Tag: Stock pick

In afternoon trade, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is on course to record a decline. The benchmark index is down 0.3% to 8,901.5 points.

Four ASX shares that are not letting that hold them back are listed below. Here’s why they are rising:

Amcor (ASX: AMC)

The Amcor share price is up 6% to $69.30. This morning, analysts at Morgans responded positively to the packaging giant’s quarterly update. It has retained its buy rating with a slightly trimmed price target of $75.80. It said: “Following the renegotiation of several customer contracts on better terms, segment performance should improve in 2H26. AMC also noted that discussions around portfolio optimisation are progressing well, and we view any future announcement in this area as a potential positive catalyst for the stock.”

Lovisa Holdings Ltd (ASX: LOV)

The Lovisa share price is up 4.5% to $32.19. This may have been driven by a broker note out of Citi. According to the note, the broker has retained its buy rating and $38.45 price target on this fashion jewellery retailer’s shares. Citi expects Lovisa to deliver sales growth ahead of consensus estimates during the first half of FY 2026.

Regal Partners Ltd (ASX: RPL)

The Regal Partners share price is up 5% to $3.06. Investors have been buying the fund manager’s shares after it announced an on-market buyback program of up to $75 million. It stated: “The decision to implement a buy-back program reflects the strength of the RPL balance sheet and the continued delivery of operating cash flows and demonstrates the Board’s and management’s confidence in RPL’s outlook for continued profitable growth. The Board believes that a buy-back program is appropriate as part of its overall capital management strategy and remains focused on maximising shareholder returns, whilst preserving balance sheet strength and ensuring that RPL maintains the ability to pursue strategic growth opportunities.”

SKS Technologies Group Ltd (ASX: SKS)

The SKS Technologies share price is up over 10% to $3.90. This morning, this electrical technologies and digital infrastructure specialist announced two big contract wins. This has led to SKS upgrading its revenue guidance to $340 million (from $320 million) and net profit before tax guidance to $34 million (from $28.8 million). The company’s CEO, Matthew Jinks, commented: “The revised outlook is based on a combination of new contract awards, a further record level of $325 million of work on hand, and a realistic confidence in future conversions from pipeline to contract award.”

The post Why Amcor, Lovisa, Regal Partners, and SKS shares are pushing higher today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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• Brokers reiterate their buy recommendations following Amcor’s result
• Why Amcor, Brazilian Rare Earths, Northern Star, and Pinnacle shares are racing higher today
• Amcor earnings: Net sales rocket 68% on Berry deal; guidance reaffirmed
• Where I’d invest in ASX shares if the RBA increases the interest rate

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has positions in Lovisa. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Lovisa. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Amcor Plc. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Lovisa and Sks Technologies Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL) shares are marching higher today.

Shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) biotech stock closed yesterday trading for $181.70. As we head into the Thursday lunch hour, shares are changing hands for $182.97 apiece, up 0.7%.

For some context, the ASX 200 is down 0.2% at this same time.

Today’s outperformance will come as welcome news to longer-term shareholders, who’ve watched the stock plunge 32.3% over the past 12 months. Losses which will have only been modestly softened by the two unfranked dividends the company paid out over this time, totalling $4.522 a share.

At the current share price, CSL shares trade on an unfranked trailing dividend yield of 2.5%.

2026, however, is shaping up better for the biotech giant.

After closing at multi-year lows on 6 January, CSL stock has gained 7.2%.

We’ll look at why Morgans’ Damien Nguyen believes CSL can keep outperforming in 2026 below.

But first…

Why did the ASX 200 biotech stock get slammed in 2025?

Looking back on 2025, we can point to two days that caused most of the carnage for stockholders.

First, on 19 August, CSL shares closed down a sharp 16.9% following the release of the company’s FY 2025 results.

