Tag: Stock pick

Investors will not hear from Coles Group Ltd (ASX: COL) this earnings season until much later this month. Coles is scheduled to drop its latest half-year earnings report on 27 February, meaning we have quite a few ASX 200 shares to get through before we hear from the supermarket operator. So today, let’s talk about the current Coles stock price and whether it is cheap enough for me.

I’ve long advocated Coles stock as a dividend investment, perfect for income-focused investors. Its nature as a defensive consumer staples stock makes Coles a reliable provider of dividend paycheques. This is evident in Coles’ impressive dividend track record, which has seen this company reward shareholders with an annual dividend hike every year since 2019.

However, I am not an investor who solely prioritises dividend income. I try to aim for the highest absolute returns possible in my own portfolio, whether those returns come from dividends or from capital growth.

As such, I don’t own Coles shares at the present time. But I wouldn’t be opposed to adding this company to my portfolio, given its clear moat, pricing power, and huge store network. It would have to be at the right price, though.

So what is the right price for Coles?

What share price would I buy Coles stock at?

Well, it’s not the price at the time of writing of $22.98. At this stock price, Coles is trading on a dividend yield of 3.12%. That means its shares would need to appreciate by a compounded 5.1% per annum over the years ahead just to keep up with the long-term return of the market (8.2%). That is certainly possible, but unlikely in my view. Last year, Coles reported underlying profit growth of 3.1% for its FY2025. If profits grow at 3% per annum on average going forward, it’s unlikely that its share price growth will meaningfully exceed that growth rate.

I estimate that for Coles to be a consistent market beater, it would need to have a dividend yield of at least 5%. Given Coles paid out 69 cents per share in fully-franked dividends over 2025, we would need to see the company’s share price drop to about $13.80 to reach a 5% dividend yield.

I’d be happy to pay $14.50 or even $15 for Coles stock, since the company has a strong track record of increasing its dividends. But I wouldn’t be paying anything close to $20, let alone the $22 the company is going for at the time of writing.

So while I still hold the view that Coles is a strong income stock, I don’t see it as a long-term market beater at current prices.

The post Here’s the share price I would buy Coles stock at appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Why it’s a great time to buy these ASX 200 shares in these rocky times
• 3 ways to play the ASX tech share sell-off
• Is this the right time to invest in ASX defensive shares?
• How Aldi is planning to disrupt Woolworths and Coles
• Australian defensive stocks to buy now for stability

Motley Fool contributor Sebastian Bowen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The NextDC Ltd (ASX: NXT) share price is trading 1.93% lower today at $13.75.

However, despite edging lower on Monday, NextDC shares are up almost 10% over the past month. That compares with a roughly 18% decline in the S&P/ASX All Technology Index (ASX: XTX) over the same period.

So why is this S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) stock holding up?

Let’s take a closer look.

Why are tech stocks under pressure?

The recent sell-off has been driven by a reset in expectations around artificial intelligence (AI).

Over the past year, many technology stocks rallied strongly on the back of AI optimism. Valuations expanded as investors priced in rapid revenue growth and long-term margin expansion.

In recent weeks, that enthusiasm has cooled. Markets are reassessing how quickly AI spending will convert into earnings, particularly for software and platform businesses still investing heavily.

As a result, higher growth companies have seen valuations compress sharply. That change in sentiment has weighed on the broader technology sector, including ASX-listed tech stocks.

What does NextDC do?

NextDC is not a software company. It develops and operates data centres that provide colocation and connectivity services to enterprises, cloud providers, and government customers.

It owns and runs the physical infrastructure that houses servers and network equipment. These facilities are critical for cloud computing, digital services, and increasingly AI workloads, which require significant computing power and secure environments.

Because of this model, NextDC generates recurring revenue from long-term customer contracts and capacity utilisation rather than from software licence or subscription sales.

Recent developments

Today, the company received development approval for its M4 Melbourne data centre project. This supports its expansion pipeline and reflects continued demand for high-quality data centre capacity in major metropolitan markets.

