Tag: News

• Trump's administration is proposing new student-loan borrowing caps for graduate and professional degrees.
• Advocates said the new caps would limit aid for nurses and exacerbate the medical worker shortage.
• Data shows that most students in advanced nursing programs borrow within the new proposed caps.

Nurses took the spotlight in a key student-loan repayment change.

The Department of Education has moved forward with President Donald Trump's plan to overhaul student-loan repayment in his "big beautiful" spending legislation, including new caps on student-loan borrowing for graduate and professional students.

A big point of contention was a new definition for the programs that qualify as "professional" and allow students to borrow more under the caps. Ten programs, including law and medicine, meet the department's professional designation and qualify for the higher $200,000 lifetime borrowing cap, while other programs, including nursing, are subject to the lower $100,000 cap.

The caps particularly angered the healthcare industry. During negotiations with the Department of Education on the proposed caps, some stakeholders argued that healthcare workers, such as nurses, might choose to leave the industry because they lack sufficient funding for their programs, thereby putting Americans who rely on healthcare services at risk. While data from the department showed that most advanced nursing programs would not be impacted by the caps, advocates still worry about the implications.

An analysis of data from the Department of Education's College Scorecard found that most students in post-graduate nursing programs borrow within the new caps. Preston Cooper, a senior fellow at the conservative think-tank the American Enterprise Institute, wrote in a blog post that "the new caps will affect only a small number of programs charging exorbitant prices." Cooper said 115 of the 140 advanced nursing programs had a median debt below $100,000, based on classes of 2019 and 2020 available data.

Only a handful of programs had debt loads of at least $180,000, well in excess of the new caps. Georgetown University's advanced nursing degree had a median debt load of $212,494.

Still, the new borrowing caps — coupled with Trump's elimination of the Grad PLUS program, which allowed graduate students to borrow up to the full cost of attendance for their programs — could weigh on the healthcare industry.

The Association of American Medical Colleges found that the median cost for four years of public medical school in 2025 was $286,454, with about half of medical students taking out Grad PLUS loans. Education policy experts told Business Insider that it's likely the caps could lead more students to forgo their advanced degrees or seek additional financing through the riskier private lending market.

The Department of Education said in a recent press release that 95% of nursing students borrow below the new caps, based on department data, and it emphasized that the limits do not impact undergraduate nursing programs. The department also said that changing the definition of a "professional" degree is "not a value judgement about the importance of programs."

"It has no bearing on whether a program is professional in nature or not," the department said.

The department's changes to student-loan repayment, including the new borrowing caps, could still change. The public will have an opportunity to comment on the proposal early next year before the final rule is implemented in July 2026.

How the new borrowing caps could affect the medical worker shortage

Healthcare advocates said the caps could exacerbate the already-existing doctor and nurse shortage, especially alongside planned Medicaid changes: "It feels like we're being attacked on all sides and really limiting what we can get from a funding perspective," Jennifer Mensik Kennedy, president of the American Nurses Association, told Business Insider.

Mensik Kennedy added that removing professional designations from nursing degrees could make it more difficult to train and retain faculty at nursing schools, a job that requires more advanced and expensive education. "It's going to be a really bad revolving issue where we don't have enough faculty to produce enough nurses to replace the nurses who are retiring," she said. The trend will have an "immediate impact" on the number of nurses in the US healthcare system, which will shape patient care for years to come.

NerdWallet lending expert Kate Wood also said increased limitations on student loans could further disparities in the nursing field. She told Business Insider that "Healthcare professionals already skew whiter and wealthier than the general population" and loan caps "may push students from groups that have historically had limited access to higher education, like people from underrepresented minority groups, lower-income families or people in rural areas, away from these fields."

• Meta delays the release of its "Phoenix" mixed reality glasses to 2027, aiming to "get the details right."
• An internal memo cited the need for "breathing room" as the company wants a "fully polished" device.
• It's also developing a next-gen Quest headset and a wearable device code-named "Malibu 2."

