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ASX 200 shares are trading lower on Friday with the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) down 1.38%.

In the year to date, the benchmark index has delivered a slightly negative performance, down 0.29%.

One of the factors dragging it down is a significant drop in the share prices of the three major iron ore producers.

This is because these mega miners make up a significant proportion of the ASX 200 market cap.

How are ASX 200 iron ore shares performing in 2024?

In the year to date:

• Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO) share price is down 15.4%
• The BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) share price is down 16.5%
• The Fortescue Metals Group Ltd (ASX: FMG) share price is down 19%.

No prizes for guessing why.

As we all know, the iron ore price has fallen heavily in 2024 so far.

This is due to lower demand in China, which is historically the world’s biggest iron ore consumer, importing 71% of global iron ore exports in 2022.

That’s a big problem for us given we are the world’s biggest iron ore exporter, accounting for a 57% share of global exports in 2022.

In the year to date, the iron ore price has fallen from about US$142 per tonne to about US$105 per tonne today.

That’s a 26% decline in just two-and-a-half months.

This isn’t good for the three major iron ore miners, who are the key exporters of Australia. A falling iron ore price impacts the earnings and share prices of these ASX 200 giants.

One of the reasons the iron ore price is falling is because China’s property market is pretty much tanking.

What’s going on in China’s property market?

Average home sale prices rose almost 350% in the 15 years through to 2021 “and remain at significantly stretched levels relative to incomes” today, according to the International Monetary Fund.

The property boom occurred due to strong investment-driven demand from households, driven by massive savings, a mortgage lending boom, and limited investment alternatives.

Developers took on more and more debt to expand construction quickly, and local Chinese governments became increasingly reliant on property activity such as land sales to fill their coffers.

The IMF said real estate has become “ubiquitous as a form of collateral and household wealth” in China.

But now the market has changed.

The COVID recovery in China has been incredibly subdued, and in recent months, President Xi has sought to prick the property bubble by telling his people that homes are for living, not financial speculation.

Debt-laden developers are defaulting. In January, a Hong Kong court directed China’s once-largest developer, Evergrande, to liquidate because it couldn’t restructure $300 billion in liabilities (Reuters).

When developers are in trouble, half-built apartments sit dormant, demand for steel falls — as does demand for iron ore to make steel — and home values fall as people lose confidence and stop investing.

IMF economist Henry Hoyle notes that Chinese home prices have decreased only modestly, but this is partly because some cities have limited price declines through rules and guidance on listing prices.

Despite these controls on prices, the more important factor is that there is fear in the market. Arguably, that has as much impact on sentiment as falling prices.

We can see this in falling sales volumes. Hoyle says home buyers are fearful that developers don’t have the funding to complete projects anymore, and they fear prices will decline in the future.

Broader effects of falling home values on the Chinese economy

While Australia and other Western countries continue to battle high inflation, China is in deflation.

As the Wall Street Journal reported, Chinese consumer prices fell at their fastest rate in more than 14 years in January.

Falling property prices are likely contributing to deflation through the psychological ‘wealth effect’, which means when the value of people’s homes falls, they stop spending because they feel poorer.

Lower prices mean businesses aren’t making as much money. That means they need less labour, and can pay lower wages. In January, Bloomberg reported the biggest drop in new hire salaries in China on record.

But here’s the scariest stat relating to China’s property market downturn and its impact on the economy and also ASX 200 iron ore shares.

Property is 20% of China’s GDP

The IMF says property-related activities accounted for an estimated 20% of China’s gross domestic product (GDP) during its recent decades of rapid growth.

In a report published last month, the IMF explained:

About two thirds of this comes from real estate’s imputed portion of construction activity, and its upstream linkages to producers of metal, glass, cement, and the other goods and service inputs that are used to build housing.

Another third comes from real estate services, a sizeable portion of which comes from services connected to the stock of existing housing, for instance leasing and property management.

The impact on GDP could be larger due to declining demand for housing-related goods (furniture, appliances) as well as due to wealth effects.

