Tag: Stock pick

The Australian share market is home to a large number of quality companies.

But not all of them are necessarily buys today. So, let’s see what analysts are saying about three popular ASX shares this week.

Here’s what you need to know:

CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL)

Despite CSL shares falling materially from their highs, the team at Bell Potter is not in a rush to invest. The broker has retained its hold rating on the biotech giant with a reduced price target of $155.00.

Bell Potter highlights that its shares are trading in line with peers, but estimates that its growth outlook is weaker than average. It said:

The current share price reflects a materially de-rated PE multiple of ~15x our FY27 NPAT forecast, bringing CSL in line with the global biopharma peer set which also trades at an avg PE of 15x. While CSL doesn’t face the same extent of generic/biosimilar competition as these biopharma peers, it does have a lower growth outlook of ~2.5% revenue CAGR (3yr) per our forecast compared to >4% avg for global peers.

Considering the low-growth outlook in the near-term, risk to FY26 guidance, and our below-consensus FY27 forecasts, we maintain our HOLD recommendation notwithstanding the historically low trading multiple. We don’t think CSL is out of the woods just yet. PT is lowered to $155.

Magellan Financial Group Ltd (ASX: MFG)

Over at Morgans, its analysts are positive on this fund manager ahead of its proposed merger with Barrenjoey.

This week, the broker has retained its buy rating on Magellan’s shares with a trimmed price target of $11.99. It said:

MFG has given an end-to-March 2026 quarterly FUM update. FUM (A$37.5bn) was down 6% for the quarter due to a combination of outflows across most funds and market movements. Overall this was a softer quarter at the headline level, albeit some impacts from market volatility are unsurprising. We downgrade our MFG FY26F/FY27F EPS by -1%/-8% due to slightly weaker FUM assumptions and also applying more conservatism to our future Barrenjoey earnings forecasts. Our PT falls to A$11.99 (from A$12.43).

Whilst MFG’s Investment Management performance remains patchy, we think the Barrenjoey merger fundamentally changes MFG’s overall outlook, strengthening the business and providing additional pathways for growth. MFG also retains a strong balance sheet (~A$650m of liquidity, post deal). BUY maintained.

Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS)

Lastly, Morgans thinks that this energy giant’s shares are a hold (with a $33.40) price target.

It believes its shares are fairly valued following a strong gain in response to the war in the Middle East. It said:

We downgrade our rating on WDS to HOLD (from ACCUMULATE). Owning WDS has been powerful insurance (as a hedge against supply disruption) but now trading above A$35/share and above our NAV, it has crossed over into an active wager that the crisis is more permanent than we estimate, which sadly is possible, but should this be our base case steering our strategy? No. We remove our 10% conflict premium and apply our upgraded oil/LNG deck, for a small net change in our target price, now at A$33.40 (was A$33.55).

The post Buy, hold, sell: CSL, Magellan, and Woodside shares appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• ASX 200 energy shares whipsaw amid fragile ceasefire
• Why Bendigo Bank, EBR Systems, Strickland, and Woodside shares are rising today
• What is this broker’s view on Magellan Financial Group after yesterday’s disappointing results
• What’s Bell Potter’s updated view on CSL shares?
• Why are CSL shares struggling to regain momentum?

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has positions in CSL and Woodside Energy Group Ltd. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended CSL. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended CSL. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

ASX 200 energy shares are leading the market after Israel hit Lebanon again, and the Strait of Hormuz remains at a standstill.

This follows a substantial sell-off for ASX 200 energy shares yesterday.

On Wednesday, the S&P/ASX 200 Energy Index (ASX: XEJ) dropped 7.3% after the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire.

The rest of the market celebrated the news, with the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) finishing the session 2.8% higher.

Today, we’ve seen a reversal of trends.

ASX 200 energy shares are up 2.4% while the ASX 200 is down 0.05%.

Oil prices have also rebounded today after a sharp fall yesterday.

Brent Crude is currently up 2.7% to US$97.35 per barrel.

Why are ASX 200 energy shares leading the market today?

There is uncertainty in the market as investors wonder how fresh Israeli strikes on Lebanon will impact the ceasefire.

Meanwhile, the Strait of Hormuz remains largely obstructed.

As part of the ceasefire deal, Iran agreed to allow safe passage of shipping through the Strait, coordinated by its armed forces.