While a lot of the financial metrics were strong, ASX investors were decidedly less than happy with management’s announcement of plans to spin off CSL’s Seqirus segment – one of the world’s largest influenza vaccine businesses – into a separate ASX-listed company.

That plan was later paused as CSL waits for unfavourable conditions in the United States influenza vaccine market to improve before moving forward with the demerger.

The next major hit came on 28 October. CSL shares crashed 15.9% on the day after management reduced the company’s full-year FY 2026 guidance.

On 19 August, CSL had forecast that it would achieve full-year revenue growth (in constant currency) in the range of 4% to 5%. And guidance for net profit after tax before amortisation (NPATA) and excluding non-recurring restructuring costs was forecast to increase between 7% to 10%.

CSL’s new full-year revenue growth guidance (in constant currency) was revealed to be in the range of 2% to 3%, down from the prior guidance of 4% to 5%.

FY 2026 guidance for growth in net profit after tax before amortisation (NPATA) and excluding non-recurring restructuring costs was cut to 4% to 7%, down from the prior range of 7% to 10%.

Why now could be an opportune time to buy CSL shares

With the ASX 200 biotech stock down 32.6% since 18 August, Morgans’ Nguyen believes now could be an opportune time to snap up some shares (courtesy of The Bull).

“This biopharmaceutical giant offers a stronger risk/reward profile after a period of share price underperformance,” Nguyen said, citing the first reason you might want to buy CSL shares today.

“Plasma collections are rising, costs are normalising and earnings momentum is improving,” he added.

As for the third reason the ASX 200 stock could be set for a sustained rebound in 2026, Nguyen said, “Recovery at CSL Behring, a blood products division, remains on track and the influenza vaccination division Seqirus continues to provide defensive earnings.”

Nguyen concluded:

The current valuation sits well below long term averages despite fundamental improvement. This sets up an attractive long term capital growth story. Catalysts for a share price re-rating include an earnings recovery and margin expansion.

The post 3 reasons to buy CSL shares today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• 1 reason I’m never selling CSL shares
• What can investors expect from ResMed, Cochlear and CSL shares this reporting season?
• 3 Australian stocks that are my best buy and holds for 2026
• 10 most traded ASX shares among 1 million Aussie investors last year
• 3 ASX 200 large-cap healthcare shares just re-rated by experts

Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended CSL. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended CSL. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Despite trading conditions Retail Food Group Ltd (ASX: RFG) has described as “challenging”, at least one broker says there are serious gains to be made in buying the company’s shares.

Retail Food Group earlier this week put out a statement to the ASX updating the market on its debt refinancing and its expected first-half results.

The company said it had refinanced its debt with a new $41.2 million facility with Washington H. Soul Pattinson & Company Limited (ASX: SOL), with the new facility providing another $7.5 million of headroom to finance its growth plans. The new debt was at an interest rate of 9%.

Difficult start to the year

The company also said that it expected the first half underlying EBITDA to come in at $9 to $10 million, down from $16 million for the first half in the previous year.

This was due to challenging trading conditions during the second quarter, a lack of certain one-offs that would not be repeated during this period, and a lower-than-anticipated contribution from newer Beefy’s outlets.

The company added:

Earnings were also impacted by franchisee support initiatives relating to the above, including maintenance of wholesale coffee prices despite higher raw material costs, particularly green coffee beans.

Retail Food Group also explored a potential sale of the Brumby’s Bakery business during the half, but decided to retain the business.

Executive Chairman Peter George said:

While Brumby’s attracted considerable interest from multiple parties, we were ultimately not convinced that the options available would be in the best interests of shareholders, franchisees, or team members at this time. Brumby’s remains profitable and is an important contributor to RFG’s performance, with this decision providing certainty for all brand stakeholders.

In the earnings guidance, the company said cost initiatives were under, which were expected to deliver $1.2 to $1.8 million in savings this financial year and increase to $5 to $7 million during FY27.

