Tag: Stock pick

With only two hours of trade left before Friday’s closing bell, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is down 2.4% for the week despite the best lifting efforts of these three ASX 200 stocks.

Which outperforming companies am I talking about?

Read on!

ASX 200 stocks leaping higher despite this week’s headwinds

Forget the potential of a looming AI stock market bubble. Or the fact that interest rates in Australia and the United States may not get any lower in the near or even medium term.

That’s certainly the attitude of investors who’ve been piling into global pathology provider Sonic Healthcare Ltd (ASX: SHL) over the week.

The ASX 200 stock closed last Friday trading for $21.32. At the time of writing, shares are changing hands for $23.30 apiece. That sees the Sonic Healthcare share price up 9.3% for the week.

Sonic Healthcare shares closed up 6.8% on Thursday amid the company’s annual general meeting (AGM).

Investors reacted positively after management reaffirmed the company’s FY 2026 earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) guidance to be in the range of $1.87 billion to $1.95 billion (on a constant currency basis).

At the higher end, that would represent 12.7% year-on-year earnings growth from the $1.73 billion EBITDA reported for FY 2025.

Sonic Healthcare also highlighted that year to date in FY 2026, statutory revenue is up 17% from the same period the prior year.

Moving on to the second ASX 200 stock marching higher despite the wider market malaise this week, we have property investment and funds manager Charter Hall Group (ASX: CHC).

Charter Hall shares closed last week trading for $21.86. At the time of writing, shares are changing hands for $24.11 each. That sees the Charter Hall share price up 10.3% over the week.

Charter Hall also held its AGM on Thursday, with shares closing up 6.7% on the day.

Investors bid up the stock after the company upgraded guidance for full-year FY 2026 earnings per security (OEPS) to 95 cents. That’s 5.6% above prior guidance of 90 cents per share.

Management credited the stronger earnings outlook to strong investment activity as well as increased revenue across core businesses.

Which brings us to…

Leading the pack this week

The top performing ASX 200 stock on my list for the week is asset management company GQG Partners Inc (ASX: GQG).

GQG Partners shares closed last week trading for $1.45 each. At the time of writing, shares are swapping hands for $1.63 apiece. This sees the GQG Partners share price up 12.4% in this week’s slumping market.

The last price-sensitive news out from the ASX 200 stock was its October funds under management update, released on 12 November.

With GQG Partners shares still down more than 23% in 12 months, it looks like investors may be doing some bargain hunting this week.

The post 3 ASX 200 stocks storming higher in this week’s sinking market appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Up 65% this year: Are Charter Hall Group shares still a buy?
• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today
• Charter Hall upgrades FY26 earnings guidance amid strong property momentum
• Why DroneShield, GQG Partners, Origin Energy, and Worley shares are falling today
• Sonic Healthcare holds AGM after posting strong FY25 growth and reaffirming FY26 outlook

Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Gqg Partners and Sonic Healthcare. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

It has been another busy week for many of Australia’s top brokers. This has led to the release of a number of broker notes.

Three broker buy ratings that you might want to know more about are summarised below. Here’s why brokers think these ASX shares are in the buy zone right now:

A2 Milk Company Ltd (ASX: A2M)

According to a note out of Morgan Stanley, its analysts have retained its overweight rating and $10.00 price target on this infant formula company’s shares. This follows the release of a trading update, which revealed that management now expects low double digit revenue growth in FY 2026 and modest earnings growth.  This has been driven by a better than expected performance across all sides of the business. Overall, the broker was pleased with the update and continues to see value in its shares at current levels. The A2 Milk share price is trading at $9.37 on Friday afternoon.

Collins Foods Ltd (ASX: CKF)

A note out of Citi reveals that its analysts have retained their buy rating and $13.07 price target on this KFC restaurant operator’s shares. The broker highlights that there have been strong updates from poultry producer Inghams Group Ltd (ASX: ING) and casual dining chain operator AmRest recently, which it feels bodes well for Collins Foods ahead of its half year earnings release next month. With respect to Inghams, it reported strong growth in quick service restaurant volumes early in FY 2026. And given that Collins Foods is one of its key customers, this is being seen as a positive indicator. And with average chicken prices up relatively modestly over the prior corresponding period, Citi feels this is manageable for the KFC operator. The Collins Foods share price is fetching $10.99 at the time of writing.