Basically, 20% of China’s economy is in trouble right now, and that ain’t good for ASX 200 iron ore shares.

Trading Economics notes the recent National People’s Congress in China “failed to provide any significant support for the property market” and there’s been a slow start to China’s construction season this year.

Outlook for the iron ore price

As we reported yesterday, Goldman Sachs expects an average iron ore price of US$110 a tonne this year.

It is forecasting a fall to US$95 a tonne in 2025, US$93 a tonne in 2026, and US$92 a tonne in 2027.

Given the strong connection between the prices of ASX 200 iron ore shares and the iron ore commodity price, this appears not to bode well.

The post 3 ASX 200 shares at risk from the slowdown in China appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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More reading

• Brokers name 3 ASX shares to buy now
• What’s going so wrong for ASX 200 shares on Friday?
• Buy Rio Tinto and these ASX dividend shares now
• If you’d put $1m into shares vs property at the start of COVID, how much would you have now?
• Why are ASX copper shares having such a bumper day?

Motley Fool contributor Bronwyn Allen has positions in BHP Group. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Goldman Sachs Group. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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In afternoon trade, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is on course to end the week deep in the red. At the time of writing, the benchmark index is down a sizeable 1.1% to 7,631.3 points.

Four ASX shares that are falling more than most today are listed below. Here’s why they are dropping:

Pilbara Minerals Ltd (ASX: PLS)

The Pilbara Minerals share price is down 5.5% to $3.94. This follows broad weakness in the lithium industry on Friday, which has seen most lithium shares record sizeable declines. Not even an announcement that revealed an improvement in the price Pilbara Minerals is receiving for its lithium spodumene concentrate has been able to stop the rot today.

Syrah Resources Ltd (ASX: SYR)

The Syrah share price is down 20% to 55.5 cents. Investors have been selling this graphite producer’s shares after it announced the completion of another capital raising. Syrah has successfully completed a fully underwritten institutional placement and the accelerated institutional component of its 1 for 10.2 pro rata accelerated non-renounceable entitlement offer. This has raised $80 million at a fixed price of $0.55 per new share. That represents a 21% discount to its last close price.

Tabcorp Holdings Ltd (ASX: TAH)

The Tabcorp share price is down 6% to 72 cents. This follows news that after the gambling company’s CEO, Adam Rytenskild, has resigned. This has been caused by claims of “inappropriate and offensive language used by Mr Rytenskild in the workplace.” Though, the outgoing CEO said that he didn’t “recall making the alleged comment.” Maritana Partners has commenced a global search for a new managing director and CEO. In the meantime, the company’s chair, Bruce Akhurst, has agreed to take on additional duties as executive chairman with immediate effect.

Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC)

The Westpac share price is down 2% to $25.98. Investors have continued to sell Westpac and other ASX bank shares on Friday. The catalyst for this is likely to have been a broker note out of Macquarie on Thursday. Its analysts called time on the banking sector rally and put the equivalent of sell ratings on all of the big four banks. Macquarie now has an underperform rating on Westpac’s shares with a $26.00 price target. This is broadly in line with where its shares trade following two sessions of declines in a row.

The post Why Pilbara Minerals, Syrah Resources, Tabcorp, and Westpac shares are sinking today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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More reading

• Why are ASX investors so obsessed with dividends?
• What’s going so wrong for ASX 200 shares on Friday?
• Why is this ASX 300 battery materials stock crashing 20% today?
• This ASX 200 stock is sinking after its CEO quit amid ‘inappropriate and offensive language’ probe
• Are short sellers of Pilbara Minerals stock about to get stung?

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has positions in Westpac Banking Corporation. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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Most S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) oil stocks have lost ground over the past six months.

But not Ampol Ltd (ASX: ALD).

Despite retracing slightly from the 28 February record closing high, the Ampol share price is up an impressive 14% since 15 September. That’s almost three times the 5% gains posted by the ASX 200 over this same period.

