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As we head into the last couple of months of the year, the ASX dividends declared throughout reporting season are drying up.

But there are still some stragglers in the All Ordinaries Index (ASX: XAO) with recently declared dividends on the table.

Though these dividends won’t be around for much longer. Let’s take a look at two ASX All Ords shares going ex-dividend next week.

Autosports Group Ltd (ASX: ASG)

The first cab off the rank is Autosports Group, which will be turning ex-dividend on Monday. This means that today will be the last day to lock in the company’s recently-declared final dividend of 9 cents per share, fully franked.

Investors on the company’s share register by the closing bell today can pencil in a payment date of 15 November.

Weighing in with a market capitalisation of around $410 million, Autosports operates one of Australia’s largest networks of luxury and prestige car dealerships. It represents 20 luxury and prestige brands, including the likes of Rolls-Royce, Lamborghini, Maserati, and McLaren.

Autosports delivered record profits in FY22 as normalised net profit before tax came in 23% higher than the prior year at $93 million.

New vehicle orders exceeded deliveries by 25% as demand exceeded supply. Stemming from COVID, vehicle supply has been impacted by a shortage in semiconductors and wiring looms along with transport delays.  

But demand remains elevated, with customer new vehicle orders up 66% since the end of 2021. The company noted that orders were heavily skewed to high-value new vehicles.

Across the financial year, Autosports declared total dividends of 16 cents per share, fully franked, up 76% from total dividends of 9 cents in FY21. 

The ASX All Ords share noted the increase in dividends reflected its strong financial position and the board’s confidence in Autosports’ cash flow generation and continued margin accretion.

Based on current prices, Autosports shares are turning heads with a trailing dividend yield of 7.8%. Adding in franking credits revs this yield even higher to 11.1%.

Brickworks Limited (ASX: BKW)

Hot on Autosports’ heels is fellow ASX All Ords share Brickworks, which will be going ex-dividend the following day on Tuesday.

As of Tuesday, Brickworks shares will no longer be trading with rights to the company’s latest final dividend of 41 cents per share, fully franked.

Brickworks doesn’t have a dividend reinvestment plan (DRP). So, eligible shareholders will have no choice but to receive this payment in cash on 23 November.

Brickworks handed in its FY22 results last month, revealing a 28% uplift in revenue which came in at $1.1 billion.

But the bottom line is where the company truly shined. It delivered underlying net profit after tax (NPAT) of $746 million, up a whopping 159% from the prior year.

The earnings contribution from the company’s property division was a standout. In particular, its portfolio of industrial property in Sydney and Brisbane experienced a strong uplift in valuation on the back of growing demand for logistics and warehousing space.

Despite the surge in profits, Brickworks raised its annual dividends by just 3% to 63 cents per share. 

This is because these profits were primarily driven by valuation uplifts, which are simply on paper rather than cash. In fact, Brickworks’ operating cashflows went backwards in FY22, slumping 7% to $130 million.

Nonetheless, Brickworks maintains an impeccable dividend record. The ASX 200 share has maintained or increased its annual dividends for 46 years.

At current levels, Brickworks shares are printing a trailing dividend yield of 2.9%. Including franking credits, this yield grosses up to 4.1%.

The post Here are 2 ASX All Ords shares going ex-dividend next week appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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More reading

• No savings at 35? I’d buy cheap ASX shares to try and retire rich
• When it comes to ASX 200 dividend shares, is there any such thing as truly passive income?
• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today
• Why Baby Bunting, Brickworks, Core Lithium, and Dreadnought Resources are pushing higher
• These 3 ASX shares hold top spot as my favourite dividend deliverers

Motley Fool contributor Cathryn Goh has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Brickworks. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Brickworks. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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I think there are a number of S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) shares that could be worth owning, some with the long term in mind.

In my opinion, the Xero Limited (ASX: XRO) share price is at a great level for a long-term investment.

What’s Xero? It’s one of the largest accounting software providers in the world. One of the most important things about this business is that all of its software is online only. That makes it very accessible. Anyone can use it anywhere in the world, at any time.

