. These stocks are trading at dirt-cheap prices and Scott thinks they are great buys right now.

    *Returns as of February 15th 2021

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    Motley Fool contributor Brooke Cooper has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. owns shares of Betmakers Technology Group Ltd. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Betmakers Technology Group Ltd. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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  • Why Beach Energy, Bigtincan, Pointerra, & ResMed are sinking today

    Fall in ASX share price represented by white arrow pointing down

    In afternoon trade, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) looks set to finish the week on a disappointing note. At the time of writing, the benchmark index is down 0.8% to 7,028.1 points.

    Four ASX shares that are falling more than most today are listed below. Here’s why they are sinking:

    Beach Energy Ltd (ASX: BPT)

    The Beach Energy share price has crashed 21% lower to $1.32 after the release of its quarterly update. That update fell short of expectations due largely to issues at the Western Flank oil and gas operation. These issues are so severe that its full year guidance has been downgraded and its five-year outlook has been withdrawn.

    Bigtincan Holdings Ltd (ASX: BTH)

    The Bigtincan share price has sunk 11.5% to 88 cents following its third quarter update. Although the sales enablement automation platform provider advised that it now expects to hit the upper end of its guidance range, investors appear disappointed with its growing costs. Bigtincan reported cash receipts of $12.2 million but cash operating payments of $15.8 million. This follows the addition of several bolt-on acquisitions.

    Pointerra Ltd (ASX: 3DP)

    The Pointerra share price has sunk 15% to 64 cents. This follows news that the 3D geospatial data technology company has signed an agreement to acquire US drone-based digital asset management business Airovant. Pointerra also released a sales update and revealed that its annual contract value (ACV) had increased 15% over the last three months to US$7.89 million. Some investors may have been expecting stronger growth.

    ResMed Inc (ASX: RMD)

    The ResMed share price is down 4.5% to $26.14 after its third quarter results fell short of expectations. For the three months ended 31 March, the sleep treatment medical device company reported revenue of US$768.8 million and an operating profit of US$223.4 million. This represents a 0.1% decline and 3% increase over the same period last year. However, it is worth noting that he prior corresponding period benefited greatly from strong COVID-19-related ventilator sales. Excluding these sales, ResMed would have grown its top line.

    Where to invest $1,000 right now

    When investing expert Scott Phillips has a stock tip, it can pay to listen. After all, the flagship Motley Fool Share Advisor newsletter he has run for more than eight years has provided thousands of paying members with stock picks that have doubled, tripled or even more.*

    Scott just revealed what he believes are the five best ASX stocks for investors to buy right now. These stocks are trading at dirt-cheap prices and Scott thinks they are great buys right now.

    *Returns as of February 15th 2021

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    James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. owns shares of and recommends BIGTINCAN FPO. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. owns shares of Pointerra Limited. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended BIGTINCAN FPO, Pointerra Limited, and ResMed Inc. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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  • Why has the Lynas (ASX:LCY) share price fallen 11% in April?

    Mining ASX share price on watch represented by miner making screen with hands

    The Lynas Rare Earths Ltd (ASX: LYC) share price has kept investors on their toes lately.

    Having spent most of this year trending generally upwards, the company’s shares have lost around 11% of their value in April. For comparison, at the time of writing, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) has gained around 3.5% over the course of the month.

    The Lynas share price started this month trading at $6.17. It reached its highest closing price for the month on 8 April, when it finished the day’s trade at $6.50.

    Currently, the Lynas share price is sitting at $5.50. So, what’s caused its poor performance lately?

    Let’s take a look at what the rare earth producer has been up to.

    Lynas’ April

    The Lynas share price spent the first week of April trending upwards after a particularly volatile March.

    We didn’t hear much out of the company until 20 April, when its quarterly activity report was released to the market.

    Within it, Lynas highlighted the growing demand for rare earth minerals for use in renewable energy and electric vehicle technology. Its production levels of Neodymium and Praseodymium were similar or greater than the previous quarter’s, and it received $110 million in sales revenues, partly due to a delay in cash collection from the prior quarter.

