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After a huge 2020, growth shares have had a bit of a rest this year.

Technology, specifically, led the way in massive market gains in 2020 after the March COVID-19 trough. The S&P ASX All Technology Index (ASX: XTX) gained a whopping 125% from 20 March to the end of the year.

But this year has been a different story, with growth and tech shares falling out of favour.

The ASX All Tech index remains flat, increasing just 0.9% since New Year’s Day.

The rotation to value stocks has been triggered by a fear that inflation would rise as the world recovers from the pandemic. When inflation rises, interest rates could rise. 

And that’s bad news for high-growth stocks, according to Platinum Asset Management chief executive Andrew Clifford.

“Many high-growth stocks have seen their share prices fall considerably from their recent highs, with bellwether growth stocks such as Tesla Inc (NASDAQ: TSLA) down 27% from its highs, Zoom Video Communications Inc (NASDAQ: ZM) down 45%, and Afterpay Ltd (ASX: APT) down 35%,” he said in an update to investors.

“Theoretically, rising interest rates have a much greater impact on the valuation of high-growth companies than their more pedestrian counterparts. As such, it is not surprising to see these stocks most impacted by recent moves in bond yields and concerns about inflation.”

Is the slowdown in growth shares temporary or chronic?

Multiple experts have predicted that the aversion to growth stocks is temporary, and the market would soon return to the 2020 darlings.

T Rowe Price Group Inc (NASDAQ: TROW)’s investment committee for its Australian arm last month already started shifting its allocation from value to growth.

Nucleus Wealth head of investments Damien Klassen also stated last month that pre-COVID deflationary forces would reassert themselves soon.

Clifford disagrees. He has grave fears for growth stocks that so many people ploughed their money into last year.

“For many (but not all) of the favourites of 2020, we would not be surprised to see them fall another 50% to 90% before the bear market in these stocks is over,” he said.

“If our concerns regarding long-term interest rates come to fruition, this will be a dangerous place to be invested.”

His bearish view was based on his forecast that interest rate rises would be irresistible.

“It is hard to see how we can avoid a strong cyclical rise in inflation,” he told investors.

“It is an environment where there is likely to be ongoing upward pressure on long-term interest rates.”

And history could serve as an example.

“We only need to look to the end of the tech bubble in 2000 to 2001 for an indication of how this may play out,” Clifford said.

“The much-loved ‘new world’ tech stocks collapsed in a savage bear market, while the out-of-favour ‘old world’ stocks rallied strongly.”

More reading

• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Thursday
• Aussie investors snapped up Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN) shares last week
• Top brokers name 3 ASX shares to buy today
• Leading brokers give their verdict on the Afterpay (ASX:APT) share price
• Latitude (ASX:LFS) makes a splash on its ASX debut

Tony Yoo owns shares of AFTERPAY T FPO. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. owns shares of and recommends Tesla and Zoom Video Communications. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of AFTERPAY T FPO. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Zoom Video Communications. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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The BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) share price was out of form on Wednesday following the release of its third quarter update.

The mining giant’s shares fell 0.5% to $47.21.

How did BHP perform?

For the three months ended 31 March, BHP delivered record production at Western Australia Iron Ore (WAIO) and record average concentrator throughput at its Escondida copper mine.

This led to the miner holding firm with its FY 2021 production guidance for petroleum and iron ore and lifting its copper production guidance.

However, one area not performing in line with expectations is its metallurgical coal business. BHP has reduced its guidance due to poor weather conditions.

Is the BHP share price in the buy zone following its update?

Analysts at Goldman Sachs were pleased with BHP’s performance during the third quarter. As a result, the broker has retained its buy rating and lifted its price target to $54.20.

Based on the current BHP share price, this implies potential upside of almost 15% over the next 12 months.

And with Goldman Sachs forecasting fully franked dividend yields of 6.6% and 6.7%, respectively, over the next two years, this potential return stretches to over 21.5%.

What did Goldman say?

Goldman commented: “BHP reported better than expected oil, met coal, copper and iron ore production for the March Q (vs. GSe). Some positive adjustments have been made to FY21 production guidance, most of which we already capture, with Escondida copper production upgraded (and cost guidance lowered), and now expected to be flat in FY22 (previously guided down), iron ore and oil to be at the upper end of the FY21 range, but coal (met and thermal) downgraded (to in-line with GSe) on wet weather and weak demand, and other copper (Spence ramp-up) trimmed slightly.”