It has been a strong performer over the last decade. In the past 10 years, it has risen by around 1,550%.

But, the recent volatility experienced by the market caused by inflation and higher interest rates could have opened up a buying opportunity for a business that still has a long-term growth plan.

I’ll explain why I like it.

Strong revenue outlook

Xero’s revenue has grown enormously over the years. In May 2014, the business passed NZ$100 million in annualised subscription revenue, while full-year operating revenue for the year to March 2014 was NZ$70.1 million.

In FY22, being the year to March 2022, operating revenue increased by 29% to NZ$1.1 billion and annualised monthly recurring revenue (AMRR) grew by 28% to NZ$1.2 billion.

The company is able to grow revenue in two main ways.

Its total subscriber numbers continue to rise — in FY22 it went up 19% to 3.3 million. It’s expanding globally, paying particular attention to places like the UK and Canada, which are even bigger markets than Australia. It’s these regions that could be important drivers for the Xero share price.

Xero can also grow its average revenue per user (ARPU), which improved by 7% to NZ$31.36 in FY22. I think the ARPU can continue to rise considering Xero recently implemented price increases in Australia, the UK and New Zealand.

The ASX 200 tech share already has some revenue growth baked in for FY23 because new subscribers during FY22 will pay the full 12 months of subscription fees in FY23.

I think revenue growth will be a key driver for the Xero share price in the next few years.

Excellent subscriber loyalty

One of the best reasons to like a company like Xero is that the monthly subscription generates regular cash flow.

Xero’s service is appreciated by its subscribers, which can be seen by the very low churn rate. In the second half of FY22, its churn rate was reported to be 0.9%. That means it lost less than 1% of its subscribers. This is useful for building its annualised revenue and not needing to win as many subscribers to keep growing its total subscriber number.

Having loyal customers that love the service also gives Xero more scope to pass on price increases and not lose much demand.

Strong margins

I think one of the best things about Xero is its gross profit margin. It’s so high, and rising, that most of Xero’s revenue translates into profit, which can then be used to spend on improving the business, such as sales and marketing, or product design and development.

In FY19, the ASX 200 share had a gross profit margin of 83.6%. In FY21, the gross profit margin had improved to 86%. In FY22, the gross profit margin was 87.3%.

While investors aren’t seeing how strong some of its other profit margins could be yet (like the net profit after tax), I think one day we will see it.

For now, the company is investing huge amounts into growth. But, eventually, that investing will slow and the strong gross profit margin will help other profit lines such as the earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) as well.

Better valuation

I think investing is about finding good investments at a decent price, then being patient and holding it.

I’ve outlined why I think that Xero is a great business. In terms of the price, the Xero share price is now a lot cheaper. It’s down close to 50% this year, so it’s a lot better value, in my opinion.

I’d be very happy to own this business until 2030. It’s still seeing lots of growth opportunities, which is why it’s investing so much to capture that growth. I think it’s a good sign that this globally focused business is still striving to become a lot bigger.

The post Why I’d buy and hold this ASX 200 share until 2030 appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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More reading

• How I’d build a portfolio by investing in top ASX shares now
• 3 excellent ASX 200 growth shares experts rate as buys
• Goldman Sachs names 2 quality ASX tech shares to buy right now
• These 3 ASX shares have halved this year. I’d buy 2 of them: advisor
• The Xero share price just hit a new 52-week low. Is it time to buy?

Motley Fool contributor Tristan Harrison has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Xero. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Xero. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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The Medibank Private Ltd (ASX: MPL) share price has been having a tough month.

Since the start of October, the private health insurer’s shares have lost 17% of their value.

This has been driven by a “cyber incident” that has seen the data of millions of patients stolen by a hacker.

Is the Medibank share price weakness a buying opportunity?

According to analysts at Citi, investors might want to give Medibank a miss for the time being.