On Thursday, Trading Economics analysts said:

Iranian media reported that oil tanker traffic through the strait had been suspended following the attacks, amid disputes between Tehran and the American-Israeli side over whether the truce extends to Lebanon.

A senior Iranian official also stated that three provisions of the ceasefire agreement have already been breached.

Meanwhile, US Vice President JD Vance said there are indications the strait may begin reopening as he leads a US delegation to Islamabad for direct talks with Iran this weekend.

The Strait of Hormuz is not technically closed.

However, shipping companies have chosen not to sail through it for fear of Iranian attacks and a lack of insurance coverage.

About 20% of global crude oil and gas is shipped via the Strait.

The war has triggered the worst oil shock since the 1970s.

ASX 200 energy shares whipsaw on ceasefire tensions

Let’s take a look at what’s happened with the market’s largest ASX 200 energy shares over the past two days.

On Wednesday, the Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS) share price plummeted 10.4% to close at $32.06.

Today, Woodside shares have regained 3.8% to $33.29, at the time of writing.

Yesterday, the Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) share price fell 4.6% to $7.76. Today, Santos shares are 2.5% higher at $7.95.

The Karoon Energy Ltd (ASX: KAR) share price dropped 13.4% to $1.90 on Wednesday.

Today, Karoon Energy shares are $1.98, up 4.3%.

Ampol Ltd (ASX: ALD) shares fell 4.2% yesterday to $32.12, but today they’re up 3.6% to $33.26.

The Viva Energy Group Ltd (ASX: VEA) share price tanked 9.1% to $2.42 yesterday.

Today, Viva Energy shares are $2.49 apiece, up 2.7%.

ASX 200 coal share Yancoal Australia Ltd (ASX: YAL) fell 9.8% to $7.49 on Wednesday.

Today, Yancoal shares are in the red again, down 0.1% to $7.48.

The New Hope Corporation Ltd (ASX: NHC) share price dropped 9.6% to $5.30 yesterday.

On Thursday, New Hope shares are slightly higher, up 0.2% to $5.31.

The post ASX 200 energy shares whipsaw amid fragile ceasefire appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Buy, hold, sell: CSL, Magellan, and Woodside shares
• Why Bendigo Bank, EBR Systems, Strickland, and Woodside shares are rising today
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Thursday
• ASX shares to watch as oil price crashes
• Why are Santos and Woodside shares crashing today?

Motley Fool contributor Bronwyn Allen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Not every great investment needs to be flashy. In fact, some of the best long-term performers are businesses that simply execute well year after year, steadily growing earnings and expanding their market positions.

Here are three ASX shares that may not always grab headlines but could quietly build serious wealth over time.

Aristocrat Leisure Ltd (ASX: ALL)

The first ASX share that could quietly deliver strong returns is Aristocrat Leisure.

The company has built a powerful dual-engine business. Its traditional land-based gaming division generates reliable cash flow, while its digital segment provides exposure to higher-growth opportunities.

What makes Aristocrat particularly interesting is its ability to consistently produce successful game content. In both physical machines and mobile platforms, strong titles can generate recurring revenue long after their initial release.

This blend of stability and growth gives Aristocrat flexibility. It can reinvest in new opportunities while still returning capital to shareholders.

Over time, that balance between dependable earnings and expanding digital exposure could make it a compelling long-term compounder.

UBS recently put a buy rating and $69.00 price target on its shares.

NextDC Ltd (ASX: NXT)

Another ASX share that could be worth considering is data centre operator NextDC.

In many ways, it is helpful to think of NextDC as a backbone provider for the digital economy. As businesses move more workloads to the cloud and demand for data processing and AI grows, the need for secure, high-performance infrastructure continues to rise.

What sets NextDC apart is its focus on premium, interconnected facilities. These sites allow customers to link directly with cloud providers, networks, and partners, creating an ecosystem effect that is difficult to replicate.

While the company is still in a heavy investment phase, this infrastructure build-out could underpin earnings growth for many years.

This week, the team at UBS put a buy rating and $22.55 price target on NextDC’s shares.

REA Group Ltd (ASX: REA)

A third and final ASX share that could be a long-term winner is REA Group.

REA Group operates a digital marketplace that has become deeply embedded in Australia’s property ecosystem. Real estate agents rely on its platforms to reach buyers, giving the company significant pricing power and a dominant competitive position.

But the interesting part of the story is how REA Group continues to monetise that position. Premium listings, data-driven insights, and value-added services are all helping drive revenue per customer higher over time.

