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The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is having a rather shaky Tuesday so far this session. After opening strongly this morning, the ASX 200 has lost most of its steam and is currently up by just 0.1%. But the same can’t be said of the Block Inc (ASX: SQ2) share price today.

Block shares are on fire this Tuesday. The US-based fintech company formerly known as Square is currently up a whopping 6.4% at $115.48 a share at the time of writing, well above the return of the broader market.

So what’s going on here?

Why is the Block share price on fire?

Well, Block isn’t your normal ASX share. Its ASX listing is actually a CHESS Depositary Interest (CDI), which means the ASX shares represent ownership of another, foreign-listed investment. In Block’s case, it is the original shares of Block Inc (NYSE: SQ) that are listed on the US markets.

This arrangement came out of Block’s decision to acquire the old ASX-listed buy now, pay later (BNPL) pioneer Afterpay. Afterpay used to be an ASX share (as many of us would remember). But its ASX listing was replaced by Block when the American giant bought Afterpay back in early 2022.

So this situation probably gives us the best indication of why Block shares are on a tear today. Last night (our time), Block’s US-listed shares rocketed 7.22% to US$81.66. As such, Block’s ASX listing was always going to have a cracking day today.

Most US tech shares had a stellar session across the Pacific last night.

Tesla Inc (NASDAQ: TSLA) shares were up 7.74%, while Shopify Inc (NYSE: SHOP) and Netflix Inc (NASDAQ: NFLX) were up 8.8% and 4.9%, respectively. It seems Block shares have just been caught up in this stampede to tech.

It’s not too different on the ASX today. Some ASX tech shares had very strong mornings, although many have slumped around lunchtime. Xero Limited (ASX: XRO) shares were up around 3% at one point, as was Appen Ltd (ASX: APX). Cettire Ltd (ASX: CTT) is a standout performer this Tuesday, up by almost 10% at the time of writing.

The post Why is the Block share price surging 6% on Tuesday? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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More reading

• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today
• Why Alumina, Block, Liontown, and Nanosonics shares are dropping today
• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today
• Why Ampol, Block, JB Hi-Fi, and Telix shares are racing higher
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Monday

Motley Fool contributor Sebastian Bowen has positions in Tesla, Netflix and Shopify. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Appen, Block, Netflix, Shopify, Tesla, and Xero. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has recommended the following options: long January 2023 $1,140 calls on Shopify and short January 2023 $1,160 calls on Shopify. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Block and Xero. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Cettire and Netflix. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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It is fair to say that Novonix Ltd (ASX: NVX) shares have had a difficult 12 months.

As you can see on the chart below, since this time last year, the battery materials technology company’s shares have lost 77% of their value.

This means that if you had invested $1,000 into the company’s shares a year ago, you would unfortunately only have $230 leftover today.

Clearly, Novonix shares have underperformed the market. But will that be the case again in 2023 or will things be better for investors?

Novonix shares to rise in 2023?

Unfortunately, Novonix shares are not widely covered by brokers, so we don’t have a lot of opinions on the company’s outlook for the year ahead.

In fact, the only major broker covering the company is Morgans. The good news, though, is that the broker is cautiously optimistic on its outlook.

Late last year, its analysts put a speculative buy rating and $3.11 price target on the company’s shares.

So, with Novonix shares currently trading at $1.89, this suggests that they could rise almost 65% over the next 12 months.

If this recommendation proves to be on the money, it would turn a $1,000 investment into $1,650 at the end of the year.

Potential catalysts

Ultimately, whether 2023 is a successful year for Novonix shares may depend on anode prices and the progress it makes on the construction of its US manufacturing facility for high-performance synthetic graphite anode materials.

The latter is scheduled is on track to begin a delivery rate of 3,000 tonnes per annum (tpa) of high-performance synthetic graphite to KORE Power in 2024.

Finally, it is worth highlighting that Morgans has a speculative rating on its shares. This means that an investment carries a lot of risk.

The post If I invest $1,000 in Novonix shares now, what could my return be this year? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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More reading

• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today
• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today
• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today
• 3 catalysts that could boost Novonix shares in 2023
• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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The Sandfire Resources Ltd (ASX: SFR) share price is wobbling in and out of the green today as the market digests conflicting news from the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) copper giant.