James Hardie Industries PLC (ASX: JHX)

Analysts at Morgans have upgraded this building materials company’s shares to a buy rating with a $35.50 price target. According to the note, Morgans was pleased with James Hardie’s performance during the second quarter. However, it was its outlook commentary that excited the broker the most. It notes that its outlook was incrementally more positive than previously anticipated. Morgans suspects that we could be seeing the bottoming in the cycle as demand stabilises. So, with its shares trading at approximately 17x estimated FY 2026 earnings, the broker thinks its valuation is undemanding. The James Hardie share price is trading at $27.62 this afternoon.

The post Brokers name 3 ASX shares to buy today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Does Macquarie rate a2 Milk shares a buy, hold, or sell?
• Morgans just upgraded these ASX 200 shares
• Why this ASX 100 stock could rocket 46%
• A2 Milk shares slip despite guidance upgrade
• The A2 Milk Company lifts guidance for FY26 earnings

Citigroup is an advertising partner of Motley Fool Money. Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has positions in Collins Foods. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Collins Foods. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The Global X Fang+ ETF (ASX: FANG) is 3.65% lower at $35.90 apiece on Friday.

FANG+ is an unusual ASX exchange-traded fund (ETF) in that it provides highly concentrated exposure to just a few companies.

The FANG ETF invests in just 10 US shares. It tracks the performance of the NYSE FANG+ Index, run by ICE Data Indices.

Six stocks are from the Magnificent Seven: Apple, Amazon, Nvidia, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, and Alphabet.

The other stocks are video streaming provider Netflix, semiconductor and infrastructure software company Broadcom, cybersecurity business CrowdStrike, and enterprise IT services management firm ServiceNow.

There is a 62% allocation to the tech sector, a 28% allocation to communications services, and a 10% allocation to the consumer discretionary sector.

Here is how FANG+ ETF distributes its investment funds across the 10 individual US shares.

FANG+ ETF’s composition

ICE Data Indices launched the NYSE FANG+ Index in 2017.

The aim was to provide “exposure to a select group of highly-traded growth stocks of tech-enabled companies”.

Global X launched the ASX Fang+ ETF in February 2020.

Since inception, this ASX ETF’s total returns have averaged 31.95% per annum.

So, how does this translate for a $10,000 investment in the FANG ETF three years ago?

What is a $10,000 investment in FANG ETF now worth?

On 21 November 2022, the FANG ETF closed at $11.26 apiece.

If you had invested $10,000 in FANG then, it would have bought you 888 units (for $9,998.88).

There’s been a capital gain of $24.64 per unit since then, which equates to $21,880 of capital growth.

Therefore, your portfolio is now worth $31,879.

What about dividends?

FANG usually pays two distributions (dividends) per annum.

Over the past three years, the FANG ETF has paid a total of 390.17 cents per unit in distributions, providing you with $3,464 of income.

Total returns…

Your capital gain of $21,880 plus your income of $3,464 gives you a total return in dollar terms of $25,344 over the past three years.

Now remember, you invested $9,998.88 buying your 888 units on 22 November 2022.

This means you have received a total return, in percentage terms, of 253%.

The FANG ETF has more than $1 billion in funds under management and charges a 0.35% annual fee.

The post $10,000 invested in FANG+ ETF 3 years ago is now worth… appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Amid this tech sell-off, is this the right time to buy Global X Fang+ ETF?

Suzanne Frey, an executive at Alphabet, is a member of The Motley Fool’s board of directors. Randi Zuckerberg, a former director of market development and spokeswoman for Facebook and sister to Meta Platforms CEO Mark Zuckerberg, is a member of The Motley Fool’s board of directors. John Mackey, former CEO of Whole Foods Market, an Amazon subsidiary, is a member of The Motley Fool’s board of directors. Motley Fool contributor Bronwyn Allen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, CrowdStrike, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Netflix, Nvidia, and ServiceNow. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has recommended Broadcom and has recommended the following options: long January 2026 $395 calls on Microsoft and short January 2026 $405 calls on Microsoft. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, CrowdStrike, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Netflix, Nvidia, and ServiceNow. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is having a tough finish to the week. In afternoon trade, the benchmark index is down 1.45% to 8,429.7 points.