Even when property volumes fluctuate, REA Group has shown an ability to grow earnings through yield expansion and product innovation. Over the long run, this makes it less of a cyclical business than it might first appear.

Morgan Stanley currently has an overweight rating and $230.00 price target on its shares.

The post 3 fantastic ASX shares that could help build long-term wealth appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• How to invest $1,000 per month in ASX shares and build long-term wealth
• 3 ASX 200 shares that could quietly compound for years
• Morgans names two ASX 200 shares to buy and one to sell this week
• Why Bank of Queensland, Guzman Y Gomez, NextDC, and Telix shares are racing higher today
• Why is everyone talking about Telix, Bank of Queensland and NextDC shares today?

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has positions in Nextdc and REA Group. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The gold price tumbled from US$5,390.45 per ounce on 2 March to US$4,263.55 on 23 March before it turned around.

On Thursday, gold is currently trading at US$4,714 per ounce.

If gold is a safe-haven asset, meaning investors typically flock to it in times of strife, why did the war cause a 21% plunge in price?

Specialist global gold and precious metals fund manager, Sprott, provides some insights.

Why the gold price tanked when the Iran war began

Sprott Managing Partner, Paul Wong, said gold’s strong pull back over the first three weeks of March surprised investors.

In an article, the market strategist said:

The decline has occurred against a backdrop that, under traditional frameworks, should have been supportive: elevated geopolitical risk, a major energy shock, rising volatility across asset classes and growing concerns about global growth.

Yet gold has fallen sharply.

Wong explained that the sell-off reflected a rush to liquidity, not a weakening in the drivers of gold’s bull run.

We believe the move reflects a broad liquidity-driven selling event, driven by macro reserve-flow dynamics and forced deleveraging across investment portfolios.

In short, gold is being sold because liquidity is being raised, not because its role as a strategic asset has diminished.

Central banks have been diversifying their reserves away from the US dollar and into gold since 2022.

The catalyst for this change was Russia’s foreign exchange reserves being frozen after it invaded Ukraine.

Central bank buying was the primary driver behind a 24% surge in the gold price in 2024.

Gold ripped by another 65% in 2025.

Over time, investors noticed gold’s ascendency and started ploughing their own funds into the metal.

The gold price reached an all-time closing high of $5,589.38 per ounce on 28 January.

Economists describe central bank purchasing as a long-term structural change that will support the gold price well into the future.

Disrupted shipping impacted reserve flows

Wong said Gulf Cooperation Council nations are some of the world’s largest accumulators of reserves, funded mainly by oil exports.

The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz halted energy revenues and stalled sovereign gold buying.

Wong points out that gold “does not require outright selling to fall; the loss of incremental buying pressure is sufficient”.

When marginal demand falls from very strong to nonexistent, prices adjust sharply even in the absence of any forced selling.

Investors also sold their positions in gold

Wong said investors selling their positions in gold exacerbated the speed and size of the price fall.

The dominant driver here has been degrossing and deleveraging.

Rising volatility across rates, foreign exchanges (FX), equities, and commodities triggered mechanical risk reduction across hedge funds, systematic strategies, commodity trading advisors (CTAs), and leveraged portfolios.

In these environments, selling is rarely gradual.

Positions are cut quickly, correlations rise and liquidity is raised as the primary objective.

Wong said capital “rotated aggressively into the energy complex”, drawing investment flows away from gold and other metals.

Lessons of historical gold sell-offs

Wong said structural pressures were building toward renewed monetary support, which is usually a powerful catalyst for the gold price.

In both 2008 and 2020, gold initially sold off sharply during periods of acute financial stress.

In each case, gold was sold not because it failed as a hedge but because it was one of the last remaining sources of liquidity.

Once forced selling ran its course and policy responses followed, gold rallied strongly to all-time highs within months of market lows.

Today’s environment shares key features with those episodes: rising cross-asset volatility, tightening financial conditions and growing pressure on the global monetary system.

The post Why did the Iran war smash the gold price? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Down 43% this year, this ASX tech stock is now back at January 2025 levels
• Buy, hold, sell: CSL, Magellan, and Woodside shares
• ASX 200 energy shares whipsaw amid fragile ceasefire
• 3 fantastic ASX shares that could help build long-term wealth
• Why Bendigo Bank, EBR Systems, Strickland, and Woodside shares are rising today

Motley Fool contributor Bronwyn Allen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is having a subdued session on Thursday. In afternoon trade, the benchmark index is down a fraction to 8,949.6 points.