As you’re likely aware, Ampol supplies Australia’s largest branded petrol and convenience network. The company also refines, imports and markets fuels and lubricants.

So, what’s sending this ASX 200 oil stock to new highs?

And has the window of opportunity closed, or is there still time to buy?

Why did the Ampol share price hit record highs?

Investors have been bidding up the Ampol share price over the past 12 months as the company continues to increase its earnings and sales volumes.

For its full 2023 results, released on 19 February, the ASX 200 oil stock reported a 2% year on year increase in earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) – excluding significant items – which reached $1.30 billion.

And the company’s total sales volumes leapt 17% from 2022 to an all-time high of 28.4 billion litres.

Also hitting new record highs, and pleasing passive income investors, was Ampol’s final fully franked dividend of $1.80 a share. That was up 16% from the $1.55 a share final dividend for 2022, which was itself a new record high at the time.

The ASX oil stock also paid an interim dividend of 95 cents per share for a full-year payout of $2.75 a share.

At the current share price of $38.36, Ampol stock trades on a fully franked trailing yield of 7.2%.

Is it too late to buy the ASX 200 oil stock?

The Ampol share price has slipped 2.7% since hitting the all-time closing high of $39.42 on 28 February.

But I don’t see any reason why it can’t reset that record high, and then some, in the months ahead.

With solid earnings and sales growth, and ongoing growth in dividends, there’s a lot to like about this ASX 200 oil stock.

And with Australia’s population growing rapidly amid surging migration levels, the domestic demand growth picture looks good.

If the Aussie economy can avoid a recession amid higher interest rates to tamp down inflation, I believe Ampol can deliver more earnings growth ahead.

And if we do dip into a recession, much of the company’s revenue is derived from fuel sales. While fuel demand would likely dip in a recession, most Aussies will still need petrol or diesel to get around.

And for those who’ve made the transition to electric vehicles, Ampol is also continuing to extend its EV charging network.

The evolving ASX oil stock forecasts it will have 300 charging bays in Australia and 150 charging bays in New Zealand by the end of 2024.

The post This soaring ASX 200 oil stock is near all-time highs. Is it too late to buy? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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More reading

• Is this surging ASX 200 stock an under-the-radar buy?
• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today
• Why Ampol, Calix, Collins Foods, and Propel shares are tumbling today
• Why is the Ampol share price tumbling 5% on Friday?
• How I’d invest $250 a month in ASX dividend shares to target a $24,000 annual second income

Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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I’ve owned National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB) shares for many years now. In fact, NAB was one of the first ASX 200 shares I ever bought. But this March, I’m seriously considering selling my NAB stock. 

Normally, I’m an investor who hates selling my shares. For me, selling doubles the mental efforts of stock market investing. It’s hard enough to find a company that you’d like to buy as well as the right share price to buy it at. And adding the worry over what price you’d sell at is an unnecessary increase in mental stress in my view.

Instead, I try to emulate the Warren Buffett maxim that “our favourite holding period is forever”.

However, this doesn’t always go to plan. I’ve had to sell many of my past investments before, usually due to miscalculations of a company’s intrinsic quality on my behalf.

I don’t believe I’ve made a mistake in buying and owning NAB shares for the many years that I have. I’ve enjoyed some decent capital appreciation on my NAB stock since my first purchase. As well as the generous, fully franked dividend income one expects from an ASX 200 bank share, of course.

Why am I considering selling my NAB stock then?

So my increasing discomfort with owning NAB stock right now stems from valuation concerns. The NAB share price has had a stellar few months. As recently as June last year, this ASX 200 bank was going for around $25 a share.

In the past few weeks though, those same shares have crashed through a series of new 52-week highs, most recently last Friday’s $35.12. That means that from June 2023 to March 2024, I’ve enjoyed a gain of almost 40%. Plus dividends.