Meta is delaying the release of new mixed reality glasses code-named "Phoenix."

The company planned to release the new device in the second half of 2026, but it is pushing back its timeline to the first half of 2027, Maher Saba, VP of Reality Labs Foundation, wrote in a Thursday memo to employees, which was seen by Business Insider.

In a separate memo, also viewed by Business Insider, metaverse leaders Gabriel Aul and Ryan Cairns said moving the release date back is "going to give us a lot more breathing room to get the details right."

They added, "There's a lot coming in hot with tight bring-up schedules and big changes to our core UX, and we won't compromise on landing a fully polished and reliable experience."

Meta declined to comment.

The "Phoenix" mixed reality glasses, which were previously reported on by The Information, have a goggle-like form factor and are connected to a puck to help power them, according to two employees who have seen the device and spoke anonymously as they are not authorized to talk to the press.

The two employees said the model looks similar to Apple's mixed reality glasses Vision Pro. There was some skepticism among leaders about the puck, but they chose to keep it to help keep the glasses lighter and more comfortable, and to prevent it from overheating, they said.

Saba said in the memo that at a recent meeting with CEO Mark Zuckerberg, Reality Labs (RL) leaders received feedback on their plans for 2026, which he said "focused on making the business sustainable and taking extra time to deliver our experiences with higher quality."

"Based on that, many teams in RL will need to adjust their plans and timelines," he added. "Extending timelines is not an opportunity for us to add more features or take on additional work."

Meta also plans to release a new "limited edition" wearable device code-named "Malibu 2" in 2026, according to Saba.

Meta is starting work on its next-generation Quest device, a product that Aul and Cairns wrote will be focused on immersive gaming, and represent a "large upgrade" in capabilities from its existing devices, and "significantly improve unit economics."

In October, Meta reorganized its metaverse unit and tapped Aul, who led products for Meta Horizon, and Cairns, who was previously in charge of virtual reality hardware, to co-lead its efforts, Business Insider previously reported. The company is now considering budget cuts of up to 30% within its Reality Labs division, which could impact employees working on its virtual spaces platform, Horizon Worlds.

The company has also expanded its AI hardware push by acquiring Limitless, a startup that makes AI-powered pendant devices, the company announced Friday.

Have a tip? Contact this reporter via email at jmann@businessinsider.com or Signal at jyotimann.11. Use a personal email address and a nonwork device; here's our guide to sharing information securely.

• A federal judge ordered Google to limit default search and AI app contracts to one year.
• The ruling follows a 2024 finding that Google illegally monopolized online search markets.
• The decision aims to boost competition from rivals in search apps and generative AI.

A judge opened the door to upending Google's dominance as the default search on your phone.

On Friday, a federal judge ordered Google to limit all default search and AI app contracts to one year, a setback for the long-term deals that have helped cement the company's dominance on billions of devices.

The ruling, detailed in a December 2025 judgment, requires Alphabet's Google to renegotiate every default-placement agreement annually, including lucrative deals with Apple's iPhone and manufacturers like Samsung.

Judge Amit Mehta of the US District Court of the District of Columbia said the "hard-and-fast termination requirement after one year" is necessary to enforce antitrust relief after his landmark 2024 finding that Google illegally monopolized online search and search advertising.

The decision aims to open the door for rivals, especially fast-moving generative AI companies, to compete for default spots that have historically been held for years at a time. It builds on a separate September order requiring Google to share some of the data behind its search rankings with competitors.

While Google can still pay device makers for default placement, the annual renegotiation rule sharply restricts its ability to secure long-term control over the search market.

Google and the Justice Department did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

• The Society for Human Resource Management has fought an ex-staffer over discrimination claims since 2022.
• On Friday, a Colorado jury issued a $11.5 million verdict in favor of the former employee.
• In recent years, SHRM has been embroiled in controversies, as Business Insider recently reported.