“We retain our Buy rating on BHP on […] strong earnings growth and FCF: We forecast a c. 50% increase in EBITDA and a doubling of FCF in FY21 (equating to c. 10% FCF yield), driven by our positive view on met coal, copper and oil prices,” it added.

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• Why Rio Tinto (ASX:RIO) and BHP (ASX:BHP) look set for another profit upgrade
• Fortescue share price falls as Twiggy calls fossil fuels ‘most dangerous industry in the world’
• BHP (ASX:BHP) share price drops despite 10-year iron ore highs
• ASX lithium shares are soaring. Is it too late to jump onboard?

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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This article was originally published on Fool.com. All figures quoted in US dollars unless otherwise stated.

This article was originally published on Fool.com. All figures quoted in US dollars unless otherwise stated.

Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX) first-quarter earnings show what happens when there isn’t a global pandemic to artificially boost subscriber totals, and that has one Wall Street analyst seeing the video streaming giant’s stock cratering.

Although Wedbush analyst Michael Pachter actually raised his price target on Netflix by $2 per share to $342, it’s still 38% below where the stock closed the day before. However, he maintained his underperform rating on the stock, which is the equivalent of a sell.

It’s not as though Netflix didn’t experience any growth. It added 4 million new subscribers during the quarter, reaching 207.6 million, and revenue was up 24% year over year. But the numbers underwhelmed the market because management had forecast 6 million additions, though the top-line numbers were roughly in-line with guidance.

Netflix guidance for next quarter is even more dismal, however, as it expects to add just 1 million new accounts.

Pachter, who has been pretty much bearish on Netlfix shares for over a decade, told investors in a note that the streamer has a “considerable first-mover advantage.” But because it’s reaching a saturation point in the U.S., that advantage won’t carry it very far anymore. 

If Netflix wants to keep growing, it will have to do so overseas. While that offers a compelling opportunity, it’s balanced by the costs of content acquisition that are needed to keep acquiring new members. 

The analyst believes investors should only expect to see Netflix producing subscriber growth rates in the high single digits.

This article was originally published on Fool.com. All figures quoted in US dollars unless otherwise stated.

More reading

• Netflix misses sub addition target, shares crash
• Earnings: 2 hot stocks to watch this week
• Netflix is losing market share, but this is the actual risk to shareholders
• Netflix just fixed its only disadvantage in streaming
• Love tech shares? This ASX ETF is a great buy today

Rich Duprey has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. owns shares of and recommends Netflix. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Netflix. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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This article was originally published on Fool.com. All figures quoted in US dollars unless otherwise stated.

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A fund manager has named 2 ASX shares that are “unloved” by the market but have the makings for long-term outperformance.

According to Prime Value Asset Management portfolio manager Richard Ivers, his fund’s best investments are those that are misunderstood by a market that can be excessively focused on short-term fortunes.

“We think of it like planting a seed,” he posted on Livewire this week.

“We expect that investment to sprout and grow over time. However, the timing of this ‘sprouting’ is hard to predict as it is dependent on others in the market also recognising value in the underlying asset and bidding up the stock price to reflect it.” 

This dependency on other investors to ‘wake up’ means investment performance will fluctuate over time.

“In some periods, many seeds will be sprouting at once, while at others we are planting many seeds but few are sprouting,” said Ivers.

“Consequently, investment performance should be judged over the long term – not monthly or quarterly.”

Here are 2 ASX shares Ivers’ fund currently holds. The first recently sprouted, while the second is just about to:

Mortgage Choice Limited (ASX: MOC)

A prime example of a sleeper suddenly sprouting was in March when this home loan broking business received a takeover proposal from REA Group Limited (ASX: REA).

Mortgage Choice shares gained 61% that day. 

“This followed from a weak February when the stock was -13% on a reasonable but underwhelming profit result,” said Ivers.

“Clearly, a stock price can vary significantly from day to day while the underlying value moves more slowly. This creates opportunities for longer-term investors.”

The Mortgage Choice business has a high level of recurring revenue and “very strong cash flow“, according to Ivers.

“Prior to the bid, it was yielding 7% fully franked and growing its cash earnings.”

Mortgage Choice shares were flat on Wednesday afternoon, trading at $1.92. 

United Malt Group Ltd (ASX: UMG)

United Malt is the world’s 4th largest provider of malted barley, which is an ingredient used for beer and whiskey production.

Ivers said it had provided “a moderate return” since his fund’s purchase, but has certainly underperformed compared to the rest of the portfolio.

“However, we believe the outlook has improved. That is, UMG appears to be a seed that has not yet sprouted.”