NextDC has previously highlighted growth in contracted utilisation and a rising forward order book. This provides greater visibility over future revenue as new capacity comes online.

The business continues to invest heavily in new facilities, with capital expenditure directed toward expanding its national footprint and supporting customer growth.

Is it a buy?

NextDC’s outperformance relative to the broader tech sector suggests investors view it more as infrastructure than as a high-growth software stock.

Structural demand for data storage, cloud services, and high-performance computing remains solid. Even if sentiment toward software companies stays weak, the need for physical data centre capacity is unlikely to fade.

That said, the business operates in a capital-intensive industry and continues to invest heavily in expansion. It also trades on growth expectations, which can leave the share price exposed during periods of market volatility.

NextDC may appeal to investors seeking exposure to the infrastructure underpinning digital and AI growth.

The post This ASX 200 tech stock is defying the AI sell off. Is it a buy? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today
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• 3 ASX 200 stocks smashing the benchmark this week
• A once-in-a-decade chance to buy ASX 200 tech stocks like WiseTech, Megaport and NextDC?
• Where to invest $10,000 in ASX growth shares

Motley Fool contributor Aaron Teboneras has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

S&P/ASX 300 Metal & Mining Index (ASX: XMM) stocks are 0.65% lower on Monday as earnings season continues.

Mining shares are in the midst of a great run, with the XMM index rising 42.5% over the past 12 months.

If you’re looking for investment inspiration, here are two ASX mining stocks with buy ratings from the experts.

Santana Minerals Ltd (ASX: SMI)

The Santana Minerals share price is steady at 99 cents today, but is up 67% over the past 12 months.

Santana Minerals owns the large-scale, long-life Bendigo-Ophir Gold Project (BOGP) on the South Island of New Zealand.

Shaw & Partners has a buy rating and a 12-month share price target of $2.15 on this ASX gold share.

This suggests a possible near-120% capital gain over the next year.

The broker said:

Santana Minerals Limited (ASX:SMI) has announced that the Fast-Track Approval (FTA) Panel Convener has confirmed a 140 working-day statutory timeframe for determination of the Bendigo-Ophir Gold Project (BOGP), with a decision due by 29 October 2026.

The timeline is longer than expected (60-100 days) but now provides certainty in the process.

Development consent is now expected to be granted in H2 CY26. 

BOGP’s tenements cover 251 sq km in the Central Otago goldfields, 90 km northwest of OceanaGold‘s renowned Macraes gold mine.

Shaw & Partners said the current development plan has an initial mine life of about 14 years.

A reserve of 1.2Moz at 2.6g/t Au is contained within a resource of 2.3Moz at 2.1g/t Au. 

Production expectations are about 120koz per year.

Canaccord Genuity is also buy-rated on this ASX mining stock with a 12-month price target of $2.30.

RBC Capital also rates Santana Minerals shares a buy, but it has a much more conservative price target of $1.20.

Nexgen Energy (Canada) CDI (ASX: NXG)

This ASX uranium mining stock is $16.27, up 1.4% today and up 68% over the past year.

Nexgen’s flagship project, Rook I, is the largest development-stage uranium project in Canada.

The company hopes to turn Rook I into the largest, low-cost uranium mine in the world.

Bell Potter has a buy rating on this ASX mining stock.

Last month, the broker raised its 12-month share price target for Nexgen from $13.05 to $19.30.

This suggests a near-20% potential upside over the next year.

Stuart Bromley from Medallion Financial Group also has a buy rating on Nexgen shares.

Bromley said:

NexGen continues its journey to become a long life and low cost uranium producer in mining friendly Canada, a geopolitically stable country.

The company recently revealed the Patterson Corridor East discovery is expanding rapidly on multiple fronts.

Vertical and lateral growth materially increases the mineralised footprint and leaves potential additional discoveries open at depth and along strike — precisely what the market wants from a basin-scale uranium play.