A jury on Friday issued an $11.5 million verdict against the world's largest HR organization over allegations it had racially discriminated and retaliated against a former employee.

The Society for Human Resource Management, known as SHRM, was found liable for racial discrimination and retaliation and hit with a ruling of $1.5 million in compensatory damages and $10 million for punitive damages, according to Ariel DeFazio, a lawyer for the plaintiff.

SHRM said it plans to appeal the decision. "Today's decision does not reflect the facts, the law, or the truth of how SHRM operates," the trade group said in a statement. "We have acted with integrity, transparency, and in full alignment with our values and obligations."

SHRM was sued in 2022 by Rehab Mohamed, who worked at the trade group as an instructional designer from 2016 to 2020. The case was tried over the course of five days in a Colorado federal court.

"The optics are bad because they've held themselves out as an authority on best practices," said Alice K. Jump, an employment attorney and partner at law firm Reavis Page Jump.

Mohamed said in her suit that she was racially discriminated against by a white supervisor and faced retaliation for complaining to management. She said she raised concerns about racial discrimination and retaliation with leadership, including SHRM's CEO, Johnny C. Taylor Jr., and its head of human resources, throughout the summer of 2020.

While testifying on December 4, Taylor said he wasn't involved in Mohamed's termination. A former SHRM employee, Mike Jackson, who said he was responsible for investigating the matter, told the court that Mohamed's was the only discrimination claim he had ever investigated.

In response to questions from Hunter Swain, another of Mohamed's lawyers, Jackson said that he left SHRM in 2021 and his title was manager of employee experience. He said he became a certified HR professional while employed there and that he had undergone one training session on HR investigations just a few months before the discriminatory events that Mohamed cited in her lawsuit took place.

When asked by Swain what he learned from the training, Jackson said he couldn't remember any specifics.

SHRM has consistently denied Mohamed's claims. In September, SHRM asked the court to bar Mohamed from introducing evidence or argument that the organization is a specialist in HR best practices.

The following month, US District Judge Gordon P. Gallagher denied SHRM's request, saying its "asserted expertise in human resources is integral to the circumstances of this case and cannot reasonably be excluded."

In his testimony, Taylor said SHRM's work includes advising HR professionals about best practices, including those pertaining to investigating internal complaints of discrimination and retaliation. He said SHRM has a set of curricula around best practices for investigating employment complaints.

The verdict was not surprising given that SHRM promotes itself as an expert in HR, Boston employment lawyer Evan Fray-Witzer told Business Insider. "You're going to be held to a higher standard," he said.

In recent years, SHRM has been embroiled in various controversies, as Business Insider recently reported. These include a new attendance policy that penalizes workers who arrive even a minute after 9 a.m.; a memo about a "conservative" dress code that bans sequins; and a companywide meeting in which Taylor said some staffers were "entitled," "complacent," and "sloppy."

During pre-trial discovery for Mohamed's case, SHRM revealed the existence of two other discrimination complaints from employees. One case, filed with the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission in 2018, was settled. The other, filed with a California regulator in 2021, is pending. SHRM also denied wrongdoing in those cases.

"We are very happy that the jury spent a week listening very closely to the evidence and that they decided, as a result, to hold SHRM accountable," Mohamed's lawyer, DeFazio, told Business Insider. She said the verdict would "send a message to workplaces in the entire country."

• Vanity Fair and journalist Olivia Nuzzi are severing ties, the outlet confirmed to Business Insider.
• Nuzzi's relationship with RFK Jr. has been the subject of controversy and is discussed in her book "American Canto."
• Her ex, political journalist Ryan Lizza, has been making sordid allegations on his Substack.

Journalist Olivia Nuzzi and Vanity Fair are severing ties.

Nuzzi joined Vanity Fair in September 2025, after departing New York magazine in 2024 in the wake of revelations that she'd had a relationship with her source, Robert F. Kennedy, Jr, then a presidential candidate.

The fallout from the affair has continued after Nuzzi's ex-fiancé, former Politico correspondent Ryan Lizza, recently accused Nuzzi of additional ethical breaches.