With 60% of its revenue coming from the United States, the vaccination rollout there should see alcohol consumption increase as the economy reopens.

“Yet the stock is well below its high of late 2020 and valuation looks appealing.”

This unfulfilled potential makes it unique compared to other COVID-recovery ASX stocks.

“[United Malt] contrasts with travel stocks, many of which are above their pre-COVID high and exposed to a slower Australian vaccination program,” said Ivers.

“Further, UMG benefits from the longer-term structural growth of craft beer and its demerger from Graincorp Ltd (ASX: GNC), which will deliver efficiencies and higher return on capital. Over time we expect the underlying value to be reflected in the stock price.”

United Malt shares were down 0.49% on Wednesday afternoon, trading at $4.06. 

More reading

• Why the REA (ASX:REA) share price is surging in April
• What brokers think of REA (ASX:REA) share price following acquisition
• ASX 200 dips lower, Webjet drops, REA bids for Mortgage Choice
• ASX 200 down 0.1%: Computershare raises $500m, REA Group announces acquisition
• Mortgage Choice (ASX:MOC) share price rockets 61% on REA takeover

Motley Fool contributor Tony Yoo has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended REA Group Limited. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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It certainly has been a disappointing week for the Challenger Ltd (ASX: CGF) share price.

As of yesterday’s close, the annuities company’s shares were down 21% week to date.

Why is the Challenger share price crashing this week?

Investors have been heading to the exits in their droves this week following the release of its third quarter update.

That update revealed that Challenger’s assets under management rose 8% for the quarter and now exceed $100 billion. This means it is now Australia’s third largest active asset manager.

While this was positive, an update on its guidance offset the good news and weighed heavily on the Challenger share price.

Although Challenger is on target to achieve its full year normalised net profit before tax guidance for FY 2021, it will only be the bottom of its wide range of $390 million to $440 million.

Management revealed that this has been driven by a sharp decline in credit spreads over the year, which were not fully reflected in customer pricing.

Is this a buying opportunity?

One broker that isn’t rushing to invest is Goldman Sachs. In response to the update, the broker has retained its neutral rating and cut its price target to $5.67. This compares to the current Challenger share price of $5.25.

Goldman said: “We expect margin pressure to emerge today has been a mix of both lower credit spreads, some lag in CGF’s pricing response plus the eventual impact from elevated growth over the past few periods in shorter duration / lower margin institutional product.”

The broker notes that Challenger is responding to this by significantly adjusting annuity pricing. However, it fears this could weigh on sales.

It explained: “While recent pricing initiatives should help to restore margin into FY22, this should theoretically weigh on sales growth, and ultimately relative to our estimates, issues raised in today’s update have more than offset the expected margin uplift associated with redeploying excess cash into credit.”

Though, with the Challenger share price falling heavily this week, the broker does appear to believe value is emerging. It may just need to fall a bit further before Goldman changes its stance.

“We downgrade FY21-FY23E normalised NPAT by -7.3%/-8.4%/-8.2%. As a result our 12m TP moves to A$5.67 and we note CGF is now trading at 1.0x book value, which relative to our forecast 8.6% normalised ROE in FY22 suggests it is trading slightly cheap relative to local peers. We maintain our Neutral rating,” it concluded.

More reading

• Why Challenger, Nuix, Splitit, & Temple & Webster are sinking
• ASX 200 drops, Challenger plummets, Lynas falls
• Why Altium, Challenger, Lynas, & Sydney Airport shares are sinking
• ASX 200 down 0.4%: Afterpay delivers stellar Q3 growth, Rio Tinto Q1 update
• Challenger (ASX:CGF) share price sinks 10% following third quarter update

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of and has recommended Challenger Limited. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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A fund manager has revealed that Telstra Corporation Ltd (ASX: TLS) is his team’s biggest current holding.

According to Pengana Capital chief investment officer Rhett Kessler, businesses with “hard assets” would survive best in the face of rising inflation and interest rates.

“We have it as just under 8% of our portfolio,” he told a Pengana investor webinar.

“When you buy Telstra shares, you’re buying the best mobile phone network in the country. And you’re buying a really nice inflation-protection bond from the government.”

Kessler praised the telco’s management for its ability to make painful short-term decisions for the good of its longer-term outlook.

“We think they’ve done a pretty good job, in the face of a very hostile press — and at times becoming the battleground in the political battles between Liberal and Labor parties.”

Telstra charges premium pricing but has low costs

Kessler is attracted to how Telstra can charge more than its rivals, yet has a low cost base due to its economies of scale and market leader role in new technologies like 5G.

