Tag: Stock pick

BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) shares are a popular option for investors.

But with the mining giant’s shares rising strongly over the past 12 months, is it too late to invest?

Let’s see what brokers are predicting for the Big Australian’s shares between now and this time next year.

The last 12 months

Firstly, as mentioned above, BHP shares have been strong performers over the past 12 months.

Thanks to strong copper prices and robust iron ore prices, investors have bid the mining giant’s shares over 50% higher since this time last year.

As a comparison, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) has delivered a return of approximately 14% over the same period.

This means that $10,000 invested in BHP would have turned into over $15,000. And that doesn’t include the dividends that the miner has paid over the period.

Clearly, BHP shares have been a very good investment for investors. But what about the next 12 months?

Broker predictions for BHP shares

Firstly, it is worth highlighting that BHP is scheduled to release its third quarter update on Wednesday before the market open.

As a result, there is a high chance that many brokers will be re-evaluating their recommendations and price targets should BHP fall short of expectations or outperform them.

For now, here is a quick summary of what brokers are predicting for the miner’s share price.

The team at Citi currently has a neutral rating and $54.00 price target on the miner’s shares. This is a touch below where they currently trade.

Macquarie and UBS also have neutral ratings on BHP’s shares but with $53.00 and $52.00 price targets, respectively.

Bernstein has a market perform rating and $48.00 price target on its shares.

Morgans is a fan of the miner but doesn’t see enough value on the table for a buy rating. It currently has a hold rating and $53.80 price target on its shares.

Over at Ord Minnett, its analysts have an accumulate rating and $54.00 price target on them.

Lastly, Morgan Stanley is the only major broker with the equivalent of a buy rating. Its overweight rating and price target of $57.50 implies modest upside over the next 12 months.

Overall, at present, it seems that the broker community largely sees BHP shares as reasonably fully valued at current levels after its strong run since this time in 2025.

The post What are brokers predicting for BHP shares over the next 12 months? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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• Forget BHP shares! Buy these ASX dividend shares instead for passive income
• Where I’d invest on the ASX for passive income right now
• BHP vs Coles shares: Which is the better buy this week?

Citigroup is an advertising partner of Motley Fool Money. Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended BHP Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

In afternoon trade, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) has given back its early gains and is on course to record a decline. At the time of writing, the benchmark index is down 0.25% to 8,930.4 points.

Four ASX shares that are falling more than most today are listed below. Here’s why they are dropping:

ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: ANZ)

The ANZ share price is down 2% to $37.21. This morning, analysts at Morgans reaffirmed their sell rating on the banking giant’s shares with a reduced price target of $30.72. Commenting on its recommendation, the broker said: “We revise our forecasts ahead of ANZ’s 1H26 result in May and reflecting on the recent updates provided by NAB and WBC. FY26-28F EPS downgraded by 6-7%. Target price reduced 6% to $30.72/sh. SELL retained given c.-15% downside at current prices, including 4.4% cash yield.”

Challenger Ltd (ASX: CGF)

The Challenger share price is down 1.5% to $8.27. This follows the release of the annuities company’s third-quarter update. Challenger revealed that funds under management fell 10% over the quarter to $104.5 billion. This was driven largely by net outflows of about $8 billion. Challenger’s managing director and CEO, Nick Hamilton said: “In a period of global volatility and where institutional allocators have continued to reduce exposure to active equity management, we saw funds under management reduce.”

Hub24 Ltd (ASX: HUB)

The Hub24 share price is down 8% to $87.96. Investors have been selling the investment platform provider’s shares following the release of its third-quarter update. Hub24 reported platform net inflows of $4 billion for the third quarter of FY 2026. This represents a 9% increase on the prior corresponding period when excluding large migrations. However, this was around 8% short of analyst expectations. Total funds under administration (FUA) reached $151.7 billion at the end of March. This represents a 22% increase on the prior corresponding period. Once again, this was a touch short of the market’s expectations.

Lynas Rare Earths Ltd (ASX: LYC)

The Lynas Rare Earths share price is down over 2.5% to $19.84. This is despite the rare earths producer reporting third-quarter sales revenue growth of 115% to $265 million. Lynas’ managing director and CEO, Amanda Lacaze, said: “Our ramp up has delivered strong production and sales outcomes, with key initiatives positioning Lynas for the future and strengthening business resilience.”

