The chances are you’re feeling pretty crook in the stomach thinking about your finances and investments right now.
“The nights are long, life is eye-wateringly expensive, the world and his wife are on strike and your investments are probably worth a bit less than they were a year ago,” Fidelity International investment director Tom Stevenson said in the UK’s The Telegraph.
“Happy new year.”
So what can we expect in 2023? Stevenson gazed into his crystal ball for some answers.
Stock markets are not the economy
It was about a year ago when stock markets peaked then spent all of 2022 in a quagmire of pessimism.
This behaviour was the perfect demonstration of how shares are far more forward-looking compared to the economy.
“The rest of the world has now caught up, with the International Monetary Fund predicting that a third of the world will be in recession this year.”
So the first piece of advice from Stevenson is to keep looking ahead during 2023 when there will be much noise about how awful the world is going.
“Investors’ first new year resolution should be to lift their gaze above what is certain to be a gloomy cocktail of headlines.”
Second thing to remember is that Stevenson reckons stock markets will start rising well before the real-time economy even looks like it’s recovering.
“They fell in 2022 ahead of the economic challenges we are starting to feel now and they will turn the other way before the green shoots of recovery actually appear,” he said.
“That is directionally what will happen. The exact timing of the market pivot, however, is harder to predict.”
Patience will be handsomely rewarded
Stevenson’s analysis of 150 years of movements in the US suggests that the current cycle has more to run.
“The duration of the current bear market is short if, as is likely, we do suffer a recession this year. This certainly argues against the October low being the trough for the current cycle.”
But to counter this, “deteriorating sentiment” seems to be already priced in.
“That part of the reset has already happened. The 32% decline in the marketâs price-to-earnings multiple is in line with the long run average.”
Therefore, Stevenson’s advice is that patience will be required for a revival in stock prices.
“I expect the October low to be retested, perhaps more than once this year. The principal driver of that will be lower earnings rather than a further fall in valuation.”
He noted from history that it’s not impossible for the market to fall in two consecutive years, but it’s highly unusual.
And staying invested will ultimately prove fruitful for those who can stick it out.
“The average gain from a bear market low to the next peak is almost 90% over three-and-a-half years,” said Stevenson.
“So, really, despite it all, happy new year.”
The post Get ready for shares to take off in 2023: expert appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.
FREE Beginners Investing Guide
Despite what some people may say – we believe investing in shares doesn’t have to be overwhelming or complicated…
For over a decade, we’ve been helping everyday Aussies get started on their journey.
And to help even more people cut through some of the confusion “experts’” seem to want to perpetuate – we’ve created a brand-new “how to” guide.
Yes, Claim my FREE copy!
*Returns as of January 5 2023
(function() {
function setButtonColorDefaults(param, property, defaultValue) {
if( !param || !param.includes(‘#’)) {
var button = document.getElementsByClassName(“pitch-snippet”)[0].getElementsByClassName(“pitch-button”)[0];
button.style[property] = defaultValue;
}
}
setButtonColorDefaults(“#0095C8”, ‘background’, ‘#5FA85D’);
setButtonColorDefaults(“#0095C8”, ‘border-color’, ‘#43A24A’);
setButtonColorDefaults(“#fff”, ‘color’, ‘#fff’);
})()
More reading
- Own ASX lithium shares? Here’s the latest lithium price forecast
- Burning hot: The outlook for ASX 200 energy shares in 2023
- Is CSL the best ASX 200 share to buy in 2023?
- Buy these ASX 200 dividend shares when the market reopens: analysts
- 3 reasons to invest in the ASX 200 in 2023
Motley Fool contributor Tony Yoo has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.
from The Motley Fool Australia https://ift.tt/XLd35In