    While this all sounds positive, the report also noted the company’s subdued sales due to the COVID-19 pandemic’s impact on trade, as well as shipment delays caused by the Suez Canal blockage

    Further, the company reported that several Chinese rare earth producers, including the leading global rare earths supplier China Northern Rare Earth Ltd, are planning to increase their production. China Northern, which produces around 60% of China’s total rare earth supply, wants to double its production by 2024. China already has a small monopoly on rare earth production, with Lynas being one of only a few producers located outside of the country.   

    Despite Lynas dubbing the quarter’s results “strong”, after their release, the company’s share price retreated. On the day the results were announced, Lynas shares closed the session 8% lower than the day prior. Over the following days, the Lynas share price continued to fall.

    At the time, The Motley Fool Australia reported that the last time China increased its rare earth production, the Lynas share price fell by a whopping 90%.

    While circumstances are quite different in this instance, perhaps history has investors worried.

    Lynas share price snapshot

    Despite the woes felt by Lynas shareholders this month, the company’s share price is still performing well on the ASX overall.

    Currently, it’s up 31% year to date. It’s also up by a mammoth 219% over the last 12 months.

    The company has a market capitalisation of around $4.9 billion, with approximately 901 million shares outstanding.

    Where to invest $1,000 right now

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    Scott just revealed what he believes are the five best ASX stocks for investors to buy right now. These stocks are trading at dirt-cheap prices and Scott thinks they are great buys right now.

    *Returns as of February 15th 2021

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    Motley Fool contributor Brooke Cooper has no position in any of the stocks mentioned.

    The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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  • What happened to the Coles (ASX:COL) share price over April?

    supermarket asx shares represented by shopping trolley in supermarket aisle

    With the end of April firmly in sight, it’s an opportune time to review what’s happened with the Coles Group Ltd (ASX: COL) share price over the past month.

    Over the past 30 days to yesterday’s close, the Coles share price rose 2.31%. In comparison, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) rose 4.29% higher in the same period.

    Let’s take a closer look at what’s been impacting the Coles share price this month.

    The big news impacting the Coles share price

    The new price wars

    Earlier this month, Coles slashed the prices of hundreds of products in its supermarkets. The retailer dropped the cost of both generic and branded goods by anywhere from 5% – 35%. With grocers operating on relatively low margins, lowering prices could result in greater pressure on profit.

    It was reported that Coles decided to engage in price competition because of its larger store exposure in Victoria (which was the state with the longest COVID lockdowns in the country), and because of inferior online sales compared to Woolworths Group Ltd (ASX: WOW)

    Klarna/Flybuys Partnership

    Flybuys, a joint venture between Coles and Wesfarmers Ltd (ASX: WES) partnered with Swedish buy now, pay later (BNPL) provider Klarna this month. Klarna is partly owned by the Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA).

    Under the deal, Klarna users can trade their Klarna ‘vibe’ points for 3 Flybuys points each. Vibe points are only accrued after a product bought is fully repaid. Flybuys users who link their Klarna accounts to the loyalty program will also receive a bonus 1500 Flybuys points.

    Q3 sales update

    On Wednesday, Coles released its Q3 results for FY21. Revenue was down 5.1% on the prior corresponding period (pcp) but up 7.2% on Q3 of FY19. Sales totalled $8.8 billion for the quarter.

    Sales were down the pcp due to a massive surge in spending at retailers as the pandemic began and many consumers resorted to panic buying.

    The supermarket arm saw a 6.4% decline in comparable sales and a 6.1% decline in total sales on the pcp ($7.7 billion total sales). Liquor and Express, however, both saw growing sales in the quarter. The liquor business reported a 2.6% increase in comparable sales and a 2.1% increase in total sales ($759 million total sales). The Express operations saw sales increase 6.3% in comparable sales and jump 7.1% in total sales ($275 million total sales).

    Coles management noted consumer behaviour was normalising post-pandemic. These included Sunday trading becoming the busiest day again and improving sales in CBD stores and stores in major shopping centres.

    Coles share price snapshot

    The Coles share price currently trades at $16.37. Over the past 12 months, Coles shares are 5.6% higher but have dropped 11.5% since the start of 2021.

    Only yesterday, despite the drop in sales in Q3, Coles shares had a strong day, appreciating 3.34%. The rise is being attributed to optimistic broker ratings.

    Coles Group has a market capitalisation of $21.9 billion.

