Tag: Stock pick

The GQG Partners Inc (ASX: GQG) share price is in focus after the fund manager reported total funds under management (FUM) of US$162.5 billion as of 31 March 2026, reflecting net outflows of US$8.6 billion in the first quarter, partially offset by positive investment performance of US$7.3 billion.

What did GQG Partners report?

• Total FUM at 31 March 2026: US$162.5 billion, down from US$172.9 billion at the start of March
• Net outflows: US$1.2 billion for March; US$8.6 billion for the quarter
• Positive investment performance added US$7.3 billion in the quarter
• Core strategies (International, Emerging, Global, US) all outperformed their respective benchmarks
• Fees primarily based on assets managed, with little reliance on performance fees

What else do investors need to know?

GQG saw a challenging quarter, with heightened market volatility driven by rising geopolitical and macroeconomic risks. The group’s defensive investment positioning, favouring companies with stable earnings and strong fundamentals, helped all major strategies outperform benchmarks.

Despite the net outflows, GQG’s management emphasised strong alignment with shareholders and clients. The company remains committed to safeguarding client assets in what they described as a period of substantial downside risk.

What’s next for GQG Partners?

Looking ahead, GQG Partners will continue focusing on its defensive investment strategy to help protect against ongoing market uncertainty. The company highlighted a strong alignment of interests between management, shareholders, and clients, supporting a forward-looking, resilient approach.

Upcoming FUM updates are scheduled for 12 May, 10 June, and 13 July 2026, which will give investors further insight into trends across GQG’s suite of global strategies.

GQG Partners share price snapshot

Over the past 12 months, GQG Partners shares have declined 14%, trailing the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) which has risen 16% over the same period.

View Original Announcement

The post GQG Partners share price in focus as Q1 FUM update reveals outflows appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Pro Medicus locks in 5-year, $37m Northwestern Medicine contract renewal
• Champion Iron finalises acquisition of Norway’s Rana Gruber
• Telix Pharmaceuticals announces US$40m Regeneron radiopharma deal
• Brambles shares: Class action judgment update
• The a2 Milk Company lowers FY26 guidance amid supply chain challenges

Motley Fool contributor Laura Stewart has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Gqg Partners. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips. This article was prepared with the assistance of Large Language Model (LLM) tools for the initial summary of the company announcement. Any content assisted by AI is subject to our robust human-in-the-loop quality control framework, involving thorough review, substantial editing, and fact-checking by our experienced writers and editors holding appropriate credentials. The Motley Fool Australia stands behind the work of our editorial team and takes ultimate responsibility for the content published by The Motley Fool Australia.

It appears sentiment is cautiously optimistic for the ASX 200 as we begin the week. 

After a tough month in March, Australia’s benchmark index has shown signs of a rebound during April. 

Last week, the index rose 4.4%, its best weekly gain since October 2022.

With the tide finally turning for ASX 200 shares, here are 5 that remain significantly below fair value according to broker estimates. 

CAR Group Ltd (ASX: CAR)

The CAR Group share price fell 14% in March. However, since late March, it has slowly turned a corner. 

Investors will be hoping it has reached the bottom of this latest cycle, as investors exited their positions in CAR Group shares largely due to AI replacement fears. 

It is opening this week at $23.36 per share, which is still 24% lower than the start of 2026. 

This is significantly below fair price estimates from brokers. 

Recently, Morgan Stanley reiterated its buy recommendation and placed a $32 price target on the ASX 200 company. 

This indicates a healthy 37% upside from current levels. 

CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL)

CSL has also generated plenty of headlines recently as the ASX 200 stock appears to have been oversold. 

The biotechnology company has seen its share price fall 19% year to date and more than 40% over the last 12 months. 

It has reached a point where it is simply too cheap to ignore for many investors, and Bell Potter recently placed a $155 target on the ASX 200 stock. 

Despite its hold recommendation, this still indicates an upside of 11.5% from current levels. 

Breville Group Ltd (ASX: BRG)

Breville Group shares are currently hovering around $28.25, significantly below yearly highs. 

The consumer discretionary stock fell 16% during March and now appears to be priced at a value. 

Macquarie recently placed an outperform rating and price target of $37.10 on the ASX 200 stock. 

This indicates an upside of 31%. 

