Tag: Stock pick

National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB) shares have tumbled 1.3% in Tuesday’s trade. At the time of writing, the shares are changing hands at $44.18 a piece.

The slump means the banking giant’s share price has dropped nearly 9% over the past month as global volatility, higher interest rates, and a slowdown in lending take their toll on the banking sector.  

However, year to date, NAB shares are still trading 4% higher, and they’re a huge 30% above where they were this time last year.

For context, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is 3.8% lower year to date and 5.8% higher over the year.

NAB shares might have come off the boil this morning, along with many other ASX 200 shares, but there are still three compelling reasons why the bank stock is still a buy.

1. NAB is a classic defensive stock

The banking giant is a fantastic defensive stock that can remain stable in times of economic crisis. Unlike discretionary spending, which can be curbed, there will always be a need for banking services regardless of where we are in the economic cycle.

2. The company is stable

Because NAB is a defensive stock, the bank is able to benefit from a stable and recurring income. Its latest financial results show how its operational performance and earnings are able to stay strong and consistent, even when markets are weaker. The banking giant revealed a 15% hike in its cash earnings for the first quarter of FY26 and a 6% increase in revenue. 

While it is still sensitive to economic conditions such as further interest rate increases, increased sharemarket volatility, or a potential recession, its income and scale make it a good, stable option over the long term.

3. NAB pays reliable dividends to investors

NAB shares typically trade at a lower price-earnings (P/E) ratio than other sectors, which means investors are able to earn a higher dividend yield.

The bank paid an annual dividend of $1.70 per share in FY25, which was 1 cent per share higher than FY24. The annual dividend is forecast to also be $1.70 per share in FY26, fully franked, and then to climb to $1.705 per share in FY27 and $1.72 per share in FY28. It’s not a huge increase, but it’s a steady one.

The post 3 reasons to buy NAB shares today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Here’s the latest earnings forecast out to 2030 for NAB shares
• Pulse check: How are the top 10 ASX 200 shares performing amid a new war?
• How higher interest rates could send CBA shares plunging 42%
• $5,000 invested in NAB shares 12 months ago is already worth…
• Should I invest $2,000 in the VAS ETF?

Motley Fool contributor Samantha Menzies has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

ASX energy share Elixir Energy Ltd (ASX: EXR) is charging higher today.

Again.

Elixir shares closed trading yesterday for 8.5 cents. In early afternoon trade on Tuesday, shares are changing hands for 8.7 cents apiece, up 2.4%.

For some context, the S&P/ASX Small Ordinaries Index (ASX: XSO) is up 0.1% at this same time.

Today’s outperformance is par for the course for this junior ASX energy share.

Indeed, one year ago, on 24 March 2024, you could have picked up shares at an intraday low of 2.7 cents each.

Meaning you’d be sitting on eye-popping gains of 222.2% today. Or enough to turn an $8,000 investment into $25,778.

In one year.

And according to the investment team at Euroz Hartleys, Elixir Energy shares are well-positioned to more than double in value again.

Here’s why.

ASX energy share drills into excellent prospect

Last Monday, 16 March, Elixir reported the final drilling results from its Lorelle-3H appraisal well, located in Queensland’s Taroom Trough.

The ASX energy share closed up 7.1% on the day, with Elixir Energy CEO Stuart Nicholls noting, “The Lorelle-3 appraisal campaign has delivered an exceptional result for the company.”

And Euroz Hartleys analyst Declan Bonnick agrees.

According to Bonnick:

EXR announced excellent results from the Lorelle-3 horizontal well (ATP 2056: 50% EXR, 50% STO) in the Taroom Trough, onshore Queensland. The well achieved >1km targeted length and intersected average porosity of 11.2%, with peaks up to 18%, materially exceeding our expectations and approaching conventional reservoir quality. The well has now been cased and suspended ahead of a planned frac/flow test program in Q2CY26.

And Elixir could be sitting on a gusher, judging by the outcome achieved to date by Shell PLC (NYSE: SHEL) on a nearby tenement.

Bonnick noted:

The Lorelle-3 results represent a key de-risking milestone in demonstrating the commerciality of EXR’s Taroom Trough acreage. The upcoming 30-day multi-stage frac and flow test (targeting >5 MMscf/d) through Q2CY26 will be a critical step in confirming commercial deliverability.

The program mirrors the approach taken by neighbouring Supermajor Shell, which is progressing development directly on trend and is understood to have achieved commercial flow rates from the same reservoir.