The company revealed both disappointing quarterly production and a new copper-zinc zone at its MATSA operations in southwestern Spain.

After opening 0.2% higher at $6.26, the Sandfire share price dropped to a low of $6.15 – marking a 1.6% fall. It has since recovered somewhat to trade 0.32% lower at $6.23.

Sandfire share price wobbles despite MATSA ‘breakthrough’

The Sandfire share price is hot and cold despite the company revealing its first exploration success at the MATSA copper operations following its $2.6 billion acquisition.

Drilling at the project has found a new zone of volcanic massive sulphide (VMS) copper-zinc-silver mineralisation, dubbed the San Pedro Zone. It’s likely connected to the operation’s Aguas Teñidas Deposit.

Sandfire acting CEO Jason Grace commented on “the first significant exploration breakthrough” since the project’s acquisition, saying:

The identification of the San Pedro Zone shows what can be achieved through a disciplined, systematic, and technically sound approach to exploration – and highlights the enormous exploration opportunity in front of us.

ASX 200 copper share posts disappointing production

Here are the key takeaways from the company’s December quarter production compared to that of the prior quarter:

• Total copper production fell 29% to 20,031 tonnes
• Zinc production increased 1% to 19.755 tonnes
• Production of lead slipped 22% to 1,921 tonnes
• Gold production dropped 44% to 4,562 ounces
• Silver production fell 14% to 600,000 ounces
• C1 unit cost came to US$1.73 per pound of copper

Over the half year, the company produced 48,088 tonnes of copper, 39,290 tonnes of zinc, 4,398 tonnes of lead, 12,777 ounces of gold, and 1.3 million ounces of silver.

Meanwhile, the construction of its Motheo Copper Mine remains on schedule and it has begun the process to sell its DeGrussa Copper Operations.

Sandfire ended the quarter with US$263.7 million of cash and US$378.3 million of net debt following a $200 million capital raise.

What did management say?

Grace commented on the quarterly update likely driving on the ASX 200 copper share today, saying:

The December quarter marked another positive and productive period for Sandfire, as we took further important steps to strengthen our balance sheet and de-risk our growth pathway against the backdrop of a strong outlook for the copper sector.

What’s next?

While its December quarter may have disappointed the market, Sandfire is confident on its full-year production.

Its financial year 2023 production guidance remains at 83 kilotons to 91 kilotons of copper, 78 kilotons and 83 kilotons of zinc, 6 kilotons to 10 kilotons of lead, 12 thousand ounces to 14 thousand ounces of gold, and 2.2 million ounces to 3.2 million ounces of silver. Its C1 unit cost of copper is tipped to come in at US$1.74 a pound.

However, changes to the mine plan at MATSA’s Magdalena Mine leave the company expecting the operation’s copper production to come in at the lower end of its guided­ 60 kilotons to 65 kilotons. Meanwhile, production at Motheo is tipped to begin in the coming quarter.

Sandfire share price outperforms the ASX 200 in 2023

The Sandfire share price has posted a notable 14% gain in 2023 so far despite today’s volatility. Meanwhile, the ASX 200 has risen 7%.

Looking further back, however, the stock has slumped 7% over the last 12 months. Meanwhile, the ASX 200 has gained 4%.

The post ‘Exploration breakthrough’: What’s going on with this ASX 200 copper share today? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Tuesday
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Motley Fool contributor Brooke Cooper has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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Buying bonds, whether they be corporate bonds or government bonds, is not as popular here in Australia as it is in the United States.

The US has a strong culture of investing in bonds and Treasury Bills. But Australia’s debt markets are not nearly as accessible. In fact, the only way for most retail investors to buy bonds here is through exchange-traded funds (ETFs). But perhaps Telstra Group Ltd (ASX: TLS) is trying to change that.

A bond is a wholly different investing vehicle than a share. Where a share represents ownership of a company, a bond is, in effect, a loan. When a company or government issues a bond, it is bought by investors. These investors are then entitled to receive interest as long as they hold the bond.

