Tag: Stock pick

The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is hovering around record highs again on Friday.

On the surface, that can make it feel like everything is expensive. The banks are trading near peak valuations. The major miners have rebounded strongly. Some high-quality industrials look fully priced.

But a record index does not mean a fully priced market. It often just means value options have narrowed.

Right now, I think there are still pockets of genuine value on the ASX. You just have to look beyond the obvious.

Here’s where I’m seeing opportunity.

The healthcare sector

One of the clearest areas of value, in my view, is healthcare.

High-quality global businesses have been sold off over the past couple of years due to earnings resets, temporary headwinds, or sentiment shifts. But structurally, their long-term growth drivers remain intact.

Take CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL).

It has not been a smooth ride for shareholders recently. But plasma collection volumes have improved, margins are on the path to recovery, and the company continues to invest in its pipeline. The share price de-rating means the risk-reward profile looks far more attractive than it did at the peak.

I also think Cochlear Ltd (ASX: COH) fits into this bucket. Hearing loss is a major problem globally, and Cochlear’s world-class products give it a powerful competitive advantage. Structural demand, global exposure, and strong cash generation at a reasonable multiple? That’s the kind of value I look for at record market highs.

The tech sector

Another area I still see value is among tech stocks that have been punished in 2026.

The index may be at record highs, but plenty of former high-flyers are still well below their peaks.

For example, WiseTech Global Ltd (ASX: WTC) has endured a significant pullback due to company-specific issues and slowing growth in its core business. However, the long-term opportunity in global logistics software remains large. If earnings reaccelerate over the next couple of years, today’s valuation could look conservative.

Similarly, Xero Ltd (ASX: XRO) continues to build scale globally. It’s no longer priced for perfection like it once was. For a business with strong recurring revenue, global expansion potential, and improving margins, I think it still offers compelling long-term value relative to its quality.

Infrastructure and defensive earnings

If the ASX 200 is expensive, I also want resilience.

Infrastructure-style assets with predictable cash flows can still make sense, even when the index is elevated.

Transurban Group (ASX: TCL) is one example. It owns long-life toll road assets across Australia and North America, many with inflation-linked pricing mechanisms. That provides a built-in buffer against rising costs and economic uncertainty.

When I can buy defensive, cash-generating assets that have visible revenue streams, I am less worried about the broader index level.

Foolish Takeaway

A record high ASX 200 Index doesn’t mean it’s time to panic. It just means you need to be selective.

I’m less interested in chasing crowded trades at premium valuations. Instead, I’m focusing on high-quality healthcare names that have already de-rated, structural growth businesses trading below prior peaks, and defensive infrastructure assets with predictable cash flow.

Value still exists. It just isn’t necessarily where the headlines are pointing.

The post ASX 200 at a record high? Here’s where I still see value appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• If I had to build an ASX share portfolio from scratch today, here’s how I’d do it
• The boss of which tech company has just bought $1m worth of shares?
• 3 strong ASX dividend stocks for retirees to buy
• Why this expert thinks the WiseTech share price can rise 80% in the next 12 months
• Buy, hold, sell: Breville, CSL, and EOS shares

Motley Fool contributor Grace Alvino has positions in CSL and Transurban Group. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended CSL, Cochlear, Transurban Group, WiseTech Global, and Xero. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Transurban Group, WiseTech Global, and Xero. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended CSL and Cochlear. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Lynas Rare Earths Ltd (ASX: LYC) shares are ending the week with a bang.

In afternoon trade, the rare earths producer’s shares are up 9% to $18.85.

This means they are now up by over 170% since this time last year.

Unfortunately, the team at Bell Potter thinks this is the top and is warning investors that Lynas shares could come crashing down to Earth soon.

What is the broker saying?