The post 2 ASX mining stocks with buy ratings appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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• Up more than 100% in a year, this gold stock could double again one broker says
• Experts think these 2 ASX 300 shares are great buys in February
• ASX 200 uranium shares: Buy 1, sell the other
• Why DroneShield, Life360, Nova Minerals, and Santana shares are falling today
• Best 3 ASX 200 uranium shares of 2025

Motley Fool contributor Bronwyn Allen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

With so many shares to choose from on the Australian share market, it can be difficult to decide which ones to buy. The good news is that brokers across the country are doing a lot of the hard work for you.

Three top ASX shares that leading brokers have named as buys this week are listed below. Here’s why they are bullish on them:

Deep Yellow Ltd (ASX: DYL)

According to a note out of Morgans, its analysts have retained their speculative buy rating on this uranium company’s shares with an improved price target of $2.56. The broker has been busy updating its outlook and forecasts for Deep Yellow to reflect a series of changes at the corporate, project, and macro level. It notes that key revisions include adjustments to first production timing at Tumas, its cash position, and an uplift in its bull-case uranium price assumption. This has ultimately led to a sizeable upgrade to its valuation. The Deep Yellow share price is trading at $2.38 on Monday afternoon.

Nick Scali Limited (ASX: NCK)

A note out of Bell Potter reveals that its analysts have retained their buy rating on this furniture retailer’s shares with a reduced price target of $25.00. The broker notes that Nick Scali’s half-year profit was comfortably ahead of expectations. It notes that this was driven by strong gross margins and operating leverage, which was well assisted by revenue growth of 13%. One negative was that its written sales orders in the ANZ market were only up 3.1% on the prior corresponding period. This was a slower start than it was expecting. Nevertheless, it remains positive. Bell Potter highlights that it continues to favour category outperformers such as Nick Scali and sees lower risk on margins in manoeuvring revenue growth vs other retailers in its coverage. The Nick Scali share price is fetching $18.26 at the time of writing.

Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST)

Another note out of Bell Potter reveals that its analysts have retained their buy rating on this gold miner’s shares with an improved price target of $35.00. This follows the release of a half-year update that was largely in line with expectations. While the broker concedes that there is uncertainty relating to how quickly the business can rectify remaining disruptions, it believes it is worth sticking with the miner. This is especially the case given its belief that Northern Star will hit a cashflow inflection point in FY 2028. At that point, it sees potential for capital returns or buybacks should KCGM reach capacity ahead of cash outlays for the Hemi operation. The Northern Star share price is trading at $28.85 this afternoon.

The post Leading brokers name 3 ASX shares to buy today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Nick Scali. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

ASX earnings season is continuing with gusto this week. Today, we’ve heard from a number of ASX 200 shares, including JB Hi-Fi Ltd (ASX: JBH). Income investors will certainly want to check out the new JB Hi-Fi dividend.

As we went through this morning, it was a fairly impressive earnings report that we saw from JB today.

The entertainment and appliance retailer posted its numbers for the six months to 31 December. Over this period, JB brought in $6.1 billion in total sales revenue, a solid 7.3% rise over the same period in 2024. JB also revealed earnings before interest and tax of $454 million, up 8.1%. That translated into an earnings per share (EPS) metric of $2.797, up 7.1%.

On the bottom line, JB unveiled a net profit after tax (NPAT) of $305.8 million, also up 7.1%. The company ended the half-year with net cash of $489.5 million on its balance sheet.

The market seems quite chuffed with what JB had to say this morning. That’s going off the fact that the JB Hi-Fi share price is currently up a comfortable 7.56% at $82.48.

But let’s talk dividends.

JB Hi-Fi reveals monstrous record dividend

Income investors will be delighted with the dividend that JB Hi-Fi announced today. The company’s first dividend for 2026 will be worth a record $2.10 per share, its highest dividend ever. As is the company’s habit, this payout will come with full franking credits attached.