The company added:

As a result of the above, RFG expects earnings to improve in 2H26 vs 1H26 and is guiding to FY26 Underlying EBITDA of $20.0-24.0m.  

Analysts see plenty of upside

The Shaw team, in a research note to clients, said the company’s valuation going forward was likely to be driven by how well it executes its growth tactics, both organically and via new store openings.

They added:

RFG has identified initiatives that can grow the business organically such as, implementation of new systems, conversion of legacy branded outlets into focus branded outlets, engagement of multi-site operators and expansion of company-owned stores. RFG management has indicated that it can leverage its systems, knowledge, network and overheads to bolt-on acquisition of branded food/beverage outlets. Value-accretive acquisitions could be a key valuation driver for RFG.

Shaw and Partners has a price target of $2 on the shares compared with $1.28 currently. If achieved, this would deliver a 57% return to shareholders.

Retail Food Group was valued at $80.2 million at the close of trade on Wednesday.

The post Looking for better than 50% upside? This fast-food company could be worth a look appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• 3 reasons to buy CSL shares today
• ASX bank shares: One I’d buy and one I’d avoid
• Why this ASX gold producer could be on the cusp of its next breakout move
• This software firm could deliver almost 50% returns, one broker says
• Are Beach Energy shares a good buy for passive income today?

Motley Fool contributor Cameron England has positions in Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Company Limited. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Company Limited. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Company Limited. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

ASX bank shares have had a slow start to the year, with investor sentiment weighing heavily on share prices, especially for the majors.

This week’s interest rate hike and concerns that inflation is spiralling again have created more headwinds for the sector. The spotlight is well and truly on where ASX bank shares will go from here.

But some parts of the sector have a far rosier outlook than others. Here’s one ASX bank stock I’d buy right now, and one I’d avoid.

I’d buy Judo Capital Holdings Ltd (ASX: JDO) shares

Judo is an Australian bank built to provide financial services and lending to small and medium-sized businesses (SMEs) with a turnover under $100 million.

The bank was founded in 2016, received its banking license in 2019 and was listed on the ASX in 2021. So it’s new in comparison to the Aussie majors. 

What I like about Judo is that it sits apart from the rest of the banks in the sector. Unlike the big four, Judo is purely focused on SMEs, doing so through relationship-based banking rather than mass mortgages or consumer loans.

This business model means that the bank is more sensitive to economic changes, but it also means it has a higher growth potential because it has good customer engagement and, therefore, business momentum.

In its latest results for the first half of FY26, the bank reported strong loan growth and confirmed it was on track to meet its gross loans and advances (GLA) guidance of $14.2 to $14.7 billion in 2026. Judo also plans to boost its profit before tax to $190 million. 

At the time of writing on Thursday morning, the bank’s shares are down 0.53% to $1.89 a piece. That represents a 5% increase for the year to date. 

I’d avoid Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) shares

I’m concerned that CBA shares are still well above fair value and that they could be due for a price correction this year. In fact, I think they could crash below $100 in 2026. 

CBA’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio at the time of writing is 24.86, which is much higher (and therefore more expensive) than most other banks’.

The banking giant is also facing ongoing margin pressure from intense market competition in lending and deposit products. And the latest interest rate hike could pile even more pressure on the business to perform.

In the short term, an interest rate hike means more earnings for CBA. But in the medium to long term, it can lead to stronger competition and even an increase in mortgage stress. As CBA is heavily exposed to mortgage lending, this could put huge pressure on its share price.

At the time of writing on Thursday morning, CBA shares are 0.5% higher at $153.85. For the year to date, they’ve dropped 2.01%. 

The post ASX bank shares: One I’d buy and one I’d avoid appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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• The best Australian dividend stocks to buy and hold forever
• Don’t buy CBA shares until this happens
• What should you do with your CBA shares in 2026?
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• 10 most traded ASX shares among 1 million Aussie investors last year

Motley Fool contributor Samantha Menzies has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The share price of Resolute Mining Ltd (ASX: RSG) is little changed today, slipping 0.22% to $1.332. This comes despite the company releasing an important announcement to the ASX.

