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If you’re looking for big dividends, then you will be hard-pressed to find anything larger than what could be on offer with New Hope Corporation Limited (ASX: NHC) shares.

According to a recent note out of Morgans, its analysts are expecting the ASX 200 coal miner to provide investors with double-digit dividend yields through to at least FY 2025.

What is Morgans saying about this ASX 200 share?

The note reveals that Morgans has an add rating and $6.35 price target on the coal miner’s shares. Based on the current New Hope share price of $5.46, this implies potential upside of 16.3% for investors over the next 12 months.

While the ASX 200 company’s recent half-year results were a touch softer than Morgans was expecting, the broker remains very positive on the investment opportunity here.

Particularly given its belief that “NHC’s Bengalla expansion (ongoing) and Acland ramp-up (from late 2023) are material cashflow contributors which look under-recognised by the market.”

In addition, the broker has “confidence that NHC won’t over-reach into M&A” and “the eventual return of surplus capital to shareholders is more likely than a large acquisition.”

Speaking of which, Morgans is forecasting some very big dividend yields in the coming years.

Big dividends are coming

The note reveals that Morgans is expecting New Hope to pay a fully franked $1.00 per share dividend in FY 2023, then $0.90 per share in FY 2024, and finally $0.70 per share in FY 2025.

Based on where this ASX 200 share is currently trading, this will mean huge yields of 18.3%, 16.5%, and 12.8%, respectively.

To put this into context, a $20,000 investment would provide income investors with dividends of $3,660, $3,300, and then $2,560, respectively.

That’s almost $10,000 in dividends in just three years from a $20,000 investment. No wonder Morgans is bullish!

The post Passive income: Broker says buy this ASX 200 share for an 18% dividend yield appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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More reading

• 3 dividend stocks with the biggest ASX 200 yields. Time to buy?
• How I’d invest $20k in ASX 200 shares to earn a second income of $140 a month
• BHP share price dips as coal mines catch attention
• Top brokers name 3 ASX shares to buy next week
• Why is the New Hope share price up 9% this week?

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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Two darlings of the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) have plummeted in the past month. Is it time to go bargain shopping?

That’s the question posed to Shaw and Partners portfolio manager James Gerrish about Ramsay Health Care Ltd (ASX: RHC) and IDP Education Ltd (ASX: IEL).

The stocks, which have been in favour with many professional investors in recent times, have fallen 3.7% and 6.1% respectively over the last month.

According to Gerrish, the instability in the global banking sector over the past fortnight has caused “some panic across financial markets”.

“Indeed [this has] led to some increased volatility on both the stock and sector level,” he said in a Market Matters Q&A.

So are either of these a “buy the dip” candidate?

Elective surgery or international students?

Many experts have pointed out the continuing post-pandemic recovery in elective surgery as a tailwind for private hospital operator Ramsay Health.

Wilsons equity strategist Rob Crookston last week rated the stock as one of his top “defensive growth” buys.

“Wilsons healthcare analysts forecast an earnings per share CAGR of 36% (versus consensus of 26%) between FY23E and FY25E, driven by a recovery in surgeries, strong underlying utilisation trends, raised prices for payers, dwindling COVID costs, and continued brownfield activity.”

As such, Gerrish thinks Ramsay is certainly a buy-the-dip temptation.

“We like Ramsay Health into recent weakness around the $63 to $64 area,” he said.

“It’s not on our hitlist yet, but at current levels it’s certainly being watched carefully.”

International student services provider IDP Education showed mixed fortunes during last month’s reporting season, according to Gerrish.

“At their February results they reported an overall beat in terms of earnings due to higher fees being earnt,” he said.

“However, there was obvious softness in IELTS [English testing] volumes… due mainly to visa backlogs.”

In the long run, the problem will correct itself.

“But the timing is unknown. As with all things in government, [it] seems to take longer than expected,” said Gerrish.

“We suspect that’s the underlying reason for [share price] weakness.”

So ultimately, which of the two would he buy during the current dip?

“We prefer Ramsay Health over IDP Education at this point.”