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    Scott just revealed what he believes are the five best ASX stocks for investors to buy right now. These stocks are trading at dirt-cheap prices and Scott thinks they are great buys right now.

    *Returns as of February 15th 2021

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    Motley Fool contributor Marc Sidarous has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of COLESGROUP DEF SET, Wesfarmers Limited, and Woolworths Limited. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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  • Brokers name 3 ASX shares to buy now

    asx buy

    Australia’s top brokers have been busy adjusting their estimates and recommendations once again. This has led to the release of a number of broker notes.

    Three broker buy ratings that have caught my eye are summarised below. Here’s why brokers think these ASX shares are in the buy zone:

    Fortescue Metals Group Limited (ASX: FMG)

    According to a note out of Ord Minnett, its analysts have retained their buy rating but trimmed their price target on this iron ore producer’s shares to $28.00. This follows the release of its third quarter update this week. While Fortescue’s C1 costs were higher than it was expecting, the broker notes that this is consistent with what other miners are experiencing. In addition, Fortescue fell short of its shipment expectations for the quarter. Nevertheless, Ord Minnett remains positive on the miner and sees a lot of value in its shares. The Fortescue share price is trading at $22.67 today.

    Nitro Software Ltd (ASX: NTO)

    A note out of Morgan Stanley reveals that its analysts have retained their overweight rating and $3.70 price target on this global document productivity software company’s shares. This follows the release of its first quarter update this week. While it notes that no dollar figures were provided, Morgan Stanley believes the company is tracking ahead of its annual recurring revenue (ARR) guidance after delivering growth of 66% during the quarter.  The Nitro share price is fetching $3.15 this afternoon.

    Woolworths Group Ltd (ASX: WOW)

    Analysts at Macquarie have retained their outperform rating and $44.50 price target on this retail conglomerate’ shares following its third quarter sales update. According to the note, the broker acknowledges that this quarterly result was hard to judge due to the prior period being impacted by COVID-19 panic buying. However, it believes Woolworths is performing better than Coles Group Ltd (ASX: COL) and has at least maintained its strong market share. It was also pleased to see that the Endeavour Drinks spin off is progressing well. The Woolworths share price is trading at $39.25 today.

    Where to invest $1,000 right now

    When investing expert Scott Phillips has a stock tip, it can pay to listen. After all, the flagship Motley Fool Share Advisor newsletter he has run for more than eight years has provided thousands of paying members with stock picks that have doubled, tripled or even more.*

    Scott just revealed what he believes are the five best ASX stocks for investors to buy right now. These stocks are trading at dirt-cheap prices and Scott thinks they are great buys right now.

    *Returns as of February 15th 2021

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    Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of COLESGROUP DEF SET and Woolworths Limited. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Nitro Software Limited. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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  • The Xero (ASX:XRO) share price is smashing the ASX 50 this month

    rising asx share price represented by happy woman dancing excitedly

    Here we are on the final day of April and the Xero Limited (ASX: XRO) share price is leaving the S&P/ASX 50 Index (ASX: XFL) in its dust. The company’s shares are up more than 12% this month against the index’s 3.5% gains.

    Xero shares are now worth a tidy $142.31 each, at the time of writing, and April’s gains have come without the company releasing a single price-sensitive market update the entire month. 

    Whilst it’s impossible to know exactly what’s driving positive investor sentiment towards Xero, let’s take a look at what’s been happening for the company…

    How has Xero been performing?

    As mentioned, we haven’t heard any earth-shattering news from the Aussie business and accounting software developer during April. In March, however, the company announced it was acquiring two companies, Planday and Tickstar, which will push the company outside of its usual market and into the workforce management space.

    The acquisition of both these companies was seen as a positive move by Goldman Sachs. This month, the major broker reiterated its buy rating on the company, setting its Xero share price target at $153.

    Goldman’s upsides on Xero made for pretty optimistic reading. It highlighted the company’s limited competition, which it believes supports pricing power. The broker also flagged Xero’s high level of digitisation and VAT compliance as well as increasing regulation supporting e-invoicing. 

    Xero is also aiming to expand into Scandinavia which, despite the region’s size, is a potentially lucrative, tech-mature market. Goldman also gave a nod to these plans, tipping a potential addressable market of more than 2 million subscribers for the fintech to target.