"Vanity Fair and Olivia Nuzzi have mutually agreed, in the best interest of the magazine, to let her contract expire at the end of the year," according to a joint statement from spokespeople for Vanity Fair and Nuzzi provided to Business Insider.

A third-party investigation into her reporting at New York magazine revealed no bias, but the magazine said at the time that her relationship with the ex-presidential candidate violated their conflict-of-interest standards.

Following her split with Lizza and New York magazine, Nuzzi, a former star political reporter, moved to Los Angeles. She published a memoir, "American Canto" on Tuesday, in which she detailed the past 10 years of political reporting and her relationship with "the politician," understood to be RFK Jr.

Since their split, Lizza and Nuzzi have been engaged in an ongoing reputational battle, with each publicly accusing the other of engaging in behaviors that, while not illegal, undermine each other's journalistic credibility.

Nuzzi, in a petition for a temporary protective order against him in late 2024, accused Lizza of blackmailing her and threatening to destroy her career, which Lizza has denied. She later withdrew the petition.

After a lull, the public acrimony continued with the revelation of Nuzzi's book, followed by a series of Substack posts from Lizza.

He has suggested in online postings that Nuzzi used her position as a reporter to "catch and kill" unflattering stories about RFK Jr. He also accused her of having another unusual relationship with a different subject.

A spokesperson for Nuzzi did not respond to questions about Lizza's allegations. In a post for Emily Sundberg's Substack, Feed Me, she wrote it was "another attempt to harass, humiliate, and harm me until I am as destroyed as he seems to be," and called Lizza's posts "fan fiction-slash-revenge porn."

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Ariana Grande is officially touring again in 2026: The Eternal Sunshine Tour opens June 6, 2026 in Oakland and runs across North America with arena stops in Los Angeles, Atlanta, Montreal, Chicago and more, followed by a London O2 run in mid-August. Cities and dates were confirmed via the official announcement and ticketing pages, with multiple nights added in several markets due to demand.

Grande announced the tour in late August 2025 and opened presales in early September. Initial allocations sold out quickly, prompting the addition of shows in Oakland, Los Angeles, Austin, Sunrise, Atlanta, Brooklyn, Boston, Montreal, Chicago, and London. If you're trying to get seats now, start with primary listings and then compare trusted resale options, since some dates are already selling above face value. Below, we break down how to buy Ariana Grande tickets with the latest schedule, presale details, and price checkpoints. You can also look at ticket details at your leisure on StubHub and Vivid Seats.

• See also: Is StubHub legit? | Katseye tickets | Bruno Mars tickets | PinkPantheress tickets | Tate McRae tickets | Cardi B tickets | Blackpink tickets | Twice tickets | EDC tickets | Bad Bunny tickets

Ariana Grande’s 2026 tour schedule

For the Eternal Sunshine tour, Ariana Grande will be doing multiple shows at each of her stops. She will begin in California on June 6, 2026, and then make her way to Texas, Florida, Georgia, New York, Massachusetts, Canada, and conclude her North American shows with a visit to Illinois next August. Afterward, she is set to perform 10 shows in London, officially concluding the tour on September 1, 2026.

North America

International

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How to buy tickets for Ariana Grande’s 2025 concert tour

Original standard tickets were sold on Ticketmaster but quickly sold out for all North American shows shortly after release. Tickets for the London performances of The Eternal Sunshine tour are currently available for presale, with general on sale beginning September 18 at 10 AM EDT.

Tickets are also available from verified resale vendors such as StubHub and Vivid Seats. Since original tickets for The Eternal Sunshine tour are no longer available, reselling tickets is the best option for securing a spot.

How much are Ariana Grande tickets?

Tickets for Ariana Grande’s The Eternal Sunshine tour vary depending on the date, location, and demand for each show. Original standard tickets quickly sold out on Ticketmaster shortly after the general sale began, and currently only resale options are available for North American stops. London shows began their general sale on September 18 at 10 a.m. ET.