The post These ASX 200 shares just plunged. Which one’s the bargain? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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More reading

• 3 ‘defensive growth’ ASX shares perfect for the current climate: expert
• Where I would go hunting for defensive ASX 200 shares with upside
• Goldman Sachs says these ASX 200 shares are buys
• Leading brokers name 3 ASX shares to buy today
• ‘Still has legs’: Not too late to buy these 2 stellar ASX 200 shares, says expert

Motley Fool contributor Tony Yoo has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended IDP Education. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended IDP Education. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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If you’re wanting to boost your income with some ASX 200 dividend shares, then you might want to consider the two listed below.

Both have been tipped to provide investors with a growing stream of fully franked dividends. Here’s what you need to know about these dividend shares:

Coles Group Ltd (ASX: COL)

The first ASX 200 dividend share to look at is Coles.

It is one of the big two supermarket operators with over 800 supermarkets. It also owns over 900 liquor retail stores and over 700 Coles express stores. However, the latter are in the process of being divested.

Coles isn’t settling for this, though. As well as growing its network further, the company is aiming to make its operations more efficient through cost cutting and its focus on automation with Ocado.

Citi is very positive on its outlook and has a buy rating with a $20.20 price target on its shares. It is also forecasting fully franked dividends per share of 69 cents in FY 2023 and 71 cents in FY 2023.

Based on the current Coles share price of $18.00, this implies yields of 3.7% and 3.85%, respectively.

Suncorp Group Ltd (ASX: SUN)

Another ASX 200 dividend share that has been tipped as a buy is Suncorp.

It is one of Australia’s leading insurance and banking companies and the owner of brands including AAMI, Apia, Bingle, GIO, Shannons, Suncorp, and Vero brands.

Morgans is positive on Suncorp and currently has an add rating and $14.44 price target on its shares.

It likes the company due to its efficiency program, attractive valuation, and generous yield. In respect to the latter two, the broker commented that “[w]ith SUN trading on 11.5x FY24F earnings and a 6% dividend yield, we see it as reasonable value at current levels.”

At present, the broker is forecasting fully franked dividends per share of 77.7 cents in FY 2023 and 87.8 cents in FY 2024. Based on the current Suncorp share price of $11.94, this will mean yields of 6.5% and 7.35%, respectively.

The post Analysts say buy these growing ASX 200 dividend shares for passive income appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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More reading

• The record Coles dividend is being paid today. Here’s the lowdown
• Stay away from this ASX sector (and buy this one instead): expert
• Here are 2 ASX dividend shares that brokers rate as buys
• For $1,000 in monthly passive income, buy 18,462 shares of this ASX 200 stock
• Citi rates these 3 ASX 200 blue chip shares as buys

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Coles Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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Many ASX 200 bank stocks have been falling recently amid banking troubles in the northern hemisphere.

However, at a banking summit this week, Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) CEO Matt Comyn described the Australian banking system as “extremely strong”.

So let’s check what could be ahead for ASX 200 banking stocks.

What’s ahead?

Firstly, lets take a look at the performance of ASX 200 banking shares in the past month.

• Bendigo and Adelaide Bank (ASX: BEN) shares have slumped 13%
• Bank of Queensland Ltd (ASX: BOQ) shares have fallen 10%
• National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB) shares have slid nearly 10%
• ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: ANZ) shares have declined almost 9%
• Westpac Banking Corporation (ASX: WBC) shares have descended nearly 6%
• Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) shares have dropped 5%.

And yesterday, broker UBS slashed the price target on multiple ASX 200 banking shares.

Bank of Queensland was relegated to a sell with a $6 price target, while NAB and Bendigo Bank were also slashed to sell with $25 and $8 price targets respectively.

The broker retained a neutral rating on CBA but cut the price target to $100, the Australian Financial Review (AFR) reported. UBS also maintained its buy rating on ANZ shares with a downgraded price target of $25. Westpac was cut to neutral with a lowered $22.50 price target.