Bell Potter has been running the rule over Lynas’ half-year results. While it was strong operationally, it fell short of expectations on the bottom line. The broker said:

Revenue was $413m (BPe $402m, VA $411.5m), a 62% increase on PcP, driven by a 49% increase in the basket price. The basket price increase was driven by a combination of higher premiums achieved for NdPr and a greater volume of NdPr sales as a portion of total REO sales (60% vs 56%). COGS of $220m (BPe $224m, VA $249m) expanded in-line with the increase in production, the inclusion of Kalgoorlie costs and power disruptions, importantly excluding depreciation this figure was below our estimates and consensus.

EBITDA of $152m was 4% ahead of our estimate and 2% ahead of consensus (BPe $146m, VA $149m). Depreciation was materially higher than we anticipated at $71.9m (BPe $38.3m, VA $43.8m). G&A expenses surprised to the upside as well, at $56m over the half, up from $47m in 2HFY25. At the NPAT line, LYC recorded $80m which was 7% below our estimate ($86m) and 13% below consensus ($92m).

Lynas shares tipped to sink

According to the note, the broker believes Lynas shares are severely overvalued at current levels.

This morning, it has retained its sell rating on them with a slightly improved price target of $11.60 (from $11.15).

Based on its current share price, this implies almost 40% downside over the next 12 months.

To put that into context, a $10,000 investment could turn into approximately $6,000 by this time next year if Bell Potter is on the money with its recommendation.

Commenting on its sell recommendation, Bell Potter said:

Fundamentals are improving, however we continue to see a significant premium applied to the stock. NdPr has risen more recently (+US$100/kg), we estimate the stock is factoring in ~US$175/kg into perpetuity. Our TP increases slightly and we maintain the Sell recommendation, EPS changes in this report are FY26: -8% FY27 – 10% FY28 -11%.

The post Why the Lynas share price could crash almost 40% appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Lynas Rare Earths earnings: Profit jumps as growth strategy kicks off
• Sell alert! Why this expert is calling time on Lynas shares
• Two critical minerals companies to consider, according to Macquarie
• Buy, hold, sell: CSL, Lynas, and Wesfarmers shares
• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has recommended Lynas Rare Earths Ltd. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

If you are building a long-term portfolio, I believe passive income should be a part of the core strategy.

Strong dividend stocks can help smooth out market volatility, provide regular cash flow, and compound wealth over time. Today, 3 ASX names stand out to me for their combination of yield, scale, and proven earnings power.

Here are 3 ASX dividend stocks I think every Aussie investor should at least consider.

Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS)

The Woodside share price is up 0.90% today to $28.19.

Woodside is Australia’s largest listed oil and gas producer. It generates enormous cash flow during periods of solid oil and LNG prices and has built a track record of returning that cash to shareholders.

At the current share price, Woodside is offering a trailing dividend yield of around 6%. Importantly, the company’s dividends are 100% franked.

Woodside pays in US dollars, which gives Aussie investors exposure to global energy markets and the US currency. That can act as a natural hedge if the Australian dollar weakens.

Energy earnings can be cyclical, but Woodside’s scale, long life assets, and disciplined capital management make it one of the more resilient players in the sector.

New Hope Corporation Ltd (ASX: NHC)

The New Hope share price is up 0.21% to $4.71.

New Hope is a coal producer, which means its profits are tied to thermal coal prices. When coal prices are strong, cash flow can surge.

At current levels, New Hope is offering a dividend yield of roughly 7.2%, with dividends 100% franked. That is a very attractive income stream in today’s market.

Like Woodside, earnings can be volatile. Coal prices have cooled from their peak levels, which could impact future payouts.

However, New Hope has maintained a relatively conservative balance sheet and has returned excess capital to shareholders in previous years.

BlueScope Steel Ltd (ASX: BSL)

The BlueScope share price is up 1.01% today to $27.99.

BlueScope is a global steel producer with operations in Australia, the United States, and Asia. While steel earnings are also cyclical, BlueScope has diversified its revenue base and improved cost control over recent years.

At present, the dividend yield sits around 2.1%. That is lower than the 2 ASX energy names above, but BlueScope offers something different.

It provides exposure to construction and infrastructure activity, particularly in the US. When building activity is strong, margins can expand quickly. The company has also shown disciplined capital management, including share buybacks and special dividends in stronger years.