Overall, resale prices are high. Ariana herself has commented on her disappointment with scalpers and tried to discuss with the venues about making as many tickets available as possible so that her fans can attend without paying inflated prices.

StubHub and Vivid Seats currently have similar resale prices. StubHub’s most affordable options range from $395 (July 25 in Boston and July 30 in Montreal) to $752 (August 3 in Chicago). Vivid Seats prices range from $416 (June 30 in Sunrise, Florida) to $906 (June 20 in Inglewood). It could be attributed to the high demand and anticipation for the tour from Ariana Grande, who has not toured in seven years. However, many locations even have premium seats being resold for several thousand dollars.

However, with resale prices high and the tour not set to begin until 2026, prices are expected to fluctuate over the next few months.

Upon the release of The Eternal Sunshine’s tickets, three VIP packages were sold on Ticketmaster: the Ultimate Ari’s Lounge VIP Package, the Ari’s Lounge VIP Package, and the Gold VIP Package. These packages included various perks such as premium reserved tickets, early entry, VIP gifts, and access to an exclusive VIP lounge. Similar to the original standard tickets, these packages quickly sold out and are no longer available.

Who is opening for Ariana Grande’s tour?

There has been no official announcement made yet regarding opening acts for Ariana Grande’s 2026 The Eternal Sunshine tour. For her previous Sweetener world tour, Ella Mai, Normani, and Social House opened for Grande. It is expected that more information will be made public as the tour approaches regarding whether someone will be opening for the star on her highly anticipated tour.

Will there be international tour dates?

There are currently 10 performances scheduled in London for The Eternal Sunshine tour. The final five dates were announced on September 16, with Ariana stating that these dates would be the last additions to the tour, and the current schedule is now finalized.

How much are Ariana Grande meet and greet tickets?

While three VIP packages were offered on Ticketmaster for The Eternal Sunshine tour, none of these packages included a meet-and-greet option.

During her Sweetener tour, Ariana Grande previously offered meet-and-greet options for sale in the range of $1,000, which included pit access as well as the opportunity to view the pre-show soundcheck. However, midway through the tour Ariana ended meet and greet options, which was reportedly due to anxiety. So, while it seems unlikely that she will offer a meet-and-greet for The Eternal Sunshine tour or future tours, Ariana has been reported to have said she does not mind interacting with fans if they happen to meet her by chance.

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Although Illenium’s coming album “Odyssey” does not have a release date, fans can rejoice as there will be one place to experience it next year if you’re ready for a trip to Las Vegas. The second electronic artist to have a Sphere residency, Illenium is set to do a nine-show run at the Las Vegas Sphere, fully utilizing the advanced technological capabilities the space has to offer. If you're ready to see a one-of-a-kind performance from the artist, I've broken down how to get Illenium tickets below.

Nicholas Daniel "Nick" Miller, professionally known as Illenium, began producing music in 2008 and has since earned a Grammy nomination, topped multiple Billboard charts, and collaborated with other noteworthy artists such as The Chainsmokers and Taylor Swift. In addition to his highly anticipated Sphere residency, 2026 is also set to see the artist make an appearance at the popular Ultra Music Festival in Miami.

We've got you covered if you want to grab tickets to see Illenium before the year’s up, or next year at his Sphere residency. Here's our breakdown of the tour schedule, purchasing details, and a comparison of prices between original and resale ticket options. You can also explore resale sites like StubHub and Vivid Seats at your own leisure.

• See more: Is StubHub legit? | Las Vegas Sphere tickets | PinkPantheress tickets | Lorde tickets | EDC tickets | John Summit tickets

Illenium’s 2025 and 2026 tour schedule

Illenium is set to join several festivals to finish off 2025 in Philadelphia, Dallas, and Denver, as well as hold a headlining show in Tampa. From March 2026, he will embark on a nine-show residency at the Las Vegas Sphere, taking a brief break at the end of March to perform at the Ultra Music Festival in Miami.