The post Why ANZ, Challenger, Hub24, and Lynas shares are dropping today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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• Lynas Rare Earths shares in focus after record revenue and new supply deals

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Hub24. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has recommended Lynas Rare Earths Ltd. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Challenger and Hub24. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

ASX shares have come under pressure over the past three months as conflict in the Middle East hikes inflation and interest rates.

The All Ordinaries Index (ASX: XAO) is trading in the red on Tuesday morning, down 0.2% at the time of writing. But the index has climbed just over 7% higher in the past month as Australian sharemarkets regain some momentum.

Here are three ASX shares tipped to keep going, and brokers tip upsides of 100% or higher over the next 12 months.

Myer Holdings Ltd (ASX: MYR)

Myer shares have been dragged down by inflation woes and market volatility so far in 2026. The latest downturn comes directly off the back of operational issues and profitability headwinds in late 2025. But the ASX retailer posted solid first-half financial results in March, which implies that the business has its operating costs under control and its strategic initiatives are gaining traction. At the current trading price of just 29 cents a piece, brokers widely view the ASX shares as oversold and undervalued. Market Index data shows most brokers have a strong buy rating on the shares and tip an average 100% upside to 58 cents per share over the next 12 months.

Lotus Resources Ltd (ASX: LOT)

Lotus shares spiked at an 18-month high of $3.24 in mid January, and then crashed over 62% to an all-time low of $1.23 in late March. The Australian uranium company with interests in Malawi, Africa, completed a $76 million capital raising in February to help strengthen its balance sheet after a tough period. Investors quickly became concerned that the company could be unable to deliver profits without needing more cash. But sentiment shifted when the uranium company announced a new milestone. Orano Chimie-Enrichissement has confirmed that it will accept the uranium ore concentrate from Lotus’ Kayelekera Uranium Mine. At the time of writing, the ASX shares are up 1.4% to $1.58, and brokers tip another 101.13% upside ahead to an average target price of $3.32.

Qoria Ltd (ASX: QOR)

Qoria is a small-cap cybersecurity company that offers online safety technology for children. This includes school and parental controls. Qoria aims to become the global leader in children’s digital safety and well-being within three years. The ASX company reached 30 million students in 32,000 schools and earns a significant annual recurring revenue from ongoing school contracts. In its half-year FY26 result, Qoria announced a 25% increase in revenue and a 68% hike in EBITDA. And brokers think the strong rate of expansion can continue. At the time of writing on Tuesday morning, the shares are up 3.17% to 32 cents per share. Market Index shows brokers have a consensus strong buy rating on the ASX shares and an average 69 cents target price. That implies a huge potential 111.69% upside at the time of writing.

Temple & Webster Group Ltd (ASX: TPW)

Temple & Webster is another retail company that has faced significant headwinds recently. Investors took their gains in late 2025 and early 2026 after a huge mid-year price rally. Meanwhile, over the past few months, inflation concerns have led its customers to tighten their purse strings. The company posted a strong half-year FY26 result, but seemingly missed high expectations. But its outlook is strong, and it has robust growth plans in place. The consensus is that the shares are now oversold and undervalued. At the time of writing, the ASX shares are down 0.9% to $6.61. But analysts tip an average upside of 125.3% to $14.91 over the next 12 months.

The post 4 ASX shares tipped to fly 100% to 125% higher appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Samantha Menzies has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Temple & Webster Group. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Myer and Temple & Webster Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) has been subdued over the past week as ongoing tension in the Middle East continues to weigh heavily on Australian shares.

At the time of writing on Tuesday morning, the index has climbed 0.7% higher, but it is still down 0.6% over the past week.

While many ASX 200 shares are expected to climb higher over the next year as confidence returns, analysts tip some to take a u-turn over the next 12 months.

Here are three of them.

APA Group (ASX: APA)

APA is Australia’s largest energy infrastructure company, owning and operating an extensive portfolio of gas, electricity, solar, and wind assets.

The company is also a major owner and operator of Australia’s gas distribution network, including pipelines, gas-fired power stations, and storage facilities. It currently transports more than half the natural gas used in Australia. 

Since listing on the ASX in 2000, APA Group has substantially grown its energy assets. In more recent times, it has added solar farms to its portfolio. 

The group’s shares have soared higher this year off the back of business expansion and some impressive half-year FY26 results.

At the time of writing, the shares are 0.4% higher and trading for $9.98 a piece. The latest share price movement means the shares are now 10% higher for the year-to-date and 21% higher over the year.

But it looks like analysts are now concerned that the ASX 200 company’s shares are now at or above fair value. Market Index data shows most brokers rate the shares as a hold (three out of six) and another two rate the stock as a sell. The average target price is $8.89, which implies 11% downside over the next 12 months.

Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA)

CBA shares have flown higher in 2026, despite being considered overpriced for some time now.

Analysts consensus is that the ASX 200 bank’s shares price is overvalued relative to its peers, and that its bumper price tag isn’t supported by its business fundamentals. 

CBA’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, at the time of writing, is 28.69, which is much higher than other Australian banks. 

At the time of writing, CBA shares are trading 0.5% higher at $181.13 a piece. This morning’s uptick means the shares are now 12% higher for the year-to-date. They’re also now 8% higher over the past 12 months.

But broker consensus is still for a strong sell rating, and an average 28% downside ahead to $129.82. Some analysts think the bank’s shares could drop as low as $90 over the next 12 months.

Westpac Banking Corporation (ASX: WBC)

Westpac is another major big four Australian bank which has seen its share price exceed fair value. 

In a trading update last week, Westpac said that the supply shock from disruption to the energy market is expected to cause a hike in inflation and interest rates.

The bank said that a slower economic environment will be challenging for some of its customers. Following the update and poor outlook expectations, some brokers have revised their stance on the stock to a sell rating.

At the time of writing, Westpac shares are flat at $40 a piece. This morning’s increase means the shares are now 3% higher over the year-to-date and 28% higher than a year ago.

Brokers rate the ASX 200 bank shares as a strong sell, with an average $35.40 target price. At the time of writing that implies 12% downside ahead. 

The post 3 ASX 200 shares tipped to tumble 10% (or more) in the next 12 months appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Samantha Menzies has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Apa Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Shares in ASX biotech Starpharma Holdings Ltd (ASX: SPL) have hit a new 12-month high after the company announced positive news regarding one of its drug candidates.

Novel cancer treatment being tested

The company said in a statement to the ASX on Tuesday that it had met with the US Food & Drug Administration (FDA) in what is called a Type C guidance meeting and had received positive feedback on the proposed clinical development strategy and design of the first-in-human (FIH) phase 1 clinical study for its DEP HER2 radiotherapy candidate.

The company said regarding the drug candidate:

DEP HER2 is a HER2 receptor-targeting dendrimer conjugate with a lutetium-177 radionuclide payload. Starpharma is developing DEP® HER2 for the treatment of locally advanced or metastatic HER2-overexpressing gastric/gastro-oesophageal junction cancers and other HER2 expressing advanced cancers in patients who have received prior HER2-targeted therapy.

The company said over-expression of HER2 is a key driver of aggressive breast and gastric cancers, and there were limited treatment options “after progression, resistance, or toxicity from current HER2-directed therapies”.

The company added:

The FDA confirmed that patients with advanced HER2-expressing cancers who have exhausted available HER2-directed therapies represent a population with significant unmet medical need, meaning that there is potential to pursue Fast Track designation and other accelerated development pathways for DEP HER2 in the future.

Starpharma said it intends to conduct a Phase I study in Europe, initially involving up to 15 patients, to assess safety and tolerability, among other factors.

The company said the FDA had confirmed that clinical data generated outside the US could be used to support future US-based clinical studies under an Investigational New Drug (IND) application

Milestones being met

Starpharma Chief Executive Cheryl Maley said DEP HER2 was a key strategic asset for the company.

She added:

We are particularly excited by the encouraging data generated to date, which have shown important benefits in targeted delivery for radiotherapeutics. “This FDA feedback is an important milestone, providing regulatory clarity and validation for the proposed clinical development pathway and marking the exciting transition from preclinical to clinical development. The guidance provides confidence that our current preclinical package, together with the data generated in the forthcoming first-in-patient study, would support a subsequent IND application and clinical development in the US.

Starpharma shares were 5.8% higher on the news at 72 cents. The shares have traded as low as 8.2 cents over the past year.

Starpharma was valued at $286.2 million at the close of trade on Monday.

The post This ASX biotech’s shares just hit a new 12-month high, up more than 700% over a year. Here’s why appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• $10,000 invested in this ASX healthcare share a year ago is now worth $36,500

Motley Fool contributor Cameron England has positions in Starpharma. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Electro Optic Systems Holdings Ltd (ASX: EOS) shares are charging higher again on Tuesday.

The stock is up 7.2% to $10.72, adding to a powerful run over the past week. Gains are now pushing close to 20% across just a few sessions.

Zoom out, and the move becomes far more extreme.