What’s the price target for Elixir shares?

Connecting the dots, Euroz Hartleys maintained its speculative buy rating for the junior ASX energy share.

Following last week’s drill results, the broker increased its price target for Elixir Energy to 19 cents a share. That represents further upside potential of more than 118% from current levels.

The post Up 222% in a year, why this ASX energy share is forecast to more than double your money again appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• How is this ASX energy share leaping 17% in Monday’s sinking market?

Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Dicker Data Ltd (ASX: DDR) shares are trading in the green on Tuesday afternoon. At the time of writing, the ASX dividend stock is up 1.61% to $8.54 a piece.

It’s a welcome reprieve for investors after the Australian-owned technology company’s share price crashed 18% in late February to early March. There has been some recovery since the sharp sell-off, but the shares are still down 16% year to date.

What caused the Dicker Data share price crash?

There wasn’t one sole factor which caused the ASX dividend stock to crash, but a combination of headwinds which all hit at the same time. 

Geopolitical uncertainty in the face of the escalating war in the Middle East caused a sector-wide sell-off earlier this month. At the same time, Australia is faced with the prospect of multiple cash rate increases as the Reserve Bank tries to get on top of soaring inflation.

The combination saw investors sell up their riskier stocks in sectors like technology, and shifted into safe-haven assets instead. 

Why is Dicker Data a good ASX dividend stock?

Despite the sharp investor sell-off over the past month, Dicker Data’s fundamentals are still sound. In late February, the company announced a 12.5% increase in its statutory revenue for FY25 and a 14.9% increase in gross revenue. EBITDA and NPAT also increased by 5.9% and 8.8%, respectively.

The strong results meant the tech business could declare a final dividend of 11.5 cents per share, bringing fully franked dividends for FY25 to 44 cents. Management also confirmed a revised payout range of 80% to 100% of NPAT.

Not only does Dicker Data distribute a significant portion of its earnings to investors, but it also does so regularly. Unlike many other ASX dividend stocks, the company has paid a quarterly, fully franked dividend to its investors since 2016. That provides some strong cash generation.

Right now is a buying opportunity for investors

TradingView data shows that investors are mostly bullish on Dicker Data’s outlook. Five out of eight analysts have a buy or strong buy rating on the ASX dividend stock, and another three have a hold rating.

Regardless, the consensus is for a strong upside over the next 12 months. The maximum target price of $12.50 implies a 47% upside at the time of writing. Even the minimum $10.30 target price implies analysts think the stock will soar 21%.

It looks like the ASX dividend stock’s latest share price weakness has created a compelling buying opportunity for long-term investors seeking reliable income and growth.

The post 1 super cheap ASX dividend stock down 16% to buy and hold for decades appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• 3 of the best ASX income stocks to buy now
• 1 incredibly cheap ASX dividend growth stock to buy now and hold for decades
• 5 ASX dividend shares to buy for income in 2026
• Dicker Data shares fall to a 7-month low. Is this a bargain buy?

Motley Fool contributor Samantha Menzies has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Dicker Data. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Knowing which ASX 200 shares to avoid can be just as important as knowing ones you should buy.

With that in mind, let’s take a look at three popular shares that experts are tipping as sells, courtesy of The Bull.

Here’s what they are saying:

Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA)

Medallion Financial Group believes CBA shares are expensive and has labelled them as sell.

While the financial group acknowledges the quality of this big four bank, it is concerned that its earnings momentum is slowing given softening credit growth and net interest margin stabilisation. It explains:

CBA remains the highest quality franchise among Australia’s major banks, but the valuation now looks stretched. The stock trades on a price-to-earnings multiple well above its peers despite similar earnings growth prospects. The recent annual dividend yield around 3 per cent is modest compared with other income opportunities.

With credit growth slowing and net interest margins stabilising, we believe earnings momentum is unlikely to justify such a premium valuation. After a strong share price run, investors may want to consider taking profits and reallocating capital to more attractively valued opportunities.

DroneShield Ltd (ASX: DRO)

The team at Alto Capital believes that this counter-drone technology company’s shares are fully valued and thinks investors should be taking profit. As a result, it has labelled DroneShield shares as a sell.

Alto Capital highlights that the company has a positive outlook but that its valuation reflects significant future growth expectations. It said:

DroneShield operates in the counter-drone defence technology sector, providing detection and mitigation systems used to protect military, government and critical infrastructure assets. The company has benefited from strong investor interest in defence and security technologies, with the share price rallying sharply over the past year in response to geopolitical tensions and intensifying defence spending narratives.