JB Hi Fi Ltd (ASX: JBH)

JB Hi Fi shares are down more than 20% year to date, which included an 11% fall during March. 

Late last month, Bell Potter retained their buy rating on this retail giant’s shares with a price target of $90.00.

From last week’s closing price of $75.21, this indicates an upside of nearly 20% for this ASX 200 stock. 

WiseTech Global Ltd (ASX: WTC)

Finally, WiseTech shares have been heavily sold off this year amidst AI concerns. 

The ASX 200 company has seen its share price tumble 45% since the start of 2026. 

However, it also appears too cheap to ignore. 

Morgan Stanley recently retained its buy rating for Wisetech with a $70 price target. 

This suggests an upside potential of 86%. 

The post 5 ASX 200 shares that could be a bargain right now appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Down 55%, are Xero shares the most overlooked bargain now?
• Better buy? CSL vs Rio Tinto shares
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Monday
• How to build a winning 10 ASX share portfolio from scratch in 2026
• The ASX 200 shares I think smart investors are buying after the tech selloff

Motley Fool contributor Aaron Bell has positions in WiseTech Global. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended CSL, Macquarie Group, and WiseTech Global. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group and WiseTech Global. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended CAR Group Ltd and CSL. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The Pro Medicus Ltd (ASX: PME) share price is in focus today after the company secured a five-year, $37 million contract renewal with Northwestern Medicine, featuring increased minimum spend and higher fees per transaction.

What did Pro Medicus report?

• Signed a 5-year, $37 million contract renewal with Northwestern Medicine
• The renewal is based on transaction volume, with potential upside
• Increased minimum commitments and higher fee per exam locked in
• Nearly $80 million in contract renewals agreed in the past month

What else do investors need to know?

The renewed agreement is with Northwestern Medicine, a leading academic health system in Chicago, serving over 200 sites. The contract not only increases the minimum transaction volume but also raises the fee paid to Pro Medicus for each exam, reflecting growth since the initial agreement.

This contract builds on Pro Medicus’s strong client retention track record. The company’s Visage 7 Viewer platform is now firmly established within Northwestern Medicine, supporting both financial and clinical outcomes.

What did Pro Medicus management say?

Chief Executive Officer Dr Sam Hupert said:

We are extremely pleased that in addition to committing to a second five-year term at an increased fee per exam, NM have also committed to an increase in their minimums reflecting the growth in their exam volumes since standardising on our platform five years ago.

What’s next for Pro Medicus?

Pro Medicus continues to invest in its core imaging platform and grow its base of recurring contract revenue. Management highlighted almost $80 million in recent renewals, supporting the company’s belief in the lasting value of its technology.

The group plans to maintain its focus on client retention and further expansion in international markets, as well as ongoing innovation within its medical imaging software suite.

Pro Medicus share price snapshot

Over the past 12 months, Pro Medicus shares have declined 40%, trailing the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) which has risen 16% over the same period.

View Original Announcement

The post Pro Medicus locks in 5-year, $37m Northwestern Medicine contract renewal appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• GQG Partners share price in focus as Q1 FUM update reveals outflows
• Champion Iron finalises acquisition of Norway’s Rana Gruber
• Telix Pharmaceuticals announces US$40m Regeneron radiopharma deal
• Brambles shares: Class action judgment update
• The a2 Milk Company lowers FY26 guidance amid supply chain challenges

Motley Fool contributor Laura Stewart has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has recommended Pro Medicus. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Pro Medicus. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips. This article was prepared with the assistance of Large Language Model (LLM) tools for the initial summary of the company announcement. Any content assisted by AI is subject to our robust human-in-the-loop quality control framework, involving thorough review, substantial editing, and fact-checking by our experienced writers and editors holding appropriate credentials. The Motley Fool Australia stands behind the work of our editorial team and takes ultimate responsibility for the content published by The Motley Fool Australia.

Xero Ltd (ASX: XRO) shares have been smashed. The high-growth tech name is down 37% so far in 2026 and a brutal 55% over the past 12 months.

That’s a dramatic fall for a company that was once a market darling.

So, is this a warning sign or a rare opportunity? Most brokers seem to think the latter.

Sticky users, scalable growth

Let’s start with the fundamentals.