As quoted in The Australian, UBS analyst John Storey said recent events in the US and Europe have “lowered the confidence threshold of investors for banks in their portfolios”. He added:

Australia is no different, with the ASX banking index now down about 6.5 per cent year-to-date compared to the market falling 1.5%.

Extremely strong?

However, on the flip side, CBA boss Matt Comyn described the banking system in Australia as “extremely strong” at the AFR Banking Summit in Sydney.

He said:

I think the Australian banking system is a credit to the policy frameworks [and] is in an extremely strong position. I would say uniquely, globally.

Comyn noted spending still remains strong in hospitality and some parts of retail. He was also optimistic in the lending portfolio going forward:

We don’t see rapid deterioration in conditions coming … We see over the course of the year, a gradual [decline] as households come under more pressure each month.

The post ASX 200 bank stocks: ‘No different’ or ‘extremely strong’? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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More reading

• Bendigo Bank shares worst of the ASX 200 banks following UBS downgrade
• Down 10% in a month, what’s going on with the Bank of Queensland share price?
• Why Bendigo and Adelaide Bank, Jervois Global, Megaport, and NAB are dropping today
• Own CBA shares? Here’s the ASX 200 bank’s latest small business outlook
• Is time running out to buy high-yield ASX dividend shares?

Motley Fool contributor Monica O’Shea has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Bendigo And Adelaide Bank. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Westpac Banking. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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A large-cap S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) stock, after not doing much for three years, is about to rocket.

That’s the opinion of Fairmont Equities managing director Michael Gable, who said CSL Limited (ASX: CSL)’s one-year forward PE ratio of 28 is at the lower end of its 5-year range.

“With the current multiple looking undemanding in the context of forecast earnings per share growth of ~20% over FY22 to FY25 on a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) basis, we consider CSL to be an attractive investment at current levels.”

The CSL share price is still around 16% lower than its pre-COVID high reached in February 2020.

“The large consolidation from the past 3 years could be almost ending and that should lead to the stock resuming its longer-term uptrend,” Gable said on the Fairmont blog.

While the current labels remain an “attractive buy”, conviction would be even higher once the stock rockets to the next milestone.

“An upside break above $300 would be the next buy signal.”

Why is CSL an exciting long-term buy?

Gable cited some key catalysts on the horizon that could bear fruit for CSL investors.

“We consider the key catalysts for the shares to be: upside risk to gross profit margin expansion for CSL Behring over FY24 and FY25, further progress on the R&D product pipeline, and future results to validate the expected earnings growth contribution from the Vifor acquisition.”

Vifor’s numbers have already looked very positive, he added.

“Vifor’s sales performance in 1H23 surprised on the upside, with CSL re-iterating all prior guidance, including its cost synergy target of US$75 million over three years remaining on track.”

While raking in decent earnings from its mature businesses such as plasma collection, CSL is developing new products in the research lab.

“There are several potentially positive catalysts likely to emerge from the R&D product pipeline over the near term.”

The four product-in-progress milestones Gable looks forward to are:

• CSL112: currently in phase III trials, expected to launch early 2024
• Hemgenix: US launch expected in “the near term”
• Garadacimab for hereditary angioedema attacks: phase III data to be released soon
• New plasma collection nomogram trial: expected to start this quarter

CSL shares are currently popular among the professional community. According to CMC Markets, 16 out of 19 analysts are rating it as a buy.

The post This ASX 200 giant is about to wake up from a 3-year slumber. Are you ready? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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More reading

• Fundie says buy these 2 ASX 200 shares that have the planets aligned
• Does the CSL share price fall finally make it a no-brainer buy?
• Why these 3 ASX 200 shares could be leading picks for dividends and growth
• Top brokers name 3 ASX shares to buy next week
• Want to boost your portfolio with ASX blue chips? Analysts say buy these shares

Motley Fool contributor Tony Yoo has positions in CSL. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended CSL. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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Yesterday was a top day for the Coles Group Ltd (ASX: COL) share price. Coles finished the day up 0.45% at a flat $18 a share. That leaves its year-to-date performance at a healthy 9.36% for 2023 so far.