Four ASX shares that are not letting that hold them back are listed below. Here’s why they are rising:

Bendigo and Adelaide Bank Ltd (ASX: BEN)

The Bendigo and Adelaide Bank share price is up 8% to $11.33. This morning, the regional bank revealed the second phase of the Productivity Program to accelerate its progress towards its 2030 strategy. This includes a seven-year technology service partnership with Infosys (NYSE: INFY), which will significantly improve its IT service delivery capability and provide access to enhanced capabilities, software engineering, and AI talent to deliver greater capacity to innovate. These changes are expected to result in an annual run rate expense benefit of approximately $65 million to $75 million, which will be realised by FY 2028. In addition, it released a trading update which revealed unaudited cash earnings of $137.9 million during the third quarter. This is up 7.6% on the quarterly average during the first half.

EBR Systems Inc (ASX: EBR)

The EBR Systems share price is up 7% to 70.5 cents. This follows the release of a first-quarter update from the medical device company this morning. EBR advised that it expects to report revenue in the range of US$2.25 million to US$2.36 million for the first quarter of 2026. The company’s CEO, John McCutcheon, said: “In Q1 2026, we made impressive progress across both our commercial and clinical programs. Case volumes increased strongly during the quarter, reflecting growing physician experience, expanding site readiness and the steady execution of our Limited Market Release.”

Strickland Metals Ltd (ASX: STK)

The Strickland Metals share price is up 9% to 23.5 cents. This has been driven by the release of positive assay results from diamond drilling at the Obradov Potok prospect in the Rogozna Project, Serbia. Strickland Metals’ managing director, Paul L’Herpiniere, commented: “Following recent discoveries at Red Creek and Kotlovi, these results continue to highlight the scale and endowment of the broader Rogozna system. We are looking forward to undertaking follow-up drilling as part of the 2026 field season targeting the interpreted core of the system at Obradov Potok, where we see a compelling opportunity to make a major new discovery.”

Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS)

The Woodside Energy share price is up 4% to $33.27. This is despite there being no news out of the energy giant on Thursday. However, it is possible that investors believe Woodside shares were oversold yesterday after oil prices sank in response to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

The post Why Bendigo Bank, EBR Systems, Strickland, and Woodside shares are rising today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Buy, hold, sell: CSL, Magellan, and Woodside shares
• ASX 200 energy shares whipsaw amid fragile ceasefire
• Why is everyone talking about Sandfire, Bendigo Bank, and DroneShield shares on Thursday?
• ASX bank stock jumps 7% on strategic partnerships and trading update
• Up 188% in a year, why is this ASX All Ords mining stock surging again today?

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has positions in Woodside Energy Group Ltd. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Bendigo And Adelaide Bank. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

In afternoon trade, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is on course to record a small decline. At the time of writing, the benchmark index is down slightly to 8,949.6 points.

Four ASX shares that are falling more than most today are listed below. Here’s why they are dropping:

Orora Ltd (ASX: ORA)

The Orora share price is down 20% to $1.57. Investors have been selling this packaging company’s shares following the release of a trading update. Partly due to the war in the Middle East, Orora’s Saverglass has been underperforming expectations. Orora now expects FY 2026 underlying EBIT for Saverglass to be in the range of 63 million euros to 68 million euros. This is down from its previous guidance of broadly in line with FY 2025 EBIT of 79.2 million euros. It notes that shipping routes and overland access have been disrupted in the Middle East, forcing Orora to transition its facility into a closed-loop hot operation. This means the furnace is kept running, but no bottles are produced.

Select Harvests Ltd (ASX: SHV)

The Select Harvests share price is down 8% to $3.69. This morning, this almond producer revealed the surprise resignation of its CEO, David Surveyor, after three and a half years leading the company. The release notes that Mr Surveyor will remain with the company to work through his six-month notice period and assist with an orderly transition. Surveyor commented: “It has been a privilege to lead Select Harvests over the past three years. I am proud of the transformation we have achieved together. Our people have lifted strategy and execution across the business, from improving our horticultural practices to step changing our processing capability and redefining our approach to market.”