While the long term outlook for counter-drone solutions remains compelling, DroneShield’s valuation increasingly reflects significant future growth expectations. Revenue remains contract-driven and can be uneven, with earnings visibility still developing as the company scales up globally. Following recent share price strength and a re-rating, the current risk-reward balance favours taking profits at present levels.

Qantas Airways Ltd (ASX: QAN)

Finally, DP Wealth Advisory has named airline operator Qantas as a sell.

This is due to concerns over the impact that higher oil prices could have on profitability. And with more attractive opportunities out there, the advisory firm thinks investors should avoid Qantas shares for the time being. It said:

Qantas is a well managed domestic and international airline, holding a 70 per cent market share in Australia. The shares were trading at $10.65 on February 25, a day prior to the company posting its first half year result in fiscal year 2026. The stock was trading at $8.46 on March 19. Qantas announced on March 13, 2026 that it had settled a class action for $105 million regarding flight credits during COVID-19.

The company has hedged jet fuel supply prices in the shorter term, but I’m concerned about the impact of possibly higher crude oil prices over the longer term. I’m also mindful of the expense involved in Qantas upgrading its airline fleet after years of under investment by previous management as well as COVID-19. Qantas has a high fixed cost base. In my view, it’s a cyclical stock due to its reliance on consumer and business sentiment. Other stocks appeal more at this point.

The post 3 massively popular ASX 200 shares experts say to sell (inc. CBA) appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• 5 most traded ASX 200 shares since the war began
• Why are these 2 defence stocks tumbling today?
• Why BHP, EchoIQ, Life360, and Qantas shares are racing higher today
• Why DroneShield, Guzman Y Gomez, IAG, and Myer shares are falling today
• Why is the Woodside share price getting smashed on Tuesday?

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended DroneShield and is short shares of DroneShield. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The New Hope Corporation Ltd (ASX: NHC) share price has been on a strong run in recent weeks, supported by a rebound in coal prices.

At the time of writing, New Hope shares are trading at $5.79, up 1.94% for the day.

The stock has gained around 9.25% over the past week and approximately 22.67% over the past month. This makes New Hope shares among the top-performing ASX 200 stocks across the energy sector.

What a $7,500 investment looks like today

Around five weeks ago, New Hope shares were trading at $4.69.

A $7,500 investment at that price would have bought approximately 1,599 shares.

At today’s price of $5.79, those shares would now be worth roughly $9,250.

That represents a gain of about $1,750, or approximately 23% over the five-week period.

The move highlights how quickly returns can build when commodity prices shift in favour of producers.

Coal prices driving the move

The key driver behind the rally has been the strength in thermal coal prices.

According to recent data, coal is now trading around US$140 per tonne, marking a 16-month high. This follows a steady rise in recent months, supported by tighter supply conditions and strong demand from power generation markets.

This has lifted sentiment across the sector and contributed to the recent re-rating in coal-exposed stocks.

Operational snapshot

New Hope is a diversified coal producer with operations across New South Wales and Queensland, including the Bengalla and New Acland mines.

The company’s latest guidance shows:

• ROM coal production of 15.7 to 17.7 million tonnes
• Saleable coal production of 10.2 to 11.5 million tonnes
• Coal sales also in the range of 10.2 to 11.5 million tonnes

These figures remain unchanged from prior guidance, suggesting stable operating conditions despite volatility in commodity markets.

Momentum and technical picture

Looking at the chart, New Hope shares have been trending higher since late January, moving from around $4 to current levels near $5.80.

The stock is now trading near the upper bollinger band, which typically reflects strong upward momentum. The relative strength index (RSI) is also sitting around 70, indicating the stock is approaching overbought territory.

Foolish Takeaway

New Hope’s recent gains reflect higher coal prices, rather than any new updates from the company.

In just five weeks, a $7,500 investment has risen to around $9,250, driven by coal hitting multi-month highs.

These gains highlight how quickly returns can build when pricing conditions improve, with recent strength in coal prices driving the share price higher.

The post $7,500 invested in New Hope shares 5 weeks ago is now worth… appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Oil slides below US$100 as tensions shift, ASX energy stocks pull back
• ASX 200 energy shares lead the market for a third week
• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today
• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today
• 5 ASX 200 energy shares smash multi-year highs after oil price spike

Motley Fool contributor Aaron Teboneras has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) copper stock Capstone Copper Corp (ASX: CSC) is storming higher today. 