Foolish bottom line

No dividend is ever guaranteed. Commodity prices move, economic conditions change, and earnings can fluctuate.

However, Woodside, New Hope, and BlueScope are established businesses with strong cash generation and a history of rewarding shareholders.

If you are seeking income plus long-term growth, these 3 ASX dividend stocks deserve a closer look.

The post 3 ASX dividend stocks I think every Aussie should own appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Friday
• 35 ASX All Ords shares with ex-dividend dates next week
• Why Fortescue was upgraded and Woodside shares could be a buy
• 6% fully-franked yield! Is this ASX income share a buy?
• BlueScope shares on the slide as takeover again rebuffed

Motley Fool contributor Aaron Teboneras has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

It has been another busy week for many of Australia’s top brokers. This has led to the release of a number of broker notes.

Three broker buy ratings that you might want to know more about are summarised below. Here’s why brokers think these ASX shares are in the buy zone right now:

DroneShield Ltd (ASX: DRO)

According to a note out of Bell Potter, its analysts have retained their buy rating on this counter-drone technology company’s shares with a trimmed price target of $4.80. This follows the release of full-year results that were strong, but just a touch short of expectations due to a weaker-than-expected gross margin. Nevertheless, Bell Potter remains very positive. It once again highlights that the company has a market-leading offering and a strengthening competitive advantage owing to its years of battlefield experience and large and focused R&D team. It is also expecting 2026 to be an inflection point for the global C-UAS industry with a wave of spending on solutions. As a result, it believes DroneShield should see material contracts flowing from its $2.3 billion potential sales pipeline over the next three to six months. The DroneShield share price is trading at $3.64 on Friday.

Jumbo Interactive Ltd (ASX: JIN)

A note out of Morgans reveals that its analysts have retained their buy rating and $14.90 price target on this lottery ticket seller’s shares. Morgans was pleased with Jumbo’s performance in the first half, noting that it delivered a solid result. In addition, it was pleased to see that managed services continues to build momentum and that underlying SaaS trends remain healthy. Another positive is that Morgans believes the company can de-lever its balance sheet in FY 2027, leaving it well-placed for the remainder of the decade. The Jumbo share price is fetching $9.78 at the time of writing.

Qantas Airways Ltd (ASX: QAN)

Analysts at Macquarie have retained their outperform rating on this airline operator’s shares with a trimmed price target of $12.00. According to the note, Macquarie was pleased with Qantas’ performance during the first half. It highlights that the Flying Kangaroo’s earnings were ahead of its expectations thanks to strong performances from Jetstar and Qantas Domestic. This reflects new fleet benefits for Jetstar and stronger Domestic yields. Looking ahead, the broker is expecting further earnings growth as Qantas reaps the benefits of its fleet renewal and cost discipline. The Qantas share price is trading at $9.92 this afternoon.

The post Brokers name 3 ASX shares to buy today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• What is Morgans saying about Jumbo Interactive and Tabcorp shares?
• Should I buy Qantas shares after their 9% decline?
• How high can the DroneShield share price climb in 2026?
• Forget DroneShield shares, this ASX drone stock could rocket 30%
• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended DroneShield, Jumbo Interactive, and Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Jumbo Interactive. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Zip Co Ltd (ASX: ZIP) shares are bouncing back on Friday afternoon to $1.94, a gain of 5.3% at the time of writing.

The buy now, pay later (BNPL) provider is clawing back some of this year’s heavy losses, which still stand at 41%.

Markets don’t seem to be reacting to a single catalyst today. Investors just see the current share price as a buying opportunity, driving Zip shares higher.

Sharp sell-offs, short rallies

Zip operates across Australia, New Zealand, and the US. It gives the company geographical diversification that smaller rivals lack. As a result, its embedded finance products and merchant partnerships continue to grow transaction volumes.

Over the past few weeks, Zip shares have been one of the more volatile names on the ASX. They have been swinging from sharp sell-offs after disappointing full-year results and negative sentiment to periodic rallies that leave traders scratching their heads.