That is a highly unusual return for an ASX bank stock. It’s quite common for most ASX banks to spend years sitting at the same share price. Check that out for yourself below:

Every time NAB stock has hit new 52-week highs in the past, it has, more often than not, come down to earth. Sometimes dramatically so. Could this time be different? Possibly. But I doubt it.

NAB, like all ASX banks, is a cyclical share. Investors have enjoyed far more meaningful returns in the past from dividends than capital growth.

So if I sell NAB shares this March, and then buy them back at a future point for a lower share price (and higher starting dividend yield), I’m guessing I’d probably be better off than just holding them.

As I began by stating, I don’t like selling my ASX shares. But NAB’s new highs have certainly got me questioning that wisdom.

The post Why I might be selling my NAB stock in March appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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More reading

• Why are ASX investors so obsessed with dividends?
• If you’d put $1m into shares vs property at the start of COVID, how much would you have now?
• Buyer beware! Why Macquarie just downgraded the big four ASX 200 banks
• How much passive income will I get from shares vs. property?
• Should you wait for a dip to buy ASX 200 bank shares?

Motley Fool contributor Sebastian Bowen has positions in National Australia Bank. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is having a tough finish to the week. In afternoon trade, the benchmark index is down a disappointing 1.1% to 7,627.6 points.

Four ASX shares that are not letting that hold them back are listed below. Here’s why they are rising:

Beach Energy Ltd (ASX: BPT)

The Beach Energy share price is up 2.5% to $1.70. This appears to have been driven by another rise in oil prices overnight. Traders have been bidding oil prices higher this week in response to news of attacks on Russian oil refineries. It isn’t just Beach Energy shares that are rising on Friday. The S&P/ASX 200 Energy index is defying the market weakness and is up 1.3% at the time of writing.

Clinuvel Pharmaceuticals Limited (ASX: CUV)

The Clinuvel share price is up a further 2% to $14.92. Investors have been buying this biopharmaceuticals company’s shares this week after it announced an on-market share buyback. Clinuvel is aiming to buy back up to 1.5 million shares over the next 12 months. This equates to approximately 3% of its outstanding share capital. Management advised that its decision reflects its view that the recent decline of market valuation is no longer commensurate with the performance and expected outlook for the company.

Deep Yellow Limited (ASX: DYL)

The Deep Yellow share price is up over 3% to $1.20. This morning, this uranium developer announced the completion of the first tranche of its placement. This has seen the company issue approximately 114.7 million shares to qualified, institutional, sophisticated, and professional investors at a price of $1.225 per new share. This represents a premium to where its shares were last trading. The proceeds will be used to advance the development of the Tumas Project. This includes the commencement of construction post final investment decision and securing debt financing.

EML Payments Ltd (ASX: EML)

The EML Payments share price is up 7% to $1.21. This follows news that the payments company has agreed to sell its loss-making Sentenial business. Investors appear pleased to see the back of the business, even though the selling price is half what EML paid for it in 2021. GoCardless is buying Sentenial for an enterprise value of 32.75 million euros (A$54.1 million). EML expects the sale to be earnings and cashflow accretive in the first year.

The post Why Beach, Clinuvel, Deep Yellow, and EML shares are charging higher today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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More reading

• Why is this ASX 300 uranium stock avoiding the market selloff and racing higher?
• 1 All Ords stock quietly crushing the ASX today
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Friday
• Why Arafura, Bubs, Clinuvel, and Superloop shares are racing higher today
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Thursday

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended EML Payments. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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The Lake Resources N.L. (ASX: LKE) share price is having another day to forget.

At the time of writing, the lithium developer’s shares are down 14% to a new multi-year low of 7.2 cents.

This means that its shares are down 47% since the close of play on 1 March.

Why is the Lake Resources share price sinking?

Today’s decline has been driven by a selloff in the lithium industry, which has seen most ASX lithium shares sink deep into the red today.