Capstone Copper shares closed yesterday trading for $9.60. At the time of writing, shares are swapping hands for $10.25 apiece, up 6.8%.

For some context, the ASX 200 is up 0.6% at this same time.

Capstone Copper shares look to be catching some tailwinds today, with the copper price up 2% overnight to US$12,167 per tonne.

Despite coming under pressure following the outbreak of the Iran war on 28 February, the copper price is up more than 22% since this time last year amid strong global demand for the conductive metal and limited new supply growth.

The Capstone Copper share price has fallen more than 30% since the outset of hostilities in the Middle East, with the ASX 200 copper stock now up 7% over 12 months. This sees the company currently commanding a market cap of around $7.9 billion.

Which brings us back to our headline question.

Should you buy this ASX 200 copper stock today?

Copper’s non-corrosive properties see it widely used in areas such as plumbing. While the red metal’s conductive nature has seen strong demand growth in recent years amid the world’s push towards electrification. 

Commenting on global trends that could support Capstone Copper shares over the long run, Medallion Financial Group’s Philippe Bui said (courtesy of The Bull):

The company provides exposure to one of the strongest long term commodity themes – increasing copper demand driven by electrification, energy transition and global infrastructure investment.

And Bui noted that the ASX 200 copper stock has strong growth potential. He said:

The company produces about 200,000 tonnes of copper equivalent annually, and has a pipeline of expansion projects capable of materially increasing production over time. With copper supplies expected to tighten structurally in coming years, Capstone is well positioned to benefit from higher long-term prices.

Connecting the dots, Bui issued a hold recommendation on Capstone Copper shares.

He concluded:

While capital expenditure remains elevated during the expansion phase, the growth outlook is compelling. Investors already positioned in the stock should continue to hold exposure to what we regard as an appealing long term copper growth story.

What’s the latest from Capstone Copper shares?

The ASX 200 copper stock reported its fourth quarter and full calendar year 2025 results on 3 March.

Highlights for the full year included a 47.5% increase in revenue from 2024 to $2.36 billion.

And earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) of $953 million were up 92% year on year. 

“2025 was an inflection point for Capstone, representing tangible delivery on peer leading growth with our copper production up 22%,” Capstone CEO Cashel Meagher said on the day.

The post Should you buy this $8 billion ASX 200 copper stock amid surging global demand? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Buy, hold, sell: Copper, gold, and lithium ASX stocks
• Morgans names 3 ASX mining stocks to buy
• Top brokers name 3 ASX shares to buy today
• Three stocks to buy for double-digit returns, according to Macquarie
• Why Capstone Copper, Life360, Neuren, and St George Mining shares are falling today

Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

MA Financial Group Ltd (ASX: MAF) was one of the highfliers among financial shares last calendar year, but the shares have been staging a retreat over the past three months.

The analyst team at Jarden believes this presents an opportunity to get in on the action and has a bullish share price target on the company, which we’ll get to later.

Firstly, what does MA Financial Group do?

Diversified financial offering

MA Financial Group has three key pillars of the business: alternative asset management, lending and technology, and corporate advisory and equities.

Jarden is predicting strong earnings growth, which they believe has been sold down partly in response to bad news in the US private credit space.

As they said in a research note to clients:

Following 31% earnings per share growth in FY25, we forecast 38%/22% growth in FY26/27, driven by continued double-digit assets under management growth in asset management focussed in real estate and private credit, strong operating leverage in MA Money business (FY26E loan book growth forecast 62%), and a moderating drag from the US business.

Jarden said there were few signs of stress locally around private credit, with the issues in the US driven in large part by loans to unlisted software companies, which are being caught up in the AI revolution.

Strong historical performance

Jarden said MA Financial Group had a strong track record of lending to corporates, with a 0% loss history and no loans in arrears.

They said they were overweight on the shares for several reasons.

Fundamentally, we like the story. There are multiple earnings drivers, and management have executed well. MA Money is easily surpassing MAF’s expectations with book growth in excess of 100%. From a rating standpoint, we initiate at Overweight (as opposed to Buy) due to risks including: 1) we are about 9% below FY26 NPAT consensus, driven primarily by a more conservative Transaction Revenue forecast of $34m. Consensus looks achievable but in our view most things need to go right including comping strong non-recurring revenue in asset management; 2) the macro environment (including private credit concerns) and rising interest rates present a degree of near-term uncertainty; and 3) competition more broadly across commercial real estate credit, asset backed securities markets and mortgages.