This interim dividend represents a 23.5% increase on the $1.70 dividend that was announced this time last year. It is also up 2.44% on the final dividend of $2.05 per share that investors received in September. This dramatic dividend hike was enabled by JB’s change to its dividend policy, first announced last year. From these earnings, the company is aiming to now pay out between 70% and 80% of its net profits as dividends. That’s up from the previous payout ratio policy of 65%. Today’s fresh dividend is right in the middle of that range at 75%.

This new interim dividend will be doled out next month on 13 March. Investors who don’t yet own JB shares have until 25 February this month to secure shares with the rights to this dividend attached. JB will then trade ex-dividend on 26 February. There is no dividend reinvestment plan (DRP) running on this payment though, so investors have no choice but to accept the payout in cash.

Now that we know how much JB Hi-Fi’s latest dividend is worth, the company now trades on a forward dividend yield of 5.03% at the current share price.

The post Up 23%: Everything you need to know about the massive JB Hi-Fi dividend appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Why A2 Milk, Aurizon, JB Hi-Fi, and Magnetic Resources shares are storming higher today
• JB Hi-Fi shares jump 5% on results day. Is this the turnaround investors were waiting for?
• JB Hi-Fi posts record first-half sales, profit and dividend lift
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Motley Fool contributor Sebastian Bowen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Shares in Pacific Lime and Cement Ltd (ASX: PLA) are moving higher on Monday after the company announced a major commercial agreement.

In late afternoon trade, the Pacific Lime and Cement share price is up 3.51% to 29.5 cents. That rise builds on recent momentum, with the shares climbing more than 11% over the past week.

Let’s take a closer look at the release.

Major customer secured for Central Lime Project

Pacific Lime and Cement announced it has signed a long-term quicklime offtake agreement with Newmont Corp (ASX: NEM), one of the world’s largest gold producers.

Under the agreement, Newmont will become a cornerstone customer of the company’s Central Lime Project in Papua New Guinea. Contracted volumes are expected to represent about one-third of the project’s nameplate quicklime production capacity once operations begin.

Quicklime is used in gold processing and other industrial activities. By locking in a large foundation customer, Pacific Lime and Cement has moved closer to commercialising what is expected to be Papua New Guinea’s first domestic quicklime manufacturing operation.

Management said the agreement supports the development of local industry and reduces reliance on imported lime products. It also helps underpin the business case for the Central Lime Project as it moves closer to construction completion and first production.

Why this is important

Securing a customer the size of Newmont is an important step for a company that is still developing its main asset. It helps support future sales and could strengthen confidence among lenders, contractors, and other potential buyers.

The agreement is structured as a multi-year arrangement and will commence following construction completion and commissioning of the project.

Pacific Lime and Cement said it continues to progress discussions with additional domestic and regional customers as it advances towards first production.

Recent quarterly update

In its December 2025 quarterly activities and cash flow report, the company outlined ongoing progress at the Central Lime Project.

Construction activities are advancing, with work continuing across site preparation, infrastructure, and key plant components. The company is targeting first production after construction and commissioning milestones are achieved.

At the end of the December quarter, Pacific Lime and Cement reported cash reserves of approximately $54.6 million. This provides funding to support ongoing development and project-related costs.

The company does not currently generate operating revenue and remains in the development phase.

What investors will watch next

With a cornerstone customer now secured, the next key milestones will be construction progress, commissioning updates, and any additional offtake agreements.

The market appears to have welcomed the Newmont agreement. Shares are up 3.51% today and more than 11% over the past week as the Central Lime Project edges closer to production.

The post Why Pacific Lime and Cement shares are rising today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

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• How high could shares in Newmont Corporation go?

Motley Fool contributor Aaron Teboneras has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The Generation Development Group Ltd (ASX: GDG) share price is little changed on Monday afternoon after the company released an update to the market before the open.

At the time of writing, Generation Development shares are up 0.73% to $4.15. In comparison, the All Ordinaries Index (ASX: XAO) is up 0.1%.

The stock has fallen sharply in recent months and is down around 30% over the past month. It is now trading near the lower end of its 52-week range of $3.87 to $7.77.

