Tag: Stock pick

I think broker recommendations can be interesting when a share price has fallen but the underlying business is still moving in the right direction.

Morgans currently sees that opportunity in two ASX shares.

Both have been given buy ratings, with the broker arguing that recent weakness has created a better entry point.

Jumbo Interactive Ltd (ASX: JIN)

Jumbo Interactive shares are trading around $6.69 on Tuesday.

The lottery technology company recently reported underlying EBITDA of $85.2 million, up 25%, while underlying NPATA increased 20% to $50.6 million. That came despite another unusually weak year for large Australian lottery jackpots.

Morgans believes the result was stronger than the share price reaction suggested.

The broker noted that Jumbo’s international operations are becoming much more meaningful, with Managed Services and Prize Draws contributing $30.3 million compared with just $7 million a year earlier.

That growth helped offset a 10% decline in Australia as large jackpot activity remained soft.

There are still some uncertainties. Morgans pointed to questions around Brightstar and FY27 guidance that came in below parts of the market’s expectations.

Even so, the broker described that guidance as conservative and continues to expect Jumbo’s financial position to strengthen, forecasting a return to net cash by FY29.

Morgans has retained its buy recommendation and reduced its price target slightly from $10.25 to $9.81.

From the current share price, that implies potential upside of roughly 47%.

Sigma Healthcare Ltd (ASX: SIG)

Sigma Healthcare is another ASX share Morgans thinks has been treated too harshly by investors.

The shares are currently trading around $2.69 after falling following the company’s FY26 result.

Sigma delivered EBIT growth of more than 20%, while like-for-like Chemist Warehouse sales increased 13.4% in Australia and 12.2% internationally.

Australian growth slowed somewhat during the second half, but Morgans attributed this partly to a later start to the cold and flu season and a particularly strong comparison period.

Importantly, Sigma is targeting double-digit revenue and earnings growth in FY27.

The broker did trim its forecasts by around 3.5%, but it still believes the market reaction has gone too far.

Morgans said the post-result decline, which was also influenced by the possibility of some founders selling shares, had created an opportunity. As a result, the broker upgraded Sigma from accumulate to buy.

Its price target now sits at $3.19, down slightly from $3.30 previously.

That represents potential upside of around 19% from the current share price.

Foolish takeaway

Morgans sees upside in both ASX shares, although the investment cases are quite different.

Jumbo’s opportunity rests on international growth becoming a larger part of the business while Australian jackpot conditions eventually normalise.

Sigma, meanwhile, is still delivering strong growth following the Chemist Warehouse combination, and Morgans believes the recent sell-off has been overdone.

Based on the broker’s latest price targets, both ASX shares could have meaningful upside from here.

The post 2 ASX shares tipped to return 19% to 47% appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• UBS names its 10 top ASX picks for the next 3-6 months
• Own BHP, Woodside or Coles shares? Here’s what investors should know
• Where I’d invest $20,000 in ASX shares this spring
• Top brokers name 3 ASX shares to buy next week
• 4 ASX shares scoring upgrades in the final week of earnings season

Motley Fool contributor Grace Alvino has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Jumbo Interactive. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Jumbo Interactive. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

ASX tech shares have been through a brutal repricing, and there is strong disagreement about what comes next.

The S&P/ASX All Technology Index (ASX: XTX) is down more than 27% over twelve months.

Two names capture the argument better than the index does.

One has halved while brokers argue over what it is worth.

The other has risen while brokers and the market draw opposite conclusions from the same result.

Why ASX tech shares have been repriced

Three things happened at roughly the same time.

The Reserve Bank raised the cash rate three times this year to 4.35%, which is hard on companies valued on distant earnings.

Several high-multiple names missed expectations during reporting season.

Investors also began seriously debating whether artificial intelligence erodes software business models rather than enhancing them, a fear now nicknamed the “SaaSpocalypse”.

