Tag: Motley Fool

  • Why BWX, City Chic, Domain, and John Lyng shares are sinking today

    a woman looks exhausted and overwhelmed as she slumps forward into her hand while looking at her laptop screen.

    a woman looks exhausted and overwhelmed as she slumps forward into her hand while looking at her laptop screen.The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is on course to record another decline. In afternoon trade, the benchmark index is down 0.6% to 7,091.2 points.

    Four ASX shares that are falling more than most today are listed below. Here’s why they are dropping:

    BWX Ltd (ASX: BWX)

    The BWX share price is down a massive 48% to 33 cents. Investors have been hitting the sell button in response to a shocking business update. That update reveals that the Sukin skincare manufacturer missed its guidance in FY 2022, admitted to channel stuffing activities, downgraded its FY 2023 guidance, and revealed a growing mountain of debt.

    City Chic Collective Ltd (ASX: CCX)

    The City Chic share price is down 22% to 46 cents. The catalyst for this was another terrible update from the plus sized fashion retailer. City Chic revealed that trading conditions remain tough and it now expects to post a first half loss. This tough sales environment doesn’t bode well for the company given its huge inventory position. Management expects to finish the half with inventory of $168 million to $174 million. This is 50% more than its current market capitalisation.

    Domain Holdings Australia Ltd (ASX: DHG)

    The Domain share price is down over 7% to $2.64. This has been driven by the release of a trading update from the property listings company this morning. That update reveals that December month to date listings are down around 51% in Sydney and 37% in Melbourne. As a result of the challenging market environment, first half EBITDA is expected to be around $48 million.

    Johns Lyng Group Ltd (ASX: JLG)

    The Johns Lyng share price is down 11% to $6.05. This morning, the company revealed that its executive director and COO, Lindsay Barber, has sold 4 million shares. The share sale represents almost a third of Mr Barber’s prior holding.

    The post Why BWX, City Chic, Domain, and John Lyng shares are sinking today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

    One great investor says, “Be greedy when others are fearful.”

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    *Returns as of December 1 2022

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    Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Johns Lyng Group. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended BWX and Johns Lyng Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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  • Here’s how I’d invest $10,000 in ASX shares for 2023

    Four investors stand in a line holding cash fanned in their hands with thoughtful looks on their faces.

    Four investors stand in a line holding cash fanned in their hands with thoughtful looks on their faces.

    With a new year approaching, now could be a good time to look at making some new additions to your portfolio.

    If you have $10,000 available to invest in the share market, I would be investing it evenly across the ASX shares listed below.

    Here’s why I think they would be top options for investors in 2023:

    CSL Limited (ASX: CSL)

    The first ASX share I would invest $10,000 into in 2023 is CSL. This biotherapeutics giant has a world-class portfolio of therapies and vaccines that generate billions of dollars in revenue each year.

    But management never rests on its laurels. Each year, it invests in the region of 11% of its revenue back into research and development activities. This ensures that it has a pipeline of potentially lucrative products to support its future growth.

    In addition, the company never shies away from an acquisition if it believes it will add value. This was evident earlier this year when CSL completed the acquisition of Vifor Pharma for $16 billion. This has added some leading iron deficiency, dialysis, and nephrology products to its arsenal.

    And while the recent exit of its long-serving CEO adds an element of uncertainty, I’m confident the promotion of its COO, Dr Paul McKenzie, to the top job was a great move. After all, the company notes that Dr McKenzie has a “deep understanding of CSL’s strategy, culture and operations”. This should ensure that it is business as usual for CSL.

    Finally, I’m not alone in seeing value in the CSL share price. A recent note out of Citi reveals that its analysts have reiterated their buy rating and $340.00 price target. This implies more than 17% upside from current levels, which I believe offers a compelling risk/reward.

    Life360 Inc (ASX: 360)

    Another ASX share that I would buy for 2023 is Life360. It is the technology company behind the world’s leading real-time, location-sharing app, taken up by more than 40 million users.

    In addition, Life360 has acquired a couple of companies involved with wearables and items tracking recently. This provides it with cross-selling opportunities to its massive user base.