    The other possibility for all this optimism surrounding Xero shares is actually that they are simply recovering from previous losses. The company’s share price dropped a whopping 30% from its all-time high of almost $158 set in December to around $108 in early March. So, could the company’s recent gains just be a market correction…of a correction?

    April has also been a strong month for the S&P/ASX All Technology Index (ASX: XTX), with the index beating the ASX 50 by around 7%. 

    Xero share price snapshot

    The Xero share price has added almost as much value in the past 12 months as it did in the prior 10 years. But those dramatic losses between January and March this year (a $40 loss in two months) show Xero shares can still be as volatile as they come.

    Where to invest $1,000 right now

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    Scott just revealed what he believes are the five best ASX stocks for investors to buy right now. These stocks are trading at dirt-cheap prices and Scott thinks they are great buys right now.

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    Lucas Radbourne-Pugh has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. owns shares of Xero. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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  • Why the Ether price gains are outpacing Bitcoin’s price rise

    A young man pointing up looking amazed, indicating a surging share price movement for an ASX company

    The Ether price gains of late haven’t gotten nearly the amount of media attention as the Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) price.

    But with the Ether price (or Ethereum if you prefer) hitting new record highs again today, you can expect to hear more about the world’s second largest cryptocurrency.

    Ether price versus the Bitcoin price

    The Ether price at the time of writing is US$2,763 (AU$3,542), according to data from CoinDesk. That’s down a tad from the $2,800 it reached earlier today, but still up 1.1% over the past 24 hours.

    Admittedly, in the fast-moving world of cryptocurrencies, that’s not a huge price gain. But just 12 months ago Ether was trading for a mere US$212. Meaning anyone who bought Ether this time last year is sitting on a 1,203% gain.

    At the current price, this gives Ether a market cap of US$319.6 billion. And Ether is changing virtual hands at a significant rate, with more than US$38.9 billion in transaction over the past 24 hours.

    So how does this compare to Bitcoin?

    Well, Bitcoin remains the world’s largest digital asset. At the current price of US$53,515, Bitcoin has a market cap of US$1.0 trillion.

    The Bitcoin price is down 2.2% over the past 24 hours, with US$48.3 billion of Bitcoin transacted in that time.

    Over the past 12 months, Bitcoin has gained 504%.

    What’s driving crypto investors’ interest in Ether?

    Ether’s blockchain can be used to facilitate financial transactions.

    As Reuters reports, the record Ether price this week appears to be linked to “the European Investment Bank’s plans to launch a ‘digital bond’ sale on the ethereum blockchain network“.

    Anonymous sources, first reported by Bloomberg, revealed that “the EIB plans to issue a two-year 100-million euro digital bond, with the sale to be led by Goldman Sachs, Banco Santander, and Societe Generale”.

    Danny Kim is the head of revenue at cryptocurrency broker SFOX. He concurred that news of the European Investment Bank’s digital bond sale had “triggered a bullish institutional use case for ethereum”.

    Kim also pointed to a lower supply for the run-up to record high ether price:

    The amount of ethereum sitting on exchanges continues to drop lower and has been the lowest in the past year. With less supply on exchange available, there’s less likely a chance of a major sell-off.

    Whether you’re considering investing in Bitcoin, Ether or even Dogecoin, remember that crypto prices are notoriously volatile.

    While the Ether price is currently sitting at record levels, no one can accurately predict where it’s heading next.

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    Scott just revealed what he believes are the five best ASX stocks for investors to buy right now. These stocks are trading at dirt-cheap prices and Scott thinks they are great buys right now.

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    Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. owns shares of and recommends Bitcoin. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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  • The Fortescue (ASX:FMG) share price has boosted 13% this month

    Female miner and male miner stand in open mine pit surveying the area

    The Fortescue Metals Group Limited (ASX: FMG) share price has been a sensational performer in April among the ASX 50 shares. It’s currently the second-highest gainer this month, following only — you guessed it — Afterpay Ltd (ASX: APT).

    At the time of writing, Fortescue shares are up 13.53% in April to $22.70, quadrupling the broader ASX 50’s return after a busy month for the mining giant.