Over the past 12 months, Resolute shares have surged more than 260%, ranking among the strongest performers across the ASX gold sector. That strong run may help explain why today’s news has not sparked an immediate rally.

Let’s unpack what was released today.

A key approval finally secured

According to the update, Resolute announced it has been awarded a key mining permit for its Doropo Gold Project in Cote d’Ivoire.

The permit is the final government approval required before the project can move into development and eventual production. It has been granted for an initial 20-year term, with the option to extend.

Management described the approval as a major step toward building Doropo into the company’s next core producing asset. Once operational, Doropo is expected to play a central role in lifting group gold output beyond 500,000 ounces per year by the end of 2028.

Doropo shapes the next phase of growth

A definitive feasibility study (DFS) released late last year outlined strong economics and a long mine life.

At a gold price assumption of US$3,000 per ounce, the study delivered a post-tax net present value of about US$1.46 billion. It also outlined an internal rate of return close to 50%.

Average annual gold production is forecasted at around 170,000 ounces over the life of the mine, with higher output expected in the early years.

Cash costs and all-in sustaining costs (AISC) are projected to sit well below current spot gold prices, giving the project a solid buffer if gold prices soften.

Resolute plans to fund development using its existing balance sheet, which should limit the need for large equity raisings.

Construction is expected to begin in the first half of 2026, with first gold targeted for the first half of 2028.

Existing operations provide support

While Doropo sits at the centre of the company’s growth plans, it already operates producing gold mines in Mali and Senegal.

These assets generate ongoing cash flow and provide operational diversification across West Africa. Management has been focused on improving reliability, managing costs, and using higher gold prices to strengthen the balance sheet.

Foolish Takeaway

Despite the importance of the update, investors appear to be taking a wait-and-see approach.

Nonetheless, the Doropo mining permit removes a key source of uncertainty and allows the project to move into the development phase.

The next phase will focus on delivery, including construction progress, cost control, and updates on funding and timelines.

The post Why this ASX gold producer could be on the cusp of its next breakout move appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

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• ASX gold shares go crazy as gold price rips toward US$5,000 on Friday
• Up 222% in a year, $2.8 billion ASX 200 gold stock delivers ‘very strong’ fourth quarter
• Resolute Mining shares have surged 217% in a year. Can the momentum last?

Motley Fool contributor Aaron Teboneras has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

It wouldn’t be a great surprise if you’d never heard of IODM Ltd (ASX: IOD), considering its modest size and relative lack of profile.

But the team at Shaw and Partners have had a look at the company and initiated coverage with a buy recommendation, while also adding the caveat that it’s a high-risk stock.

So what is IODM?

As the Shaw analysts explain, IODM is a provider of accounts receivable software tailored for the education market.

The company apparently has 20 universities in the UK onboarded, or being brought onboard, “and has recently expanded into the US, Canada, Japan, Mexico and South America”, Shaw said.

The company was founded in 2008 and, Shaw said, launched its IODM connect platform in 2021 with a focus on the global education sector.

The Shaw team explained further:

Today, the growth engine is the UK. IODM is demonstrating strong momentum in this market which we believe is only likely to gain further momentum in the years ahead. With a proven platform and reputation, it seems UK universities are increasingly receptive and key foreign exchange payment partners more engaged. Building on the success in the UK, IODM has recently expanded its revenue share agreements to cover four new regions, including the US, and has also introduced a new foreign exchange payment partner, TransferMate, to broaden its reach and introduce some competitive tension. Successful execution beyond the UK could be game changing for the stock.

Growth expected to surge

The Shaw team says the company has a demonstrated track record of customer growth and expects revenue to grow at a compound annual rate of 47%.