Here is what investors need to know.

Company addresses takeover speculation

In an announcement to the ASX, Generation Development Group responded to a recent media report.

The company referred to an article in the Australian Financial Review, which suggested it could be considering a potential acquisition of Ironbark Asset Management.

In its response, GDG confirmed it is not currently in discussions to acquire Ironbark.

Management said the group regularly reviews potential merger and acquisition opportunities. However, it also said any transaction must meet its investment criteria and strategic objectives before moving forward.

The company added that it remains in full compliance with its ASX listing obligations.

What does Generation Development do

Generation Development is a financial services company focused on investment and retirement products.

Its key businesses include Generation Life, which provides investment bonds and lifetime annuities, and Lonsec, which offers investment research and ratings to financial advisers.

The group also owns Evidentia, a managed accounts business that supports advisers with portfolio solutions.

The company has grown in recent years through acquisitions, including taking full ownership of Lonsec and expanding its managed accounts offering.

These businesses are aimed at benefiting from long-term growth in Australia’s wealth and retirement sector.

Half-year results in focus

Looking ahead, Generation Development is due to report its half-year results at the end of the month.

The market will be watching closely for any updates on funds under management (FUM), net inflows, and earnings growth across Generation Life, Lonsec, and Evidentia. Any commentary around margins, adviser activity, and cost discipline could also influence sentiment following the recent share price weakness.

Where to from here

Investors will likely focus on the company’s ability to grow FUM and increase earnings across its divisions.

The retirement savings market remains a structural growth area, particularly as more Australians look for tax-effective investment options outside superannuation.

With the share price around $4.15, investors appear to be waiting for clearer signs of earnings growth or a new strategic development before reassessing the stock.

The post ASX wealth manager addresses takeover rumours. Here’s what happened appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Aaron Teboneras has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Generation Development Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is having a relatively positive start to the week. In afternoon trade, the benchmark index is up 0.2% to 8,935.8 points.

Four ASX shares that are rising more than most today are listed below. Here’s why they are storming higher:

A2 Milk Company Ltd (ASX: A2M)

The A2 Milk share price is up 4.5% to $8.90. Investors have been buying this infant formula company’s shares following the release of its half-year results. A2 Milk delivered a strong first-half performance and upgraded its guidance for FY 2026. With respect to the latter, management now expects revenue growth in the mid double-digit percentage range (from low double-digits) compared to FY 2025 continuing operations. A2 Milk’s managing director and CEO, David Bortolussi, said: “Our upgraded outlook means we are now on track to achieve our $2 billion medium term sales ambition in FY26, a full year ahead of plan. This is testament to the execution of our team and the strength of the a2 brand.”

Aurizon Holdings Ltd (ASX: AZJ)

The Aurizon Holdings share price is up 6% to $3.81. This has been driven by the release of the rail freight operator’s half-year results this morning. Aurizon reported a 16% increase in net profit after tax to $237 million. This allowed the company to increase its 90%-franked interim dividend by 36% to 12.5 cents per share. Aurizon’s managing director and CEO, Andrew Harding, said: “Today’s results underscore the strength of Aurizon’s two largest business units, Network and Coal and the continued growth of Bulk and Containerised Freight.”

JB Hi-Fi Ltd (ASX: JBH)

The JB Hi-Fi share price is up almost 7% to $81.81. The catalyst for this has been the release of the retail giant’s half-year results. JB Hi-Fi revealed a 7.3% increase in total sales to $6.1 billion and a 7.1% lift in net profit after tax to $305.8 million. Management advised that its focus on value supported its performance. JB Hi-Fi’s CEO, Nick Wells, said: “We are pleased to report record sales and strong earnings for HY26, as we built on the momentum of the previous year. In a retail environment where customers are seeking value, our brands continue to resonate strongly and our teams continue to execute to a high standard.”