It is nothing more than a loan, and does not represent ownership of the company (or government) that issues it.

Investors traditionally invest in bonds because they are viewed as ‘safer’ than investing in shares. This is particularly the case for government bonds. Because a government can’t go bankrupt, the debt that it issues is typically classed as ‘risk-free’.

Is Telstra going to issue bonds to everyday investors?

Companies, unlike governments, can go broke. But most ETFs that cover corporate bonds only invest in those issued by the most financially healthy companies in the markets. That arguably covers Telstra Group.

According to reporting in the Australian Financial Review (AFR) this month, Telstra, along with fellow ASX 200 blue chip Wesfarmers Ltd (ASX: WES), is reportedly considering selling bonds directly to retail investors for the first time.

The companies are keen to boost their capital by appealing directly to retail investors, who might be excited to cash in on rising interest rates. The interest returns from bonds are directly tied to interest rates.

Many investors began ignoring this asset class altogether when central banks reduced global interest rates to near-zero levels during the pandemic. But now rates have started rising, the situation has changed.

Bond coupon rates from top corporate issuers have reportedly risen from less than 2% to more than 5% over the past 12 months. If Telstra issues a five-year bond, it could pay an interest rate of around 5%. That is more than the dividend yield on offer from the company at present.

If Telstra and Wesfarmers do go down this path, it could unlock a new source of income for retail investors. However, this is just speculative at this point. Telstra’s investor website still tells us that “we do not offer bonds to retail investors or the general public”.

So for now, investors might have to stick with ETFs like the Vanguard Australian Corporate Fixed Interest Index ETF (ASX: VACF).

But this space is definitely one worth watching.

The post Does Telstra sell bonds to ASX retail investors? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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More reading

• Telstra shares: ‘Some healthy options that are underappreciated’
• ‘Fierce competitor’: Expert names 2 big brand ASX shares ready to take off in 2023
• My top predictions for ASX lithium shares in 2023
• How much profit could Telstra shares make in 2023?
• Telstra share price is ‘undervalued’ right now: broker

Motley Fool contributor Sebastian Bowen has positions in Telstra Group. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Telstra Group and Wesfarmers. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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The Webjet Limited (ASX: WEB) share price has performed brilliantly over the past six months, rising by 30%.

The ASX travel share sector has seen robust performance overall as demand returns for destination travel.

But will Webjet be able to keep impressing investors?

Strong recovery

A couple of months ago, the business announced its FY23 first-half result.

It said that total transaction value (TTV) had jumped 223% year over year to $2.14 billion. This helped revenue rise by 217% to $175.7 million and underlying earnings before interest, tax, deprecation, and amortisation (EBITDA) jump 557% to $72.5 million.

Webjet said that this result was underpinned by its efforts as soon as the pandemic hit to ensure that each business was “optimally positioned to recapture demand once travel returned. Recovery is substantially accelerating and WebBeds is leading the charge”, according to the company.

WebBeds saw all regions achieve “significant” organic growth, particularly in Europe. In North America, the business is now three times bigger than before COVID-19 began.

Webjet also boasted that it was one of the most profitable online travel agents in the world before the pandemic, implying this could be the case with the recovery as well.

Can the Webjet share price keep performing?

Webjet suggested that WebBeds is picking up market share in all regions, with the capability to scale rapidly. It said that FY23 third-quarter bookings and TTV were tracking at more than 30% ahead of pre-pandemic levels. FY23 EBITDA is also “expected to be higher than it was pre-pandemic”.

Webjet’s online travel agency business has “increased its market share by 57% since the pandemic began”. It thinks that new technology has “enormous potential” to increase its share of the international flights market.

With demand for travel reportedly strong, the restoration of airline capacity will drive profitability for the Webjet OTA [online travel agent] business.

Using Commsec estimates, the Webjet share price is valued at 22 times FY24’s estimated earnings, showing that the business could generate a solid profit in the next financial year.

According to the consensus of analyst opinions that Commsec covers, it’s rated as a buy by nine, rated as a hold by five, and only two currently rate it as a sell.

I believe that Webjet has a promising future, but I’d only start off with a small position at the current price level and consider buying more on any dips. It could start paying a dividend in FY24, which could be useful for boosting returns.