Jarden says MA Financial Group shares are trading at their lowest price-to-earnings ratio in almost 2 years, and it has a price target of $9.45, compared with $7.15 at the time of writing, which would represent 32.2% upside if achieved.

MA Financial Group was valued at $1.37 billion at the close of trade on Monday.

The post Which ASX financial stock could deliver 30% upside? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• $7,500 invested in New Hope shares 5 weeks ago is now worth…
• Should you buy this $8 billion ASX 200 copper stock amid surging global demand?
• Why ASX 200 gold stocks like Northern Star and Evolution Mining are storming higher today
• Oil slides below US$100 as tensions shift, ASX energy stocks pull back
• Down another 5% today: Is the party finally over for the EOS share price?

Motley Fool contributor Cameron England has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Ma Financial Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) gold stocks, including Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) and Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) are charging higher today.

In early afternoon trade on Tuesday, the ASX 200 is up 0.4%, having given back earlier intraday gains of 1.6%.

The gold miners’ strong rally is coming off the boil as well, though ASX gold shares are still outpacing the benchmark. At the time of writing, the S&P/ASX All Ordinaries Gold Index (ASX: XGD) is up 2.6% after having been up 5.3% in morning trade.

Here’s how these ASX 200 gold stocks are performing at this same time:

• Northern Star shares are up 2.0% at $17.55
• Newmont Corp (ASX: NEM) shares are up 4.8% at $138.10
• Evolution Mining shares are up 3.1% at $11.86
• Ramelius Resources Ltd (ASX: RMS) shares are up 3.3% at $3.42
• Bellevue Gold Ltd (ASX: BGL) shares are up 0.4% at $1.26
• Genesis Minerals Ltd (ASX: GMD) shares are up 6.3% at $5.69
• Perseus Mining Ltd (ASX: PRU) shares are up 2.4% at $4.67
• Vault Minerals Ltd (ASX: VAU) shares are up 2.1% at $3.69
• Westgold Resources Ltd (ASX: WGX) shares are up 3.1% at $5.18
• Ora Banda Mining Ltd (ASX: OBM) shares are down 1.0% at $1.04

Boom!

With the exception of Ora Banda, here’s why the Aussie gold miners are outperforming today.

ASX 200 gold stocks rally on Trump’s Iran reprieve

After getting hammered throughout most of March following the outbreak of the Iran war on 28 February, ASX 200 gold stocks like Evolution Mining and Northern Star are rallying today amid hopes that the conflict could end sooner than later.

This comes after United States President Donald Trump extended his 48-hour deadline to begin bombing Iranian power plants if Iran doesn’t fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Trump offered a five-day reprieve, saying the US is in talks with Iran. An assertion that Iranian authorities have denied.

As you’ll have noticed at the petrol station, the oil price has rocketed since the start of the war, with Iran all but closing the vital shipping route in retaliation.

Indeed, on Friday, Brent crude oil was trading north of US$112 per barrel, according to data from Bloomberg.

But the oil price plunged almost 11% overnight, briefly dipping below US$100 per barrel, and is currently trading at US$102.76 per barrel following Trump’s comments.

And should the US succeed in reopening the Strait of Hormuz, which carries around 20% of the world’s oil shipments, Trump predicted that the oil price would “drop like a rock”.

Why is that important for ASX 200 gold stocks like Northern Star, Newmont, and Evolution Mining?

Mostly because soaring energy costs will rekindle global inflation and, in turn, lead to higher interest rates. And gold, which pays no yield itself, historically struggles in high or rising interest rate environments.

Stay tuned!

The post Why ASX 200 gold stocks like Northern Star and Evolution Mining are storming higher today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Which top ASX gold stock just took the biggest hit?
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Tuesday
• Down 40% in a month. Does the Northern Star share price have further to fall?
• Why Genesis Energy, Northern Star, PLS, and WiseTech shares are falling today
• Should you buy these ASX gold stocks after last week’s crash?

Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Oil prices dropped below key levels, with both major benchmarks declining after a shift in the latest geopolitical developments.

According to Trading Economics, WTI crude is trading around US$89.70 per barrel, down about 8.7% on the session. Brent crude is near US$100.60 per barrel, after falling roughly 10.3%.