A note from Thursday reveals that its analysts have downgraded the company’s shares to a neutral rating and slashed the price target on them by 25% to $3.00.

Based on the current Medibank share price of $2.87, this implies potential upside of 4.5% for investors.

However, the broker doesn’t feel this upside offers a good enough risk/reward to recommend it as a buy, particularly given the uncertainty hanging over the company.

What did the broker say?

Citi notes that the impact from the cyber incident is “still very uncertain” and that “consumer sentiment hard to gauge.”

Nevertheless, it has revised its earnings estimates lower for the coming years on the belief that policyholder growth will suffer from this development.

The broker explained:

Impact still very uncertain, consumer sentiment hard to gauge. While it is clear that a very significant data breach has occurred, the full impact of the cyber-attack on Medibank still remains uncertain. Questions therefore hang over the remainder of its strategy and it is withdrawing its policyholder guidance for FY23E. Key considerations from here will be the precise nature of the impact and the reaction of consumers to it, which is hard to gauge. This could see the share price move in either direction, but the extent of the current uncertainty moves us to Neutral, lowering our target price to A$3.00. Pulling back our policyholder growth assumptions and marking to market, we lower EPS FY23E: -6%; FY24E: -10%; FY25E: -12%.

The post Citi downgrades Medibank share price and slashes target by 25% appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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More reading

• Here are the 3 most heavily traded ASX 200 shares on Thursday
• Is the NIB share price benefitting from Medibank’s woes?
• Here are the 3 most heavily traded ASX 200 shares on Wednesday
• Why Codan, Coles, Medibank, and Pilbara Minerals shares are sinking
• Medibank share price plunges 15% as cyberattack bites into outlook

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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Many investors will not need reminding that 2022 has been a distressing time to own technology shares.

Most have fallen so much that they will need to become multibaggers in the next market recovery for them to return to the dizzying heights of 2021 and 2020.

The trouble is, how can you tell which ones have a genuine chance of such a resurgence and which stocks are just duds?

One clue could be to see if the people who run the business are buying the shares.

Insiders like directors and executives could be selling their shares for many different reasons — buy a new house, pay for a new car, repay loans, pay the kids’ private school fees. But the theory is that there can only be one reason why they would buy. 

It’s that they think the share price will head up.

After all, why would these presumably smart people, who have access to the inside machinations of the business, risk their own money unless they thought it was headed for a bright future?

What’s doing with Aussie Broadband shares?

One investor asked Shaw and Partners portfolio manager James Gerrish what he thought about buying Aussie Broadband Ltd (ASX: ABB) shares.

The internet provider has helplessly watched its stock price plunge 60% since Easter. Is it in terminal decline or does it have prospects of a recovery?

“It has indeed been a tough period for Aussie Broadband, with a number of earnings downgrades sending the stock down,” Gerrish told a Market Matters Q&A.

But Gerrish has noticed a positive signal from its ASX disclosures.

“Following last month’s result and subsequent share price decline, it is worth highlighting that all of Aussie Broadband’s directors have bought stock in the market since — clearly a very good sign.”

Managing director Phillips Britt, chair Adrian Fitzpatrick, board members Michael Omeros and Richard Dammery have all bought more Aussie Broadband shares over the past few weeks. 

No executives or directors have sold since early March.

Gerrish’s team is bullish after the market update last week.

“On Friday they reconfirmed FY23 guidance and from speaking to management post their FY22 result, the guidance we believe could well be on the conservative side,” he said.

“Our Emerging Companies Portfolio already holds a large 8% exposure to Aussie Broadband hence we are not likely to increase this exposure, but we do still like the stock at current levels and would in all likelihood buy if we had no position.”

The post Buy this ASX share that all its directors have been snapping up: expert appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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More reading

• Which ASX 200 shares could benefit from the federal budget?
• Which ASX All Ords shares could perform well in a recession?
• Aussie Broadband share price is ‘quite cheap for what it is’: expert

Motley Fool contributor Tony Yoo has positions in Aussie Broadband Limited. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Aussie Broadband Limited. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Aussie Broadband Limited. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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The Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) share price will be one to watch on Friday.