To illustrate the complex nature of the ASX tech market, WiseTech Global Ltd (ASX: WTC) grew FY26 revenue by 79% and underlying profit by 29%, and the shares still fell 10% on the day.

Good numbers are not being rewarded at the moment.

Xero: where the brokers disagree with each other

Xero Ltd (ASX: XRO) is down about 52% over twelve months and a long way below its $166.00 high.

The FY26 result was not the problem.

Operating revenue rose 31% to NZ$2.75 billion and annualised monthly recurring revenue climbed 37% to NZ$3.27 billion.

Free cash flow reached NZ$554 million at a 20.1% margin, and subscribers grew 11% to 4.92 million.

The complications sit underneath the headline.

Net profit fell 27% to NZ$167.4 million on Melio integration costs, and gross margin slipped from 89% to 83.9% as payments changed the revenue mix.

Roughly 5% of the register is now sold short, a record for the company.

Chief executive Sukhinder Singh Cassidy pointed to the United States as a catalyst for future growth:

Our strong full year results demonstrate Xero’s disciplined execution and macro-resilience. Our 3×3 strategy is hitting its stride, demonstrated by accelerating US growth with 110,000 new customers, including new Melio direct payments customers.

Megaport: where the brokers disagree with the market

Megaport Ltd (ASX: MP1) is a mirror image of the previous two companies.

The company’s shares sit near $16.73 and are up about 23% over twelve months.

FY26 revenue rose 37% to $312.2 million, while group annual recurring revenue jumped 62% to $395.2 million.

EBITDA reached $77.1 million on a 25% margin.

Then the market read the rest of it.

The company swung to a $39.0 million net loss, and FY27 guidance calls for capital expenditure of $1.28 billion to $1.38 billion after raising close to $1 billion.

As a result, shares fell about 20% across five sessions.

Chief executive Michael Reid saw things differently:

FY26 produced an exceptional result. Group Annual Recurring Revenue increased by 62% to $395.2 million, revenue grew by 37% to $312.2 million, and EBITDA reached $77.1 million. These are incredible results and we’re only just getting started.

Analysts have sided with him.

Megaport carries nine buy ratings with no holds or sells and an average target near $24.99.

FY27 revenue guidance of $620 million to $730 million implies growth of at least 100%.

Foolish takeaway for these ASX tech shares

All of these ASX tech shares ask you to look deep into the future to understand why these companies may be attractive investments.

Xero asks whether a business growing revenue at 31% deserves a price-to-earnings ratio near 99 while its margins compress.

For its part, investors in Megaport will be asking whether $1.3 billion of capital expenditure produces the returns management expects.

The post Xero and Megaport: 2 ASX tech shares the market can’t agree on appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• UBS names its 10 top ASX picks for the next 3-6 months
• WiseTech shares are down 62%. Why are brokers still bullish?
• Down 62%, are WiseTech shares now a buy, hold or sell?
• These ASX shares benefit from a high Aussie dollar
• Buy, hold, sell: Megaport, Xero, AMP shares

Motley Fool contributor Mark Verhoeven has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Megaport, WiseTech Global, and Xero. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended WiseTech Global and Xero. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The Insurance Australia Group Ltd (ASX: IAG) share price has tumbled further into the red on Tuesday.

At the time of writing, the insurance company’s shares are down around another 2% and are trading at $7.88 each.

Today’s decline means the shares have now fallen around 6% since Wednesday last week, down around 10% since hitting an annual high in late July, and they’re 1.5% lower for the year to date.

What is happening to the IAG share price?

There hasn’t been any price-sensitive news out of IAG recently to explain the latest sell-off. Instead, the share price decline looks like a combination of factors.

It’s most likely the result of overall ASX financial sector weakness. 

Investor sentiment has turned negative amid concerns about falling mortgage demand, a weakening housing market, and tight competition squeezing margins.