Xero is a cloud-based accounting platform built for small and medium-sized businesses. It handles invoicing, payroll and financial reporting in one place, making Xero shares a mission-critical tool for its customers.

And this isn’t some niche player. Xero has built a global footprint across Australia, New Zealand, the UK, and beyond. Its subscription model delivers reliable recurring revenue, while its deep ecosystem of integrations keeps customers locked in. High switching costs. Sticky users. Scalable growth.

In short, this is still a high-quality business.

Hit by perfect storm

So why the heavy sell-off?

It’s not just Xero shares. The broader tech sector has been under pressure, with names like WiseTech Global Ltd (ASX: WTC) and Technology One Ltd (ASX: TNE) also pulling back. After a strong run in 2025, valuations looked stretched and the market was primed for a reset.

Then came a new overhang: artificial intelligence (AI).

Investors started asking whether AI could disrupt traditional software models. Could smarter, cheaper tools reduce the need for subscription platforms like Xero? That uncertainty has weighed heavily on sentiment.

Add rising interest rates — which tend to hit growth stocks hardest — and you’ve got a perfect storm.

Bargain hunters on the move

But here’s where things get interesting.

After months of selling, Xero shares are now trading well below their previous highs. And that’s starting to turn heads. Bargain hunters are circling, looking to snap up quality growth names at discounted prices.

The analysts are already leaning that way.

According to TradingView data, 13 out of 14 analysts rate Xero as a buy or strong buy. Some price targets suggest massive upside, with the most bullish view pointing to $231.35, implying potential gains of up to 225% over the next year.

Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley has just reiterated its buy rating with a $130 target. That suggests a possible 82% upside from current levels.

Competition is heating up

That’s a big disconnect between price and expectations.

Of course, risks remain. Competition in accounting software is heating up, and any slowdown in subscriber growth or margins could hit the stock. The AI disruption narrative also hasn’t gone away.

But zoom out, and the long-term story for Xero shares still stacks up.

Xero has scale. It has recurring revenue. It has sticky customers. And it operates in a massive global market that’s still shifting to the cloud.

The post Down 55%, are Xero shares the most overlooked bargain now? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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• 5 ASX 200 shares that could be a bargain right now
• How to build a winning 10 ASX share portfolio from scratch in 2026
• The ASX 200 shares I think smart investors are buying after the tech selloff
• Could these ASX stocks double by the end of 2026?
• $2,000 to invest? 3 ASX shares to consider today

Motley Fool contributor Marc Van Dinther has positions in WiseTech Global. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Technology One, WiseTech Global, and Xero. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended WiseTech Global and Xero. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Technology One. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The Champion Iron Ltd (ASX: CIA) share price is in focus today as the company announced the successful completion of its voluntary cash tender offer to acquire over 92% of Norway’s Rana Gruber, a high-purity iron ore producer. Champion paid NOK 79 per share, with the total transaction valued at around US$300 million.

What did Champion Iron report?

• Acquired 92.48% of Rana Gruber’s issued shares at NOK 79 per share in cash
• Total purchase price of approximately US$300 million
• Funded the deal with cash, a US$100 million private placement, and a new US$150 million term loan
• Expected near-term accretive impact on Champion’s revenue, EBITDA, and cash flows
• Rana Gruber produced over 1.8 million tonnes of high-purity iron ore in 2025
• Champion to proceed with compulsory acquisition of remaining shares and delisting Rana Gruber from Euronext Oslo Børs

What else do investors need to know?

The Rana Gruber deal broadens Champion Iron’s product portfolio, giving it access to new high-purity hematite and magnetite iron ore concentrate blends. Rana Gruber’s proximity to key European customers complements Champion’s Bloom Lake operations and is set to enhance sales diversification.

The expanded group will benefit from competitive all-in sustaining costs, access to renewable power, and a strong track record of cash flow generation. Champion has refinanced part of its US$400 million revolving credit facility to support the transaction, with key lenders participating.

What did Champion Iron management say?

Champion’s CEO, David Cataford, said:

The closing of this transaction marks a defining milestone for Champion. Combining our businesses strengthens our leadership as a sustainable supplier of high-purity iron ore produced with a low-carbon footprint, while preserving the culture, expertise, and pride that define both companies. Rana Gruber’s proximity to European customers complements Bloom Lake’s high-purity products and its Direct Reduction Pellet Feed project, currently in the commissioning phase. We look forward to working closely with Rana Gruber’s team to unlock value for our stakeholders and continue to positively impact our host communities.