    But that’s not where it stops. Life360 is likely to continue leveraging its user base to disrupt other markets. It has done this previously with its roadside assistance offering, Driver Protect. Looking ahead, it has been tipped to enter “insurance, item & pet tracking, senior monitoring, home security and/or identity theft”, according to analysts at Bell Potter.

    Speaking of which, its analysts are very positive on the Life360 share price at its current level and have a buy rating and $9.00 price target. This suggests potential upside of more than 60% for investors over the next 12 months.

    It is also worth noting that Bell Potter doesn’t expect Life360 to be an unprofitable tech company for long. It is forecasting positive free cash flow from Q3 or Q4 of next year. It also believes that its cash balance won’t sink below US$50 million before then. Goldman Sachs has echoed this view recently.

    I also agree and believe that once profitability is achieved, it could support a material re-rating for its shares in 2023.

    The post Here’s how I’d invest $10,000 in ASX shares for 2023 appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

    FREE Guide for New Investors

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    Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has positions in CSL and Life360. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended CSL and Life360. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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  • Why did this ASX All Ordinaries share just crash 19%?

    woman with shopping bags sitting on steps with head in handswoman with shopping bags sitting on steps with head in hands

    The City Chic Collective Ltd (ASX: CCX) share price is plummeting on Tuesday after the All Ordinaries Index (ASX: XAO) company released a trading update for the fiscal year so far.

    The clothing retailer revealed it’s on track to post a small underlying earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation (EBITDA) loss for the first half of financial year 2023.

    Perhaps unsurprisingly, the market is reacting poorly to the news. After opening 15% lower at 50 cents, the City Chic share price plunged to a new 52-week low of 44 cents – 25% below its previous close.

    Fortunately, things have since picked up slightly. At the time of writing, the City Chic share price is back up at 48 cents – 18.64% lower than its previous close.

    Let’s take a closer look at the update that’s seemingly disappointed investors today.

    All Ordinaries retail share plummets on trading update

    The City Chic share price is being pummelled as Australia looks to the holiday season – a key period for the company’s earnings.

    The All Ordinaries company revealed that, since its last trading update in November, conditions have remained volatile amid lower-than-expected demand.

    As a result, it has upped its promotional activity to drive demand, and that’s compressed its gross margins.

    Meanwhile, its revenue for financial year 2023 so far is 7% lower than it was at the same point of last year – sitting at $157.1 million. However, it’s up around 38% on that of financial year 2021.

    Combined, the two factors are expected to lead City Chic to post a first-half EBITDA loss. Though, that’s subject to the coming fortnight’s trade, encompassing the remainder of the holiday season.

    More positively, the company’s confident its inventory will be at the lower end of previous guidance – $168 million to $174 million.

    The company will provide a more detailed trading update in mid-January following the end of the reporting period.

    City Chic share price snapshot

    This year has taken a major toll on the clothing retailer’s stock. The City Chic share price has tumbled 91% year to date. It’s also down 90% over the last 12 months.

    For comparison, the All Ordinaries Index has dropped 8% year to date and 5% since this time last year.

    The post Why did this ASX All Ordinaries share just crash 19%? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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    *Returns as of December 1 2022

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    Motley Fool contributor Brooke Cooper has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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  • Core Lithium share price has 25% upside: Macquarie

    A miner in a hardhat makes a sale on his tablet in the field.A miner in a hardhat makes a sale on his tablet in the field.

    The Core Lithium Ltd (ASX: CXO) share price is failing to gain a footing this morning despite being in a broker’s good books.

    Shares in the lithium project developer are retreating 4.2% to $1.03, placing the company’s share price 45% below its 52-week high. For comparison, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is glowing red on Tuesday, slipping 0.6% to the downside.

    Core Lithium shareholders might find solace in not being alone in their pain today. Many other ASX lithium shares such as Liontown Resources Ltd (ASX: LTR), Piedmont Lithium Inc (ASX: PLL), and Vulcan Energy Resources Ltd (ASX: VUL) are being tenderised on Tuesday.