In late August, inflation data also came in much higher than expected, prompting several major banks to revise their interest rate forecasts to include another hike as early as September.

At the same time, crude oil prices increase overnight, driven by yet another escalation in the conflict between the US and Iran. Higher oil prices generally lead to higher inflation and share market volatility.

And all this has happened against the backdrop of investors continuing to digest IAG FY26 results. 

In mid-August, the company posted a 24.8% decline in its NPAT compared to FY25, and an underlying insurance profit of $1.578 billion, up from $1.542 billion in FY25. 

Investors weren’t impressed, and some analysts revised their outlooks on the stock shortly afterwards.

What do brokers tip next for the ASX insurance shares?

Market data suggests that the experts are divided about the outlook for IAG shares going forward.

Market Index data show that brokers are split between buy and hold ratings. The $8.28 average target price implies an upside of around 5% at the time of writing.

But sentiment is more mixed on TradingView. Out of 9 analysts, four have a strong buy rating, three have a hold rating, and two rate IAG shares as a sell/strong sell.

The average $8.32 target price implies an upside of around 6% at the time of writing. But the difference between the maximum and minimum target prices is wide. Some tip the shares to fall another 10% to $7.10, and some expect the shares to climb 17% higher to $9.25 over the next 12 months.

Citi recently upgraded its outlook on IAG shares to a buy following the insurer’s FY26 results. But the broker reduced its 12-month price target to $8.80, from $9.

Jefferies also renewed its buy rating on IAG shares but shaved its 12-month price target to $9.25, from $9.45.

UBS maintained its buy rating on IAG shares following the insurer’s FY26 results. The broker also reduced its 12-month price target to $9.25, from $9.45.

Jarden is more bearish. The broker downgraded IAG shares to a hold rating following IAG’s announcement, with an $8 target price.

The post Down 6%: What is going on with the IAG share price? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• ASX 200 bank shares led a financial sector rebound last week
• 16 ASX 200 shares with ex-dividend dates next week
• 8 ASX shares just upgraded by the experts
• 7 ASX 200 shares with reaffirmed buy ratings this week
• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today

Citigroup is an advertising partner of Motley Fool Money. Motley Fool contributor Samantha Menzies has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Jefferies Financial Group. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

It has been quite a turnaround for Core Lithium Ltd (ASX: CXO) shares.

The lithium stock is up another 7.58% to 35.5 cents on Tuesday, taking its gain in 2026 to almost 30%.

However, the rebound has been much bigger over the past 12 months.

Core Lithium shares have climbed around 238% over that time, recovering from a 52-week low of just 9.7 cents. They also recently traded as high as 40 cents.

And today, there is another reason for shareholders to get excited.

Finniss is back in action

According to the release, Core Lithium has produced its first spodumene concentrate from the recommissioned Finniss processing plant in the Northern Territory.

The milestone was reached within 6 months of the final investment decision (FID) and in line with the company’s September-quarter target.

The plant is still going through commissioning and optimisation, so there is more work to do before production settles into a steady rhythm. The next big milestone is the first shipment of newly produced spodumene concentrate, which is targeted for the December quarter.

Core Lithium has also used the restart to make several upgrades to the plant, including changes to the crushing circuit and screen refurbishments.

The company expects those improvements to support better recoveries and lift plant throughput by around 20% to 1.2 million tonnes a year.

Managing director Paul Brown said producing first concentrate was “another significant milestone” in the staged restart and pointed to the speed of the recommissioning work completed so far.

A lot has changed in 12 months

After such a big run, Core Lithium shares are in a very different place from a year ago.

At 35.5 cents today, the company is valued at roughly $1.15 billion and the share price is only around 11% below its recent 52-week high of 40 cents.

There has also been plenty of volatility along the way. The shares fell 9.2% last Wednesday and closed Monday at 33 cents before bouncing again today.

The Finniss restart is good news, but investors have already sent the shares much higher.

What happens next?