* Indicates a music festival at which Illenium will be performing, in addition to several other artists.

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How to buy tickets for Illenium’s 2025 and 2026 concert tour

Original standard tickets to see Illenium are available for purchase on Ticketmaster. For Illenium’s headlining residency at the Las Vegas Sphere, there are also travel packages including hotel stays at the Las Vegas Venetian Resort as well as several other perks available on Vibee.

Tickets can also be purchased from verified resale vendor sites such as StubHub and Vivid Seats. As his residency dates approach and for festival appearances (which have high demand and often sell out), you may be able to find more affordable options on these sites compared to the original tickets. We recommend checking both options to find the best deal for the date you are looking to attend.

How much are Illenium tickets?

Prices for Illenium’s coming appearances and residency shows vary depending on the event type, date, location, and demand for each show. For Sphere residency shows, original standard tickets have extremely limited remaining availability; however, as of writin,g there are still options listed for all shows. Seats further back tend to start at around $145-$170 (some listed as ‘limited visibility’), with closer seats priced at around $400. The non-reserved standing pit area is listed on Ticketmaster at $372, with general admission standing (behind the pit) at $223.

StubHub and Vivid Seats are priced similarly to each other, with some options cheaper than the original tickets available. We expect that as original tickets reach sold-out status, prices may change, however. StubHub’s most affordable options for Illenium’s Las Vegas Sphere performances range from $88 for his March 12 show to $185 for the March 7 show. Vivid Seats offers a range of prices from $82 to $169 for the same two performances.

outside his Sphere residency, there are also affordable options for Illenium’s show in Tampa on December 28 of this year, currently starting at $81 on StubHub and $75 on Vivid Seats. Festival appearances tend to be more expensive, as they often include weekend passes and provide access to other performances, as well as similar festival activities.

There are currently two VIP packages available for purchase, in addition to hotel packages that include both general and VIP ticket options. The main difference between the two VIP packages is that the Vibee SVIP concert experience package includes an exclusive meet-and-greet opportunity with Illenium himself. Both packages include a premium reserved seat at the Sphere, a curated VIP gift, early access to the Illenium fan experience, and priority entry into the Sphere.

The regular VIP package is currently listed on Ticketmaster starting at around $649. SVIP tickets are no longer listed on Ticketmaster as far as we could find, but are still listed as available via the Vibee hotel package bundles. Full VIP package details can be viewed on Ticketmaster, with hotel packages available to browse on Vibee. Hotel packages are listed starting at $899 for standard ticket hotel bundles, with the most premium packages for SVIP listed starting at $3,500. Hotel packages are based on two-person occupancy, with starting prices listed per person.

Who is opening for Illenium’s tour?

It has not been announced if Illenium will have an opening act for his Las Vegas residency. As the Sphere is known for its immersive technology and sensory experiences, it is possible that Illenium may not have an opener so as to fully use all the capabilities the Sphere has for his “Oddysey” production. However, more may be announced later as the residency approaches.

Will there be international tour dates?

Illenium does not have any international shows scheduled for the remainder of 2025 or 2026. As he has not made any official announcements regarding his schedule following his residency at the Las Vegas Sphere, it is possible he may announce international shows for 2026 at a later date.

Will Illenium tour in 2026?

Illenium has announced a residency at the Las Vegas Sphere in 2026. The residency, dubbed “Illenium Presents Odyssey,” will consist of nine shows. Utilizing the immersive aspects of the Las Vegas Sphere, the highly anticipated event has been described as “the only place fans will be able to experience Illenium’s forthcoming studio album ‘ODYSSEY’ live”.

Alongside his Las Vegas residency, Illenium is scheduled to perform at the Ultra Music Festival in Miami next March.

• Netflix is buying WBD assets, including HBO Max, in a media mega-deal.
• Warner Bros. Discovery CEO David Zaslav told staffers that "HBO Max will stay" after Netflix buys it.
• Netflix expects the deal will take 12 to 18 months to complete.