Four ASX shares that are not letting that hold them back are listed below. Here’s why they are rising:

Gentrack Group Ltd (ASX: GTK)

The Gentrack share price is up 7.5% to $6.82. This morning, this billing software company revealed that its new g2 platform has been selected to enhance operations and customer experience at Pennon Water Services. It is one of the UK’s leading business water and wastewater retailers. This marks the first customer to adopt g2 in the UK, and the first g2 water implementation. In other news, Bell Potter reaffirmed its buy rating on Gentrack’s shares with a reduced price target of $9.80. It said: “We are positive on secular tailwinds in decentralised energy driving utility billing stack transformations broadly.”

Kogan.com Ltd (ASX: KGN)

The Kogan share price is up over 1% to $3.03. Investors have been buying this online retailer’s shares following the release of an update at its annual general meeting. Kogan revealed that in the first four months of FY 2026, adjusted EBITDA was $10.1 million with a margin of 6.5%. The latter is within its guidance range of 6% to 9%.

Webjet Group Ltd (ASX: WJL)

The Webjet share price is up over 2% to 91 cents. This has been driven by news that the online travel agent has received another takeover offer. Helloword Travel Ltd (ASX: HLO) made an offer of 90 cents per share earlier this week, but this morning BGH Capital has joined the bidding with a 91 cents per share proposal. In response, the company said: “After carefully considering the revised BGH proposal, the Webjet board has agreed with BGH’s request to provide BGH with an opportunity to conduct due diligence, subject to the parties agreeing to a mutually acceptable non-disclosure agreement.”

WiseTech Global Ltd (ASX: WTC)

The WiseTech Global share price is up 4% to $66.82. This morning, this logistics solutions technology company released its annual general meeting update and reaffirmed its guidance for FY 2026. WiseTech’s new CEO, Zubin Appoo, said: “Looking ahead, we reconfirm our guidance and expect revenue between $1.39 and $1.44 billion and EBITDA of $550 to $585 million. As outlined when we announced our FY25 Results in August, the e2open integration will temporarily impact margins – and that is exactly as planned. We have a clear execution roadmap, backed by more than three decades of successfully integrating strategic acquisitions and rebuilding margin strength. We know how to do this.”

The post Why Gentrack, Kogan, Webjet, and WiseTech shares are pushing higher today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• How high could the bidding war for Webjet go?
• Why are ASX 200 tech stocks getting smashed on Friday?
• Why are WiseTech Global shares tumbling 4% today?
• Guess which ASX tech stock is tipped to rise 50%+
• 3 ASX shares I’d buy with $20,000 today

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has positions in WiseTech Global. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Gentrack Group, Kogan.com, and WiseTech Global. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Gentrack Group and WiseTech Global. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Kogan.com. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is ending the week deep in the red. In afternoon trade, the benchmark index is down 1.35% to 8,437.1 points.

Four ASX shares that are falling more than most today are listed below. Here’s why they are dropping:

Accent Group Ltd (ASX: AX1)

The Accent share price is down over 12% to $1.05. Investors have been selling the footwear retailer’s shares following the release of guidance for FY 2026. Accent revealed that it expects first half earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) in the range of $55 million to $60 million. This is down sharply from $80.7 million in the first half of FY 2025. For the full year, EBIT in the range of $85 million to $95 million is expected. This will be down from $110.2 million in FY 2025. This has been driven by like for like sales weakness and margin pressure due to promotional activity.

DroneShield Ltd (ASX: DRO)

The DroneShield share price is down over 7% to $1.75. This could have been driven by news that the US is pushing for Ukraine and Russia to sign a peace deal. While peace would clearly be good news for the world, it could mean lower counter drone sales in the near term.

Lovisa Holdings Ltd (ASX: LOV)

The Lovisa share price is down almost 10% to $31.45. This follows the release of a trading update from the fashion jewellery retailer this morning. Despite what you might expect given the share price weakness, Lovisa has started FY 2026 in a very positive fashion. It revealed that it has increased its store network by 44 stores so far in FY 2026 to 1,075 stores across more than 50 markets. This means it is currently trading from 148 more stores than this time last year. In addition, it advised that global total sales for the first 20 weeks of FY 2026 were up 26.2% on the prior corresponding period. Management notes that it is “benefiting from the continued growth in the store network over the past year, with global comparable store sales up 3.5% on FY25 for this period.” This sales growth is ahead of consensus estimates.