Share buyback of $50 million

One of the biggest new developments is the company’s decision to implement a $50 million on-market share buyback. This will kick off in early March and will run for up to 12 months.

It appears management believes the 40% plunge this year so far has pushed Zip shares into undervalued territory.

With a strong balance sheet behind it, the company sees an opportunity to deploy surplus capital and back its shares. It’s effectively returning value to shareholders.

Strong growth, cautious signals

On the earnings front, recent results showed strong first-half growth and partial guidance upgrades. Still, the market was zeroing in on a few cautious signals.

Revenue margin slipped to 7.9% as the faster-growing, lower-margin US business accounted for more transaction volume. Net bad debts also ticked up slightly to 1.73% of TTV, still within targets of the Zip-board.

Investors were also digesting guidance that second-half cash EBITDA is expected to match the first half. This could mean that profit growth may plateau rather than accelerate.

Credit and macro risks

Risks that keep many brokers and fund managers cautious haven’t disappeared. The broader buy now, pay later landscape faces regulatory change in key markets.  

Competition from entrenched players has also intensified, and the spectre of rising credit losses has increased if consumers tighten their belts.

Credit and macro risks are as real today as they were six months ago. The ordinary ups and downs of quarterly earnings in consumer finance are amplified for a stock that has lost a great deal of trust and seen heavy selling from momentum-driven funds.

What next for Zip shares?

Analyst outlook is generally optimistic. Most brokers see upside if Zip can convert new products like flexible pay-in-2 options into sustainable revenue.

Jefferies sees this year’s share price weakness as a buying opportunity. They recently upgraded Zip shares to a buy with a $4.20 price target. This implies 118% upside over 12 months.

UBS remains bullish too, keeping its buy rating and a $4.50 target, pointing to roughly 132% potential gains over the next 12 months.

The post Why Zip shares are bouncing back 5% today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today
• Zip, CSL and BHP among CommSec’s most-traded ASX shares
• 5 oversold ASX shares to buy before the end of February
• Why I’d buy and hold these 5 ASX 200 shares until 2036
• This expert thinks the Zip share price is a buy and could rise 140%!

Motley Fool contributor Marc Van Dinther has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Every now and then, I like to reset my thinking.

If I had zero exposure to the market today and had to build an ASX share portfolio from scratch, what would I actually buy? Not based on what I already own. Not based on tax considerations. Just a clean slate and a long-term mindset.

Here’s how I’d approach it today.

Start with a core ETF foundation

I wouldn’t begin with individual stock picking if starting fresh.

I’d start with a broad global exchange-traded fund (ETF) like the Vanguard MSCI Index International Shares ETF (ASX: VGS).

To me, this is the simplest way to instantly gain exposure to more than 1,000 stocks across developed markets. It gives me access to global leaders in technology, healthcare, consumer brands, and industrials.

I’d likely allocate around 40% of the portfolio here.

Then I’d add an Australian option such as the Vanguard Australian Shares Index ETF (ASX: VAS).

That provides exposure to local banks, miners, healthcare companies, and retailers, plus the added benefit of franked dividends. I’d probably allocate another 30% here.

At this point, 70% of the portfolio is diversified, low-cost, and built for the long term.

Add high-quality ASX growth shares

With the core in place, I’d then layer in individual ASX growth stocks that I believe can outperform over time.

One would be Hub24 Ltd (ASX: HUB). I like the structural shift toward independent advice platforms and the operating leverage as funds under administration grow.

Another would be ResMed Inc. (ASX: RMD). Healthcare demand is long-term and global, and I think its digital ecosystem adds stickiness beyond devices.

And I’d likely include WiseTech Global Ltd (ASX: WTC). Despite recent volatility, I still believe its global logistics platform has a long growth runway.

These wouldn’t dominate the portfolio. But collectively, they would add growth potential beyond the index.

I wouldn’t ignore income

Even in a growth-focused portfolio, I’d want some dependable income.