The Shaw team added:

We forecast IODM will be cash flow positive in FY27 and Cash EBITDA positive from FY28 onwards, which compares to losing $3.5m in FY25. We believe IODM has reached an inflection where its fixed cost base is covered allowing high incremental margins to be realised. This will be a key milestone for the stock and could lead to a re-rate.

Good news released by the company recently included a deal to provide its platform to one of the “largest international student universities in the UK”, although it did not name that entity.

Shaw and Partners has a price target of 23 cents on IODM shares, compared with 15.5 cents currently.

If achieved, the price target would represent a gain of 48.4%.

The company was valued at $92 million at the close of trade on Wednesday.

The post This software firm could deliver almost 50% returns, one broker says appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• 3 reasons to buy CSL shares today
• Looking for better than 50% upside? This fast-food company could be worth a look
• ASX bank shares: One I’d buy and one I’d avoid
• Why this ASX gold producer could be on the cusp of its next breakout move
• Are Beach Energy shares a good buy for passive income today?

Motley Fool contributor Cameron England has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

2025 saw Beach Energy Ltd (ASX: BPT) shares deliver a record amount of passive income to eligible stockholders.

The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) energy stock paid a fully franked interim dividend of 3 cents per share on 31 March. If you owned shares, you’d then have received the all-time high final dividend of 6 cents per share on 30 September.

That equates to a full year passive income payout of 9 cents per share, up from 4 cents per share in 2024.

In late morning trade today, Beach Energy shares are down 2.4%, trading for $1.225 apiece. This sees the ASX 200 energy stock trading on a juicy, fully franked trailing dividend yield of 7.5%.

For some comparison, rival Aussie energy giant Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS) shares trade on a fully franked trailing dividend yield of 6.5%. And Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) shares trade on a partly franked trailing dividend yield of 5.2%.

On the share price front, Beach Energy stock is down some 18% over the past 12 months, while Santos shares are just about flat, and Woodside shares are up around 4%.

Now, that’s the year just past. As for those upcoming Beach Energy dividends…

What’s the interim dividend for 2026?

Beach Energy shares are under some pressure today after the company released its half year results for the six months to 31 December (H1 FY 2026).

The ASX 200 energy stock reported a 7% year on year decline in production to 9.5 million barrels of oil equivalent (MMboe). Revenue for the half year was down 1% to $981.7 million.

And with underlying net profit after tax (NPAT) down 8% to $219.0 million, management cut the fully franked interim dividend to 1.0 cent per share, down from last year’s 3.0 cents.

If you’d like to bank that passive income you’ll need to own shares by market close on 25 February. The stock trades ex-dividend on 26 February.

While that’s not the best start to FY 2026 for passive income, Beach Energy is forecasting a significantly stronger second half to the year, with plans to increase gas production from its Waitsia plant. That could deliver a material uptick in the final dividend.

According to Beach Energy CEO Brett Woods:

Our steady financial footing and safe operational performance through a challenging half positions Beach for an active second half, particularly as Waitsia ramps up and offshore campaigns progress.

The ASX 200 energy stock reaffirmed its fully year FY 2026 guidance of production in the range of 19.7MMboe to 22.0 MMboe.

Beach Energy shares: buy, hold, or sell?

Having recently run his slide rule over the ASX 200 energy stock, prior to today’s results release, Baker Young’s Toby Grimm said (courtesy of The Bull), “The oil and gas producer, BPT, remains constrained by its large exposure to less than favourable domestic gas markets, in our view.”

Explaining his hold recommendation on Beach Energy shares, Grimm said:

However, the continuing successful development of the Waitsia gas project in Western Australia underpins material production growth and increasing exposure to export pricing in coming years.

Relatively low debt and an improved profitability outlook substantiates our reason to hold for now.