Pilbara Minerals Ltd (ASX: PLS)

The Pilbara Minerals share price is down almost 7% to $3.91. Investors have been selling lithium shares on Friday following a poor night of trade for their peers on Wall Street. It seems that with market volatility returning today, investors have been quick to hit the sell button on high risk investments and switch into safe haven assets.

The post Why Accent, DroneShield, Lovisa, and Pilbara Minerals shares are sinking today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Lovisa shares tank more than 10% on weaker than expected sales growth
• Why is this ASX 300 stock crashing 18% today?
• Lovisa holds AGM; provides a positive trading update
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Friday
• 3 ASX 200 shares I’m avoiding next week

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has positions in Accent Group and Lovisa. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended DroneShield and Lovisa. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Accent Group and Lovisa. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

This article was originally published on Fool.com. All figures quoted in US dollars unless otherwise stated.

Shares of Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) are up 4.5% in Wednesday’s after-hours trading as of 5:57 p.m. ET, following the artificial intelligence (AI) tech leader’s release of its report for its third quarter of fiscal 2026 (ended Oct. 26, 2025).

Investors’ positive reaction is attributable to Q3 revenue and adjusted earnings per share both beating Wall Street’s estimates, and Q4 guidance for both the top and bottom lines also coming in higher than analysts had expected.

The strong guidance was probably the most significant catalyst for Nvidia stock’s upward move. It’s an indication that the outlook for the AI market in general remains robust.

In recent weeks, Nvidia and other AI stocks have been struggling. Investors have become increasingly concerned about AI stock valuations, fearing that an AI stock bubble may be forming. These struggles were in part caused by the Nov. 4 revelation that Michael Burry, now a former hedge fund manager, took bearish positions (by buying put options) on Nvidia and Palantir stocks in the third quarter. 

Nvidia’s key numbers

Generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) numbers include one-time items. Investors should focus on the adjusted numbers, which exclude one-time items.

Wall Street was looking for adjusted EPS of $1.26 on revenue of $55.09 billion, so Nvidia exceeded both expectations. It also beat its own guidance, which was for adjusted EPS of $1.22 on revenue of $54 billion.

For the quarter, GAAP and adjusted gross margins were 73.4% and 73.6%, respectively.

Platform performance

The data center platform’s performance was driven by “three platform shifts — accelerated computing, powerful AI models, and agentic applications,” Colette Kress said in her CFO commentary. She added that “Blackwell Ultra is now our leading architecture across all customer categories while our prior Blackwell architecture saw continued strong demand.”

The 1% sequential slip in gaming revenue is no cause for concern. Kress said that distribution channels have reached “more normalized levels heading into the holiday season.”

Professional visualization had a strong quarter, driven by the launch of the company’s new DGX Spark (a compact AI supercomputer) and the growth of Blackwell sales.

Auto revenue growth was driven by the continued adoption of Nvidia’s self-driving platforms, which are widely adopted by car companies and others developing driverless technology and driverless vehicles.

What the CEO had to say

CEO Jensen Huang stated in the earnings release:

Blackwell sales are off the charts, and cloud [computing] GPUs [graphics processing units] are sold out. Compute demand keeps accelerating and compounding across training and inference — each growing exponentially. We’ve entered the virtuous cycle of AI. The AI ecosystem is scaling fast — with more new foundation model makers, more AI start-ups, across more industries, and in more countries. AI is going everywhere, doing everything, all at once.

Guidance for the fourth quarter

For Q4 of fiscal 2026, which ends in late January, management expects revenue of $65 billion, representing a year-over-year growth rate of 65%.

Management also guided (albeit indirectly, by providing several inputs) for adjusted EPS of $1.50, representing 69% growth.

Going into the report, Wall Street had been modeling for Q4 adjusted EPS of $1.43 on revenue of $61.84 billion, so the company’s outlook sprinted by both expectations.

Nvidia stock is not in a bubble

In short, Nvidia delivered yet another report with fantastic quarterly results and strong guidance.

Nvidia stock is not in a bubble. Shares were priced at 52 times trailing one-year earnings and 27 times forward one-year earnings at the close of Wednesday’s regular trading session. These are reasonable valuations for a company that has just grown its quarterly adjusted EPS by 60% and guided for adjusted EPS growth of 69% next quarter.

This article was originally published on Fool.com. All figures quoted in US dollars unless otherwise stated.