This follows the release of the investment bank’s half-year results this morning.

Macquarie share price on watch after earnings beat

• Net operating income up 11% over the prior corresponding period to $8,641 million
• Total operating expenses up 11% to $5,613 million
• Profit after tax up 13% to $2,305 million
• Interim dividend up 10% to $3.00 per share

What happened during the half?

For the six months ended 30 September, Macquarie reported an 11% increase in net operating income to $8,641 million and a 13% increase in profit after tax to $2,305 million.

One of the key drivers of this growth was the Commodities and Global Markets (CGM) business, which delivered a 15% increase in profit contribution to $1,996 million. This reflects a strong risk management contribution across the platform, particularly from the Gas and Power, Resources and Global Oil businesses, due to increased client hedging activity.

Also performing strongly was the Macquarie Asset Management (MAM) business, which delivered a 28% increase in profit contribution to $1,402 million. This was driven by investment-related income, primarily due to the timing of asset realisations in the green energy sector.

Another highlight was the Banking and Financial Services (BFS) business, which reported a 20% increase in profit contribution to $580 million. This reflects growth in the loan portfolio and total BFS deposits, improved margins, and lower credit impairment charges.

One disappointment was the performance of the Macquarie Capital business, which posted a 12% decline in its profit contribution to $595 million. Management notes that fee and commission income was down on a strong prior corresponding period reflecting weakening market conditions, with operating expenses also higher than the prior corresponding period.

How does this compare to expectations?

The good news for the Macquarie share price today is that this result appears to have beaten the market’s expectations.

According to a note out of Goldman Sachs, its analysts were expecting Macquarie to report a profit of $2,183 million and the market consensus estimate was $2,157 million.

Management commentary

Macquarie’s managing director and CEO, Shemara Wikramanayake, said:

Macquarie’s businesses continued to perform well against a backdrop of more challenging market conditions, reflecting the diversity of our activities and ongoing focus on prudent risk management. We continue to adapt to meet our clients’ needs.

Looking ahead, Wikramanayake remains positive on the company’s medium term outlook. She said:

Macquarie remains well-positioned to deliver superior performance in the medium term. This is due to our deep expertise in major markets; strength in business and geographic diversity and ability to adapt the portfolio mix to changing market conditions; an ongoing program to identify cost saving initiatives and efficiency; ongoing technology spend across the Group; a strong and conservative balance sheet; and a proven risk management framework and culture.

The post Macquarie share price on watch after first-half earnings beat appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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More reading

• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Friday
• 22 high-yield ASX dividend shares Wilsons is targeting
• Is the Macquarie share price a buy ahead of the bank’s results on Friday?
• Own Macquarie shares? Here’s what to expect from the bank’s half-year results
• Broker says these ASX dividend shares are buys this month

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Macquarie Group Limited. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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If you’re searching for dividend shares to buy, then the two listed below could be worth looking at.

Both have been named as buys by analysts at Morgans and tipped to provide big yields. Here’s what you need to know:

Dexus Industria REIT (ASX: DXI)

The first ASX dividend share that Morgans rates as a buy is Dexus Industria. It is an industrial and office property company.

The broker believes that Dexus Industria is well-placed for growth thanks to strong demand in the industrial market.

Morgans currently has an add rating and $3.25 price target on the company’s shares. It commented:

DXI’s key industrial markets remain robust with the outlook for solid rental growth backed by strong tenant demand. The development pipeline also provides near and medium term upside potential. A key focus will be the leasing up of the business park assets and a potential divestment could be a positive catalyst. While the portfolio remains well positioned we acknowledge there will be near-term uncertainty around interest rates.

In respect to dividends, the broker is forecasting dividends per share of 16.4 cents in FY 2023 and 16.9 cents in FY 2024. Based on the current Dexus Industria share price of $2.63, this will mean yields of 6.2% and 6.4%, respectively.