Magnetic Resources NL (ASX: MAU)

The Magnetic Resources share price is up 27% to $2.03. This follows news that the gold explorer has received and accepted a takeover offer from Genesis Minerals Ltd (ASX: GMD). Magnetic shareholders will receive $1.40 cash and 0.0873 new Genesis shares for every share they own. This implies a value of $2.00 per share and values Magnetic Resources at ~$639 million. Genesis executive chair, Raleigh Finlayson, said: “This transaction creates substantial value for both groups of shareholders, delivering genuine synergies while combining the right assets with the right people. Magnetic’s Lady Julie Gold Project will add more than 2Moz at an attractive high grade to Genesis’ Laverton inventory, further bolstering the mine life and production outlook.”

The post Why A2 Milk, Aurizon, JB Hi-Fi, and Magnetic Resources shares are storming higher today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• A bigger than expected dividend has Aurizon shares performing well, but are they fully-priced?
• JB Hi-Fi shares jump 5% on results day. Is this the turnaround investors were waiting for?
• A2 Milk shares jump 12% on strong half-year result and guidance upgrade
• Aurizon Holdings hikes dividend after stronger FY2026 half-year profit
• Genesis Minerals lobs takeover bid for Magnetic Resources

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Shares in furniture retailer Nick Scali Ltd (ASX: NCK) have copped a hiding since the company reported its first-half results last week. Has that created a buying opportunity, or are there fundamental issues with the business?

The shares fell sharply on the day of the profit announcement, closing at $18.48 on Friday, down from $23.79 the previous day.

The shares have slid another 3.4% to be changing hands for $17.85 on Monday.

But it’s fair to say analysts are divided on the company’s fortunes going forward.

Firstly, let’s have a look at the results.

Solid local result

Nick Scali last Friday reported a net profit after tax of $41 million, up 23.1% on the previous corresponding period, on revenue of $269.3 million, up 9.2%.

While the company’s Australia and New Zealand division performed well, revenue in its much smaller UK division fell sharply by 38.5%.

Executive Chair Anthony Scali said regarding the results:

The first half delivered solid sales and profit growth in Australia/New Zealand with good progress made in the UK as the completion of store refurbishments and rebranding contributed to improvement in written sales orders. Statutory net profit after tax for the group was up 36% on the prior year, reflecting 13% growth in sales revenue in Australia/New Zealand and the improvement in gross profit margin in both the UK and Australia/New Zealand. We continue to grow our store network across ANZ with six new stores to be opened in FY26, and several new store opportunities currently under negotiation in the UK.

Analysts divided

Macquarie analysts have had a look at the result, and they like what they see, with an outperform rating on the stock and a price target of $21.60.

They said the first-half result was “strong, outperforming margin expectations and revenue in line”.

Net profit, they said, was 9% up on consensus expectations.

Macquarie said the market was expecting a better outlook than that delivered by the company last week, which was behind its previous share price appreciation and explained the sharp falls on Friday.

Barrenjoey analysts are not so bullish on the stock, with a neutral rating and a $17 price target, indicating they think further falls are on the cards.

They said the company would be impacted by increasing interest rates, which they have factored into their valuation.

They added:

We think a major reason for Nick Scali’s share price rally from less than $14 to more than $25 since April-24 is confidence around executing its UK expansion well. Longer term we think this will be a successful foray, but that there will be bumps along the way. If we assume our $200m valuation for the UK is fair (remember Nick Scali paid nothing for this business) it implies investors are paying 17.2x FY27 P/E for the Australia New Zealand business. Since listing over 20 years ago, Nick Scali has only once traded on more than 17x P/E (mid 2007), so while the quality of the business has improved over this period, we just don’t think there is much margin of safety here, especially as rates move higher.

The post Buy, sell or hold? Where to from here for plunging Nick Scali shares? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• These 2 ASX dividend shares are great buys right now
• Recap: Winners and losers from earnings season week 2
• Why Austal, Cochlear, Nick Scali, and WiseTech shares are tumbling today
• Nick Scali shares plunging 11% today despite big dividend boost
• Are Nick Scali and Northern Star Resources shares a buy, hold or sell before earnings results?