A name like Transurban Group (ASX: TCL) would make sense to me. Long-dated infrastructure assets and inflation-linked tolls provide some stability.

That income could either be reinvested for compounding or used as dry powder during market pullbacks.

Foolish takeaway

If I had to start again today, I’d build a diversified ETF core and then layer in a handful of high-quality ASX growth stocks.

It may not be the most exciting way to invest. But it could be the most effective.

The post If I had to build an ASX share portfolio from scratch today, here’s how I’d do it appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• In Wilsons Advisory’s ideal portfolio, what are the 10 top stock picks?
• If I could only buy and hold a single ASX stock, this would be it
• The boss of which tech company has just bought $1m worth of shares?
• 3 strong ASX dividend stocks for retirees to buy
• Why this expert thinks the WiseTech share price can rise 80% in the next 12 months

Motley Fool contributor Grace Alvino has positions in Hub24, Transurban Group, and Vanguard Australian Shares Index ETF. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Hub24, ResMed, Transurban Group, and WiseTech Global. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended ResMed, Transurban Group, and WiseTech Global. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Hub24 and Vanguard Msci Index International Shares ETF. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is having a subdued finish to the week. In afternoon trade, the benchmark index is down slightly to 9,170.7 points.

Four ASX shares that are not letting that hold them back are listed below. Here’s why they are rising:

4DMedical Ltd (ASX: 4DX)

The 4DMedical share price is up 7.5% to $4.00. Investors have been buying the respiratory imaging solutions provider’s shares following the release of its half-year results. 4D Medical reported a 1% decline in revenue to $2.8 million and an adjusted net loss of $16.2 million. The latter was an improvement of 18% on the prior corresponding period. At the end of the period, the company had a pro forma cash position of $206.2 million. Looking ahead, the company highlights that its recently approved CT:VQ product has a major market opportunity. It said: “CT:VQ addresses a substantial market opportunity, with over one million nuclear VQ scans performed annually in the U.S. at an average reimbursement of approximately US$1,150 per scan, representing an initial addressable market exceeding US$1.1 billion annually in the U.S. alone (estimated at over US$2.6 billion globally).”

Block Inc (ASX: XYZ)

The Block share price is up 28% to $93.95. This has been driven by the release of the payments giant’s full-year results and the announcement of major job cuts. For the 12 months ended 31 December, Block’s gross profit increased 17% to US$10.36 billion. This reflects a 21% jump in Cash App gross profit to US$6.34 billion and a 9% lift in Square gross profit to US$3.94 billion. But the big news was Block’s founder and CEO, Jack Dorsey, revealing a massive reduction in its workforce. He said: ” Today we shared a difficult decision with our team. We’re reducing Block by nearly half, from over 10,000 people to just under 6,000. […] The core thesis is simple. Intelligence tools have changed what it means to build and run a company. We’re already seeing it internally. A significantly smaller team, using the tools we’re building, can do more and do it better. And intelligence tool capabilities are compounding faster every week. I don’t think we’re early to this realization. I think most companies are late.”

PEXA Group Ltd (ASX: PXA)

The PEXA share price is up 6.5% to $15.23. This morning, this property settlements technology company released its half-year results. It reported a 10% increase in revenue to $215.3 million and a 33% jump in group NPATA to $40.3 million. PEXA’s CEO, Russell Cohen, said: “PEXA delivered a strong result in the first half in FY26, underpinned by record transaction volumes in Australia, disciplined cost management and continued progress in the UK.”

Weebit Nano Ltd (ASX: WBT)

The Weebit Nano share price is up 3% to $4.88. This follows the release of the semiconductor company’s half-year results. Weebit Nano reported record half-year revenue of $5.6 million. This means it is on track to achieve its full-year revenue guidance of $10 million. Weebit Nano’s CEO, Coby Hanoch, said: “The first half of FY26 has marked Weebit’s strongest start to a fiscal year in the company’s 10-year history as technical and commercial momentum continues to build.”