    But there’s a little more to the movements than meets the eye. Let’s take a look at the hold-on-to-your-pants month of a Fortescue investor.

    Fortescue’s April highs and lows

    The Fortescue share price has benefitted from record global iron-ore prices, with rivals BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) and Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO) also notching up bumper 12 month periods.

    This month has been no different, and continued hydraulics under the commodity’s value in mid-April once again led to solid gains.

    Fortescue often chews up a few more news bites than its rivals, however, largely due to its ambitious climate targets. It wants to be carbon neutral by 2030, which will encompass a huge reduction from the millions of tonnes of greenhouse gas it currently emits every year.

    Fortescue chair Andrew Forrest is becoming the spearhead of Australia’s business-led fight against climate change, and the company is taking a proactive approach in shifting towards the production of green hydrogen.

    This month alone, Forrest said Australia should become “the Middle East” of hydrogen production, mere days after his company met with the Jordanian government to discuss investment in their hydrogen production facilities. He also called fossil fuels “the most dangerous industry in the world”. 

    But despite the solid gains, not everything is rosy in term of outlook for the Fortescue share price long-term. UBS has called time on the iron-ore boom (admittedly, prices have kept rising since then).

    Moody’s noted that Fortescue’s market capitalisation fell by a whopping 17% between February and March alone, and Goldman Sachs has actively downgraded Fortescue to a sell rating, noting its earnings-per-share is well below BHP and Rio.

    Fortescue share price snapshot

    It’s also worth noting that the Fortescue share price is the only of the big three miners to have a negative return in 2021 so far, still down 4% despite this month’s gains.

    However, those shares have still increased in value by 88% over the past 12 months. That’s beaten the basic materials sector by 47% and the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) by 60%. 

    Where to invest $1,000 right now

    When investing expert Scott Phillips has a stock tip, it can pay to listen. After all, the flagship Motley Fool Share Advisor newsletter he has run for more than eight years has provided thousands of paying members with stock picks that have doubled, tripled or even more.*

    Scott just revealed what he believes are the five best ASX stocks for investors to buy right now. These stocks are trading at dirt-cheap prices and Scott thinks they are great buys right now.

    *Returns as of February 15th 2021

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    Motley Fool contributor Lucas Radbourne-Pugh has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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  • Warning! The Buffett indicator is redder than ever

    Investor Warren Buffett

    Investors who have been around the proverbial block a few times might remember ‘the Buffett indicator’. This is a market metric that has been made famous by the great investor Warren Buffett – hence the name. 

    It hasn’t been thrown around too much over the past few years. Many investors even think it’s outdated, or doesn’t truly reflect the mechanics of the modern stock market. We should all hope that they are right because the Buffett indicator has never looked so dire for future investing returns.

    But let’s rewind. What exactly is the Buffett indicator?

    The Buffett indicator is a simple metric that measures the market capitalisation of the entire US stock market against the gross national product (GNP) of the US economy. Put simply, it measures how values shares are compared with the broader economy. 

    The Berkshire Hathaway way

    Here’s how Buffett explained it back in 1999:

    [It] shows the market value of all publicly traded securities as a percentage of the country’s business–that is, as a percentage of GNP. The ratio has certain limitations in telling you what you need to know. Still, it is probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment. And as you can see, nearly two years ago the ratio rose to an unprecedented level. That should have been a very strong warning signal.

    For investors to gain wealth at a rate that exceeds the growth of U.S. business, the percentage relationship line on the chart must keep going up and up. If GNP is going to grow 5% a year and you want market values to go up 10%, then you need to have the line go straight off the top of the chart. That won’t happen.

    For me, the message of that chart is this: If the percentage relationship falls to the 70% or 80% area, buying stocks is likely to work very well for you. If the ratio approaches 200%–as it did in 1999 and a part of 2000–you are playing with fire. As you can see, the ratio was recently 133%.

    So basically Buffett is saying that stock markets should grow in line with US GNP over time. If they exceed GNP, then the market is overvalued (like it turned out to be in 2000). If they undershoot GNP, the market is undervalued. Even though Buffett said that this method “has limitations”, he also thought that “it is probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment”. Well, at least he did in 1999. Buffett hasn’t said too much on it since this interview.

    How is the Buffett indicator looking today?