What will happen to HBO Max after Netflix buys it?

Warner Bros. Discovery CEO David Zaslav answered that question in a town hall with employees on Friday.

"HBO Max will stay," Zaslav said, according to a recording of the all-hands obtained by Business Insider. "So anybody that has Netflix and has HBO Max will have a better experience. For people that only want HBO Max, they'll be able to get it."

The Friday meeting followed the announcement earlier in the day that Netflix would buy WBD's streaming and studios business — including the Warner Bros. studio, HBO, and HBO Max — in a blockbuster $72 billion deal.

HBO Max and Netflix will operate as separate brands and services, a person with knowledge of Netflix's thinking said.

The deal is expected to close in 12 to 18 months, pending regulatory approval, the companies said.

Although Zaslav said HBO Max would continue as a stand-alone entity, he won't ultimately be in the driver's seat if the deal goes through. Netflix could make strategy changes as it absorbs the WBD assets — especially over the long haul.

Business Insider's Peter Kafka wrote the following about the Netflix-HBO tie-up: "The most logical way this would play out would be something like this: Netflix continues to offer the service now called HBO Max to anyone who wants it — whether or not they subscribe to Netflix — and then offers it to Netflix customers at a discount. A real bundle. A Netflix version of 'basic cable + HBO.'"

Kafka added: "I'm sure Netflix will consider some tweaks beyond simply running two different services at the same time and selling a discounted bundle."

HBO Max has lived through a series of name changes — and owners. For employees working on WBD's streaming services, the only constant seems to be change.

• Economists, hedge fund investors, and tech executives compete in a forecasting contest each year.
• OpenAI's ChatGPT participated in the 2025 game for the first time.
• The competition tested AI's ability to make predictions without clear online content as a guide.

The ability to forecast the future is a valuable sign of intelligence and a good test of AI's capabilities. How good is ChatGPT at prediction?

An answer to this fascinating question emerged recently when economist David Seif wrapped up an annual forecasting contest he runs for a secret group of economists, hedge fund investors, and tech executives.

In its seventh year, the challenge requires contestants to predict roughly 30 events. The 2025 game kicked off in late 2024, when Seif sent out the list of events to predict in fields such as politics, business, science, economics, pop culture, and sports.

One question asked the contestants to forecast whether Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce would announce their engagement by April 1. Another: Would Bulgaria adopt the euro as its official currency on or before July 1?

Sam Leffell, a director at a hedge fund firm, was filling out his probabilities in December and had an idea.

"When I was answering the questions, I had the ChatGPT screen up. I wondered, what it will say to these questions?" he recalled in a recent interview.

ChatGPT had to learn complex rules

Leffell reached out to Seif to ask if ChatGPT could take part, and Seif said, go for it. So, Leffell got started by pasting the game's rules into ChatGPT.

These are complex rules, covering multiple pages. Contestants must assign a percentage based on the likelihood of each event happening. As the results come in over the year, these predictions are scored a bit like golf. The lowest score wins.

"You get points equal to the square of the difference between what you put and the results," Seif said.

For example, if you assign a 90% chance of something happening and you get it right, you get 10 points. That number is squared, resulting in a total of 100 points. Excellent work.

The opposite is more painful. If your 90% probability event doesn't occur, you are stuck with the difference between 90 and zero. That 90 score is then squared for a total of 8,100 points. Ouch.

And this is only the scoring system. There are whole pages of rules on other aspects of the game. Leffell pasted all this into ChatGPT.

A few seconds later, the AI chatbot responded, "Thank you for providing the detailed rules of the forecasting contest. Please share the clean list of prompts for which you need a probability estimate, and I will provide a single number for each as per the contest's guidelines."

Leffell pasted in all 30 questions at once, and ChatGPT quickly replied with its percentage probabilities for each event. Leffell sent those to Seif, who entered the responses on ChatGPT's behalf.