    However, if analysts at Macquarie are right, buying Core Lithium shares now could prove opportunistic.

    Cash could soon be flowing

    Core Lithium is a popular ASX lithium share among retail investors. Based on the latest data, approximately 72% of Core Lithium shares are held by the general public. Whereas, that figure is below 60% for even Aussie lithium stalwarts Pilbara Minerals Ltd (ASX: PLS) and Allkem Ltd (ASX: AKE).

    The relatively low institutional ownership of Core Lithium could be a byproduct of its pre-revenue status. Right now, the company lacks cash-generating operations, which would probably drastically de-risk the investment case for institutions.

    Though, the team at Macquarie believes this could change in FY2024 and FY2025. According to its latest note, the broker is pencilling in expectations for solid free cash flow by the previously mentioned financial years.

    In light of its cash-producing forecasts, Macquarie has upped its rating on the Core Lithium share price to outperform. Accompanying the upgrade was a $1.30 price target for the lithium project developer — suggesting a potential 25% upside.

    Comparing the Core Lithium share price

    Despite the company’s absence of earnings, the Core Lithium share price has outperformed its profitable peers in 2022. As shown below, the $1.9 billion company has gained 65% throughout the year, surpassing even the likes of Minerals Resources Ltd (ASX: MIN).

    TradingView Chart

    While once richly valued, the Pilbara Minerals price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio has grown reasonably in recent times. Currently, the lithium miner is priced at around 21 times earnings. For Core Lithium to trade a similar valuation, it would need to generate roughly $90 million in post-tax profits.

    The post Core Lithium share price has 25% upside: Macquarie appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

    FREE Investing Guide for Beginners

    Despite what some people may say – we believe investing in shares doesn’t have to be overwhelming or complicated…

    For over a decade, we’ve been helping everyday Aussies get started on their journey.

    And to help even more people cut through some of the confusion “experts’” seem to want to perpetuate – we’ve created a brand-new “how to” guide.

    Yes, Claim my FREE copy!
    *Returns as of November 7 2022

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    Motley Fool contributor Mitchell Lawler has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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  • Top broker says this little-known ASX lithium share has 150% upside

    a small boy dressed in a superhero outfit soars into the sky with a graphic backdrop of a cityscape.a small boy dressed in a superhero outfit soars into the sky with a graphic backdrop of a cityscape.

    The Leo Lithium Ltd (ASX: LLL) share price could be in for a major pop after its recent drop, if one top broker is to be believed.

    Shares in the ASX newbie have tumbled 31% from its initial public offering (IPO) price, wherein new stock was handed out for 70 cents apiece. The company came to be after Firefinch Ltd (ASX: FFX) spun out its lithium assets in June.

    Right now, the Leo Lithium share price is trading at 48 cents.

    But its recent suffering might be short-lived. Let’s take a look at the whopping price target one top broker has put on the ASX lithium share.

    Could ASX newbie Leo Lithium shares soar 150%?

    The Leo Lithium share price could be in for a huge run on the ASX, according to Barrenjoey.

    The broker recently initiated coverage of the shiny new lithium share, slapping it with an overweight rating and a $1.20 price target, The Australian reports.

    That represents a potential 150% upside on its current price.

    The company holds one of the world’s largest undeveloped high-quality spodumene deposits – the Goulamina Lithium Project.

    The project is located in Mali. It’s to be developed by Leo Lithium and joint venture partner Ganfeng. Its production is expected to kick off in 2024.

    Drilling is also ongoing at the project. The ASX lithium stock recently announced drilling results from the project’s Danaya deposit, revealing high-grade, thick intercepts and multiple wide mineralised pegmatite zones.

    Leo Lithium held $71.5 million of cash at the end of the September quarter, while the Goulamina joint venture housed US$125.5 million. The company also has a US$40 million debt agreement with Gangfeng.

    The lithium share is currently trading for 9% less than it was after a disastrous tumble on its ASX float.

    In the meantime, however, it peaked at a record high of 81 cents. It also slumped to a record low of 36 cents.