What’s next for Champion Iron?

Champion plans to complete the compulsory acquisition of the remaining shares in Rana Gruber and delist it from the Oslo exchange. Management aims to integrate Rana Gruber, collaborate on sales strategies, and extract synergies from the combined asset base. There’s a shared focus on supporting the green steel sector, further grade improvements, and delivering value to both companies’ communities and employees.

In the near term, Champion expects the deal to boost its revenue, earnings, and operational cash flow per share while maintaining financial leverage at prior levels.

Champion Iron share price snapshot

Over the past 12 months, Champion Iron shares have risen 23%, outperforming the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) which has risen 16% over the same period.

View Original Announcement

The post Champion Iron finalises acquisition of Norway’s Rana Gruber appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• GQG Partners share price in focus as Q1 FUM update reveals outflows
• Pro Medicus locks in 5-year, $37m Northwestern Medicine contract renewal
• Telix Pharmaceuticals announces US$40m Regeneron radiopharma deal
• Brambles shares: Class action judgment update
• The a2 Milk Company lowers FY26 guidance amid supply chain challenges

Motley Fool contributor Laura Stewart has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips. This article was prepared with the assistance of Large Language Model (LLM) tools for the initial summary of the company announcement. Any content assisted by AI is subject to our robust human-in-the-loop quality control framework, involving thorough review, substantial editing, and fact-checking by our experienced writers and editors holding appropriate credentials. The Motley Fool Australia stands behind the work of our editorial team and takes ultimate responsibility for the content published by The Motley Fool Australia.

In the last month, many investors have seen significant damage to their portfolios. 

The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has weighed heavily on global equities. 

Here in Australia, the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is down approximately 2.6% since the beginning of March. 

You might be scratching your head, wondering what strategies can help weather the storm. 

A new report from VanEck has shed light on the resilience of HALO investing this past month. 

What is HALO investing?

HALO stands for Heavy Assets, Low Obsolescence. 

According to VanEck, these are companies that have cash flows tied to essential real-world demand. This is supported by long-lived infrastructure, regulated frameworks, and long-term contracts.

Applied to the Australian market, the HALO universe spans mining, energy, infrastructure, utilities, transport, telecommunications, staples and logistics. The S&P/ASX 200’s exposure to these names is heavily concentrated in a small number of mega-cap miners.

Therefore, we think, the problem for many investors is that they are not getting enough meaningful exposure to all the HALO companies via funds that track or are benchmarked to the S&P/ASX 200.

How to benefit from HALO with this ASX ETF

According to the VanEck report, an equal-weighted approach could reduce concentration and provide more meaningful exposure to these HALO companies. 

One ASX ETF that provides this meaningful exposure is the VanEck Vectors Australian Equal Weight ETF (ASX: MVW).

It utilises an equal weight approach, which provides a larger exposure to these HALO companies.

HALO companies share a common characteristic: their competitive advantages are rooted in physical assets that are difficult, expensive or impossible to replicate. 

These include pipelines, toll roads, rail networks, power stations, mine sites, ports, fibre networks and distribution centres. The assets are essential to the functioning of the economy, supported by long-duration contracts or regulatory frameworks. They generate cash flows that are relatively insulated from technological disruption.

Over the last month, this strategy and focus has resulted in a nearly 3% rise for the MVW ASX ETF, outperforming the ASX 200. 

The strategic approach

This ASX ETF uses a HALO-style approach by tilting its holdings toward companies with hard, essential assets and more stable, predictable cash flows. 

While the S&P/ASX 200 appears to have higher overall exposure to HALO names, much of that exposure is concentrated in large mining companies like BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) and Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO). These have earnings heavily tied to volatile commodity prices rather than steady, contracted revenues.

Because MVW weights companies more evenly, it reduces the dominance of these cyclical miners. Simultaneously it increases its allocation to a broader mix of infrastructure, utilities, energy networks, telecommunications, and consumer staples businesses. 

As a result, once the large miners are excluded, MVW actually has greater exposure to the types of companies that better reflect the HALO concept.

