Tag: Stock pick

S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) shares are likely to open lower today after a dramatic fall on Wall Street on Friday.

Stronger-than-expected US jobs data sparked fears of higher inflation and interest rates for the world’s biggest economy.

The Nasdaq Composite Index (NASDAQ: .IXIC) was smashed, falling 1,121 points or 4.2%.

That was the Nasdaq’s biggest daily fall in more than 12 months.

Investment research company, Hedgeye, said it was also the largest daily point decline in Nasdaq’s history, according to news.com.au.

Higher interest rates are a particular headwind for tech companies amid massive artificial intelligence (AI) capex spending.

The S&P 500 Index (SP: .INX) also fell heavily, down 200 points or 2.64%.

Meanwhile, here are three ASX 200 shares with new ratings today.

Megaport Ltd (ASX: MP1)

The Megaport share price rose 19% last week and set a 52-week high of $21.16 on Friday.

The gain followed news of four new AI infrastructure contracts worth $458.9 million.

To fund new capex required for the contracts, Megaport launched a $827.3 million entitlement offer.

UBS retained its buy rating and lifted its 12-month price target on Megaport shares from $16.70 to $24.20.

This implies a potential upside of 31% from Friday’s $18.48 close.

BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP)

The BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) share price rose to a new record of $65.04 last Wednesday.

Then on Thursday and Friday, ASX 200 iron ore shares fell sharply on news of a major production increase at Simandou.

The massive Simandou project in Africa is the world’s largest undeveloped iron ore deposit.

The mine began operations in November, and its output is expected to change global demand/supply dynamics.

Last week, the iron ore price fell 6.3% to US$102 per tonne, a 7-week low.

UBS reiterated its hold rating on BHP shares with a $55.86 price target on Friday.

This suggests a 9% downside from Friday’s $61.24 close.

Bendigo and Adelaide Bank Ltd (ASX: BEN)

The Bendigo and Adelaide Bank share price closed at $10.12, down 1.6% on Friday.

Morgan Stanley tips a 5% earnings downgrade for ASX 200 bank shares due to Labor’s proposed capital gains tax (CGT) changes.

The broker says the changes could lead to softer mortgage growth and narrower margins in FY27.

Australia’s banks are highly exposed to residential housing, which is already softening due to higher interest rates.

Morgan Stanley has just reiterated its sell rating on Bendigo and Adelaide Bank shares.

The broker reduced its 12-month share price target from $10.10 to $9.80.

This implies a potential 3% downside from here.

The post Buy, hold, sell: Megaport, Bendigo Bank, BHP shares appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• 3 top ASX mining shares for investors right now
• How to start investing in ASX shares with just $500
• BHP, CBA, and Westpac shares are sells this week: experts
• 7 ASX shares set to soar 30% to 90% in 12 months: experts
• ASX 200 tech stocks led the market with big share price gains last week

Motley Fool contributor Bronwyn Allen has positions in BHP Group. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Megaport. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Bendigo And Adelaide Bank. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended BHP Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

I think it can be just as important to know which ASX 200 shares to avoid as it is to know which ones to own when you are aiming to outperform the market.

That’s because if you own shares that are likely to fall in value, your portfolio returns could be dragged down along with them.

With that in mind, here are three ASX 200 shares that analysts have named as sells this week, courtesy of The Bull. Here’s what they are bearish on:

BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP)

The team at Alto Capital has named BHP shares as a sell this week. While it is positive on the mining giant’s exposure to copper, it believes this is built into its share price.

As a result, Alto Capital thinks the risk-reward balance supports taking some profits off the table. It explains:

BHP is Australia’s largest diversified mining company, with significant exposure to iron ore, copper and metallurgical coal. The company delivered a strong first half result in fiscal year 2026, reporting underlying EBITDA of $US15.5 billion, up 25 per cent on the prior corresponding period. A major milestone was copper contributing 51 per cent of group EBITDA for the first time.

While the long term outlook for copper remains attractive, investor enthusiasm surrounding electrification and AI-related demand has contributed to a strong share price performance. In our view, the strong operational result, elevated expectations and risk-reward balance support taking some profits.

Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA)

Over at Morgans, its analysts have named CBA shares as a sell this week.

While the broker acknowledges that CBA is undoubtedly Australia’s highest quality retail bank, it feels its shares are fully valued and leave little room for error. This comes at a time when interest rates could be higher for longer, potentially putting pressure on bad debts. It said:

CBA is Australia’s highest quality retail bank, with a leading market position, strong digital platform and reliable earnings generation. However, quality alone doesn’t justify the recent valuation, which stands at a significant premium to domestic and global banking peers. Credit quality remains sound, but should be monitored in a higher-for-longer interest rate environment. The market has long rewarded CBA with a premium multiple. But at recent levels, the shares appear to price in a near perfect outcome with little room for disappointment.

Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC)

Finally, MPC Markets thinks that Westpac shares are a sell.

It believes Australia’s oldest bank’s shares have a stretched valuation, which poses meaningful downside risk for investors. It said:

Westpac has a strong retail franchise, but the valuation appears stretched. Consensus targets imply downside from current levels. The bank has made progress on simplifying its operations and cutting costs, but, in our view, earnings growth is still expected to lag the broader Australian market. The bank is up against competitive pressures and the risk of softer credit conditions. Investors may want to consider taking a profit at these levels.

The post BHP, CBA, and Westpac shares are sells this week: experts appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• 3 top ASX mining shares for investors right now
• How to start investing in ASX shares with just $500
• Buy, hold, sell: Megaport, Bendigo Bank, BHP shares
• Which ASX bank stock is the best buy right now?
• Would Warren Buffett buy BHP shares?

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended BHP Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

S&P Dow Jones Indices has announced its latest changes in the S&P/ASX Indices following the results of the June quarterly review.

These changes will be effective prior to the open of trading on 22 June.

Unfortunately for a number of ASX 200 shares, they have been kicked out of the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO).

This could put downward pressure on their shares, as index funds will be forced to sell them to mirror the changes. In addition, some fund managers have strict investment mandates. This could include only being able to buy shares in the ASX 200 index.

Which ASX 200 shares have been kicked out of the index? S&P Dow Jones Indices has named five shares that will exit later this month. They are as follows:

Guzman Y Gomez Ltd (ASX: GYG)

This Mexican-focused quick service restaurant operator’s shares are leaving the index in June. Over the past 12 months, Guzman Y Gomez’s shares have lost 35% of their value. This is despite a recent rebound amid news that the company is closing its loss-making US operations.

IDP Education Ltd (ASX: IEL)

After losing more than 90% of their value over the past five years, this struggling language testing and student placement company’s shares are leaving the ASX 200 index. IDP Education has been battling unfavourable student visa changes and general industry weakness.

Siteminder Ltd (ASX: SDR)

The Siteminder share price is down 37% since the start of the year, dragging its market capitalisation down to $1.1 billion. Concerns over the threat of AI disruption has weighed heavily on the hotel technology platform provider’s shares.

Temple & Webster Group Ltd (ASX: TPW)

Another ASX 200 share heading out of the index later this month is online furniture retailer Temple & Webster. Its shares are down 80% since this time last year amid concerns over consumer spending, housing market weakness, and the potential for AI disruption.

Web Travel Group Ltd (ASX: WEB)

Finally, Web Travel shares have halved in value over the past 12 months. The Web Beds owner’s performance has been relatively positive, but concerns over the Middle East conflict and its impact on travel markets has weighed on investor sentiment.

The post These shares are being dumped from the ASX 200 index appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Here are the 10 most shorted ASX shares
• ASX 200 tech stocks led the market with big share price gains last week
• These ASX 200 shares could rise around 50% to 60%
• How much could investors profit off these undervalued ASX 200 shares with a $10,000 investment?
• 2 ASX 200 shares I’d buy and 1 I’d sell this month

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has positions in Temple & Webster Group and Web Travel Group Limited. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended SiteMinder and Temple & Webster Group. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended SiteMinder. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Temple & Webster Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) shares are in the red for 2026, down 1.2% so far.