Tamboran Resources Corp (ASX: TBN)

The Tamboran Resources share price is down 17.5% to 26 cents. This has been driven by the completion of the institutional component of an equity raising. The natural gas company has raised US$103 million (A$147.1 million) of gross proceeds via a registered underwritten public offer. Tamboran Resources’ CEO, Todd Abbott, said: “We are entering what will be the most active two‑year period in the Beetaloo Basin to date, including the delivery of first gas sales in the third quarter of 2026 and the continued delineation of gas resources across our Beetaloo East and Beetaloo West acreage.”

WiseTech Global Ltd (ASX: WTC)

The WiseTech Global share price is down 10% to $38.92. This is despite there being no news out of the logistics solutions software provider on Thursday. However, it is worth noting that the tech sector is a sea of red today, with heavy declines being seen across the board. This has led to the S&P/ASX All Technology index dropping a sizeable 4.5%.

The post Why Orora, Select Harvests, Tamboran, and WiseTech shares are sinking today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Why this ASX energy stock just crashed 17% after a blockbuster year
• Why is this ASX 200 share sinking 16% today?
• Orora updates FY26 outlook as Saverglass earnings take a hit
• 5 ASX 200 shares I’d buy as the share market rebounds
• ASX 200 sector leaders to buy amid today’s market rally

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has positions in WiseTech Global. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended WiseTech Global. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended WiseTech Global. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Orora. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

After a lengthy record setting run, the gold price hit a wall in March.

The yellow metal ended February trading for US$5,279 an ounce, according to data from Bloomberg. By the time the smoke cleared on 31 March, that same ounce was trading for US$4,668, down 11.2%.

As you’d expect, this put some serious pressure on ASX gold stocks, which had counted among the top performers on the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) over the year to March.

Indeed, while the ASX 200 slumped 7.8% in March, the S&P/ASX All Ordinaries Gold Index (ASX: XGD) declined a painful 23.9%.

As for some of the leading ASX 200 gold stocks, Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) shares fell 32.8% in March; Newmont Corp (ASX: NEM) shares dropped 14.5%; and Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) dropped 23.9%.

Here’s what put the gold price, and ASX gold stocks, under selling pressure.

Easy liquidity outweighs haven status

Noting that March was the weakest month for the gold price since June 2013, the World Gold Council (WGC) said, “Gold lost value in all major currencies, but remains up on the year.”

The big sell-off followed the outbreak of the Iran war at the end of February.

While that kind of geopolitical turmoil should favour haven assets like gold, the yellow metal also is often among the first assets investors will sell when they need access to funds amid broader stock market declines.

“The 12% fall in price over the month is attributed to deleveraging and liquidity dynamics that favoured sellers, not fundamentals, which remain supportive,” the WGC noted.

According to the WGC:

Gold’s sell‑off during the first three weeks of March was sharp, counter‑intuitive, but not unprecedented. It occurred against a backdrop normally supportive for gold: elevated geopolitical tensions and renewed inflation concerns. The episode is a reminder that gold is not a contractual hedge.

The gold price, and ASX gold stocks like Northern Star and Newmont, also faced headwinds in March with the Iran war sending energy prices soaring the world over. This could fuel inflation and potentially increase interest rates. Gold, which pays no yield itself, tends to perform better in a low or falling rate environment.

What now for the gold price?

Looking ahead, the WGC said that some early signs of stabilisation are emerging.

Among the positive signs for a rebound in the gold price, the WGC noted that early April exchange traded fund (ETF) flows into gold have been positive across regions.

As for the Iran war’s impact on interest rates in critical economies like the US, the WGC said:

Policy tightening is likely to be rhetorical (in the US) and expectations of hikes could get unwound quickly. Any energy driven CPI impulse is likely to result in demand destruction, limiting pass through to core inflation and reinforcing the case for an eventual dovish pivot.

But there are certainly risks that the gold price could face further pressure.

According to the WGC:

Should the conflict keep oil prices well in excess of US$100/bbl for an extended period – given that the somewhat muted response was reportedly due to buffers that no longer exist – this could risk further cross‑asset deleveraging, yield blow-outs, or gold mobilisation by the official sector.

Stay tuned!

The post March was the worst month for the gold price since June 2013. Now what? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Thursday
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Wednesday
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Tuesday
• Why Greatland Resources, Newmont, Northern Star, and Qantas shares are rising today
• Up 33% in 2 weeks, Northern Star share price surging again today on $500 million news

Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Guzman Y Gomez (ASX: GYG) shares have been sizzling this week.

Shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) Mexican fast food restaurant chain closed last Thursday, ahead of the Easter holiday break, trading for $15.20.

Despite slipping 0.7% in intraday trade to $20.10 a share today, that sees the stock up a whopping 32.2% in less than three trading days.

While this will undoubtedly come as welcome news to recent investors, most longer-term shareholders will still be underwater.

Guzman Y Gomez shares were first available to select investor during the initial public offering (IPO) on 20 June 2024 for $22.00 each. The fast food stock ended that first day of trade at $30.00 a share, eventually peaking at $43.35 a share at market close on 6 December 2024.

What sent Guzman Y Gomez shares flying this week?

Investors reacted very positively to the company’s third quarter (Q3 FY 2026) sales update, released on Tuesday.

Guzman Y Gomez shares closed up a blistering 18.6% on the day after the company reported a 19.5% year on year increase in sales to $345.9 million.

The Mexican fast food chain opened five new Australian restaurants during quarter. And its Australian segment delivered the bulk of its sales, at $320.4 million.

The Australian business showed significantly stronger growth than its US market. Comparable sales growth in Australia came in at 6.6% compared to 2.2% in the US, where the company opened only two new stores during the quarter.

In the US, the company pointed to headwinds from the cessation of DoorDash deliveries in early March.

Looking ahead, management confirmed that the company on track to open 32 new restaurants in Australia in FY 2026.

Which brings us back to our headline question…

Should you buy the ASX 200 fast food stock today?

Morgans Financial’s Mitch Belichovski ran his slide rule over the company on 2 April, prior to GYG’s quarterly update release (courtesy of The Bull).

“Guzman Y Gomez owns, operates and franchises Mexican inspired quick service restaurants in Australia, Singapore, Japan and the United States,” he noted.

“The company’s premium valuation is predicated on expectations it will deliver material earnings per share growth over many years,” he added.

Explaining his sell recommendation on Guzman Y Gomez shares, Belichovski said:

In our view, the company is exposed to execution risk as it aggressively continues to open new restaurants in Australia. Australian earnings were up strongly in the first half of 2026. However, segment underlying EBITDA in the United States posted a loss of $8.3 million.

Belichovski concluded, “Management will need to narrow its losses in the US and increase the pace of US expansion to ultimately deliver value for shareholders.”

The post Up 32% this week, are Guzman Y Gomez shares a good buy today? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• 2 ASX 200 shares I rate as top buys for growth
• Top brokers name 3 ASX shares to buy today
• GYG shares skyrocket 33% this week: Is this the recovery we’ve been waiting for?
• Morgans names two ASX 200 shares to buy and one to sell this week
• Why Bank of Queensland, Guzman Y Gomez, NextDC, and Telix shares are racing higher today

Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

ASX small-cap shares are underperforming on Thursday with the S&P/ASX Small Ordinaries Index (ASX: XSO) down 1% while the S&P/ASX All Ords Index (ASX: XAO) is just 0.15% lower.

At the start of 2026, fundies had high hopes for global small-caps given many Western nations, including the US, appeared poised to cut interest rates.

The war in Iran has changed that outlook.

A two-week ceasefire is now in place, however, the shock to energy supplies will take months to filter throughout Western economies.

Given oil’s flow-through effect to so many parts of the economy, including grocery prices, the impact may be enough to push up inflation.

Central banks are likely to respond by either hiking rates, or delaying previously anticipated rate cuts.

In Australia, inflation was resurgent even before the war began.

We’ve had two rate hikes already this year, and the market is pricing in a 60% chance of another one next month.

Higher interest rates are typically a headwind for small-caps, which are typically young companies using debt to fund their growth.

Here are 3 ASX small-cap shares that fund manager, Blackwattle, is backing for solid growth.

Blackwattle holds all three of these ASX shares in its Small Cap Quality Fund.

Lindian Resources Ltd (ASX: LIN)

The Lindian Resources share price is 88 cents, up 1.4% today.

This ASX rare earths mining share rose 26% over the past month, and is 782% higher over the past year.

Portfolio managers Robert Hawkesford and Daniel Broeren said:

Lindian Resources (+24.7%) is a rare earths miner in the final stages of bringing online its lead project, Kangankunde.

This is a unique asset given its low mining cost and extremely low capex requirements versus other rare earth projects globally.

For these reasons the company should be able to transition to production quickly, with first ore due later this year.

In March, Lindian announced a JV with a rare earths processor, which will allow it to produce a higher-grade concentrate.