One year ago today, EOS shares closed at $1.175. What has followed since then is one of the most aggressive re-ratings seen on the ASX in recent years.

Why the market piled in

The backdrop has been building for a number of months.

Global defence spending is rising, and the shift is not for the short-term. Governments are committing more capital to counter-drone systems, automated weapons, and high-energy laser capability.

EOS sits directly in that firing line.

The company has built a contract base that is starting to carry real weight. It finished FY25 with an unconditional order book of around $459 million, giving clear visibility into future work.

New orders have continued to land, particularly across remote weapon systems. At the same time, the pipeline for high-energy laser contracts has kept attention locked in.

Funding has also been addressed, with a $100 million facility now in place to support growth.

The swings have been just as big

Earlier this year, EOS shares collapsed toward $5 after a short-seller report triggered a loss of confidence.

That drop was followed by a rapid recovery as new contracts, funding support, and operational updates came through.

More recently, the stock pulled back from its March peak near $11.80 before pushing higher again this week.

That pattern has repeated several times. Very fast moves up, resets, then another push higher.

Why momentum is still holding

The key difference now sits in the underlying position of the business.

There is a larger order book, more contract wins coming through, and stronger funding support than what existed a year ago.

Demand is also being driven by factors outside the company’s control. Defence budgets are rising globally, and counter-drone capability has become a priority.

That keeps attention on companies already operating in those segments.

What $10,000 would be worth today

A $10,000 investment at $1.175 would have bought roughly 8,510 shares.

At today’s price of $10.72, that holding would now be worth about $91,200. That is a gain of more than 800% in 12 months.

Put another way, the position has added more than $80,000 in value over a single year.

Moves of that size are rare on the ASX, especially over such a short period. It shows how quickly sentiment and expectations can shift.

Foolish takeaway

EOS has delivered one of the biggest runs on the ASX over the past year.

The gains have been backed by rising demand, contract momentum, and a shift in how the market values the business.

Volatility remains high, but so does attention.

From here, the focus shifts to delivery and whether the next leg can match what has already played out.

The post If you invested $10,000 in this ASX defence stock 1 year ago, here’s how much you’d have now appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

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Motley Fool contributor Aaron Teboneras has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Electro Optic Systems. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) shares are down 0.21% to 8,934.2 points on Tuesday.

Among the 11 market sectors, technology is in the lead today, up 0.5%, amid a sharp rally for the sector this month.

The energy sector is the laggard, down 1% today, as the world awaits a second round of talks between the US and Iran.

Meanwhile on the The Bull this week, two experts give us their views on three ASX 200 shares.

Let’s check them out.

Aristocrat Leisure Ltd (ASX: ALL)

The Aristocrat share price is $48.61, down 0.6% today and down 24% over the past six months.

Dylan Evans from Catapult Wealth has a buy rating on this ASX 200 gaming share.

Evans said:

Aristocrat’s share price has fallen considerably this calendar year, driven partly by the fear of artificial intelligence (AI) competition and currency related issues.

While AI does increase the risk of competition via new entrants, particularly in the online space, the highly regulated nature of the industry provides some protection for Aristocrat.

We believe any risk to Aristocrat’s position is overblown, and this weakness presents an opportunity to buy a company with a strong history of earnings growth at the lower end of its historic multiples range.

Lovisa Holdings Ltd (ASX: LOV)

The Lovisa share price is $24.65, down 0.8% today and down 36% over six months.

A rebound appears underway for this ASX consumer discretionary share.

The Lovisa share price has risen 17% over the past month alone.

Christopher Watt from Bell Potter has a hold rating on Lovisa shares.

This global fashion and jewellery accessories retailer continues to deliver a strong store roll-out and resilient sales growth, supported by its global expansion strategy.

However, in our view, much of its growth is already reflected in the company’s valuation, with execution risk increasing as the store base matures.

While margins remain robust and the brand continues to resonate with consumers, the pace of expansion may moderate over time.

Lovisa remains a high quality retailer, but at current levels, a more balanced risk-return profile justifies a hold rating.

Bendigo and Adelaide Bank Ltd (ASX: BEN)

The Bendigo Bank share price is $11.03, down 0.5% today and up 4% in the year to date.

Watt has a sell rating on this ASX 200 financial share, explaining:

The market responded positively to the company’s third quarter trading update for fiscal year 2026.

Unaudited cash earnings were up 7.6 per cent on the first half quarterly average. The net interest margin of 1.98 per cent was up 6 basis points on the second quarter of 2026.