The post Nvidia stock in an AI bubble? The AI giant’s fantastic Q3 results and guidance should put that concern to rest appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

This article was originally published on Fool.com. All figures quoted in US dollars unless otherwise stated.

This article was originally published on Fool.com. All figures quoted in US dollars unless otherwise stated.

More reading

• Bitcoin price collapse leads US$1 trillion crypto crash
• Why are ASX 200 tech stocks getting smashed on Friday?
• AI bubble worries are rising. Nvidia’s $31.9 billion profit says otherwise.
• Where will Nvidia stock be in 3 years?
• Why DroneShield, GQG Partners, Origin Energy, and Worley shares are falling today

Beth McKenna has positions in Nvidia. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Nvidia. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Nvidia. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The S&P 500 Index (SP: .INX) took a tumble overnight.

Amid diminishing hopes for another US Fed interest rate cut in 2025, and mounting concerns over a potential AI bubble, the S&P 500 closed down 1.6% on Thursday, ending the day at 6,539 points.

This sees the benchmark US stock market index down 5.1% since notching its record closing high of 6,891 points on 28 October.

Taking a step back, however, the US index has still materially outperformed the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO).

Year to date, the ASX 200 is up 2.9% while the S&P 500 has gained 11.2% over this same period.

As for the year ahead, the team at Morgan Stanley forecasts a big uplift for the US markets.

We’ll look at one ASX ETF (exchange-traded fund) that stands to benefit from that bullish forecast below.

But first…

Why Morgan Stanley expects the S&P 500 to surge in 2026

“We believe a new bull market began in April with the end of a rolling recession and bear market,” Morgan Stanley chief US equity strategist Mike Wilson said on Wednesday. “Remember the S&P 500 was down 20% and the average S&P stock was down more than 30% into April.”

According to Wilson:

This narrative remains underappreciated, and we think there is significant upside in earnings over the next year as the recovery broadens and operating leverage returns with better volumes and pricing in many parts of the economy.

Our forecasts reflect this upside to earnings which is another reason why many stocks are not as expensive as they appear despite our acknowledgement that some areas of the market may appear somewhat frothy.

And Morgan Stanley expects the US index, and by extension, the ASX ETF we’ll examine below, to come roaring back.

“For the S&P 500, our 12-month target is now 7,800, which assumes 17% earnings growth next year and a very modest contraction in valuation from today’s levels,” Wilson said.

That target represents a 19.3% upside from current levels.

As for which stocks could lead the charge, Wilson added:

Our favourite sectors include Financials, Industrials, and Healthcare. We are also upgrading Consumer Discretionary to overweight and prefer Goods over Services for the first time since 2021.

How to mirror those outsized potential gains with one ASX ETF

If you’re looking to mimic the potential 19% plus gains Morgan Stanley expects from the S&P 500, you might want to have a look at the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (ASX: SPY).

The ASX ETF provides you with exposure to 500 of the largest US-listed companies, with the goal of tracking the performance of the benchmark US index.

The ASX ETF’s largest four holdings are Nvidia Corp (NASDAQ: NVDA), Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ: MSFT), Apple Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL), and Amazon.com Inc (NASDAQ: AMZN).

The post Why Morgan Stanley’s S&P 500 target forecasts a 19% gain for this top ASX ETF appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Bitcoin price collapse leads US$1 trillion crypto crash
• Why are ASX 200 tech stocks getting smashed on Friday?
• AI bubble worries are rising. Nvidia’s $31.9 billion profit says otherwise.
• Where will Nvidia stock be in 3 years?
• Why DroneShield, GQG Partners, Origin Energy, and Worley shares are falling today

Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Amazon, Microsoft, and Nvidia. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has recommended the following options: long January 2026 $395 calls on Microsoft and short January 2026 $405 calls on Microsoft. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Amazon, Microsoft, and Nvidia. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The S&P/ASX 200 Energy Index (ASX: XEJ) has dropped 1.39% at the time of writing on Friday morning. But both Ampol Ltd (ASX: ALD) and Viva Energy Group Ltd (ASX: VEA) shares are travelling in the opposite direction.

At the time of writing, Ampol shares are 0.13% higher, trading at $31.28 each. For the month, the shares are trading 4.79% higher, and they’re now 9.6% higher than this time last year.