Today is also going to be a good day for Coles shareholders, no matter what the share price does. That’s because today is payday for the Coles dividend.

Last month, Coles reported its half-year earnings for the six months to December 2022.

As we covered at the time, the ASX 200 grocery giant reported a 17.1% rise in net profit after tax (NPAT) to $643 million. This came with a 17.2% lift in earnings per share (EPS), up to 48.3 cents per share. This enabled Coles to announce an interim dividend of 36 cents per share, fully franked.

Coles’ biggest dividend ever is coming to a bank account near you

This payment is the highest dividend Coles has ever paid out in its four-and-a-bit years of ASX life. It represents a pleasing 9.09% rise over last year’s interim dividend of 33 cents per share. Not to mention an even more impressive 20% increase over the inaugural interim dividend of 30 cents per share that we saw back in 2020.

With this latest dividend, Coles is on track to continue its trend of delivering annual dividend rises. The company paid out 57.5 cents per share in 2020, 61 cents per share in 2021, and 63 cents per share in 2023.

Eligibility for new investors for this dividend closed on 2 March when Coles traded ex-dividend.

But for those lucky investors who owned Coles shares before then, today is the day the dividend will be arriving in your bank account. Or else reinvested back into additional Coles shares if you’ve opted for the company’s dividend reinvestment plan (DRP).

At the last Coles share price of $18, this divided, combined with last year’s final payment, gives Coles a trailing dividend yield of 3.67%. That grosses up to 5.24% with the company’s full franking credits.

Despite Coles’ stellar year-to-date share price performance, this ASX 200 blue chip share remains up by just 0.22% over the past 12 months:

The post The record Coles dividend is being paid today. Here’s the lowdown appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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More reading

• Here are 2 ASX dividend shares that brokers rate as buys
• For $1,000 in monthly passive income, buy 18,462 shares of this ASX 200 stock
• Why is the Coles share price smashing the ASX 200 this year?
• Is the Coles share price heading back up to $19?
• 2 blue chip ASX 200 dividend shares to buy: brokers

Motley Fool contributor Sebastian Bowen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Coles Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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On Wednesday, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) was on form again and pushed slightly higher. The benchmark index rose 0.2% to 7,050.3 points.

Will the market be able to build on this on Thursday? Here are five things to watch:

ASX 200 expected to jump

The Australian share market is expected to have a strong session on Thursday after Wall Street charged higher. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open the day 51 points or 0.7% higher this morning. In late trade in the United States, the Dow Jones is up 1%, the S&P 500 has risen 1.45%, and the NASDAQ is up 1.85%.

Pilbara Minerals rated neutral

Analysts at Goldman Sachs continue to sit on the fence when it comes to Pilbara Minerals Ltd (ASX: PLS) shares. Despite having a price target of $4.80, which implies over 20% upside, the broker has reiterated its neutral rating this morning. It commented: “We rate PLS a Neutral on: 1) Valuation at ~1.1x NAV (peer average ~1.1x), or pricing ~US$1,080/t, 2) Strong production growth of ~3x to FY26E, and 3) Growing cash balance supports further growth opportunities and capital management.”

Oil prices fall

ASX 200 energy shares Beach Energy Ltd (ASX: BPT) and Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) could have a subdued session after oil prices dropped on Wednesday night. According to Bloomberg, the WTI crude oil price is down 0.4% to US$72.90 a barrel and the Brent crude oil price is down 0.5% to US$78.27 a barrel. Traders appear undecided over how tight supply levels are.

ASX 200 shares going ex-dividend

A number of ASX 200 shares are going ex-dividend on Thursday and could trade lower. This includes popular property companies such as Arena REIT (ASX: ARF), Centuria Industrial REIT (ASX: CIP), Charter Hall Long WALE REIT (ASX: CLW), and Cromwell Property Group (ASX: CMW).

Gold price falls

ASX 200 gold shares Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) and Regis Resources Limited (ASX: RRL) could have a tough session after the gold price fell overnight. According to CNBC, the spot gold price is down 0.5% to US$1,980.7 an ounce. Demand for safe haven assets weakened as equities charged higher.