In our view, catalysts to drive improvement from here are limited.

The risk-reward profile lags other peers, so we would be inclined to cash in gains in this volatile environment.

The post Buy, hold, sell: Aristocrat, Lovisa, Bendigo Bank shares appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Bronwyn Allen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Lovisa. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Bendigo And Adelaide Bank. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Lovisa. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The tech wreck for ASX 200 tech shares appears to be over, with a strong rebound playing out since 31 March.

Investors participated in a major sell-off of ASX 200 tech shares over the seven months to March this year.

Last year, investors were worried about high stock valuations and whether artificial intelligence (AI) capex would pay off.

This year, updates to Anthropic’s AI assistant, Claude, inspired fear that AI could destroy software-as-a-service (SaaS) companies.

The S&P/ASX 200 Information Technology Index (ASX: XIJ) nearly halved in value between 29 August and 30 March.

Then came the rebound.

ASX 200 tech shares stormed 13% higher last week, and are up another 0.7% so far this week.

Christopher Watt from Bell Potter says concerns about the impact of AI on SaaS businesses like Xero Ltd (ASX: XRO) are “overblown”.

The good news is that presents opportunities to buy the dip.

Today, S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) shares are down 0.26%, with technology among five out of 11 market sectors in the green.

On The Bull this week, two experts gave buy ratings on two ASX 200 tech stocks.

Let’s check them out.

Xero Ltd (ASX: XRO)

The Xero share price is $82.87, up 0.88% today and down 46% over the past 12 months.

Watt explains his buy rating on this ASX 200 tech share:

This accounting software provider remains a high quality business, underpinned by strong subscriber growth and increasing average revenue per user through product expansion.

Xero continues to improve operating leverage as the business scales up globally, with margins expected to expand in response to cost discipline.

Importantly, Xero is transitioning from a growth-at-all-costs model to one focused on profitability and cash generation, which should support a re-rating in valuation.

With a large addressable small-to-medium sized market and increasing penetration of digital accounting, Xero is well positioned to deliver sustained double-digit earnings growth.

We believe concerns related to the impact of artificial intelligence are overblown, and the share price sell-off presents a compelling buying opportunity.

NextDC Ltd (ASX: NXT)

NextDC shares remain in a trading halt at $14.12 apiece due to a $1.5 billion capital raise announced yesterday.

Learn more about the capital raise here.

The capital raise follows a $1 billion wholesale offer of subordinated hybrid securities earlier this month.

The NextDC share price has risen 13% over the past month, and is up 35% over 12 months.

John Athanasiou from Red Leaf Securities gives this ASX 200 tech share a buy rating.

He said:

Australia’s leading data centre operator provides connectivity and colocation services to cloud, enterprise and government clients across Australia and the Asia Pacific.

Its network of certified facilities underpin critical digital infrastructure amid surging demand for cloud, artificial intelligence and high performance computing.

NextDC recently launched a $1 billion hybrid securities offer to fund expansion. A strong forward order book reflects institutional confidence in its long term growth.

The company continues to build new facilities and sign strategic partnerships, positioning it to capture structural tailwinds in digital transformation and infrastructure demand.

NextDC shares are expected to resume trading tomorrow.

The post 2 ASX tech shares to buy as sector rockets back: experts appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Bronwyn Allen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Xero. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Xero. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Worley Ltd (ASX: WOR) shares have been making headlines today after the company flagged a $30–40 million EBITA hit for FY26 from Middle East disruptions. 

As reported this morning, the company released updated FY26 guidance, taking into consideration ongoing conflict in the Middle East. 

What did Worley report?

• No project cancellations in the Middle East so far; projects continue with some delays
• Estimated adverse impact of $30–40 million on FY26 underlying EBITA from Middle East conflict
• Underlying EBITA margin (excluding procurement) still expected at 9.0–9.5% for FY26
• Aggregated revenue growth in FY26 still targeted above FY25
• Delays to commencement and awards of new projects in the Middle East region

Management said the extended duration of the conflict and continued uncertainty is resulting in further delays to existing Middle East-related projects and the commencement and award of new projects in the region.

In relation to our previously disclosed FY26 Group outlook it is now unlikely Worley will achieve growth in underlying EBITA in FY26. 

However, we continue to expect the underlying EBITA margin (excluding procurement) to be within a range of 9.0-9.5% and we continue to target higher growth in aggregated revenue than FY25.

Initially, this morning, the announcement led to a 3.5% drop for Worley shares.