Experts say some ASX shares are likely to defy current market trends.

Let’s take a look at seven shares with buy ratings and ambitious 12-month price targets from the professionals.

Champion Iron Ltd (ASX: CIA)

The Champion Iron share price closed at $4.25 on Friday.

The ASX 200 iron ore small-cap share has lost 31% of its valuation in 2026.

RBC Capital has confidence this stock can turn it around.

The broker has a buy rating and an $8.07 price target, suggesting 90% growth over the next 12 months.

Brambles Ltd (ASX: BXB)

The Brambles share price closed last week at $16.92.

This ASX 200 industrial share has tumbled 26% in 2026 so far.

RBC Capital has hope for Brambles shares.

The broker reiterates its buy rating with a $27 price target.

This indicates a potential near-60% upside ahead.

Iperionx Ltd (ASX: IPX)

The Iperion share price finished Friday’s session at $5.43.

This ASX materials share is down 6.2% in the calendar year to date (YTD).

Bell Potter maintains its buy rating with an $8.25 price target.

This implies a potential 52% upside ahead.

Megaport Ltd (ASX: MP1)

The Megaport share price closed last week at $18.48 apiece.

This ASX 200 tech share is up 50% so far in 2026.

Megaport shares ripped 19% last week and set a 52-week high of $21.16 on Friday.

The share price surge followed news of four new AI infrastructure contracts worth $458.9 million.

To fund the capex requirements for the new work, Megaport launched a fully underwritten $827.3 million entitlement offer.

Macquarie retains its buy rating and lifted its 12-month target from $26.30 to $27.80.

This implies potential capital gains of 50% ahead.

Qantas Airways Ltd (ASX: QAN)

The Qantas share price finished last week at $9.19.

The ASX 200 airline share has dropped 12.4% YTD.

Goldman Sachs renewed its buy rating on Qantas with a $12.25 share price target.

This implies a potential 33% increase over the next 12 months.

Pro Medicus Ltd (ASX: PME) 

The Pro Medicus share price closed at $165.64 last week.

Macquarie maintains its buy rating on this ASX 200 healthcare share with a $221 target.

This suggests a potential 33% upside ahead.

Newmont Corporation CDI (ASX: NEM)

The Newmont share price finished at $148.76 on Friday.

This ASX 200 gold share has dipped 1.6% in 2026 while the gold price has lifted 3.3%.

UBS has a buy rating on Newmont shares with a 12-month target of $195.

This suggests a possible 31% upside ahead.

The post 7 ASX shares set to soar 30% to 90% in 12 months: experts appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Tuesday
• ASX 200 tech stocks led the market with big share price gains last week
• Top brokers name 3 ASX shares to buy next week
• Brokers name 3 ASX shares to buy right now
• ASX 200 iron ore shares down 5%: Should you buy the dip?

Motley Fool contributor Bronwyn Allen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Goldman Sachs Group, Macquarie Group, and Megaport. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has recommended Pro Medicus. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Pro Medicus. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Share price weakness is not always a bad thing for income investors.

When dividend shares fall, their yields can become more attractive, provided the underlying earnings and distributions remain sustainable.

With that in mind, here are three ASX dividend shares that have been sold down heavily and could be top value picks for Aussie income investors:

Charter Hall Long WALE REIT (ASX: CLW)

The first ASX dividend share to look at is Charter Hall Long WALE REIT.

This property trust has fallen approximately 25% from its high.

The Charter Hall Long WALE REIT owns a diversified portfolio of properties leased to high-quality tenants across sectors including office, industrial, logistics, and social infrastructure. Its focus on long leases gives it greater visibility over future rental income than many property names.

That is important in an uncertain market. Investors have been cautious on real estate because of higher interest rates, funding costs, and valuation pressure. But long-dated leases can help smooth the income profile while conditions remain unsettled.

Charter Hall Long WALE REIT is forecast to offer a distribution yield of approximately 7.6% in FY 2027.

Harvey Norman Holdings Ltd (ASX: HVN)

Another ASX dividend share that could be worth a look after recent weakness is Harvey Norman.