The next step is getting Finniss from first concentrate into steady production and, ultimately, shipments.

Ore from the Grants open pit is being used during the restart, while work on the BP33 underground mine is continuing at the same time.

After the huge rise in the share price, valuation is also definitely worth keeping an eye on.

TipRanks shows two analyst ratings from the past 3 months, with an average 12-month price target of 28 cents. That’s around 21% below where Core Lithium shares are trading today.

The post Core Lithium shares jump 8% after a milestone investors have waited months for appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Why Core Lithium, Newmont and Life360 shares are turning heads on Tuesday
• Core Lithium drilling uncovers more high-grade lithium at BP33

Motley Fool contributor Aaron Teboneras has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

S&P/ASX 300 Index (ASX: XKO) shares are down 0.6% to 8,888.5 points on Tuesday.

Among the 11 market sectors, utilities is in the lead today, up 0.2%, while technology is the laggard, down 1%.

Meanwhile, on The Bull this week, two experts share their views on three ASX 300 shares.

Let’s take a look.

Dicker Data Ltd (ASX: DDR)

The Dicker Data share price is $14.46, down 1.8% today and up 45% over 12 months. 

Mark Elzayed from Vestra Capital has a buy rating on this ASX 300 tech share. 

He said: 

This technology company distributes hardware and software solutions. It benefits from enterprise spending on AI capable servers, network upgrades and end point security hardware.

It generated gross revenue of $2.1 billion in the first half of 2026, up 14.2 per cent on the prior corresponding period. Net profit after tax of $60.7 million was up 54.1 per cent. Management has upgraded full year gross revenue guidance to between $4.3 billion and $4.4 billion, alongside profit before tax guidance of between $162 million and $165 million.

Double digit top line momentum, an appealing dividend yield and increasing exposure to AI infrastructure spending provides a bright outlook, in my view.

Polynovo Ltd (ASX: PNV)

The Polynovo share price is $1.06, up 1.4% today and down 28% over 12 months. 

Stuart Bromley from Medallion Financial Group has a hold rating on this ASX 300 healthcare share. 

Bromley said: 

The company provides dermal regeneration solutions via its NovoSorb biodegradable polymer technology.

Total revenue of $150 million in full year 2026 was up 16.1 per cent on the prior corresponding period. EBITDA of $12.1 million was up 8.1 per cent.

While growth has moderated from earlier years, the longer-term opportunity remains significant as PolyNovo expands geographically and broadens adoption across burns, trauma and complex wounds.

Flight Centre Travel Group Ltd (ASX: FLT)

The Flight Centre share price is $11.46, down 0.2% today and down 7% over 12 months. 

Bromley has a sell rating on this ASX 300 travel share. 

He explained: 

The global travel agency group delivered record total transaction volumes in full year 2026. However, underlying profit before tax of $278 million declined by 4 per cent as Middle East disruption weighed heavily on the leisure business.

We view geopolitical uncertainty, airline capacity constraints and softer consumer conditions as headwinds.

We see better risk-adjusted opportunities elsewhere.

The post Buy, hold, sell: Dicker Data, Polynovo, Flight Centre shares appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Sell alert! Why this expert is calling time on Flight Centre and CBA shares
• Experts name 3 top ASX shares to buy this week
• These are the 10 most shorted ASX shares
• Buy, hold, sell: Flight Centre, Qantas, and Wesfarmers shares
• 11 ASX 200 shares with reaffirmed buy ratings post-results

Motley Fool contributor Bronwyn Allen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended PolyNovo. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Dicker Data. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Flight Centre Travel Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Owning Telstra Group Ltd (ASX: TLS) shares has been a rewarding choice for passive income over the last few years. Its rising payouts have unlocked a growing dividend yield for shareholders.

With how the ASX telco share has drifted 13% lower from May 2026, prospective investors are now being offered a lot of potential income.