The post 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Thursday appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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More reading

• To pause or not to pause? Here are the predictions on next week’s RBA rate decision
• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today
• Here are the 3 most heavily traded ASX 200 shares on Wednesday
• Why ALS, Centaurus Metals, Pilbara Minerals, and Westgold shares are rising today
• ASX 200 turns green on softer-than-expected inflation data

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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Ask A Fund Manager

The Motley Fool chats with the best in the industry so that you can get an insight into how the professionals think. In this edition, Chester Asset Management portfolio manager Rob Tucker decides whether three heavily discounted ASX shares are value traps or bargains.

Bargain buy or value trap?

The Motley Fool: Let’s examine three S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) shares that have been devastated this year, and see if you think each of these fallen stars are now a bargain to pick up or if you’d stay away.

The first one is Life360 Inc (ASX: 360), a software stock that’s plunged almost 30% since November.

Rob Tucker: Yeah, Life360 is a really interesting company. We use it in our family. I’m well aware of the business model and I think it will ultimately be successful. 

We probably have more of a value bend, so it’s probably not one for us just yet. But listening to the company on a webcast yesterday, I’ve followed very closely, if they can say what they’re going to do, which is [to] become cash flow breakeven this year, I’d look a lot closer at it. 

If I was thinking interest rates were going to be cut, and these tech companies would have another leg to their story, Life360 would certainly be one I’d be interested in. I’d really prefer to see it get to cash flow breakeven before I entertained it. I do like it. I think it’s a very strong story.

MF: You’re the first person I’ve run into who’s actually used the software. How do you find it? You obviously find it useful.

RT: Yeah, we’ve got [from] a nine-year-old to a 15-year-old — four kids. And we find it very useful just tracking them. I don’t need to ring them. I say, “My son’s at the park having a kick of footy.” You can see, “Oh, he’s at 7-Eleven.” I quite like it for that reason. 

There’s about 34 million users, with about one-and-a-half [million] paid subscribers. The Life360 story’s actually converting those users into paid subscribers. 

And they’ve got a bit of a pricing lever. 

Most of the time in the US, it’s for crash protection and some driving awareness software in terms of alerting if they’ve had a crash, they can alert the insurance company and get the ambulance sent out and things like that. A lot of people in America use it for that reason. 

If they can convince people that there’s real value-add services in all the products they have, and the number of paid subscribers keeps growing, I think it will be a genuinely strong cash flow story.

I’d like to see a little bit more, just another year or so of momentum before we entertain it.

MF: Fair enough. Next one’s Corporate Travel Management Ltd (ASX: CTD), which is down about a third since April.

RT: Corporate Travel’s not one I spent that much time on personally. I’m obviously familiar with the business model, but not that close to the management team. I’ll make a broad comment that I think corporate travel is being priced for an acceleration of travel expenditure, and that’s [why] I’m probably quite cautious over the next 12 months. 

I think we’ve had a honeymoon [period] of revenge spending on travel in the backend of 2022. Everyone wanted to get away and booked travel. 

I think we’re going into a period of economic weakness… It is cyclical, and I think we’ve had a huge uptick, and I think [travel] probably softens off a bit over the next 12 to 18 months. I think for me, Corporate Travel’s still probably on the sidelines just because of the cyclical softness we’ll see in the next 12 to 18 months in travel spend.

MF: The last one is Insignia Financial Ltd (ASX: IFL), which used to be IOOF. That’s still 62% lower than pre-COVID highs. Bargain or value trap?

RT: We think that’s a really strong leverage to rising markets. It’s unbelievably cheap. It may be a value trap, but I think you’re, with a 7.5% dividend yield, being paid to wait for an uptick in the market. 

It’s a really high fixed cost base, so if the market does participate and funds under management rises, the fall through the bottom line will accelerate earnings aggressively. I think it’s really interesting here. I’d say it’s probably one we’d look at. We don’t hold it, but it’s one that we’d look at quite closely. I’m more on the buy side.