Incitec Pivot Ltd (ASX: IPL)

Another ASX dividend share that Morgans rates as a buy is Incitec Pivot. It is a manufacturer and distributor of industrial explosives, industrial chemicals, and fertilisers to the agriculture and mining industries.

Morgans believes the company is positioned to benefit from high fertiliser prices and the economic recovery. It also sees positives from its demerger plans.

The broker has an add rating and $4.45 price target on the company’s shares. It said:

With fertiliser prices holding at historically high levels and possibly moving higher over coming months given Russia’s invasion of the Ukraine, which is increasing gas prices, soft commodity prices and impacting fertiliser supply chains, the fundamentals for IPL are very positive. It is also benefiting from favourable seasonal conditions in Australia. It also has strong exposure to an economic recovery through its explosives business (solid demand for resources and Q&C will benefit from US stimulus packages). IPL believes that its demerger plans of its Fertilisers (Incitec Pivot Fertilisers) and Explosives (Dyno Nobel) businesses to create two separately listed companies on the ASX will create further value for shareholders.

As for dividends, Morgans is expecting fully franked dividends per share of 25 cents in FY 2022 and 19 cents in FY 2023. Based on the current Incitec Pivot share price of $3.64, this will mean yields of 6.9% and 5.2%, respectively.

The post Morgans names 2 ASX dividend shares to buy with big yields appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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More reading

• 4 battered ASX 200 shares that are ‘obvious M&A targets’: expert
• Experts name 2 high yield ASX dividend shares to buy
• Broker names 2 ASX dividend shares to buy with 6%+ yields
• Macquarie reveals ASX 200 shares ‘more likely to outperform in a bear market rally’

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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This article was originally published on Fool.com. All figures quoted in US dollars unless otherwise stated.

This article was originally published on Fool.com. All figures quoted in US dollars unless otherwise stated.

What happened

Shares of Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META) were trading down 22% at 11:35 a.m. on Thursday after the company delivered third-quarter financial results. The social media giant beat the Street’s revenue estimates but missed on earnings. 

Based on analysts’ comments following the earnings report, the problem is not so much the weak numbers as management’s plan to continue aggressively investing in growth initiatives, such as the metaverse, instead of firming up the bottom line.

So what

After posting a 1% year-over-year increase in revenue last quarter, Meta saw revenue decline 4% this quarter. Wall Street is looking at the slowing economy and advertising market, which is what social media companies use to make money, and not seeing much growth over the next year. That’s why the stock is down 70% this year, in a nutshell.

The stock would probably be holding up much better if management were prioritizing profits over investments in artificial intelligence and the metaverse. But that’s not the way CEO Mark Zuckerberg runs the company, and a long-term investor shouldn’t want it any other way.

Instead of pulling back, the company said it would spend up to $33 billion in capital expenditures next year, which is roughly the same as previous guidance. Wall Street didn’t want to hear that, especially after earnings per share (EPS) fell 49% year over year in the quarter.

Now what

On the earnings call, Zuckerberg mentioned that engagement trends have been positive across the family of apps, including Instagram and WhatsApp. He also noted the company can still “meaningfully” grow operating income over the long term, while still making investments in AI and Reality Labs (e.g., the metaverse and virtual reality).  

The stock was already cheap on a price-to-earnings basis going into earnings, and now it’s 22% cheaper. What’s certain is that with over 3 billion monthly active people across the family of apps, Meta is not a worthless company. Revenue growth will pick up in a healthier economy, when advertisers will feel more comfortable opening up their wallets.

This article was originally published on Fool.com. All figures quoted in US dollars unless otherwise stated.