This follows a pullback in prices after recent gains linked to supply disruptions across the Middle East.

Shift in expectations weighs on prices

Recent reports indicate that the United States has paused planned strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure for five days following high-level discussions.

Markets seem to have interpreted this as a possible step toward easing tensions.

Earlier, oil prices surged as tensions between the US and Iran raised fears about supply routes, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz. This chokepoint handles roughly 20% of global oil flows.

With the immediate risk of disruption appearing lower, traders appear to have adjusted their expectations, leading to a decline in prices.

Volatility remains elevated

Despite the recent pullback, oil remains higher on a longer-term basis.

Brent crude is up around 38% since the start of the US-Israel conflict involving Iran. Prices briefly moved above US$110 per barrel, up from around US$70 before the conflict.

Recent trading also highlights how quickly prices are moving. Brent has recorded large swings within a single session as markets reacted to escalating updates.

These moves have been driven by changing expectations around supply risk.

ASX energy stocks move lower

The drop in oil prices weighed on local energy stocks in early trading today.

Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS) shares were down about 3.5% in early trading to $33.56. The stock remains roughly 20% higher over the past month.

Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) shares also declined, falling around 3% to $7.82. The company’s shares are still up about 14% over the same period.

Ampol Ltd (ASX: ALD) shares were down about 0.8% to $33.19. In contrast, Viva Energy Group Ltd (ASX: VEA) shares rose approximately 2.3% to $2.43.

Coal stocks also moved lower, with Whitehaven Coal Ltd (ASX: WHC) down about 2% and New Hope Corporation Ltd (ASX: NHC) slipping around 1%.

Foolish takeaway

Oil prices have fallen as immediate supply concerns have eased, though they remain above pre-conflict levels.

While there have been no confirmed disruptions to production or shipping, recent price movements have been driven by changes in expectations.

Moves across ASX energy stocks seem to have followed these changes in oil prices, rather than any new specific updates from the companies themselves.

The post Oil slides below US$100 as tensions shift, ASX energy stocks pull back appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• $7,500 invested in New Hope shares 5 weeks ago is now worth…
• Why is the Woodside share price getting smashed on Tuesday?
• Can these red hot ASX energy shares keep charging higher?
• What would a gas tax mean for ASX energy stocks?
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Tuesday

Motley Fool contributor Aaron Teboneras has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The Electro Optic Systems Holdings Ltd (ASX: EOS) share price has dropped another 4.6% lower in Tuesday morning trade. At the time of writing, the shares are trading at $8.53 each.

The shares are 509% higher than just 12 months ago. But since peaking at an all-time high of $11.74 in mid-March, the EOS share price has slumped by over 27%. And it’s down 14% for the year to date.

What happened to the EOS share price this month?

The Aussie defence company, which develops and produces advanced electro-optic technologies, benefited from surging demand for exposure to the defence sector in late 2025 and early 2026. 

Ongoing conflict in the Middle East and rising geopolitical tensions have led to an uptick in government defence spending. This includes the development of missiles or submarines, as well as technologies such as drones, AI, and electronic warfare.

As a result of strong demand for defence technology, EOS has won several major contracts over the past few months, helping build investor confidence and sending the share price soaring to an all-time high earlier this month.

But as quickly as the share price spiked, it has slumped back down amid strong headwinds. 

Two weeks ago, investors were spooked by news that an EOS announcement on 15 December 2025 regarding a conditional US$80 million high-energy laser contract failed to adequately disclose market-sensitive information.

Less than a week later, the company announced significant insider selling after the exercise of options. EOS announced that its CEO, CFO, and other senior executives had exercised millions of share options and are now planning to sell a significant portion of those shares. In total, management exercised more than 3.4 million options under the company’s long-term incentive plan, converting them into ordinary shares, and they also flagged their intention to sell. 

The news caught investors off-guard, and the volume of shares being disposed of raised questions. 

Investor selling ramped up quickly and sent the share price crashing.

Is this the end of the road for the EOS share price rally?

Analysts don’t seem to think so.

Despite the latest share price decline, analysts are still bullish that there is still some more upside ahead for the EOS share price. All four analysts on TradingView data have a strong buy consensus. 

The maximum target price is $16, which implies a potential 82% upside at the time of writing. Even the minimum $9.40 target price represents a potential upside of 12% at the time of writing.

The post Down another 5% today: Is the party finally over for the EOS share price? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Samantha Menzies has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Electro Optic Systems. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.