    The post Top broker says this little-known ASX lithium share has 150% upside appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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    Motley Fool contributor Brooke Cooper has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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  • Should I buy NAB shares for 2023?

    Bank building with the word bank on it.

    Bank building with the word bank on it.

    National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB) shares have been a relatively good place to invest your money this year.

    Since the start of 2022, the banking giant’s shares have risen almost 3.5%.

    In addition, they have provided investors with total fully franked dividends of $1.51 per share. This equates to a 5% dividend yield, which stretches the total return to approximately 8.5%.

    As a comparison, over the same period, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is down 6.5% year to date. And even when including dividends, the total return for the index is still in negative territory at -2.4%.

    All in all, this means NAB shares have outperformed by almost 11% in 2022.

    Should you buy NAB shares for 2023?

    The good news is that despite their outperformance this year, one leading broker believes NAB shares can do it all again in 2023.

    A recent note out of Goldman Sachs reveals that its analysts have a buy rating and $35.41 price target on the bank’s shares. Based on its current share price of $30.33, this implies potential upside of almost 17% for investors over the next 12 months.

    Goldman is also expecting an attractive dividend yield of 5.7% in FY 2023, based on dividends of approximately $1.74 per share. This stretches the total potential return to over 22%.

    Double-digit returns to continue

    But the even better news is that Goldman Sachs believes double-digit returns will be possible for the next three years, not just in 2023. It commented:

    The major Australian banks have been in the midst of an EPS upgrade cycle, with 12-month forward EPS having increased by an average of 21% p.a. over the last two years. However, the outlook is now less optimistic, with 12-month forward EPS now only representing a c. 4% p.a. tailwind to share prices over the next three years. Despite this, the outlook for our two Buy stocks, WBC (on CL) and NAB, is better, and […] we think double digit total shareholder returns remains achievable over the next three years.

    All in all, this could make NAB shares a top option for anyone looking for banking sector exposure in 2023.

    The post Should I buy NAB shares for 2023? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

    FREE Beginners Investing Guide

    Despite what some people may say – we believe investing in shares doesn’t have to be overwhelming or complicated…

    For over a decade, we’ve been helping everyday Aussies get started on their journey.

    And to help even more people cut through some of the confusion “experts’” seem to want to perpetuate – we’ve created a brand-new “how to” guide.

    Yes, Claim my FREE copy!
    *Returns as of November 7 2022

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    Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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  • Why has the Lake Resources share price crashed 20% in a month?

    A woman with a sad face looks to be receiving bad news on her phone as she holds it in her hands and looks down at it.

    A woman with a sad face looks to be receiving bad news on her phone as she holds it in her hands and looks down at it.

    The Lake Resources N.L. (ASX: LKE) share price has been a poor performer in recent weeks.

    This has led to the lithium developer’s shares losing over 20% of their value since this time last month.

    Why is the Lake Resources share price under pressure?

    There are a couple of reasons for the weakness in the Lake Resources share price this month.

    The first is the outlook for lithium prices. There are concerns that prices may have peaked and could be heading materially lower over the next 18 months as supply grows.

    For example, Goldman Sachs is predicting the following for lithium carbonate pricing:

    • Lithium carbonate
      • 2022 US$59,331
      • 2023 US$53,300
      • 2024 US$11,000
      • 2025 US$11,000

    If this forecast proves accurate, then prices could have collapsed by the time Lake Resources is producing lithium from its Kachi project in Argentina.

    Short seller attack

    Also weighing on the Lake Resources share price could be doubts over the direct lithium extraction (DLE) technology that will be key to the Kachi project’s success.

    The team at J Capital believes that the DLE technology the company is looking to use could be “dramatically” underperforming expectations. It also suspects that there could be issues with quality given that no shipments have been announced.

    The investment firm commented:

    One of the first actions of Lake Resources’ (Lake) new CEO, David Dickson, was to contact Chinese-listed Sunresin (3000487 SZSE) to ask if Lake could explore the use of their direct lithium extraction (DLE) technology. We have confirmed this with multiple sources, including Sunresin. If Lake is reaching out to alternative technology suppliers and going back to the drawing board for its technological solution for DLE, then investors deserve to know about it. Lake should advise investors if Kachi brine will be evaluated by alternative DLE technology partners for the extraction of lithium.