The post Why Meta Platforms stock was down more than 20% today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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More reading

• Batten down the hatches as RBA may hit households with ‘supersized’ interest rate hike on Melbourne Cup day
• Why were Meta and Amazon stocks falling today?
• Tough year for leading global growth fund laid bare with brutal fall in tech stocks
• 2 reasons Amazon is a Warren Buffett stock
• Here’s how Meta Platforms plans to disrupt Apple’s and Google’s smartphone empires

John Ballard has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Randi Zuckerberg, a former director of market development and spokeswoman for Facebook and sister to Meta Platforms CEO Mark Zuckerberg, is a member of The Motley Fool’s board of directors. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Meta Platforms, Inc. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Meta Platforms, Inc. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

This article was originally published on Fool.com. All figures quoted in US dollars unless otherwise stated.

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After a tough year, more than one expert reckons ASX shares will follow the historical pattern and shoot upwards heading into Christmas.

The reasoning is that the market can finally see the light at the end of the tunnel. There is optimism that inflation can be tamed and interest rises could slow or stop sometime next year.

Considering this, Shaw and Partners portfolio manager James Gerrish was recently asked for his best stocks to buy to take advantage of the Santa rally:

A warning before the picks

As a preamble, Gerrish reminded investors that short-term predictions are fraught with danger.

“This is a scary question to answer because with potentially high returns comes high risk,” he said in a Market Matters Q&A.

Gerrish said 10 days ago he would have named Megaport Ltd (ASX: MP1) as one to buy for the Christmas rally. But over last Wednesday and Thursday it fell more than 31%.

“It produced a very sobering experience.”

The best bets for the Santa Rally

Getting back to the question, Gerrish’s team feels like the technology stocks are due for a recovery as we wait for Santa to come.

After all, the S&P/ASX All Technology Index (ASX: XTX) has sunk almost 36% over the past 12 months.

The prediction has disappointed so far, though.

“The underlying theme is we’re looking for a recovery in the tech sector but this has proved elusive 3-weeks into October.”

But the team is sticking with the theory, as Gerrish picked five stocks he thought would rally the fastest and furthest heading into the new year:

• Seek Limited (ASX: SEK)
• REA Group Limited (ASX: REA)
• Hub24 Ltd (ASX: HUB)
• Altium Limited (ASX: ALU)
• James Hardie Industries plc (ASX: JHX)

These are point-in-time picks, he warned.

“This list is likely to change over the ensuing weeks. But at this stage, I would go with some of our most recent purchases plus older existing holdings and one we are currently stalking.”

Seek shares are down 37% so far this year, while giving out a 2% dividend yield. Fellow online classifieds provider REA Group is almost 30% lower than when 2022 started, while paying out a 1.36% yield.

The Hub24 share price has only lost 16.85% year to date, while Altium is down 22%. 

James Hardie is painfully 41% lower than the start of the year, while handing out a 2.9% dividend yield.

The post 5 ASX shares to buy for the Christmas rally: expert appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Tony Yoo has positions in MEGAPORT FPO. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Altium, Hub24 Ltd, and MEGAPORT FPO. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Hub24 Ltd. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended MEGAPORT FPO, REA Group Limited, and SEEK Limited. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) coal shares have delivered some stellar returns to investors this year.

Coal stocks largely have soaring thermal and coking coal prices to thank for that outperformance.

Coking coal, if you’re not familiar, is mostly used in steel production.

Thermal coal is most broadly used to generate electricity.

Thermal coal prices, in particular, have been spurred far higher by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, as European and other nations are turning elsewhere for their energy needs.

That saw the Newcastle coal price (thermal) hit all-time highs of US$440 per tonne back in early March. Today it’s still trading for a heady US$387 per tonne.

As you’d expect, this has offered some gale-force tailwinds for ASX 200 coal shares.

How have the big Aussie coal producers been tracking?

To put some numbers on it, the ASX 200 is down 10% in 2022.

As for the ASX 200 coal shares:

• Yancoal Australia Ltd (ASX: YAL) shares are up 98%
• New Hope Corporation Limited (ASX: NHC) shares have gained 172%
• Whitehaven Coal Ltd (ASX: WHC) shares have leapt 256%

Of course, if the coal price retraces, so too will those helpful tailwinds.

And in estimates put out in the federal budget this week, government analysts believe thermal coal prices will fall to $US60 per tonne by the end of Q1 2023.