When a share price falls, it increases the dividend yield at the same rate. For example, if a business had a 5% dividend yield and the share price falls 10%, the yield becomes 5.5%. A similar sort of effect has happened with Telstra this year.

A rising dividend

While the market may not be as optimistic about the business as it was earlier this year, the dividend payments continue to grow, which I think implies the board of directors remains positive about the future and its financials.

In the FY26 result, Telstra’s board of directors decided to hike its annual dividend per share by 10.5% to 21 cents. That translates into a dividend yield of 4.4% excluding franking credits and approximately 6% including franking credits.

However, I’d say the FY26 dividend is now old news and we should look ahead to the FY27 dividend because we’re already a couple of months into the 2027 financial year.

According to the projection on CMC Invest, the business could grow its annual dividend per share by another 4.75% in FY27. This would mean Telstra could provide a dividend yield of 4.6% excluding franking credits and approximately 6.25% including franking credits in FY27.

Is the Telstra share price a buy?

I wouldn’t necessarily invest in an ASX share just for the passive income. But, if dividends are a primary focus, then Telstra shares could be a solid option.

In FY26, the company grew cash operating profit (EBIT) by 8% to $4.7 billion, underlying net profit rose 4.9% to $2.5 billion and cash earnings per share (EPS) jumped 14% to 25.5 cents.

With how the company has already invested heavily in its 5G network, I think the business’ cash earnings can continue rising at a pleasing pace, funding bigger dividends.

Its mobile earnings continue to rise. FY26 mobile income grew 3% to $11.4 billion and mobile operating profit (EBITDA) grew 3% to $5.4 billion. It saw both mobile users and average revenue per user (ARPU) increase.

I think the company’s earnings can rise again in FY27 thanks to mobile price increases.

I reckon the Telstra share price is attractive for passive income and potential long-term capital growth as Australia becomes increasingly digital.

The post Is the Telstra share price a buy for its 6.25% dividend yield? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• What happens if the ASX share market crashes just after I retire?
• How much passive income could a $500,000 superannuation balance generate?
• How much do I need in my superannuation to earn $10,000 passive income every month?
• Post-earnings: I’d buy these ASX dividend stocks for income today
• How I’d target $5,000 a year in passive income from ASX shares

Motley Fool contributor Tristan Harrison has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Telstra Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

When it comes to passive income, I think CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL) shares are often overlooked.

The biotech shares have had a bad rap recently and its share price has slumped over the past 18 months. 

It doesn’t have the highest yield among ASX dividend shares, but it does have a strong track record of growing its dividend payout over time. And that makes the CSL shares an interesting option for income-focused investors.

But what exactly does that passive income look like?

Let’s take a look.

What’s the latest out of CSL shares?

At the time of writing, CSL shares are down around 1% and changing hands at $171.90 a piece. But the shares jumped higher in mid-August after it posted an impressive FY26 earnings result. An investor rotation back into ASX healthcare shares has also helped drive its share price higher.

CSL shares are now up around 28% over the past month alone, and are nearly flat for the year-to-date.

How many CSL shares can I buy for $10,000?

At the current share price of $171.90, a $10,000 investment would buy around 58 shares. 

What dividend does the biotech stock pay its shareholders?

CSL has a long history of paying its shareholders a regular partially franked or unfranked dividend dating back to 2004. These are typically paid out every six months, in April and October.

As part of its FY26 results announcement last month, management declared an unfranked dividend of $2.277 per share. Combined with its $1.81 interim dividend paid in April, that brings CSL’s total FY26 dividend to $4.086.

At the time of writing, this translates to a dividend yield of roughly 2.4% for FY26. 

Going forward, analyst projections suggest CSL could increase its annual payout per share to US$3.10 (equivalent to AU$4.30) in FY27. That translates to a forward dividend yield of 2.5% at the time of writing.

So, what passive income can I earn off my $10,000 investment?