Of those three, for me, it’d probably be IFL, 360 with a little bit more cash flow certainty, and then Corporate Travel.

The post Bargain or value trap? Fundie rates 3 ASX 200 shares going for cheap appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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More reading

• Go for gold: Advisors name 2 ASX 200 shares to pounce on
• Wilson reckons these 2 ASX 200 shares look ready for a massive 2023
• Buy these ASX 200 shares for 50%+ returns: Goldman Sachs
• Goldman Sachs names 5 of the best ASX tech shares to buy now
• Leading brokers name 3 ASX shares to buy today

Motley Fool contributor Tony Yoo has positions in Corporate Travel Management, Insignia Financial, and Life360. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Life360. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Corporate Travel Management. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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The Bendigo and Adelaide Bank (ASX: BEN) share price closed lower today, falling further than other ASX 200 banks amid a broker downgrade.

Bendigo Bank shares slipped 3.08% to finish at $8.50 apiece. For perspective, the S&P/ASX 200 (ASX: XJO) gained 0.23% today.

Let’s take a look at how Bendigo Bank and other ASX 200 bank shares fared on Wednesday.

What’s impacting ASX 200 bank shares?

Bendigo Bank shares were not the only ASX 200 bank shares to fall today. National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX:NAB) shares closed down 2.24%, while Westpac Banking Corporation (ASX: WBC) slid 0.74% and Bank of Queensland Ltd (ASX: BOQ) shares fell 1.7%.

However, Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) shares climbed 0.29%, while ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: ANZ) shares closed a slim 0.09% higher.

Bendigo Bank shares fell amid broker UBS placing a “sell” rating on Bendigo shares with an $8 price target. This implies a downside of about 5.9% based on today’s closing price.

Commenting on the banks, UBS analyst John Storey said, cited by The Australian:

Recent events in the US and Europe in our view have lowered the confidence threshold of investors for banks in their portfolios.

Australia is no different, with the ASX banking index now down about 6.5 per cent year-to-date compared to the market falling 1.5%.

UBS has also cut NAB to a sell with a $25 price target, while Westpac has been slashed to neutral with a $22.50 price target, the Australian Financial Review reported.

UBS still rates ANZ a buy but with a lowered $25 price target, while CBA’s neutral rating has been maintained with a slightly lower price target of $100. Meanwhile, Bank of Queensland has also been downgraded to sell with a $6 price target.

Share price snapshot

The Bendigo Bank share price has fallen 17% in the last year. In the past month alone, Bendigo Bank shares have declined 13%.

Bendigo Bank has a market capitalisation of about $4.8 billion based on the current share price.

The post Bendigo Bank shares worst of the ASX 200 banks following UBS downgrade appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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More reading

• Down 10% in a month, what’s going on with the Bank of Queensland share price?
• Why Bendigo and Adelaide Bank, Jervois Global, Megaport, and NAB are dropping today
• Own CBA shares? Here’s the ASX 200 bank’s latest small business outlook
• Is time running out to buy high-yield ASX dividend shares?
• Stay away from this ASX sector (and buy this one instead): expert

Motley Fool contributor Monica O’Shea has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Bendigo And Adelaide Bank. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Westpac Banking. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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Weaker-than-expected inflation data today has raised the prospects of a Reserve Bank (RBA) rate decision next week that mortgage holders and ASX shares investors will actually like.

A sample of expert opinions shows many think the RBA is likely to pause rate rises for the first time in 11 months when the board meets on Tuesday to discuss its next decision.

According to the Bureau of Statistics’ latest CPI numbers, inflation for the 12 months to 28 February was 6.8%. That’s still high by historical standards but a hefty fall from the 7.4% recorded in January.

The figure was also below forecasts of 7.2%, thereby surprising the market.

There was an immediate and continual uplift in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) from about midday after the report was released.

Is it enough to convince the RBA to keep the official cash rate steady at 3.6%?

Let’s see what the experts think.

What will the next RBA rate decision be?