“Everyone says Telstra is terrible at everything… But I will put to you that in the last 15 to 20 years they have successfully maintained their 25% premium on pricing,” he said.

“And they are, by far, the lowest-cost producer for [each] gig of data, which must mean they have decent engineers and marketing people.”

Data is the new oxygen

Once a luxury, internet connectivity has now evolved into a utility for Australian homes.

This makes Telstra resistant to economic ups and downs, according to Kessler.

“If any of you have kids, try to remove wi-fi or data from your home — it has become the new oxygen,” he said.

“We think that business is certainly [now] a toilet paper or toothpaste-type business.”

The “material lead” in Telstra’s 5G mobile network over its rivals is a huge advantage, according to the veteran investor.

As is the income coming in from NBN Co, which pays a fee to use Telstra’s old infrastructure.

Telstra’s chunky dividend yield

The Telstra share price closed 0.44% lower on Wednesday, trading at $3.375. It has been as low as $2.66 in the past year.

The Pengana Australian Equities Fund was lucky enough to purchase Telstra shares cheaper than the current level.

Kessler said this meant it currently provides an after-tax cash earnings yield of 7.2%, rising “comfortably” to 9% over the next 3 or 4 years.

“A prospective dividend yield of 5% is certainly not to be sneezed at.”

More reading

• Can 5G boost the Telstra (ASX:TLS) share price?
• 2 ASX dividend shares with fully franked yields of almost 5%
• Why the Telstra (ASX:TLS) share price is a buy today
• ASX 200 Weekly Wrap: ASX 200 hits new post-COVID high
• Beat low interest rates with these top ASX dividend shares

Motley Fool contributor Tony Yoo has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of and has recommended Telstra Limited. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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The Lark Distilling Co Ltd (ASX: LRK) share price will be in focus this morning following the release of its quarterly update.

At yesterday’s market close, the whisky producer’s shares finished the day at $2.40

How did Lark perform?

Investors could push Lark shares higher today after the company reported robust growth.

For the quarter ending 31 March (Q3 FY21), Lark recorded gross sales of close to $4 million. This reflects a 175% year-on-year increase, in which Q3 FY20 attained a $1.45 million result.

Net sales also soared to $3.1 million for the period, compared to $1.2 million achieved this time last year.

Gross profit came to $2.2 million for Q3 FY21, a stark jump of 210% from the $735,901 reached in the prior comparable period.

Lark attributed its sales performance to the continued growth of its limited release program. Its Legacy and Para100 products are considered rare and extremely expensive, retailing for $1,950 and $1,000 per bottle, respectively.

In addition, the company’s development of key accounts also led to a surge in sales volumes. Online revenue maintained its upwards trajectory, and the hospitality segment saw a recovery as domestic tourism resumes.

Net operating cash outflow for the 3 months totalled $505,000. While this is lower than previous periods, Lark noted that the rise in cash inflows from customers offset operating costs.

The company declared a cash balance of $11.6 million with $5 million in loan facilities. At the current spending rate, this gives Lark much headroom to pursue investment activities (23 quarters).

Lark share price snapshot

Formerly known as Australian Whiskey Holdings Limited, Lark is involved in the Australian craft distilling industry. The company produces whiskey and liqueurs in Hobart, Tasmania.

In the past 12 months, the Lark share price has gone from strength to strength, gaining 200%. Year-to-date performance sits above 60% followed by a recent surge in March. It’s worth noting that the company’s shares hit an all-time high of $2.64 last week and are within sight of breaking that milestone.

On valuation metrics, Lark commands a market capitalisation of roughly $151 million, with 63 million shares outstanding.

More reading

• Brokers think these 2 surging ASX shares can go higher

Motley Fool contributor Aaron Teboneras has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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The AMP Ltd (ASX: AMP) share price will be one to watch this morning.

This follows the release of the financial services company’s first quarter update.

What did AMP report?

According to the release, for the three months ended 31 March, AMP recorded a $1.6 billion increase in Australian wealth management (AWM) assets under management (AUM) to $125.7 billion.

This was driven by improved investment markets, which offset AWM net cash outflows of $1.5 billion. Though, it is worth noting that $448 million of these outflows relate to regular pension payments to clients.

The AMP Bank business recorded a $0.2 billion increase in its total loan book to $20.8 billion. This was driven by growth in owner-occupied loans.

Things weren’t quite as positive for its AMP Capital business. AMP Capital’s AUM fell 1.7% to $186.5 billion during the quarter. This reflects net cash outflows from public markets, the sale of the Global Companies capability, and its share of listed NZ REIT Precinct Properties New Zealand Limited.