The post Up 30% in six months: Can the Webjet share price fly even higher? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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More reading

• Waiting for ASX shares to bottom? Why you could miss out on a stock market rally
• 4 ASX 200 shares celebrating Friday with new, 52-week highs
• 5 ASX 200 shares smashing new, 52-week highs on Thursday
• Could ASX 200 travel shares be set for a major boost in 2023?
• The Webjet share price recovered 20% in 2022. Is this just the beginning?

Motley Fool contributor Tristan Harrison has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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The BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) share price is rising today amid news of a new copper deal.

BHP shares are climbing 0.73% and are currently trading at $49.76. For perspective, the S&P/ASX 200 (ASX: XJO) is up 0.05% today.

Let’s take a look at what could be weighing on the BHP share price today.

What’s going on ?

BHP has entered a deal with Canadian company Mundoro Capital Inc. (TSXV: MUN) to explore copper in Serbia.

In a release overnight, Mundoro said it had entered into a “definitive agreement” with a wholly owned subsidiary of BHP. This will provide BHP with the right to earn an option in three copper exploration areas held by Mundoro.

The copper projects are located within and near the Timok Magmatic Complex in Serbia.

Commenting on the news, Mundoro CEO Teo Dechev said:

Mundoro welcomes BHP as an exploration partner that recognizes the potential of further exploration in the western Tethyan Belt. 

The news comes after BHP entered a scheme implementation deed to potentially acquire 100% of copper miner OZ Minerals Ltd (ASX: OZL) in late December. The proposal is subject to approval by Oz Minerals shareholders at a meeting likely to be held in late March or early April 2023.

The copper price edged higher overnight amid stronger demand from China. Copper lifted 0.3% to US $9,356 a tonne. In a research note this morning, ANZ senior economist Catherine Birch said:

Copper edged higher as supply risks added to the positive tone as investors look to stronger demand from China.

The reopening of the world’s second largest economy is expected to unleash a wave of pent-up demand.

BHP is also a major iron ore producer. The iron ore price has fallen 0.18% to US$121.94 a tonne, trading economics data shows. The share price of fellow iron ore giant Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO) is down 0.1% today, while Fortescue Metals (ASX: FMG) shares are climbing 0.4%.

Share price snapshot

The BHP share price has soared nearly 23% in the last year. In the past month, BHP shares have climbed 7.8%.

BHP has a market capitalisation of about $252 billion based on the current share price.

The post BHP share price lifts amid copper deal appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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More reading

• Looking to energise returns with this pocket of undervalued ASX shares in 2023
• Why a merger between Fortescue and this major-league miner could make sense: expert
• Why Fortescue shares could be facing a Meta-like problem
• Should I buy ASX mining shares now or not?
• Top brokers name 3 ASX shares to buy next week

Motley Fool contributor Monica O’Shea has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) gold share Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) is marching higher on Tuesday. The Evolution share price was up more than 2% in early trade and is currently up 0.3% at $3.26 per share.

This comes on the heels of this morning’s release of the gold miner’s December quarterly report along with updates on several of its gold projects.

Below we look at the highlights from the quarter just gone.

ASX 200 gold share gains as costs fall

The Evolution Mining share price is in the green after the miner reported a 3% quarter-on-quarter increase in gold production to 166,404 ounces.

Copper production was up 7% from the prior quarter to 15,483 tonnes.

On the cost side, the ASX 200 gold share reported a 27% reduction in all-in-sustaining costs (AISC), which dipped to $1,099 per ounce (US$722/oz). This came alongside a 6% increase in the miner’s achieved gold price.

These factors saw Evolution Mining’s operating mine cash flow grow 31% to $270 million for the quarter.

The company reported it held $313 million in cash with liquidity of $838 million after scheduled debt repayments of $40 million.

Both its Cowal and Ernest Henry projects were highlighted as standout performers. Ongoing exploration drilling at Ernest Henry has intersected significant mineralisation indicating a potential expansion.

Evolution also reported on promising assay results just in from a diamond drilling campaign at its Cue Joint Venture with Musgrave Minerals Ltd (ASX: MGV) in Western Australia’s Murchison district.