I’ve crunched the numbers using the estimated dividend payout figures above, to estimate roughly how much passive income investors can expect from a $10,000 investment in CSL shares.

In FY26, your 58 shares would generate around $236.98 in passive income.

If that increases its dividend to the forecasted $4.30 per share in FY27, those 58 shares would generate around $249.40 in passive income for the year.

What do brokers tip next for CSL shares?

I think there is a lot of potential for the company to grow over the next few years. CSL is operating in a high-growth market, and its blood plasma division dominates the market for rare blood disorders and immunoglobulin products.

And CSL’s latest results show that the company’s growth initiatives are starting to work.

At the moment, forecasts show the experts are mixed about the outlook for CSL shares going forward, but the majority see an upside ahead. 

TradingView data shows that 10 out of 19 have a hold rating on the stock. The other nine rate the shares as a buy/strong buy.

The average $173.04 target price implies a potential upside of around 1%, at the time of writing. But some expect the shares to jump another 20% to $206.76 over the next 12 months.

The post If I invest $10,000 in CSL shares, what passive income will I earn in FY27? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• UBS names its 10 top ASX picks for the next 3-6 months
• Are CSL shares still cheap after almost doubling since June?
• CSL led the ASX healthcare shares rebound. Can it continue?
• These ASX shares benefit from a high Aussie dollar
• CSL shares are up 94% from their low. What are brokers forecasting next?

Motley Fool contributor Samantha Menzies has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended CSL. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended CSL. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Retirement is supposed to be the point when years of saving and investing finally start paying off.

But what if the timing is terrible?

Imagine retiring, beginning to draw on your portfolio, and then watching the ASX fall sharply within the first year.

That would be uncomfortable, but I do not think it automatically ruins a retirement plan.

The early years can be particularly important

A market crash becomes more difficult when an investor is withdrawing money at the same time.

If shares fall heavily and I need to sell some of them to fund living costs, I am locking in losses while the portfolio is already under pressure.

That can leave less capital available to participate in the eventual recovery.

This is often described as sequence-of-returns risk. The order in which good and bad years arrive can have a major impact once withdrawals begin.

Two retirees could earn the same average return over a long period and still end up with very different outcomes depending on when the weakest years occurred.

I would avoid relying on forced selling

If I were approaching retirement, I would want enough flexibility that I was not forced to sell ASX shares immediately after a large fall.

That could mean keeping some cash or lower-volatility assets available for near-term spending.

It could also mean holding companies that continue generating dividends through weaker markets like Coles Group Ltd (ASX: COL) or Telstra Group Ltd (ASX: TLS), although I would never assume those payments are guaranteed.

The aim would be to give the growth side of the portfolio time to recover.

I would still keep growth investments

A crash just after retirement might tempt an investor to move everything into cash.

I would be careful about doing that. Someone retiring at 60 or 65 could still have decades of investing ahead of them. Over that timeframe, inflation can gradually erode the purchasing power of a portfolio that is too defensive.

I would still want exposure to strong ASX businesses and potentially international shares or exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that can grow earnings over time.

The balance between growth and stability may change, but I would not want retirement to mark the end of long-term investing.

Spending can also be flexible

Another tool is simply adjusting withdrawals when the ASX share market is weak.

If the portfolio suffered a large fall, I might temporarily delay major discretionary spending or take slightly less from the portfolio if my circumstances allowed.

Even small changes can reduce the pressure to sell assets at poor prices.

That flexibility becomes much easier if retirement spending has been planned with some margin for error.

Foolish takeaway

An ASX share market crash immediately after retirement would be a difficult start, but it does not have to derail the years ahead.

I would want a retirement portfolio that gives me options during weak markets rather than depending on continually rising share prices.

For me, the combination of some near-term liquidity, ongoing growth exposure, diversification, and flexible withdrawals would make a bad first year far easier to manage.