This has materially increased the value of the company as it captures more of the value chain and taps into Western markets looking to pivot away from China supply.

Ridley Corporation Ltd (ASX: RIC)

The Ridley Corporation share price is steady at $2.74 on Thursday.

This small-cap ASX agribusiness share rose 2% over the past month, and is 14% higher over 12 months.

Blackwattle also holds this ASX share in its Small Cap Quality Fund.

Hawkesford and Broeren comment:

While the business may appear on the boring side, the excitement for us comes from the operational improvements executed by the management team under the current CEO, Quinton Hildebrand.

Hildebrand has guided the share price from 75c in 2020 to $2.90 by taking a strict focus on ROIC discipline.

Looking forward we are particularly excited about what can be delivered from the newly acquired fertiliser business, Incitec Pivot.

Superloop Ltd (ASX: SLC)

Superloop shares are $3.23, up 0.8% today.

This small-cap ASX telecommunications share rose 13% over the past month, and is 60% higher over 12 months.

Hawkesford and Broeren said:

Shares rose strongly in February following a well-received 1H26 result that demonstrated clear operating leverage and broad-based growth across all key metrics and segments.

Superloop continues to take market share from incumbent telecommunications providers, supported by its competitively priced high-speed broadband offerings and vertically integrated network.

Management commentary also reinforced confidence in the company’s growth trajectory, with continued subscriber additions and
improving scale across the platform expected to drive meaningful earnings expansion over the coming years.

The post 3 ASX small-cap shares this fund manager expects to outperform appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Why is this ASX rare earths share sinking 13% today?
• Why Dateline, Karoon Energy, Lindian, and PEXA shares are falling today
• Forget Telstra shares! Buy this fast-rising ASX 200 telco stock instead
• 20 ASX shares with ex-dividend dates next week

Motley Fool contributor Bronwyn Allen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Zip Co Ltd (ASX: ZIP) shares are falling on Thursday, giving back a big chunk of the gains from yesterday’s huge rally.

In afternoon trade, the Zip share price is down 9.40% to $1.808.

That leaves the ASX fintech stock down roughly 45% in 2026, despite yesterday’s massive 19.46% jump to $1.995.

The strong gain on Wednesday came after Iran agreed to a temporary ceasefire with the US and Israel, which helped lift confidence across the broader share market.

Growth shares such as Zip were among the biggest winners from that improved mood.

But by today, that optimism has already faded.

Why Zip shares are falling today

The recent weakness comes as fresh Middle East developments again weigh on risk appetite across the share market.

Reports of Israeli attacks in Lebanon have raised doubts over how long the temporary ceasefire can last, reversing much of the confidence that drove yesterday’s rebound.

As a higher-growth fintech stock, Zip often sees larger swings when investors move away from riskier parts of the market and into more defensive areas.

The S&P/ASX 200 Information Technology Index (ASX: XIJ) has also come under pressure again today, down 6.93%, which has added to weakness across local tech shares.

That backdrop helps explain why Zip has gone from a near 20% rally yesterday to a fall of close to 10% today. And this is even without any company-specific update driving the move.

Big swings are nothing new for Zip

This kind of volatility has become a regular feature for Zip shares.

The stock has been moving wildly for months as investors respond to changing views on interest rates, consumer spending, and now the Middle East war.

Even before this week’s geopolitical developments, Zip had already seen some large moves.

Its half-year result in February triggered a big share price drop, despite the company reporting strong earnings growth, and continued momentum in the US business.

Since then, the stock has regularly bounced hard on good news, only to pull back again when market nerves return.

This week’s price action is another example of just how quickly the market’s view on Zip can change.

Foolish takeaway

Zip is clearly capable of delivering huge short-term moves, but that level of volatility would make it too unpredictable for my own portfolio.

While the growth story still has appeal, I would rather focus on more stable businesses that are also delivering solid earnings growth without the same headline-driven swings.

For me, there are simply better risk-reward opportunities elsewhere on the ASX.

The post Zip shares plunge again after yesterday’s 19% surge. Here’s what changed appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Are Zip Co shares a buy right now?
• Are Zip shares still a buy after soaring 20%
• 2 ASX shares highly recommended to buy: Experts
• Down 50% in 2026, Zip shares are ‘one of the most compelling value opportunities on the ASX’
• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today

Motley Fool contributor Aaron Teboneras has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.