What did management say?

Commenting on the results sending the ASX 200 gold share higher, Evolution CEO Lawrie Conway said:

We generated very strong operating cash flow this quarter which reinforces our position as one of the lowest cost, highest margin global gold producers. Our sustained focus on operating and capital costs in the current environment continues to deliver benefits.

What’s next for the ASX 200 gold share?

Evolution Mining maintained its FY23 production and AISC guidance at 720,000 ounces (+/- 5%) and $1,240 ounces (+/- 5%).

“We remain on track to deliver Group FY23 production and cost guidance with planned quarterly performance weighted to the second half of the year,” Conway said.

Evolution Mining share price snapshot

As you can see in the chart below, the Evolution Mining share price took a tumble as gold prices retraced mid-2022. Over the past 12 months, the ASX 200 gold share is down 18%.

The post ASX 200 gold share Evolution Mining gains on increased production and falling costs appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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More reading

• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Tuesday
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Thursday
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Wednesday
• ‘Upwards trend to continue’ for this ASX 200 gold share: expert
• ‘No signs of weakness’: Expert names 2 ASX shares to buy just starting their rise

Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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The Myer Holdings Ltd (ASX: MYR) share price is getting more attention than a Boxing Day sale today after releasing a trading update.

At the time of writing, shares in the Australian department store group are trading 5.9% higher to 90 cents. The sizeable gain has set yet another 52-week high for the company’s shares, continuing a blazing 6-month stint for the Myer share price.

Let’s peer into the latest update to understand what all the fuss is about.

Clawing its way back to record numbers

After a long stretch of declining sales (pictured below), the 122-year-old Aussie retail chain has posted its best sales on record for the first five months of the financial year.

According to the update, Myer increased its sales by 24.8% for the five months ending 31 December 2022 compared to the prior corresponding period. Investors are cheering about the solid performance, pushing the Myer share price higher.

The substantial increase was buoyed by store sales, which surged 37.9%. Meanwhile, online sales scaled back 9.4% compared to the comparative period. Pleasingly, sales surpassed pre-COVID levels in the first half of FY19 by 14.3%.

Though, it was pointed out that the prior period being compared was impacted by store closures — possibly assisting with larger gains year over year.

Notably, total sales were up 8.7% for the six weeks leading up to Christmas compared to last year.

What about profits?

Record sales are always good to see, but profits are what really counts. Fortunately, Myer is expecting net profit after tax (NPAT) of between $61 million and $66 million in the first half of FY23. The commendable result would reflect an astounding increase between 89% and 104%.

Exact figures will be presented in early March as the company’s interim reporting period finishes on 28 January.

Despite the stellar expected results, Myer CEO John King noted their continued vigilance, stating:

As with most retailers, we remain cautious on the macroeconomic environment for the remainder of the calendar year but are equally confident in the continuing momentum we have within the Customer First Plan and a range of initiatives we are executing.

Myer share price snapshot

The Myer share price has wiped the floor with the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) during the past 12 months. Where the benchmark has returned a mediocre 4.6%, Myer has delivered a mouthwatering 143% gain before dividends.

Myer currently holds a market capitalisation of approximately $735 million.

The post Myer share price leaps 6% amid supercharged sales appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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More reading

• Analyst says Pilbara Minerals share price can keep rising
• ASX 200 lithium share Sayona has surged 38% in 2023. Too late to buy?
• Zip share price on the move amid record quarter and US profitability
• Two factors to decide if your ASX shares will make money in 2023: fund manager
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Motley Fool contributor Mitchell Lawler has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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The Pilbara Minerals Ltd (ASX: PLS) share price is pushing higher again on Tuesday.

In morning trade, the lithium miner’s shares are up 1.5% to $4.92.

As you can see below, this means the Pilbara Minerals share price is now up an impressive 32% since the start of the year.

Can the Pilbara Minerals share price keep rising?

One leading broker believes that it isn’t too late to snap up shares.

According to a note out of Morgans, its analysts have retained their add rating and lifted their price target on the lithium giant’s shares to $5.40.