The post Why 4DMedical, Block, PEXA, and Weebit Nano shares are launching higher today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Why are Block shares rocketing 30% on Friday?
• Block Q4 2025 earnings: Profit jumps as AI transformation begins
• PEXA Group posts 1H FY26 earnings
• 35 ASX All Ords shares with ex-dividend dates next week
• Why money laundering law changes will be a boon for this property tech company

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Block and PEXA Group. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended PEXA Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

It’s a tight race at the moment, but Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) shares have handed back the crown of biggest ASX stock to BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP).

In afternoon trade on Friday, the BHP share price is down 0.5% at $57.49. That gives the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) mining giant a market cap of $292 billion.

But with CBA shares down a sharp 2.2% at this same time, trading for $173.38 apiece, the big four bank’s market cap has fallen to $290.4 billion.

Battle of the ASX titans

It was only on 11 February that CommBank unseated BHP to again become the biggest ASX stock by market cap.

And BHP had only just reclaimed that title on 27 January. Before that, CBA had a lengthy run of around a year and a half as top dog on the exchange.

But the past two weeks have seen investors steadily bid up the Aussie mining giant while gradually bidding down Australia’s biggest bank.

Indeed, since market close on 12 February, CBA shares are down 3.1%, while BHP shares have gained 10.4% over this time.

What’s been moving BHP and CBA shares?

BHP and CBA both reported their half-year earnings results (H1 FY 2026) this month. And both ASX 200 stocks enjoyed a big share price boost on the day those results were reported.

CBA shares closed up 6.8% on 11 February, following the bank’s half-year results release. And shares gained another 5.4% the following day.

Investors were piling into the ASX 200 bank stock after CBA beat consensus estimates by delivering a cash net profit after tax (NPAT) of $5.45 billion, up 6% from H1 FY 2025.

And the big four bank drew the interest of passive income investors when management declared a fully-franked interim dividend of $2.35 per share. That was up 4% from the interim dividend payout in FY 2025.

But following those two days of outsized gains, CBA shares just couldn’t keep pace with investors’ resurgent interest in BHP.

The ASX 200 miner reported its half-year earnings results on 17 February.

BHP shares closed up 4.7% on the day, with the company reporting an 11% year-on-year increase in revenue to US$27.90 billion. And on the bottom line, BHP achieved a 22% increase in underlying profit to $6.20 billion.

With profits up, management increased the fully-franked interim dividend by 30.2% to AU$1.03 per share.

The BHP share price is up 43.9% in a year. CBA shares are up 11.1% over this same period.

The post Game on! BHP retakes biggest ASX stock crown as CBA shares sink appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• BHP share price has 20% more growth to come: expert
• In Wilsons Advisory’s ideal portfolio, what are the 10 top stock picks?
• Why I’d buy CBA and these ASX 200 shares in March
• 35 ASX All Ords shares with ex-dividend dates next week
• 9,200 points: ASX 200 hits fresh new record high

Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended BHP Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) share price is $57.50, down 0.4% on Friday after a historically significant week for the miner.

The ASX 200’s largest mining share ascended above its previous all-time record of $54.55, set in mid-2021, on Monday.

From there, the share price kept climbing and has risen by almost 7% in the space of just five days, and on no news at all from the miner.

The BHP share price peaked this week at $58.29 during intraday trading on Thursday.

That is now the highest price the miner has ever traded at in its 140-year history as a listed company.

In the year to date, BHP shares have risen by just over 25%.

That’s 5x the rate of the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO), which is up 5%.

In short, BHP shares are on fire — and there’s another 20% growth to come, according to one analyst.

On Wednesday, Jason Fairclough of Bank of America put a 12-month price target of $68 on BHP shares.

What’s most exciting about this analyst’s tip is that the guy has form.

Last month, Fairclough was the first expert to suggest that BHP shares could go into the late $50s in 2026.

Look how that worked out.

BHP share price soars 25% in 2026

Here at The Fool, we’ve been closely tracking the BHP share price since the start of the new year (‘cos we’re nerdy like that).