The post Are Beach Energy shares a good buy for passive income today? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Which company does Macquarie prefer, Woodside or Santos?
• Beach Energy H1 FY26 earnings: Profit drops as costs rise and volumes slip
• Here’s 3 ASX dividend stars yielding over 5%
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Thursday
• Here’s the dividend forecast out to 2029 for Woodside shares

Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Nufarm Ltd (ASX: NUF) shares have had a tough 12 months, with the agricultural chemicals company’s share price falling sharply from its highs.

However, with the ASX 200 stock trading at $2.26 today, Bell Potter believes the outlook may be improving for investors.

Here’s what the broker is saying following Nufarm’s recent annual general meeting (AGM) update.

What is the broker saying?

Bell Potter highlights that comments made at Nufarm’s AGM point to a strong start to the new year, with management reaffirming guidance and highlighting improving conditions across key markets. The broker said:

NUF’S AGM comments were positive pointing to a strong year. We note two key AGM comments as well as recent movements in indicators:

Reaffirmation of guidance: NUF has made a positive start to the year. Reaffirming all elements of the guidance statement at the time of the FY25 result, which were: (1) Expect strong FY26e underlying EBITDA growth under normal conditions; (2) Crop protection EBITDA continuing to grow, moderating on the +18% YOY growth in FY25; (2) Seed technologies growth in EBITDA from hybrid Seed and targeting a $30m YOY improvement in the emerging platforms; and (4) Expect positive free cashflow in FY26e and net debt/EBITDA of ~2.0x (vs. 2.7x in FY25).

Bell Potter also believes FY26 is shaping up as a year of solid earnings growth, supported by a sharper focus on cash generation and balance sheet repair. It adds:

FY26 a strong year of growth: FY26 promises to be a year of strong growth in profitability. With NUF focused on free cash flow generation and delivering a significant reduction in leverage by year end.

Early indicators look supportive

The broker also highlighted early activity indicators that suggest demand conditions are improving, particularly in the higher-margin northern hemisphere crop protection markets. Bell Potter said:

Early activity indicators: In general, initial acreage reports in the northern hemisphere have been supportive of demand for crop protection products and this is indicative of increased import activity into these markets, where YTD volumes are demonstrating double digit YoY gains. Australian soil moisture profiles are below average as is the three-month outlook. Omega-3 pricing indicators remain at levels broadly consistent with those seen at the FY25 result and demonstrating double digit YoY gains.

Is it time to buy this ASX 200 stock?

According to the note, the broker has retained its buy rating on Nufarm’s shares with a price target of $3.60. Based on its current share price of $2.26, this implies potential upside of 59% for investors over the next 12 months.

Commenting on its buy recommendation, Bell Potter said:

Our Buy rating is unchanged. NUF continues to trade at a material discount to global peers (crop inputs ~9.3x FY26e EBITDA and seeds at ~10.0x FY26e EBITDA), despite favourable indicators for omega-3 returns in FY26e and demand indicators in the higher margin northern hemisphere crop protection markets looking generally supportive.

The post Bell Potter says this ASX 200 stock could rise 50%+ appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Thursday

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

As we come into reporting season, analysts have a pretty good view on where major energy companies lie, given that they report their production and revenue ahead of time.

With that in mind, we’ve had a look at Macquarie’s recent research notes to see how they rank Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) and Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS).

Firstly, though, let’s have a look at how the stocks have fared so far this year.

Santos shareholders are sitting pretty well, with the stock increasing from $6.17 to $7.07, or 14.6%, over the year to date.

In comparison, Woodside shares are up from $23.59 to $25.85, for a 9.6% gain.

What do the analysts think        

Looking at Santos first, the Macquarie team has an outperform rating on the stock and a 12-month price target of $7.77, which would be a 9.9% return from the current share price.

Keep in mind that the company is also expected to pay a 4.7% unfranked dividend yield this year.

Macquarie said it expected Santos to deliver an underlying net profit of US$1.01 billion and free cash flow from operations to come in at US$1.8 billion.