According to the report, this ASX ETF provides 1.4x overweight compared to the ASX 200 to the HALO names with contracted revenues, regulated cash flows, and essential demand characteristics.

The macro environment that supported MVW’s outperformance in March 2026 has not resolved. Oil prices remain elevated on geopolitical risk, the RBA has signalled rates will stay higher for longer and household budgets are under pressure.

In this environment, companies with contracted, inflation-linked revenues and essential demand characteristics are better positioned to protect margins than those exposed to discretionary spending, credit cycles, or technological disruption, we think.

The post Why this HALO focused ASX ETF outperformed over the last month appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Missed BHP shares’ massive run? Here’s what could happen next
• Better buy? CSL vs Rio Tinto shares
• Why I’d buy BHP and DroneShield shares next week
• Why ASX dividend investing still works for building long-term wealth
• Buying BHP shares? Here’s how AI is boosting the mining giant’s revenue

Motley Fool contributor Aaron Bell has positions in BHP Group. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended BHP Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The Telix Pharmaceuticals Ltd (ASX: TLX) share price is in focus today after the company announced a major collaboration with US-based Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, highlighted by a US$40 million upfront payment and the development of next-generation radiopharmaceuticals for cancer treatment.

What did Telix Pharmaceuticals report?

• Entered a 50/50 global cost and profit-sharing agreement with Regeneron to co-develop radiopharmaceutical therapies targeting solid tumours.
• Receives a US$40 million upfront cash payment for four initial therapeutic programs, with the option for Regeneron to expand to four more programs.
• Potential to earn up to US$2.1 billion in development and commercial milestone payments plus low double-digit royalties if Telix opts out of co-funding any program.
• Joint development of diagnostic assets, with Telix leading commercialisation and Regeneron receiving a percentage of profits.
• Collaboration leverages Telix’s expertise in radiopharmaceuticals and Regeneron’s proprietary antibody platforms.

What else do investors need to know?

This collaboration brings together Telix’s strong track record in radiopharmaceutical manufacturing and Regeneron’s experience in antibody discovery and oncology. The combined expertise could help accelerate the development of innovative treatments for cancers with significant unmet needs, such as lung cancer.

The partnership also includes plans to create radio-diagnostic tools, supporting both targeted therapies and patient selection for optimal outcomes. Telix retains some flexibility to promote products and can choose its level of involvement for each program, potentially switching between co-funding or milestone- and royalty-based compensation.

What did Telix Pharmaceuticals management say?

Managing Director and Group CEO Christian Behrenbruch said:

The collaboration with Regeneron reflects a highly complementary set of capabilities and a unique opportunity to explore what true ‘next gen’ biologics-based radiopharmaceuticals can potentially do for patients.

What’s next for Telix Pharmaceuticals?

Telix and Regeneron will begin work on the first four programs under their collaboration, initially focusing on solid tumour targets from Regeneron’s antibody pipeline. Further expansion is possible if milestones are met and both parties exercise their program options.

Telix’s ability to co-develop diagnostics and therapies with Regeneron could set the stage for new approaches in precision oncology while expanding its global reach and product portfolio. Investors will be watching for progress updates and future milestones as the partnership unfolds.

Telix Pharmaceuticals share price snapshot

Over the past 12 months, Telix shares have declined 44%, trailing the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) which has risen 16% over the same period.

View Original Announcement

The post Telix Pharmaceuticals announces US$40m Regeneron radiopharma deal appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• GQG Partners share price in focus as Q1 FUM update reveals outflows
• Pro Medicus locks in 5-year, $37m Northwestern Medicine contract renewal
• Champion Iron finalises acquisition of Norway’s Rana Gruber
• Brambles shares: Class action judgment update
• The a2 Milk Company lowers FY26 guidance amid supply chain challenges

Motley Fool contributor Laura Stewart has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Telix Pharmaceuticals. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Telix Pharmaceuticals. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips. This article was prepared with the assistance of Large Language Model (LLM) tools for the initial summary of the company announcement. Any content assisted by AI is subject to our robust human-in-the-loop quality control framework, involving thorough review, substantial editing, and fact-checking by our experienced writers and editors holding appropriate credentials. The Motley Fool Australia stands behind the work of our editorial team and takes ultimate responsibility for the content published by The Motley Fool Australia.