Based on the latest Pilbara Minerals shares price, this implies potential upside of 10% for investors over the next 12 months.

In addition, the broker is expecting a maiden dividend of 20 cents per share in FY 2023. This equates to a 4% dividend yield, stretching the total potential return to 14%.

What did the broker say?

Morgans was impressed with Pilbara Minerals’ quarterly update, noting that its production beat its forecasts. It said:

PLS grew production 10% qoq and beat our forecast by 10% and Visible Alpha consensus by 15%. Sales volumes were more in line with our forecast (+2%) but pricing was also stronger so revenue beat our forecast by 10%.

In addition, the broker suspects that lithium supply could not be as great as expected due to project slippage. It expects this to support higher lithium prices for longer, which bodes well for Pilbara Minerals and other miners. Morgans adds:

We have rolled through our higher expected prices for spodumene and hydroxide as per our recent update for AKE. We see a trend of project slippage for other lithium producers and therefore think a slower roll off in FY24 towards our long-term price forecasts is more likely.

We maintain our ADD rating given the upside that we see to our target price. The company’s growing cash balance gives it options for capital management including buybacks or a special dividend.

The post Analyst says Pilbara Minerals share price can keep rising appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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The Sayona Mining Ltd (ASX: SYA) share price has started 2023 out on the right foot, to say the least.

The stock has soared 37.9% year to date to trade at 26 cents a share right now as the company gears up to restart production at its North American Lithium (NAL) operation.

For comparison, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) has lifted 4.4% since the start of this year.

But have ASX lithium fans not yet on-board Sayona shares missed the boat? Let’s take a look at what the future might hold for the lithium up-and-comer.

What might 2023 hold for Sayona shares?

It’s shaping up to be a big year for Sayona and, seemingly, its share price. However, there are a few factors I believe are worth considering when sussing out the stock as a potential buy. The first being its maiden revenue.

The company expects to restart its NAL operation’s production in the current quarter. After that, partner Piedmont Lithium Inc (ASX: PLL) has agreed to buy up 113,000 tonnes of spodumene concentrate or half of the operation’s production each year, whichever is greater.

For reference, the ASX 200 lithium favourite aims to produce 220 kilotons of spodumene 6% from its Abitibi lithium hub in Canada, which comprises the NAL operation and the Authier project.

Thanks in part to Piedmont’s offtake agreement, Sayona will likely recognise its maiden revenue on the restart, set to occur amid soaring lithium prices – a potential harbinger of share price gains.

But there’s a slight hitch.

The agreement between Sayona and Piedmont will see the latter paying a maximum of US$900 a tonne for the lithium product. That’s well below current spot prices.

Indeed, Goldman Sachs is tipping the price of lithium spodumene 6% to trade at US$4,330 a tonne this year, as my Fool colleague James reports. Though, the broker expects the material’s value to slip to US$800 a tonne in 2024.

Thus, Sayona’s revenue might not initially stack up against that of some of its ASX 200 lithium peers.

Additionally, as I recently explored, it might be some time until Sayona is operating in the green.

Indeed, many of its lithium projects are still in the exploration phase, thereby dragging on its bottom line.

Is the ASX 200 lithium share a buy right now?

Unprofitable companies often face greater risks than their profitable counterparts.

On that note, I’d argue shares in ASX 200 lithium companies that are already producing and profiting, like Pilbara Minerals Ltd (ASX: PLS) and Allkem Ltd (ASX: AKE), could be better positioned to gain in 2023 than Sayona, as their earnings might be bolstered amid demand for the battery-making material.

On the other hand, unprofitable outfits can also house greater rewards.

As Sayona noted in its most recent quarterly report, it’s expecting to launch production ahead of other North American projects. That could see it “on a fast track” to downstream value-adding lithium carbonate or hydroxide production – a key benefit over its nearby peers.

Not to mention, demand for lithium is expected to hold up over the coming years amid decarbonisation.

Therefore, I think Sayona shares might be worth considering as a longer-term buy, depending on an investors’ risk tolerance.

The post ASX 200 lithium share Sayona has surged 38% in 2023. Too late to buy? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Brooke Cooper has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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