    It appears there may also be a quality problem with the lithium concentrate produced at the pilot plant to date. We estimate the first 2,000 liters of lithium concentrate was produced by the end of October and still has not been shipped 30 days later. Lake has not provided an explanation for this delay.

    All in all, given the pricing and production uncertainty, it isn’t overly surprising to see the Lake Resources share price struggling right now.

    The post Why has the Lake Resources share price crashed 20% in a month? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

    FREE Investing Guide for Beginners

    Despite what some people may say – we believe investing in shares doesn’t have to be overwhelming or complicated…

    For over a decade, we’ve been helping everyday Aussies get started on their journey.

    And to help even more people cut through some of the confusion “experts’” seem to want to perpetuate – we’ve created a brand-new “how to” guide.

    Yes, Claim my FREE copy!
    *Returns as of November 7 2022

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    Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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  • Why is the BWX share price crashing 48% on Tuesday?

    A woman with bright yellow hair wearing a brightly patterned blouse reacts to big news that she's reading on her phone.

    A woman with bright yellow hair wearing a brightly patterned blouse reacts to big news that she's reading on her phone.

    The BWX Ltd (ASX: BWX) share price has made its long-awaited return to trade this morning.

    Unfortunately, it hasn’t been a happy one for the embattled personal care products company’s shares.

    In morning trade, the BWX share price is down a massive 48% to a record low of 32.5 cents.

    Why is the BWX share price crashing?

    Investors have been hitting the sell button today in response to the company’s disastrous business update.

    That update revealed that BWX recorded a statutory loss of $335.6 million in FY 2022, fell short of guidance for the year, and downgraded its FY 2023 guidance. The latter is particularly disappointing given that it raised funds on the back of this guidance at the end of June.

    But perhaps worst of all was the company admitting that it had been using a deceptive sales practice known as channel stuffing. This involves unnecessarily selling large volumes of products to distributors just before the end of the financial year to inflate sales and earnings figures for the period.

    And while the company has overhauled in management team and board room in response to this debacle, that hasn’t stopped the BWX share price from being sold off.

    A mountain of debt

    Investors may also have concerns over the company’s balance sheet. Management expects its net debt to peak at $95 million, which is now more than its market capitalisation following today’s decline.

    In addition, it still has a put option liability of at least $59 million (but potentially as much as $89 million) relating to its acquisition of Zoe Foster Blake’s s Go-To Skincare business.

    This doesn’t bode well for its debt covenants. In fact, the company expects to breach them at the end of January if they are not waived.

    In its accounts, the company commented:

    The Group had waivers in place in respect of certain of its required banking covenants which would otherwise have been breached as at 30 June 2022. Additional waivers were provided subsequent to that date, the latest of which expires on 31 January 2023 and the Group’s forecasts indicate that subsequent breaches are likely and therefore a further waiver or renegotiation of banking covenants will be required.

    All in all, these are tough times for the BWX share price and its shareholders.

    The post Why is the BWX share price crashing 48% on Tuesday? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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    Learn more about our Tripledown report
    *Returns as of December 1 2022

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    Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended BWX. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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  • Liontown share price tumbles despite important milestone

    A male investor wearing a blue shirt looks off to the side with a miffed look on his face as the share price declines.

    A male investor wearing a blue shirt looks off to the side with a miffed look on his face as the share price declines.

    The Liontown Resources Ltd (ASX: LTR) share price is under pressure on Tuesday.

    In morning trade, the lithium developer’s shares are down 5.5% to $1.42.

    Why is the Liontown share price falling?

    The Liontown share price is falling today after weakness in the lithium industry offset the release of a positive announcement.

    According to the release, Liontown has executed a binding power purchase agreement with Zenith Energy for the supply of electricity to the Kathleen Valley Lithium Project in Western Australia for a period of 15 years.

    The release notes that Zenith Energy has progressed the planning, engineering, and design works for the 95MW Hybrid Power Station at Kathleen Valley. This includes the order of long lead items such as the wind turbines.