Here’s a quick summary of some of the declines:

• Core Lithium Ltd (ASX: CXO) shares have dropped 4%
• Liontown Resources Ltd (ASX: LTR) shares are down 7%
• Pilbara Minerals Ltd (ASX: PLS) shares have tumbled 5%
• Sayona Mining Ltd (ASX: SYA) shares are down 4.5%

This follows declines on Wall Street for lithium miners in response to a hotter than expected inflation reading, which reduced the chances of a rate hike in the near term. Investors may believe that electric vehicle demand will remain subdued until rates ease.

What else is weighing on its shares?

Investors have also been selling the company’s shares this month after it announced yet another capital raising.

Lake Resources received firm commitments to raise $15 million at 7 cents per new share. This was a significant 39.1% discount to where the Lake Resources share price traded at the time.

The company explained that it was raising funds while it seeks to find a partner for its Kachi lithium project in Argentina. It said:

The Offer enhances Lake’s balance sheet by providing additional working capital and financial flexibility during the strategic partnership selection process for Kachi. Lake is actively conducting outreach to a wide array of potential strategic partners including car and battery manufacturers, lithium producers, oil and gas companies, sovereign wealth funds and private equity. The strategic partnership process is scheduled to conclude in the second half of the year.

This process may not be as easy as you think based on the scoping study for the project. As I outline here, based on realistic lithium price assumptions, the project looks unlikely to offer a return that is sufficient to justify its construction.

In light of this, Lake Resources arguably needs a big rebound in lithium prices this year more than any other ASX lithium stock.

The post Why is the Lake Resources share price sinking again and down 47% since 1 March? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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More reading

• Why BHP, Brainchip, Lake Resources, and Yancoal shares are sinking today
• Why are Lake Resources shares crashing 20% on Tuesday?
• Why are Lake Resources shares in a trading halt?
• Why Cettire, Fletcher Building, Lake Resources, and Nick Scali shares are falling today
• Down 80% in a year why are Lake Resources shares tumbling again today?

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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It’s been a calamitous end to the trading week so far this Friday for the Australian share market and most ASX 200 shares.

At the time of writing, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) has tanked by a horrid 1.58%, pulling the index down from the 7,713 points it closed at yesterday to just 7,591.6 points at the time of writing.

This is the lowest the ASX 200 has been at in over a month. It’s also shaping up to be one of the worst days for ASX 200 shares in 2024 to date.

Predictably with a fall of this magnitude, we are seeing some massive sell-offs amongst the top ASX 200 blue chip shares.

Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) shares are presently down 1.6% at $114.37 each. This bank has now lost close to 6% since its new record high of $121.54 a share that we saw just last Friday.

Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC) and ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: ANZ) are both faring even worse, currently nursing losses of over 2%.

The BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) share price has shed 1.88% down to $42.25, while CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL) shares have tanked by 1.44% down to $278.57 each.

Not a good day to be invested in ASX 200 shares, to say the least.

So what on earth is going on here that is prompting these dramatic, weekend-ruining share price falls?

Why are ASX 200 shares cratering on Friday?

Well, these steep falls seem to be a result of some fresh economic data in the United States.

According to CNBC, The United States’ February producer price index, which is a measure of wholesale inflation, came in with a 0.6% increase for the month.

Most economists reportedly expected a rise of 0.3%, so this shows that American inflation remained significantly hotter than expected last month.

This led to a spike in US government bond yields and a slump for the American share market in overnight trading.

Much of the rally that we’ve seen in US markets over the past few months (and the Australian market by extension) has arguably been fuelled by expectations that inflation would continue to trend lower over 2024, leading to global interest rate cuts.

This latest data seems to pour cold water on that notion. As such, investors are clearly panicking over the prospects of ‘higher for longer’ interest rates today.

For anyone wondering how this American data affects the ASX, it’s important to keep in mind that our own Reserve Bank of Australia (RA) will find it harder to justify interest rate cuts here in Australia if the US Federal Reserve is not winding back its own high interest rates.

So a very depressing end to the trading week (at least so far) for ASX 200 shares. Let’s hope the picture gets brighter next week.