Meanwhile, Viva Energy shares are trading 2.53% higher at the time of writing, at $2.02 a piece. Over the past month, the ASX 200 energy company’s shares have stormed 15.71% higher, but since January, the stock’s price has fallen 24.44%.

There has been no price-sensitive news out of either energy business this morning, but analysts at Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) have written to investors about their improved outlook on both stocks.

Macquarie upgrades Ampol shares, target price raised

The broker has raised its outlook on the ASX 200 energy company’s shares to outperform from neutral. It has also raised its target price to $36, up from $32 last month.

At the time of writing, that implies a potential 15.1% upside for investors over the next 12 months.

“ALD executing well on M&A and non-refining (NZ had a tough 3Q, but improving). U-GO conversions add network resilience (but don’t all need to work successfully). Lytton ULSG project has been tough with delays and capex overruns, but ALD should now capture the cycle until its deferred FCCU turnaround (1H-2026, mainly impacting gasoline),” the broker said in its investor note. 

Macquarie has also raised Ampol‘s 2025 and 2026 estimated earnings per share (EPS) by 4% and 10% respectively, on stronger refining margins.

“Our TP is +12.5% to $36.00/sh (still based on 16x P/E rolling NTM) based on the earnings upgrades. We had hoped for a better re-entry point ahead of full year results, however with refining margins now surging into heating season we no longer expect this to occur.”

Macquarie’s revised outlook for Viva Energy shares shows robust upside

The broker has also raised its outlook on Viva Energy shares to outperform, up from neutral. It has raised its target price on the ASX 200 company’s shares to $3.20, up significantly from the $2 target price last month.

At the time of writing, this suggests a potential upside of 58.4% over the next 12 months.

“The CEXP & OTR acquisitions have disappointed on earnings runrate, high site conversion costs, progressive loss of tobacco business & culminating with head of C&M resigning. Market appears to be ignoring refining leverage that still exists at Geelong (far more material in an upcycle than C&M’s incremental growth could have been in same period),” the broker said.

Macquarie has raised Viva Energy’s estimated EPS for 2025 and 2026 by 17% and 33%, respectively, based on stronger refining margins.

“Our TP is +60% to $3.20/sh, factoring the earnings as well as a target P/E expansion (14x rolling NTM, was 12x), reflecting healthier cashflow and balance sheet (refining windfall helps to accelerate post-OTR deleveraging).”

What else did the broker have to say about the ASX 200 shares?

Macquarie’s analysts said that the refined product markets are tight, with constrained Russian product supply, relatively low inventories (particularly diesel), and surprisingly solid demand. 

They added that net capacity additions have slowed down versus recent years, given that major capacities are now in service, and China exports appear constrained. 

The analysts also commented that Russian sanctions and increased Ukrainian drone attacks are driving the risk premium. Some drivers, such as high refinery outages, are likely to be temporary, while others, like reduced Russian exports, are likely to be more structural.

The post Macquarie upgrades 2 ASX 200 energy stocks; suggests strong upside appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• ASX 200 energy shares lead the market again
• Macquarie names 16 potential ASX takeover targets
• Demand for nuclear power pushed ASX 200 energy shares higher last week
• Ampol successfully issues $500 million subordinated notes

Motley Fool contributor Samantha Menzies has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) has been one of the standout performers on the ASX this year – and for obvious reasons. The ASX 200 gold company’s share price has increased by more than 65% in 2025.  

Global gold player

The Perth-based gold miner has grown into a $38 billion global producer. In FY 2025, Northern Star delivered very chunky results. It operates two world-class operations in Western Australia and Alaska and retained investors’ attention with acquisitions to add scale.

The gold producer recently acquired the Hemi development project in the Pilbara through its takeover of De Grey Mining. This offers Northern Star a future income stream. It also stepped up its investments in the expansion of the KCGM mill in Kalgoorlie.

Northern Star is a classic mid-to-large cap mining story. It has benefitted directly from an increasing gold price, managed to convert that tailwind into real cash flows and used scale to become a popular ASX 200 gold share for investors looking for gold exposure with a relatively mature operating base.

Familiar caveats

The caveats for Northern Star are familiar: commodity cyclicality and execution risk. Today’s share developments make that clear. At the time of writing, the ASX gold share is changing hands for $25.80 apiece, down 2.7%. The reason for the decline is the gold price that fell overnight.