    Impressively, with 46MW of emissions free power generation capacity, the 95MW hybrid power station is expected to be one of the largest off-grid wind-solar-battery storage renewable energy facilities in the mining industry in Australia.

    Another positive is that Liontown has secured approval for a $25 million guarantee facility from Export Finance Australia as part of the security package under the power purchase agreement. This reflects the project being identified as a critical minerals project under Austrade’s Critical Minerals Prospectus.

    ‘Important milestone’

    Liontown’s CEO, Tony Ottaviano, was pleased with the news and labelled it a important milestone. He said:

    Finalising the Power Purchase Agreement marks another important milestone for Liontown and the development of Kathleen Valley, paving the way for the construction of one of the largest off-grid wind-solar-battery storage facilities of its kind in the Australian resource sector. This reflects our unwavering commitment to delivering on our ESG credentials and establishing industry-leading carbon emissions from the outset.

    Zenith Energy’s commitment to deliver a high-capacity hybrid power solution includes incentives to produce renewable power over thermal power and, together with a renewable energy guarantee, sets us up to meet our renewable energy target of 60 per cent at start up. Securing the $25 million guarantee from Export Finance Australia assists to reinforce Liontown’s position as a new globally significant producer and exporter of lithium integral to the transition to a low-carbon future.

    The post Liontown share price tumbles despite important milestone appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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    Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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  • BHP shares ‘look expensive’: broker

    A young man sits at his desk with a laptop and documents with a gas heater visible behind him as though he is considering the information in front of him. about the BHP share priceA young man sits at his desk with a laptop and documents with a gas heater visible behind him as though he is considering the information in front of him. about the BHP share price

    The BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) share price has been one of the stronger performers within the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) over the last two months.

    Since 20 October 2022, BHP shares have gone up by around 20%, while the ASX 200 has only risen by 6%.

    But, a share price can only rise sustainably so much. It usually has to be backed up by some sort of business progression – a project getting closer to being finished, a new contract, profit growth, or something similar.

    One expert believes BHP has gone up too much.

    Sell rating on BHP shares

    Tony Langford from Seneca wrote on The Bull that the BHP share price looks “expensive” after rising to $46 on 15 December 2022, up from $37.36 on 31 October 2022.

    He pointed out that BHP has recently lobbed a revised takeover offer for OZ Minerals Limited (ASX: OZL) at $28.25 per share.

    His conclusion about BHP shares was:

    Investors may want to consider trimming their exposure to cushion any potential correction in the iron ore price.

    Is the OZ Minerals offer a big deal?

    Just over a month ago, BHP announced it had bumped up the offer for the copper miner.

    The resources giant said the offer represents the “best and final price” that the company is willing to offer, in the absence of a competing proposal.

    This offer of $28.25 represents an enterprise value of $9.6 billion for OZ Minerals. This offer was 13% higher than the first BHP offer and 49.3% higher than the OZ Minerals closing share price of $18.92 on 5 August 2022, which was before the first BHP offer.

    BHP is currently working on due diligence so that it can negotiate a binding offer.

    BHP chair Ken MacKenzie said:

    BHP’s proposal would provide value to BHP shareholders by increasing exposure to future facing commodities, attractive synergies and adding to our pipeline of growth options.

    BHP CEO Mike Henry added:

    BHP’s proposal represents a highly compelling offer for OZL shareholders, providing certainty at a time of macroeconomic uncertainty and market volatility, and increasing risks for the industry.

    The combination of BHP and OZL’s assets, skills and technical expertise provides a unique opportunity not available under separate ownership, with complementary resources including the Oak Dam exploration prospect and existing facilities within close proximity, backed by BHP’s strong balance sheet, capital discipline and commitment to sustainable development.

    Foolish takeaway

    The performance of the BHP share price from here, in the short-term, could be largely dependent on which direction the iron ore price goes. Time will tell if Tony Langford from Seneca is right to be cautious on the resources giant right now.

    The post BHP shares ‘look expensive’: broker appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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    Motley Fool contributor Tristan Harrison has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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