The Brambles Ltd (ASX: BXB) share price is in focus today after the logistics company received a judgment in its long-running shareholder class action. The Federal Court upheld some claims regarding Underlying Profit and revenue growth disclosures for a short period in late 2016 and early 2017, while dismissing others.

What did Brambles report?

• The Federal Court handed down its judgment on the class action relating to alleged misleading or deceptive conduct in 2016–2017.
• Most claims against Brambles were dismissed, with the Court only upholding certain claims for periods between 16 November 2016 and 23 January 2017.
• The Court dismissed all claims relating to medium-term FY19 targets.
• The total quantum of potential damages remains uncertain; financial impact is not yet determined.

What else do investors need to know?

Brambles is currently reviewing the extensive, 1,200-page Federal Court judgment to consider its legal and financial options. The company has insurance arrangements in place but says that final damages are unclear until further steps — including any appeals — are finalised.

Brambles has committed to keeping the market informed as it assesses both the financial risk and mitigation options. Management emphasised their ongoing disclosure obligations.

What’s next for Brambles?

Brambles stated it is assessing potential grounds for appeal, as well as the process for quantifying any damages. Until appeals or other legal proceedings conclude, the financial impact — if any — remains uncertain.

Investors can expect further updates as Brambles reviews the judgment and finalises its response. The company is also continuing to focus on its core logistics operations across global markets.

Brambles share price snapshot

Over the past 12 months, Brambles shares have risen 12%, trailing the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) which has risen 16% over the same period.

View Original Announcement

The post Brambles shares: Class action judgment update appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• GQG Partners share price in focus as Q1 FUM update reveals outflows
• Pro Medicus locks in 5-year, $37m Northwestern Medicine contract renewal
• Champion Iron finalises acquisition of Norway’s Rana Gruber
• Telix Pharmaceuticals announces US$40m Regeneron radiopharma deal
• The a2 Milk Company lowers FY26 guidance amid supply chain challenges

Motley Fool contributor Laura Stewart has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips. This article was prepared with the assistance of Large Language Model (LLM) tools for the initial summary of the company announcement. Any content assisted by AI is subject to our robust human-in-the-loop quality control framework, involving thorough review, substantial editing, and fact-checking by our experienced writers and editors holding appropriate credentials. The Motley Fool Australia stands behind the work of our editorial team and takes ultimate responsibility for the content published by The Motley Fool Australia.

BHP shares (ASX: BHP) have been on a wild ride. The mining giant steamed to a 52-week high of $59.39 in early March, only to tumble to roughly $47 not long after. But the story didn’t end there.

Over the past three weeks, BHP shares have clawed its way back to $53.98 at the time of writing, capping off a remarkable 52% gain over the past 12 months.

So, has the easy money already been made? Or is there still an opportunity for investors willing to dig deeper?

Let’s start with the positives — and there are plenty.

Exposure to copper

BHP remains one of the world’s lowest-cost producers. That’s a huge advantage in a sector where margins can swing wildly. When commodity prices fall, high-cost operators feel the squeeze first. BHP, by contrast, has the scale and efficiency to stay profitable through the cycle.

Then there’s its exposure to future-facing commodities. Copper, in particular, stands out. As electrification accelerates and the global energy transition gathers pace, demand for copper is expected to surge. The mining giant is well positioned to benefit from that structural tailwind.

Layer on a strong balance sheet and reliable cash generation, and it’s clear why BHP continues to appeal to long-term investors. This is a business built to endure — and potentially thrive — through volatility.

Highly reliant on China

But let’s not ignore the risks.

BHP is deeply cyclical. Its fortunes are closely tied to global growth and especially to China. If economic activity slows or Chinese demand weakens, commodity prices could slide further. That would put pressure on earnings and, by extension, the BHP share price.

There are also external pressures to watch. Geopolitical tensions, fluctuating energy costs, and rising labour expenses all have the potential to chip away at margins.

What do the experts think?

According to TradingView data, sentiment is mixed but still leans cautiously positive. Eleven analysts currently rate BHP shares as a hold, while seven have buy or strong buy recommendations. Two analysts sit on the bearish side with sell ratings.

The average 12-month price target comes in at $52.44, slightly below current levels. That implies a modest 2.9% downside. That suggests the market sees limited short-term upside after the recent rebound.