The post What’s going so wrong for ASX 200 shares on Friday? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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More reading

• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Friday
• If you’d put $1m into shares vs property at the start of COVID, how much would you have now?
• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today
• Why are ASX copper shares having such a bumper day?
• 2 powerful blue chip ASX 200 shares to buy for your portfolio

Motley Fool contributor Sebastian Bowen has positions in CSL. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended CSL. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended CSL. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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Telstra Group Ltd (ASX: TLS) shares are a popular option for income investors.

Historically, the telco giant has been one of the biggest dividend payers on the Australian share market.

And while its dividends took a hit during the 2010s with the arrival of the NBN, they recently returned to growth.

But will this trend continue or is this just a false dawn for income investors? Let’s find out what the market is expecting.

Telstra dividend forecast

The good news for investors is that the market believes it is onwards and upwards for the company’s dividend in the coming years.

As a reminder, Telstra increased its fully franked dividend to 17.5 cents per share in FY 2023.

Looking ahead, Goldman Sachs is forecasting an increase to 18 cents per share this financial year. Based on the current Telstra share price of $3.79, this will mean a 4.75% dividend yield.

The increases are expected to continue in FY 2025, with Goldman expecting the telco to reward its shareholders with a 19 cents per share dividend. This represents a very attractive 5% dividend yield based on current prices.

Finally, in FY 2026, another increase is expected from analysts at Goldman Sachs. The broker has pencilled in a 20 cents per share dividend from Telstra. If this proves accurate, it will mean a generous 5.3% dividend yield for income investors.

In summary, Goldman expects:

• FY 2024 – 18 cents per share
• FY 2025 – 19 cents per share
• FY 2026 – 20 cents per share

Are Telstra shares a buy?

As well as forecasting dividend increases, Goldman Sachs believes that Telstra shares can increase in meaningfully in value.

The broker currently has a buy rating and $4.55 price target on its shares. This implies potential upside of 20% for investors.

And if we include the forecast dividends over the next 12 months, a total return of approximately 25% could be on the cards for investors buying at today’s price.

The post Here’s the Telstra dividend forecast through to 2026 appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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More reading

• What might an Optus sale mean for Telstra shares?
• Top brokers name 3 ASX shares to buy today
• Here’s why this broker just upgraded Telstra shares
• Is Telstra stock a buy right now?
• 3 ASX dividend shares to buy with ~5% yields for an income boost

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Goldman Sachs Group. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Telstra Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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Brickworks Limited (ASX: BKW) shares will be on watch next week.

That’s because the building products company will be releasing its half-year results on Thursday 21 March.

And with the company’s shares up almost 30% over the last 12 months, expectations are likely to be high.

But what exactly is the market expecting? Let’s find out.

Brickworks half-year preview

Unfortunately, I don’t have any half-year estimates to work with, but we can look at full-year expectations and go from there.

For example, the team at Bell Potter is forecasting a modest decline in revenue to $1,160.8 million for FY 2024.

So, with Brickworks’ revenue coming in at $583.9 million for the first half of FY 2023, the market may be looking for something slightly softer than this figure next week.

Here’s where it gets interesting.

Bell Potter is forecasting a huge decline in earnings in FY 2024 from Brickworks.

It has pencilled in EBITDA of $167.1 million and underlying net profit after tax of $60.3 million. This will be down 78.7% and 88.1%, respectively, year on year.

Based on this, it is quite apparent that a significant drop in first-half earnings is expected to be reported next week.

But don’t panic. It’s not because the company is having a nightmare year. Instead, it’s largely because Brickworks benefited from significant property sales from its joint venture with Goodman Group (ASX: GMG) last year.

That segment contributed $453 million of EBITDA thanks to the sale of Oakdale East Stage 2 into the Industrial JV Trust.

In addition, the broker is expecting the company to report a non-cash value impairment for the year.

What about dividends from Brickworks shares?