    As implied earlier, the Buffett indicator today does not paint a rosy picture. According to currentmarketvaluation.com, US GNP is standing at US$21.9 trillion, as of 22 April. But the value of the US markets is sitting at US$51.3 trillion. That means that the Buffett indicator is flashing red at 234% – meaning that US stocks are worth 234% more than the country’s GNP. That’s the highest the indicator has ever been, including where it was at the peak of the dot-com bubble back in the early 2000s (when Buffett made the above remarks).

    Of course, many investors aren’t too worried. There’s a lot that has changed since 1999 when Buffett outlined his position on this indicator. Back then, the US’s largest companies were stocks like Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE: XOM) and General Electric Company (NYSE: GE). Now they are companies like Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN), and Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ: GOOG)(NASDAQ: GOOGL). And US companies have far more global reach than they used to. Software-as-a-Service business models have made them more profitable than ever. And let’s not forget that interest rates have never been as low as they are today. That is certainly playing a role in the current market valuations.

    But who knows, maybe we’ll be looking back in a decade and think ‘how did no one see the dangers of the Buffett indicator’? Or maybe everyone will have forgotten this rather unique ratio by then. Time will tell!

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    John Mackey, CEO of Whole Foods Market, an Amazon subsidiary, is a member of The Motley Fool’s board of directors. Suzanne Frey, an executive at Alphabet, is a member of The Motley Fool’s board of directors. Sebastian Bowen owns shares of Alphabet (A shares). The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. owns shares of and recommends Alphabet (A shares), Alphabet (C shares), and Amazon and recommends the following options: long January 2022 $1920 calls on Amazon and short January 2022 $1940 calls on Amazon. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Alphabet (A shares), Alphabet (C shares), and Amazon. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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  • Centuria (ASX:CIP) share price rises as a new development announced

    asx shares for housing boom represented by row of miniature white paper houses with one red house

    Centuria Industrial REIT (ASX: CIP) shares are gaining today on the back of a new property purchase. At the time of writing, the Centuria share price is $3.49, up 0.87% on yesterday’s close.

    Let’s take a closer look at the news released by the industrial real estate investment trust this morning.

    New industrial estate

    Centuria has acquired an 8-hectare parcel of land in Dandenong South, near Melbourne, on which it plans to build a six-asset industrial estate.

    The land has cost Centuria $26.3 million and the company will be spending another $62.5 million to build on it. Centuria estimates the end value of the estate will be $88.8 million. The project is expected to be practically completed by 2022 and will be funded through the company’s existing debt facilities.  

    The finished product will be made up of units with areas from around 3,400 square meters to around 13,600 square metres. They will cater to a range of industrial tenants. The development’s total gross lettable area will be around 40,400 square metres.

    Centuria hopes that, on completion, the development will achieve a ‘Design & As Built’ five-star green rating from the Green Building Council of Australia. It will incorporate sustainable features such as solar panels, recycled water, sustainable and recycled building materials and native vegetation.

    According to Centuria, vacancy levels in the industrial market of the Melbourne suburb are around 1%.  

    The estate will be built in partnership with commercial and industrial property developer Cadence Property Group. It will be constructed by Texco Construction.

    The new property adds to the company’s 7 existing assets in southeast Melbourne. The purchase has increased Centuria’s portfolio to 63 assets which, when combined, will be valued at $2.7 billion on completion.

    Commentary from management

    Centuria’s fund manager Jesse Curtis commented that the acquisition is an opportunity to secure an asset in a market where industrial properties are rare: 

    The asset builds [Centuria’s] value-add pipeline and delivers brand new industrial product to the portfolio creating further value for unitholders…

    The site is set to benefit from the newly announced Dandenong South Inland Port, enabling direct containerised freight from the port of Melbourne which is expected aid in leasing demand.

    Centuria share price snapshot

    The Centuria Industrial REIT share price is having a good run on the ASX as of late.

    Currently, it’s up 12% year to date. It’s also up 32% over the last 12 months.

    The company has a market capitalisation of around $1.9 billion, with approximately 551 million shares outstanding.

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    Motley Fool contributor Brooke Cooper has no position in any of the stocks mentioned.

    The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

    The post Centuria (ASX:CIP) share price rises as a new development announced appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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