The appeal of gold as a safe haven remains strong during times of geopolitical uncertainty and macroeconomic risk. America’s biggest bank, JPMorgan Chase & Co (NYSE: JPM), and French bank Societe Generale SA say the gold price could exceed US$5,000 per ounce next year. 

The current gold price dropped overnight by 0.35% to US$4,069 per ounce, so analysts believe there’s room to grow.

What do analysts think?

Despite this year’s dream run, most analysts still see Northern Star as a buy. Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) has an outperform rating and a $30 price target on the ASX stock.

Based on its current share price, this implies potential upside of almost 17% for investors over the next 12 months. The broker is also forecasting a 2% dividend yield in FY 2026, boosting the total potential return to 19%.

Morgans also has an accumulate rating on Northern Star shares, but is a little less optimistic than the team at Macquarie.  

The broker expects the Northern Star Resources share price to lift to $27.41 by this time next year.

NST delivered a softer (but well flagged) quarterly result with unit costs surprising to the upside despite lower than forecast ounce production. FY26 guidance was reiterated, we expect production rates to continue to lift quarter on quarter.

The post Why this ASX 200 gold share is powering ahead appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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JPMorgan Chase is an advertising partner of Motley Fool Money. Motley Fool contributor Marc Van Dinther has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended JPMorgan Chase and Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Webjet Group Ltd (ASX: WJL) is now fielding two separate takeover bids, with BGH Capital joining Helloword Travel Ltd (ASX: HLO) in indicating it’s keen on buying out the company.

However, analysts at RBC Capital Markets believe that yet another bidder could enter the fray, potentially driving the price paid for the company even higher.

HelloWorld lobbed a potential bid for Webjet earlier this week, stating it would look to acquire the company for $0.90 per share, subject to due diligence and other conditions, including a unanimous recommendation from the Webjet board in favour of the deal.

This has been followed on Friday morning by a once again non-binding offer from BGH priced at 91 cents per share, which is also seeking a unanimous recommendation from the Webjet board.

The BGH bid follows a previous proposal put to Webjet in May this year to buy the company for 80 cents per share.

BGH already controls major stake

Webjet said in a statement to the ASX on Friday that BGH already had control over a significant proportion of the company’s issued capital.

As it told the ASX:

Pursuant to a co-operation agreement with Portfolio Services Pty Ltd, an entity associated with Ariadne Australia Ltd and Gary Weiss, BGH has a total relevant interest of 18.3% in Webjet ordinary shares.

Conditions associated with the BGH bid include that it attain control over at least 75% of Webjet shares and the required regulatory approvals.

Similar to the HelloWorld bid, the Webjet board will now allow BGH access to its books to conduct due diligence.

As the company said:

After carefully considering the revised BGH proposal, the Webjet board has agreed with BGH’s request to provide BGH with an opportunity to conduct due diligence, subject to the parties agreeing to a mutually acceptable non-disclosure agreement.

Webjet shares were trading at 91.5 cents on Friday morning, up 2.5 cents.

Analysts at RBC Capital Markets believe that the takeover tussle may intensify even further, as they said in a note issued to clients on Friday.

Two competing bidders, with the board granting both access to due diligence would indicate to us that Webjet is very much in play. We continue to believe Webjet possesses attributes (strong market position, brand awareness, cash generation and cash balance etc.) that would appeal to both trade and financial buyers alike. We do not consider it unreasonable that another bidder may enter the fray.

RBC has a price target of $1.10 on Webjet shares.

Solid first-half results

Webjet earlier this week reported its first-half results and declared an inaugural dividend of 2 cents per share.

The company announced on Wednesday that its first-half revenue totalled $67.9 million, representing a 1% decrease from the same period last year, while net profit increased to $6.2 million, a 41% rise.

Webjet said it was a “challenging trading environment for the group”, with bookings down 8% and total transaction volumes down 3%.

Domestic bookings were down by 10%, while international bookings were up 4% and made up 22% of total flight bookings.

The company will pay a 2-cent first-half dividend, equivalent to 100% of underlying net profit, “consistent with the announced intention of maximising the distribution of franking credits as they become available, including the payment of special dividends above the target ratio”.

Webjet said a proposed buyback program was on hold for now.

Webjet Managing Director Katrina Barry said the results were “broadly in line with expectations, demonstrating the resilience of our business, despite experiencing challenging market conditions”.

The post How high could the bidding war for Webjet go? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Cameron England has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.