The good news for shareholders is that the broker doesn’t expect Brickworks’ profit decline to end its long run of dividend increases. The broker is forecasting a 67 cents per share dividend in FY 2024, up from 65 cents per share a year earlier.

This is likely to mean a fully franked interim dividend of 24 cents per share is declared next week.

The post Own Brickworks shares? Here’s your half-year results preview appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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More reading

• Is it too late to buy Brickworks stock?
• Why did the Brickworks share price just smash another record?
• Seeking retirement income from ASX bank shares at 52-week highs? What I’d buy instead
• How did the Brickworks share price just hit an all-time high?
• Buying Soul Patts shares? Here’s what you’re really buying

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Brickworks and Goodman Group. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Brickworks. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Goodman Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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If you want to make some buy and hold investments to grow your wealth, but don’t like stock picking, then don’t worry.

The solution could be exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which allow you to buy groups of shares in one go. This means you can diversify a portfolio quickly and reduce your risk.

But which ASX ETFs could be good buy and hold options? Listed below are five that could be worth further investigation:

Betashares Global Uranium ETF (ASX: URNM)

If you believe that nuclear power is the future, then the Betashares Global Uranium ETF could be a good option. It provides exposure to a portfolio of leading companies in the global uranium industry. These companies will be well-placed to benefit over the next decade if the forecast strong demand for the chemical element proves accurate.

BetaShares NASDAQ 100 ETF (ASX: NDQ)

If you want to invest in the best of the best, then the BetaShares NASDAQ 100 ETF could be the one for you. It offers investors access to the 100 largest non-financial companies on the Nasdaq index. These are global behemoths such as Alphabet, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla.

ETFS Battery Tech & Lithium ETF (ASX: ACDC)

The ETFS Battery Tech & Lithium ETF could be a great long-term option if you believe that electric vehicles will dominate in the future. It invests in the leading companies in the battery technology and lithium industries. This includes miners, battery producers, and electric vehicle manufacturers.

VanEck Vectors Morningstar Wide Moat ETF (ASX: MOAT)

If you like the idea of investing in the style of Warren Buffett, then the VanEck Vectors Morningstar Wide Moat ETF could be the way to do it. This ASX ETF focuses on companies that the Oracle of Omaha would normally buy. These are companies with attractive valuations, strong business models, and sustainable competitive advantages.

Vanguard Australian Shares Index ETF (ASX: VAS)

Investors that want to invest locally over the long-term might want to consider buying the Vanguard Australian Shares Index ETF. It is an index-based fund that aims to track the ASX 300 index. This is home to Australia’s leading 300 listed companies and includes giants such as BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) and minnows such as Adairs Ltd (ASX: ADH).

The post 5 ASX ETFs to buy and hold for 10 years appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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More reading

• Popular BetaShares ASX ETFs reveal half-yearly results
• Selling your investment property due to land tax hikes? 5 ASX shares I’d buy with the proceeds
• Is the Nasdaq in a dotcom-style bubble?
• Buy these ASX ETFs for a second income
• How much would I have now if I’d invested $10,000 in Vanguard Australian Shares Index ETF (VAS) a year ago?

Suzanne Frey, an executive at Alphabet, is a member of The Motley Fool’s board of directors. Randi Zuckerberg, a former director of market development and spokeswoman for Facebook and sister to Meta Platforms CEO Mark Zuckerberg, is a member of The Motley Fool’s board of directors. Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has positions in BetaShares Nasdaq 100 ETF. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Adairs, Alphabet, Apple, BetaShares Nasdaq 100 ETF, Global X Battery Tech & Lithium ETF, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has recommended the following options: long January 2026 $395 calls on Microsoft and short January 2026 $405 calls on Microsoft. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Adairs and BetaShares Nasdaq 100 ETF. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Alphabet, Apple, Betashares Global Uranium Etf, Global X Battery Tech & Lithium ETF, Meta Platforms, Nvidia, and VanEck Morningstar Wide Moat ETF. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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