However, the bulls aren’t backing down. The most optimistic forecast tips BHP shares could climb to $65.82, representing a potential gain of around 22% from here.

Meanwhile, analysts at Morgans round out the picture with a hold rating of their own. They remain positive on the company’s long-term outlook but aren’t quite convinced it’s a screaming buy right now.

BHP is a diversified mining company producing iron ore, copper, nickel, metallurgical coal and potash. First half revenue in fiscal year 2026 grew 11 per cent on the prior corresponding period and profit after tax was up 28 per cent. The fully franked interim dividend of US73 cents a share was up 46 per cent and ahead of consensus. BHP’s fundamentals position it to play a recovery in China’s subdued growth. Capital expenditure cycles and copper growth provide a compelling reason to retain BHP as a core position in portfolios.

Foolish Takeaway

BHP shares may have pulled back from their highs, but the core investment case remains intact. For investors willing to ride out the commodity cycle, this could be a dip worth watching closely, even if patience is required.

The post Missed BHP shares’ massive run? Here’s what could happen next appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Why this HALO focused ASX ETF outperformed over the last month
• Why I’d buy BHP and DroneShield shares next week
• Why ASX dividend investing still works for building long-term wealth
• Buying BHP shares? Here’s how AI is boosting the mining giant’s revenue
• Monadelphous wins $145m of new and renewed resources sector contracts

Motley Fool contributor Marc Van Dinther has positions in BHP Group. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended BHP Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The ASX dividend stock Premier Investments Ltd (ASX: PMV) has fallen a painful 43% from its 52-week high in September 2025, as the chart below shows. This could be a great time to invest, in my view.

To put it mildly, that’s not ideal for shareholders. But, investing is a long-term endeavour and I think this is a great time to buy (more) Premier Investments shares.

‘Premier Investments’ is not exactly a household name, but many Australians have probably heard of one or more of its key businesses/assets.

It owns the pyjamas business Peter Alexander, the children’s accessories business Smiggle, and a substantial stake in the coffee machine company Breville Group Ltd (ASX: BRG).

Why it’s a good ASX dividend stock

Between 2011 and 2024, the business had a great track record of regularly increasing the payout, aside from the painful year of 2020, which impacted many ASX dividend stocks.

Premier Investments is a different business now, after divesting a number of its apparel businesses (like Just Jeans and Jay Jays) to Myer Holdings Ltd (ASX: MYR).

I think Premier Investments is a higher-quality company with more growth potential because Peter Alexander and Breville are a larger part of the Premier Investments pie.

In this new era for the business, I think the outlook is very positive for long-term earnings growth and good dividends.

The business paid an interim dividend of 45 cents per share in the FY26 half-year result. The projection on CMC Invest suggests that the business could pay an annual dividend per share of 76 cents.

At the time of writing, that translates into a potential grossed-up dividend yield of 8.3%, including franking credits. Plus, the projections on CMC Invest suggest the business could slightly increase its payout in FY27 and FY28 as well.

Why this is a good time to invest

The most obvious answer to why to invest now in the ASX dividend stock is because the Premier Investments share price is down heavily (more than 40%) – it’s good to be greedy when the market is fearful, after all.

Discretionary retail can be a volatile sector, so investing during the difficult times can be a smart play because of how much better value we can get.

Secondly, it’s good to focus on growing businesses. Peter Alexander and Breville are consistently growing revenue, while expanding their geographic reach. Peter Alexander added four new stores in the first half of FY26, while HY26 sales increased 4.9% year-over-year.

I’m also hopeful that the business can grow pleasingly in the UK (following the launch of a few stores in London), while also exploring “international wholesale opportunities with global best-in-class wholesale partners”.

I think Peter Alexander is very capable of growing its profit margins in the coming years thanks to strengthening scale benefits. Smiggle is performing weakly, but I’d rather invest now rather than when/if it returns to solid growth.

Using the earnings forecast on CMC Invest, the Premier Investment share price is valued at less than 14x FY26’s estimated earnings.

The post 1 ASX dividend stock down 43% I’d buy right now appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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• Why this ASX 200 share could be dirt cheap with a 7% dividend yield
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Monday

Motley Fool contributor Tristan Harrison has positions in Breville Group. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Myer and Premier Investments. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.