Fairclough put out a note in mid-January tipping that BHP shares could rise to $56 within a year. His previous target had been $49.

At the time, five other analysts had also recently updated their price targets.

All of them, except Barclays, were tipping the late $40s range for the BHP share price. Barclays’ price target was $50.12.

Over ensuing weeks, Goldman Sachs raised its price target on BHP shares to $57.70, while Morgan Stanley increased it to $56.50.

And Fairclough went to $57.

BHP shares cracked the $50 mark for the first time in two years on 27 January.

Then the mining share hovered between $49 and $52 for a couple of weeks.

Then came BHP’s 1H FY26 report and a $4.3 billion silver streaming deal, both announced on 17 February, which added serious fuel to the mining stock’s fire.

1H FY26 result turbocharges share price

The ASX 200 iron ore and copper mining giant reported a 28% profit increase to US$5.64 billion for 1H FY26.

The news forced the brokers to go back to their models to update their price targets. Fairclough lifted his target to $60.

On Monday, the BHP share price surpassed its mid-2021 record to reach a new high of $54.75.

On Wednesday, we received news that Fairclough had reiterated his buy rating and lifted his 12-month target on BHP shares to $68.

Citi also updated its price target on Wednesday, lifting it from $49.60 to $53.41 while keeping a hold rating.

On Tuesday, Barclays lifted its target to $52.84 and maintained its hold rating.

According to TradingView, there are 16 analysts with 12-month targets on BHP shares, ranging from $35.43 to $67.89.

Since the day of the 1H FY26 report, the BHP share price has risen 14%.

Stay tuned for what happens next!

The post BHP share price has 20% more growth to come: expert appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

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In afternoon trade, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is on course to record a small decline. The benchmark index is currently down slightly to 9,170 points.

Four ASX shares that are falling more than most today are listed below. Here’s why they are dropping:

Bapcor Ltd (ASX: BAP)

The Bapcor share price is down 47% to 90.5 cents. This morning, the auto parts retailer’s shares returned from a trading halt after completing the institutional component of its $200 million equity raising. The struggling retailer raised $157 million from institutional investors at a 65% discount of 60 cents per new share. The company’s new CEO, Chris Wilesmith, said: “Raising $200M of equity will improve our financial flexibility and business resilience in the current market conditions and provide headroom to focus on ‘getting the engine running’ to improve our operating performance and execution.” The retail component of the entitlement offer, which is fully underwritten, is expected to raise a further $43 million.

Brainchip Holdings Ltd (ASX: BRN)

The Brainchip share price is down 7% to 13 cents. Investors have been selling the embattled semiconductor company’s shares after it released its full-year results. Brainchip reported revenue of US$1.9 million for the 12 months and a massive operating loss of US$21.7 million. Brainchip’s founder and director, Peter van der Made, said: “We recognize that the ultimate measure of our strategy is commercial success. The foundations we continue to build in 2026 – from silicon validation to reference designs – are the essential drivers of our commercial success, and we are executing this strategy with full conviction. We remain deeply committed to the success of this Company and look forward to your continued engagement.”

Coles Group Ltd (ASX: COL)

The Coles share price is down 9% to $20.20. This follows the release of the supermarket giant’s half-year results. For the 27 weeks ended 4 January 2026, Coles reported a 2.5% lift in sales revenue to $23.6 billion and a 12.5% jump in profit after tax (excluding significant items) to $676 million. This was short of expectations. For example, Morgans was expecting a 3.5% increase in revenue and a 16.5% jump in underlying net profit after tax to $699 million.

Harvey Norman Holdings Ltd (ASX: HVN)

The Harvey Norman share price is down 8% to $5.81. This morning, this retail giant released its half-year results and reported a 6.9% increase in sales revenue to $5.16 billion and a 16.5% lift in profit after tax to $321.9 million. While this looks strong on paper, it was a touch short of consensus expectations.

The post Why Bapcor, Brainchip, Coles, and Harvey Norman shares are dropping today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Harvey Norman. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.