The company’s gearing has already been reported at 26.8%, which is slightly higher than the company’s target of 15% to 25% the Macquarie team said, but with Santos’ Barossa gas project off the coast of the Northern Territory now generating cash flow, “Santos’s gearing should re-enter the range in 2026”.

The Macquarie team said that now that Santos had “recovered” from the failed takeover lobbed by the XRG Consortium, the company was “derisking rapidly”, including by bringing Barossa online and soon the Pikka oil project in Alaska.

Follow-up projects could include a final investment decision at Papua New Guinea liquefied natural gas or further development at Moomba in South Australia’s Far North, they said.

The Macqaurie team said they’d also like to see “more active trading of certain assets” which could be sold to smaller players such as Beach Energy Ltd (ASX: BPT).

What about Woodside?

When it comes to Woodside, the Macquarie team expects weakness in the share price, with a price target of $25, compared with $25.85 currently.

The 6.2% dividend yield brings this up to almost breakeven.

The Macquarie team expects underlying net profit to come in at US$2.69 billion, with several non-cash items expected to boost the result.

They said the upcoming results could be interesting with regard to whether possible Chief Executive Officer candidates will step up, after it was announced that current boss Meg O’Neill will be leaving to go to BP.

And while Woodside shares underperformed versus Santos in January, Macquarie is warning the company could shed more than its franked dividend amount in value during the reporting season due to its run-up over January.

The post Which company does Macquarie prefer, Woodside or Santos? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Are Beach Energy shares a good buy for passive income today?
• Here’s 3 ASX dividend stars yielding over 5%
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Thursday
• Here’s the dividend forecast out to 2029 for Woodside shares
• 3 ASX ETFs to target following the RBA interest rate hike

Motley Fool contributor Cameron England has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has recommended BP. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) shares are down 1.18% to $51.78 at the time of writing on early Thursday morning. It means the shares are now 13.18% higher for the year to date and up 29.21% over the year. 

So if I bought $5,000 of BHP shares 5 years ago, what would it be worth now?

The miner’s shares are now trading 32.95% above where they were this time five years ago. This means that $5,000 invested back then would be worth a total of $6,647.50 today.

What happened to BHP shares this year?

The mining giant took the crown as the biggest stock on the ASX in January. BHP shares closed 2025 at $45.49 per share, but jumped 11.2% over the first month of the year to close January at $50.57. It was also one of the most-traded shares on the ASX.

The increase was mostly fuelled by the miner’s latest half-year results. It revealed it had achieved record copper and iron production for the half-year ending 31 December 2025. Its iron ore production increased 2% to 134 million tonnes, with its Western Australia Iron Ore (WAIO) operations achieving record high shipments.

Copper production was steady at 984,000 tonnes, but the miner lifted its full year FY26 copper guidance to 1,900kt to 2,000 kt (up from guidance of 1,800kt to 2,000 kt previously).

Copper prices rose 32% to US$5.28/lb and iron ore prices were up 4% to US$84.71/wmt during the same period.

Investors were clearly pleased with the result, with many scrambling to get their hands on BHP shares. 

What’s ahead for 2026?

The miner said it is focused on growing its copper and iron ore production in 2026, while also maintaining disciplined cost control. Major projects like Jansen Stage 1 are progressing, and further investments support BHP’s plans to increase copper output to 2 million tonnes within the next decade.

But, analyst sentiment is mixed on whether the miner can deliver. TradingView data shows that most (10 out of 18) analysts have a hold rating on BHP shares. Another two have a sell or strong sell rating and six have a buy or strong buy rating.

The target price is also varied. Some expect the shares to climb to $56.56 a piece over the next 12 months. This implies a potential 9.26% upside ahead, at the time of writing. Whereas others think there is potential for the shares to drop 27.36% to just $37.60 a piece by this time next year.

The post $5,000 invested in BHP shares 5 years ago is now worth… appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Samantha Menzies has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended BHP Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.