The budget also forecasts that coking coal prices will fall to $US130 per tonne (FOB Australia) by that time.

Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA), however, has a more bullish take for ASX energy share investors.

ASX 200 coal shares could keep the good times rolling

“We think that the Government’s forecasts for Australia’s key mining and energy commodities in the coming years are broadly too conservative,” CBA said in its Economic Insights report.

“Our main point of difference is the timing of when prices will normalise from the disruption to Russian commodity supply following the Ukraine conflict,” the bank noted. “We think prices will take longer than that to normalise, especially for commodities that Russia is a key supplier in.”

That longer delay in normalising prices would come as good news to ASX 200 coal shares.

According to the report:

The Budget’s coking coal price view is markedly lower than our view from 2022/23 to 2025/26… We think the disruption to Russian coking coal exports (~10% of the seaborne market) will take years to replace fully, helping keep a premium entrenched in coking coal prices over the Budget’s outlook period.

CBA has a similarly divergent view on the outlook for thermal coal, from which ASX 200 coal shares derive a large portion of their revenues.

The report noted:

The Budget’s outlook for thermal coal is significantly lower than our forecast in the outlook period… Like coking coal, we see the disruption to Russian thermal coal exports (~15% of the seaborne market) to be more long-lasting than the Budget over the outlook period. Replacing Russian thermal coal exports in the seaborne market will be challenging given the underinvestment in the sector over the last few years.

The post If CBA is right, ASX 200 coal shares should keep the good times rolling appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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More reading

• If I’d spent $5,000 buying this ASX 200 coal share a year ago, here’s what I would have now
• Why is the Whitehaven Coal share price rebounding strongly today?
• If the government has this right, the BHP share price could come under some serious pressure
• How to find wealth compounders inside the ASX 200 right now
• Here’s how ASX 200 banks stand to benefit from the budget

Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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On Thursday, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) was on form again and charged higher. The benchmark index rose 0.5% to 6,845.1 points.

Will the market be able to build on this on Friday and end the week on a high? Here are five things to watch:

ASX 200 expected to fall

The Australian share market looks set to end the week in the red after a mixed night on Wall Street. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open 15 points or 0.2% lower this morning. In late trade in the United States, the Dow Jones is up 0.9%, the S&P 500 has fallen 0.4%, and the Nasdaq has dropped 1.4%.

Oil prices rise

Energy shares such as Beach Energy Ltd (ASX: BPT) and Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS) could have a good finish to the week after oil prices pushed higher overnight. According to Bloomberg, the WTI crude oil price is up 0.9% to US$88.70 a barrel and the Brent crude oil price is up 1% to US$96.65 a barrel. Strong demand for oil has given prices a lift.

Macquarie half-year result

The Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) share price will be in focus today when the investment bank releases its half year results. According to a note out of Goldman Sachs, its analysts expect Macquarie to report a cash net profit after tax of $2,183 million. This is a touch higher than the market consensus estimate of $2,157 million.

ANZ rated neutral

The Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Ltd (ASX: ANZ) share price may be close to peaking according to Goldman Sachs. This morning the broker has responded to the bank’s full year results release by retaining its neutral rating with a $26.25 price target. It said: “Today’s result suggested that while ANZ’s NIM is likely to peak at higher levels than we previously forecast, this peak is also likely to come through earlier.”

Gold price falls

Gold shares including Newcrest Mining Ltd (ASX: NCM) and St Barbara Ltd (ASX: SBM) could have a poor end to the week after the gold price dropped overnight. According to CNBC, the spot gold price is down 0.35% to US$1,663.40 an ounce. The precious metal dropped after US dollar climbed ahead of the US Fed meeting next week.

The post 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Friday appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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More reading

• This ASX 200 lithium share was Auscap’s best performer in the last quarter. Here’s why the team expects even more progress
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• Batten down the hatches as RBA may hit households with ‘supersized’ interest rate hike on Melbourne Cup day

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Macquarie Group Limited. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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