The post What happens if the ASX share market crashes just after I retire? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Is the Telstra share price a buy for its 6.25% dividend yield?
• How much passive income could a $500,000 superannuation balance generate?
• How much is needed in superannuation for $3,000 in weekly passive income?
• How much do I need in my superannuation to earn $10,000 passive income every month?
• Post-earnings: I’d buy these ASX dividend stocks for income today

Motley Fool contributor Grace Alvino has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Telstra Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

ASX 200 healthcare shares are on a roll, up by a staggering 42% since the sector began a rapid rebound, after a horror year, on 3 June.

The S&P/ASX 200 Health Care Index (ASX: XHJ) reached a 9-year low on 3 June following a 39% 12-month pummelling.

Healthcare shares tanked due to many industry headwinds, including the FX rate for companies reporting in US dollars; cost of living pressures; higher shipping and labour costs, and US regulatory uncertainty for biotech businesses. 

Value investors have since swooped in, and reassuring FY26 results and guidance during earnings season last month propelled the rebound further.

Healthcare shares are now 42% higher since 3 June versus a 2% rise for the broader S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO).

During the August earnings season, ASX 200 healthcare shares jumped 19% while the ASX 200 moved up 1.1%.

Here are 3 ASX 200 healthcare shares with buy recommendations and promising 12-month price targets from Bell Potter.

Mesoblast Ltd (ASX: MSB)

The Mesoblast share price is $2.21, down 0.9% today and steady over 12 months. 

Since 3 June, this ASX 200 healthcare share has risen 9.4%.

Bell Potter has a buy recommendation on Mesoblast shares with a $4.45 target.

This implies the Mesoblast share price could double over the next 12 months.

Analyst John Hester said: 

(All US$m) Revenues $120.2m and loss at the EBIT line -$49.9m were in line with our forecast. Ryoncil sales of $115m were at the mid-point of the guidance range.

Operating expenses $153m were dominated by R&D expense ($97m), driven by the investment in label expansion for Ryoncil and the ongoing Phase 3 trial for Rexlemestrocel in chronic lower back (CLBP).

Loss at NPAT $57.4m with net cash burn for the year -$43.8m inclusive of just -$13m in 2H26.

MSB has a long pipeline and label expansions for Ryoncil alone which we expect will come to market on a 3 to 5 year time horizon.

Pivotal moments in the short term include the interim readout on adult GvHD and the pending submission of the BLA for Rexlemestrocel in HF.

Neuren Pharmaceuticals Ltd (ASX: NEU)

The Neuren Pharmaceuticals share price is steady at $20.46 on Tuesday, and down 2% over 12 months.

Since 3 June, this ASX 200 healthcare share has streaked 51% higher.

Bell Potter has a buy rating on Neuren Pharmaceuticals shares with a $25.50 target.

This implies a potential 25% gain over the next 12 months.

Neuren Pharmaceuticals has also just started paying investors dividends.

Analyst Thomas Wakim said:

NEU remains very well capitalised with $286.5m in cash at 30-June. Considering the (1) strong cash position, (2) recent Daybue guidance upgrade, and (3) imminent Daybue launch in Europe, NEU have commenced a dividend program, starting with an interim dividend of $0.15/share (fully franked).

The dividend provides a moderate yield for shareholders, however capital growth will dominate future shareholder returns and is the reason to own the stock in our view, particularly as the binary Phase 3 readout in PMS draws closer (estimated in ~1H CY28), the result of which will largely determine whether NEU is a one-trick pony or whether they repeat the glory a second time round with NNZ-2591.

Sonic Healthcare Ltd (ASX: SHL)

The Sonic Healthcare share price is $19.44, down 0.7% today and down 15% over 12 months. 

Since 3 June, this ASX 200 healthcare share has risen 3%.

Bell Potter says ‘buy’ with a $27.50 target, suggesting a possible 41% upside ahead.

Analyst Martyn Jacobs commented:

SHL reported EBITDA of c.$1.92b (cc) which was within the guidance range of c.$1.87b – c.$1.95b.