AMP Capital also recorded external net cash outflows of $1.3 billion during the quarter. This was driven primarily by fixed income outflows, as well as planned divestments of assets in infrastructure equity closed-end funds. Management notes that the divestments, reflected in cash outflows, delivered strong performance outcomes for clients.

Management commentary

AMP’s Chief Executive, Francesco De Ferrari, was pleased with the quarter.

He said: “Business performance remained resilient during the first quarter as we continued to make progress on delivery of our transformation strategy to become a simpler, client-led business.”

“In Australian wealth management our cashflows are showing underlying signs of improvement, with a reduction in outflows from corporate super mandates and a reduced impact from Protecting Your Super legislation. The increase to our assets under management in our wealth management business reflects continued improvement in investment markets in Q1. We supported clients through the period with A$448 million in pension payments, which are reflected in cash outflows.”

Looking ahead, Mr De Ferrari appears optimistic on the future.

He commented: “We are accelerating change within AMP, having made strong progress on addressing our legacy issues, including our client remediation program, which is close to 90 per cent complete. We remain focused on delivering critical priorities to progress our transformation over the next quarter and continue positioning the business for future growth.”

Where next for the AMP share price?

The AMP share price is down a disappointing 25% this year. Whether this update will be enough to get it heading higher again, time will tell.

One broker that isn’t overly positive is Ord Minnett. On Wednesday, the broker put a hold rating and $1.35 price target on its shares.

More reading

• AMP (ASX:AMP) share price hits new 52-week low
• ASX 200 Weekly Wrap: ASX sees 7,000 points once more
• These were the worst performing ASX 200 shares last week
• 2 ASX sectors where dividend shares will go backwards this year
• ASX 200 rises, Webjet sinks, Boral climbs

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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The PointsBet Holdings Ltd (ASX: PBH) share price has been on a wild ride in 2021.

Although the sports betting company’s shares are up a decent 7% so far this year, they are trading well below their 2021 highs.

In fact, at $12.68, the PointsBet share price is currently trading 30% lower than its February-high of $18.13.

Is this a buying opportunity for investors?

One leading broker that believes the recent weakness in the PointsBet share price is a buying opportunity is Goldman Sachs.

According to a note out of the investment bank this morning, its analysts have retained their $17.50 price target.

This price target implies potential upside of 38% for its shares over the next 12 months.

Why does Goldman believe the PointsBet share price can surge higher?

There a number of reasons that Goldman is positive on PointsBet. One of those is its potential to win a decent slice of a very lucrative US market.

Commenting on its ability to compete in the US market, Goldman said: “We believe PBH can and certainly see scope for it to drive a niche share of the burgeoning US market over the medium to long term and see no reason why it cannot achieve ~10% share of states it operates, particularly given it has already broadly delivered on that (>10% share of handle in NJ).”

Though, it has warned investors not to expect its share of the market to happen overnight.

The broker explained: “To this end we have also been reminding investors that PBH’s share in new states will likely be softer than peers such as the DFS [daily fantasy sports] operators given i) lack of initial advantage given it does not have a DFS database to convert, ii) need to build brand awareness, and iii) thus far no iGaming offering. As we have seen in states it has market access and operational in, over time, PBH’s share rises which we attribute to its strong product offering and the dissipating impacts from peers DFS database.”

Overall, Goldman Sachs believes PointsBet is well-placed for growth and is forecasting a >90% revenue compound annual growth rate over the next three years.

More reading

• Why the Pointsbet (ASX: PBH) share price is in focus
• Is the PointsBet (ASX:PBH) share price back on track after this announcement?
• Why the PointsBet (ASX:PBH) share price shot up 7% today
• Why the PointsBet (ASX:PBH) share price was suddenly sold off in March 
• Why Aristocrat Leisure, Opthea, PointsBet, & Spirit are storming higher:

James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. owns shares of and recommends Pointsbet Holdings Ltd. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Pointsbet Holdings Ltd. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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More reading

• Why the PointsBet (ASX:PBH) share price can rocket higher
• 3 under the radar ASX small cap shares to watch closely
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• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Thursday
• 2 rapidly growing small cap ASX shares to watch

Suzanne Frey, an executive at Alphabet, is a member of The Motley Fool’s board of directors. Kate O’Brien owns shares of Apple and Rio Tinto Ltd. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. owns shares of and recommends Alphabet (A shares), Alphabet (C shares), and Apple. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Alphabet (A shares), Alphabet (C shares), and Apple. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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