Even while setting this machine-prediction experiment up, Leffell noticed something intriguing.

"For one question, related to an NFL wild card outcome, it gave a mathematical response that was statistically correct," he said. "It was doing math rather than qualitative stuff. That was notable because ChatGPT, at the time, was not supposed to be good at math."

ChatGPT makes predictions

As 2025 began, 160 contestants had submitted their predictions and began waiting for the future to unfurl.

This is when I first heard about the game through friends who were participating. One is a hedge fund manager. The other two are a chief marketing officer and a lawyer.

They became insufferable at parties, discussing their various forecasts, along with the intricacies of the scoring system and other rules.

It's the type of conversation that bores me to death. However, when one friend mentioned that ChatGPT was taking part for the first time, I got hooked.

Could a machine outperform 160 humans in predicting all these events? AI models are great when there's existing data. When the future's involved, there's a lot less information to lean on.

I'd recently tested ChatGPT's stock market forecasting ability. Could it excel at this more complex challenge, or are humans uniquely adept at foreseeing the future through experience, extrapolation, and intuition?

As the year progressed, some events occurred, and others didn't. Some happened too late, while others developed in weird, unexpected ways. As life does.

Each time a question was resolved, Seif updated a central spreadsheet and sent a ranking to all the contestants.

My friends seized on every update. Who was winning? Who was lagging? And most of all, where was ChatGPT ranked?

Strange symmetry

The game wrapped up on November 13.

"For the first time in the seven years we've run the contest, I pulled off the win myself," Seif wrote in his final email update of the 2025 competition.

ChatGPT came 80th, he wrote, "and we had 160 players."

Strange symmetry. I immediately texted my friends: This means ChatGPT is no better than the average human! Not very impressive.

One of my buddies, the CMO, replied: No, this means ChatGPT is as good as the average human. Incredible!

ChatGPT missed a benchmark

I asked Seif about this, and he had a different way of measuring ChatGPT's predictive power, or lack thereof.

If you'd put a 50% probability for each event happening, you'd have gotten 75,000 points. That's Seif's benchmark for whether contestants added value or not.

ChatGPT got 82,925. So it missed that benchmark, essentially adding negative value, according to Seif.

When there was a lot of existing data to help with forecasting and calculating probabilities, ChatGPT did better, he said.

For instance, the chatbot analyzed this event well, giving it a 70% chance of happening: The winning team of the FIFA Club World Cup is from the European Union.

ChatGPT performed worse when there was a lack of data, or it missed new information that altered the likelihood of an event occurring.

For example, the chatbot assigned a 95% chance of this happening: Astronauts Suni Williams and Butch Wilmore safely return to Earth by March 1.

By the end of 2024, news announcements made it clear that this rescue mission was highly unlikely to happen by March 1, 2025, Seif said.

"ChatGPT just wasn't up with the news on that one," he added.

Maybe ChatGPT won?

Leffell, the hedge fund manager who entered ChatGPT in the game, drew different conclusions and shared some important caveats.

He asked ChatGPT to make these predictions in December 2024. OpenAI's chatbot has improved since then, so its forecasting ability may be better now. Better prompting may have also helped ChatGPT perform better.

Leffell also said that ChatGPT took only a few minutes to understand the complex rules of the game and make 30 predictions—a lot faster than most human contestants.

Leffell himself spent many hours, over several days, to understand the questions and research the events, coming up with his own probabilities.

"It did better than half the people, and it spent a lot less time than everyone else on the challenge," he told me. "If you look at results per minute of work, maybe ChatGPT won?"

As an investor, he's in the business of assessing as many probabilities as possible, so ChatGPT and similar AI tools have become essential, he said.

"What if you are not having to predict 30 events quickly, but 30,000 events instead? What if it's good enough at making all these predictions quickly?" Leffell said.

"It's become ubiquitous in everything I do, in my personal life and at work," he added. "We're using it a lot. ChatGPT is table stakes at this point."

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