However since then, the price has recovered and now sits more than 3% higher during Tuesday’s trade. 

What did Morgans have to say?

Following the announcement, the team at Morgans provided updated guidance on the ASX 20 stock.

The broker said Worley has indicated that it is now “unlikely” to achieve its prior guidance for EBITA growth in FY26. 

This comes following a softer-than-expected 1H26 segment result. Looking ahead, WOR should see some medium-term support from Middle East repair activity and a broader uplift in global upstream hydrocarbon spending driven by renewed energy security concerns.

However, consensus already embeds strong growth into FY27, and risks persist, including project concentration risk associated with larger EPC work, and a structural shift in upstream hydrocarbon capex toward subsea and shale where WOR is underweight.

As a result, the broker reduced EBITA forecasts by ~5% across the forecast period. 

Morgans lowers price target 

In a note out of Morgans today, the broker also said it has lowered its target price for Worley shares to $11.60. 

It was previously $12.20. 

From today’s stock price hovering around $11.46, the updated target indicates the ASX 200 shares are now trading close to fair value. 

The post Is this ASX 200 share a sell after announcing a $30-40 million EBITA hit? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Aaron Bell has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) shares are edging lower today.

Shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) mining giant closed yesterday trading for $55.69. During the Tuesday lunch hour, shares are swapping hands for $55.48 apiece, down 0.4%.

For some context, the ASX 200 is down 0.2% at this same time.

Taking a step back, BHP shares have gained 52.2% over 12 months, racing ahead of the 14.3% one-year gains delivered by the benchmark index.

Atop those capital gains, BHP stock also trades on a 3.5% fully franked trailing dividend yield.

And the Aussie mining giant will be in sharp focus tomorrow, following the scheduled release of its March quarter (Q3 FY 2026) production results.

What might investors expect from the ASX 200 miner’s March update?

The two core commodities that could materially move BHP shares tomorrow are copper and iron ore.

At its half-year results (H1 FY 2026), BHP reported underlying earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) from its copper division of US$8.0 billon. That was up 59% year-on-year, and it marked the first time the copper produced more than half (51% in this case) of BHP’s underlying earnings.

Underlying half year EBITDA from its iron ore division came in at US$7.5 billion, up 4% from H1 FY 2025.

And with copper prices up 42% over the past 12 months, currently at US$13,275 per tonne, the red metal is likely to gain be a big earnings contributor.

Commenting on expectations for BHP’s results, eToro market analyst Josh Gilbert said:

So far, BHP is tracking well on production, with iron ore guidance for FY26 holding at around 292 million tonnes. Meanwhile, copper is expected to land in the top half of its 1.9 to 2.0 million tonne range, thanks to strong performances at Escondida and Antamina.

On the copper front, Gilbert noted:

The recent decision to extend the mine life at Escondida out to FY31, and the push into the Vicuna joint venture with Lundin Mining in Argentina, show just how serious BHP is about building a pipeline that could deliver two million tonnes of attributable copper a year by the 2030s.

As for iron ore, he added:

Iron ore remains the cash engine, with prices held up at around US$85 a tonne in the first half. While Chinese steel demand has moderated, India is increasingly picking up the slack as a source of structural growth. Any sign of recovery from China will matter for BHP’s full-year earnings picture.

And Gilbert noted that BHP shares have been catching increased investor interest of late. He said:

For investors, they’ll be looking to see if this week’s update shows whether BHP’s copper pivot is on track, whether iron ore is holding up, and if it’s on course to meet its full-year guidance. Local retail investors are clearly backing the story, with BHP appearing on eToro’s Q1 ‘top risers’ list.

Which brings us back to our headline question…

Should you buy BHP shares today?

Red Leaf Securities’ John Athanasiou recently ran his slide rule over the ASX 200 mining stock (courtesy of The Bull).

“BHP is one of the world’s largest diversified miners, with high quality assets in iron ore, copper and energy minerals,” he said. “The company generates strong cash flows and dividends, benefiting from its scale and operational efficiency.”

But Athanasiou isn’t ready to hit the buy button just yet, issuing a hold recommendation on BHP shares.

He concluded:

However, BHP’s performance is closely tied to volatile commodity cycles, particularly iron ore prices and global demand, which can cap near term valuation expansion.

While long-term fundamentals in key metals remain robust, with electrification and decarbonisation trends supporting copper demand, the stock is fairly priced and may trade sideways until clearer commodity drivers emerge.

The post Should you buy BHP shares ahead of the miner’s production update? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended BHP Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.