Motley Fool contributor Cameron England has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Nick Scali. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

When choosing between two popular exchange-traded funds (ETFs), the right answer is rarely black and white. Often, it comes down to what role you want the investment to play in your portfolio and how much volatility you are prepared to accept along the way.

Two of the most widely used ASX ETFs are the BetaShares Nasdaq 100 ETF (ASX: NDQ) and the Vanguard Australian Shares Index ETF (ASX: VAS). Both provide diversified exposure, both are low cost, and both can form the backbone of a long-term portfolio.

But they are built very differently.

What the NDQ ETF offers

The NDQ ETF tracks the Nasdaq 100 Index, which is heavily weighted toward global technology and innovation leaders.

The ETF provides exposure to some of the world’s most influential stocks across areas such as artificial intelligence, cloud computing, semiconductors, digital payments, and platform-based business models. These businesses often reinvest heavily in research and development and have scalable models capable of growing earnings at a strong pace.

The trade-off is volatility. Growth-focused stocks can experience sharper share price swings, particularly when interest rates move or sentiment shifts. The BetaShares Nasdaq 100 ETF’s performance can be strong over long periods, but it is unlikely to deliver a smooth ride every year.

For investors comfortable with fluctuations in pursuit of higher long-term growth, I think that profile can be appealing.

What VAS offers

The VAS ETF takes a very different approach. It tracks the top 300 stocks on the Australian market, offering broad exposure to banks, resources, healthcare, consumer businesses, and infrastructure. It is diversified across sectors and tends to provide steady dividend income from established Australian companies.

Because the Australian market is heavily weighted toward financials and mining, the Vanguard Australian Shares Index ETF is more tied to domestic economic conditions and commodity cycles. It generally delivers less dramatic growth than a technology-focused ETF, but it can offer more stability and income.

For investors with a lower risk tolerance or those seeking reliable dividends, the VAS ETF may feel more comfortable in my opinion.

The long-term return question

Over the very long term, total returns are driven largely by earnings growth. That is where the key difference lies.

The NDQ ETF’s holdings are concentrated in stocks that have historically grown earnings at a faster rate than the broader Australian market. While that does not guarantee future outperformance, I think it provides a reasonable case for stronger long-term growth potential.

The VAS ETF, by contrast, reflects the structure of the Australian economy. It offers stability and income, but its growth prospects are tied to mature sectors that may expand more gradually.

So which is the better buy?

I think both ETFs are sensible investments, and many portfolios could justify holding both.

If I had to choose just one based purely on long-term return potential, I would favour the BetaShares Nasdaq 100 ETF. I believe the quality and growth profile of its underlying stocks give it a stronger chance of delivering higher returns over an extended period.

However, that higher growth potential comes with higher volatility. For investors who prefer steadier returns and dividend income, the Vanguard Australian Shares Index ETF may be the more suitable choice.

Foolish takeaway

The NDQ ETF and the VAS ETF serve different purposes.

The BetaShares Nasdaq 100 ETF offers exposure to global innovation and potentially stronger long-term growth. The Vanguard Australian Shares Index ETF provides broad Australian market exposure and more predictable income.

The better buy ultimately depends on your risk tolerance and objectives. For me, I lean toward the NDQ ETF for its growth potential, but I can easily see why many investors would prefer the stability that the VAS ETF offers.

The post Which is the better buy: the NDQ ETF or the VAS ETF? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• How I would build an income portfolio that lasts a lifetime
• The ASX ETFs I think could beat the Australian share market over the next 5 years
• How ETFs can help investors build significant passive income
• How to go from zero to $50,000 with ASX shares
• 3 easy ways to invest in AI with ASX ETFs

Motley Fool contributor Grace Alvino has positions in Vanguard Australian Shares Index ETF. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended BetaShares Nasdaq 100 ETF. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended BetaShares Nasdaq 100 ETF. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.