On a reported basis, EBITDA of c.$1.93 was in line with consensus, but c.1.5% below BPe.

The result was impacted by a range of nonrecurring items that more than offset the one-off gain from the Brisbane lab sale &
leaseback transaction.

While the headline EBITDA margin was c.10bp lower than pcp, margins in the 2H showed meaningful improvement at c.19% v
c.16.7%.

The post 3 ASX healthcare shares to buy with 25% to 100% upside as sector rebound races higher appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• How much passive income could a $500,000 superannuation balance generate?
• How much do I need in my superannuation to earn $10,000 passive income every month?
• Why brokers see 85% upside for this ASX biotech stock
• Sonic Healthcare shares crash 21%: What on earth is going on?
• Why these ASX shares are worth watching closely today

Motley Fool contributor Bronwyn Allen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Sonic Healthcare. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

A $500,000 superannuation balance can start to take on a new purpose once retirement arrives.

After years of building the balance, the focus may shift towards what that money can provide each year.

There are several ways to approach that, and I would be careful not to focus on the biggest possible income number.

Start with a sustainable approach

For me, retirement income should come from investments I would still be comfortable owning for years.

That could mean holding a mixture of dividend-paying ASX shares, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and other assets rather than filling the portfolio with whichever shares currently offer the highest dividend yields.

A large dividend can be tempting, but it becomes far less attractive if the underlying business struggles and eventually cuts the payment.

I would prefer companies with dependable cash flows and a reasonable chance of at least maintaining (but preferably increasing) their dividends over time.

What could the income look like?

How much income a $500,000 balance could generate depends on how the money is invested.

At an average yield of 4%, the portfolio would produce around $20,000 a year.

A 5% yield would increase that to approximately $25,000, while 6% would generate around $30,000.

I think somewhere in that range gives investors a sensible idea of what could be possible without assuming an unusually high yield.

The income would not necessarily stay the same every year. Dividends can rise, fall, or occasionally disappear, which is another reason I would spread the portfolio across several investments.

Which ASX shares might help?

Telstra Group Ltd (ASX: TLS) could be one income holding I would consider.

Its mobile and internet services generate recurring demand, while the company has placed a growing dividend at the centre of its shareholder return plans.

Aurizon Holdings Ltd (ASX: AZJ) offers another type of income exposure through rail infrastructure and freight operations.

I might also consider Sonic Healthcare Ltd (ASX: SHL). Diagnostic testing provides exposure to healthcare demand, and the company has a long history of returning cash to shareholders.

These would only form part of a broader portfolio. I would want enough diversification that my retirement income was not overly dependent on one company or industry.

Growth still has a role

A retiree may need their superannuation to last for decades.

That means I would still want some investments capable of growing earnings and distributions over time.

Inflation gradually reduces what $20,000 or $25,000 can buy, so a portfolio that can produce increasing income has an advantage.

I would also be comfortable selling a small amount of investments when necessary rather than insisting that every dollar of retirement spending must come from dividends.

Foolish takeaway

A $500,000 superannuation balance could potentially generate somewhere around $20,000 to $30,000 a year from investments yielding between 4% and 6%.

I would be more interested in building a durable income stream than pushing for the top end of that range.

For retirement, I think a diversified portfolio with dependable income and some room for growth gives that $500,000 the best chance to keep working for years.

The post How much passive income could a $500,000 superannuation balance generate? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• $10,000 a year in passive income buying just $10k worth of ASX shares? Here’s how I’d go about it
• How much do I need in my superannuation to earn $10,000 passive income every month?
• Post-earnings: I’d buy these ASX dividend stocks for income today
• How I’d target $5,000 a year in passive income from ASX shares
• These ASX shares benefit from a high Aussie dollar

Motley Fool contributor Grace Alvino has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Telstra Group. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Sonic Healthcare. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.