According to the Australian Financial Review (AFR), interbank futures have scaled back expectations of a rate rise in April from 18% to 3% following today’s inflation figures.

The AFR reports the following RBA rate decision predictions from brokers, economists, and other experts.

Citi thinks the RBA rate decision might be a hold.

Citi economist Josh Williamson said:

We reconcile the difference by now forecasting the cash rate on hold but for guidance to keep open the option of a further tightening in monetary policy should subsequent data show ongoing stubborn inflation pressures or higher than expected wages growth from the still tight labour market.

Catherine Birch from ANZ says the data shows ongoing strong inflation momentum, so she tips an 0.25% rise.

Birch said:

Australia’s monthly CPI indicator showed inflation momentum remains strong and is not slowing as much as the fall in annual inflation would suggest. Along with previous data releases, this makes us comfortable with our call that the RBA will raise the cash rate 25 basis points at its April meeting.

Su-Lin Ong of RBC Capital Markets reckons the RBA will pause in April before hiking again in May.

Ong said:

We push back our April hike, most likely to May. The window to hike further appears small ahead of the step-up in fixed rate mortgage expiry from mid-year but the RBA may be forced to resume tightening if inflation proves sticky.

Paul Bloxham at HSBC thinks the RBA rate decision next week will be a pause in rate hikes.

Bloxham said:

Our rule of thumb has been that once the RBA is convinced that inflation has peaked and that the unemployment rate has troughed, the RBA would pause. We now have more evidence that inflation has indeed passed its peak, economic activity is slowing, and the unemployment rate is past its trough.

Beyond April, we expect the RBA to keep the cash rate at 3.60 per cent for a number of quarters.

Diana Mousina, a senior economist at AMP, also tips that the RBA will take a break in April, partly due to the banking sector turmoil in the United States and Europe that has brought down three banks.

Given the weakening in domestic economic momentum, the slowing in inflation and the risks in the global banking sector, we see the RBA keeping the cash rate on hold next week …

Overall, the data showed that while the Australian economy is holding up, it has lost some momentum since late 2022 which is a sign that interest rate hikes are working.

Brendan Rynne, KPMG chief economist, thinks inflation is still too high and employment too strong for the RBA to start pausing rates.

He thinks the RBA rate decision next week will be an 11th consecutive rise, at 0.25%, followed by a pause.

Dr Rynne said:

The end of the tightening cycle now appears to be very close.

According to reporting in The Australian, Goldman Sachs is in the rate rise camp for next week.

Goldman Sachs Australia chief economist Andrew Boak said:

Ultimately, Australian inflation is far too high – with clearer signs of an acceleration from persistent sources in the services sector.

UBS has reaffirmed its tip for an RBA pause in April, a final 0.25% hike in May, and a cut in November.

UBS chief economist George Tharenou said:

The February monthly CPI indicator implies CPI is very likely tracking below the RBA’s implied profile.

Assuming financial market volatility/dislocation eases by May and CPI does not continue surprising on the downside, we still expect the RBA to hike 25 basis points, to a peak of 3.85 per cent at their May meeting.

EY chief economist Cherelle Murphy is not optimistic that the RBA rate decision will be to hold steady.

A few months of softer indicators does not necessarily mean inflation is on a one way track down, as indicated by recent data in other developed countries.

With inflation remaining uncomfortably high, a resilient labour market, and business conditions sitting above pre-Covid levels, there is still a case for further rate hikes.

Capital Economics tips the RBA to pause rate rises next month before one final increase in May.

The post To pause or not to pause? Here are the predictions on next week’s RBA rate decision appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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More reading

• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today
• Here are the 3 most heavily traded ASX 200 shares on Wednesday
• ASX 200 turns green on softer-than-expected inflation data
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Wednesday
• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today

HSBC Holdings is an advertising partner of The Ascent, a Motley Fool company. Citigroup is an advertising partner of The Ascent, a Motley Fool company. Motley Fool contributor Bronwyn Allen has positions in Anz Group. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Goldman Sachs Group. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has recommended HSBC Holdings. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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