The retail giant’s shares have fallen approximately 36% in 2026, leaving them well below recent levels.

Harvey Norman is exposed to household spending through furniture, electronics, appliances, bedding, and other home-related categories. That has not been an easy place to be while consumers have been dealing with cost-of-living pressures and higher interest rates.

But this is a business that has been through many retail cycles before. Its brand remains widely recognised, and its franchise model gives it a different structure from many traditional retailers. The company also owns a substantial property portfolio.

Harvey Norman is forecast to offer a fully franked dividend yield of approximately 7% in FY 2027.

Universal Store Holdings Ltd (ASX: UNI)

A third ASX dividend share for income investors to consider is Universal Store.

The youth fashion retailer is down approximately 35% from its 52-week high, amid broad weakness  in discretionary retail shares.

Universal Store operates brands including Universal Store, Perfect Stranger, and Thrills. It has a clear customer focus, a growing store network, and an online channel that supports its reach with younger shoppers.

Fashion retail can be volatile. Trends change quickly, and consumer confidence can have a big impact on spending. But Universal Store has shown it can build strong brands and connect with its target market.

If trading conditions improve, the company could be well-placed to continue growing its dividend over the remainder of the decade.

Universal Store is forecast to offer a fully franked dividend yield of approximately 7.3% in FY 2027.

The post Down 25%: 3 ASX dividend shares to buy with 7% yield appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• 6 ASX 200 shares downgraded by analysts this week
• 2 ASX income shares I’d buy outside Westpac and the big four banks
• 5 ASX dividend shares to buy with $5,000 this month
• Why Catapult Sports, Harvey Norman, Inghams, and Opthea shares are sinking today
• Why’s the ASX 200 falling today despite another tech rally?

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has positions in Universal Store. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Harvey Norman. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Universal Store. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Share prices are always changing, giving investors an opportunity to buy ASX shares with a great outlook.

When one analyst thinks a business is a buy, that’s interesting, but when numerous experts think a stock is a buy, that suggests the business is a compelling opportunity.

So, let’s look at two highly rated companies.

Hub24 Ltd (ASX: HUB)

Hub24 has a number of businesses, including the Hub24 platform, Class, NowInfinity and myprosperity.

It offers advisers and their clients a comprehensive range of investment options, including managed product solutions, transaction and reporting functionality. Class provides wealth accounting software, particularly for SMSFs, and myprosperity is a client portal for accountants and financial advisers.

The company is still growing at a very good pace. In the three months to 31 March 2026, it reported platform net inflows of $4 billion (up 9% excluding large migrations) and total funds under administration (FUA) reached $151.7 billion (up 22% year over year).

The ASX share boasted that its platform ranked first for quarterly and annual net inflows, so it’s a good sign that the business will stay ahead of its rivals and even increase the gap.

That quarterly update saw the business sign 37 new licensee agreements, with the total number of advisers using the platform increasing by 272 to 5,549 (up 11% year over year).

According to CMC Invest, there have been 11 ratings on the business over the last three months, with 8 buy ratings and 3 hold ratings. The average price target of those 11 ratings suggests the business could rise by more than 20% in the year ahead.

Metcash Ltd (ASX: MTS)

Metcash is a fairly diversified business. It supplies IGA supermarkets across Australia, as well as a number of independent liquor chains.

The company also has a business-to-business (B2B) division that supplies customers such as hotels, cafes, restaurants, and so on.

On top of that, Metcash has a hardware and tools segment that includes Mitre 10, Home Hardware, Total Tools and other, smaller businesses.

The most recent update from the business was guidance for the FY26 result, which is expected to be released on 22 June 2026.

The ASX share expects to report underlying net profit after tax (NPAT) of between $268 million and $270 million, with group revenue growth of 0.7% (or 3.8% growth excluding tobacco).

It noted a resilient performance in food and liquor, with the liquor operating profit (EBIT) margin improving in the second half of FY26. It also noted improved sales momentum in hardware and tools in the second half, while structural cost actions are underway.

According to CMC Invest, there have been eight ratings on the business in the last three months, with five buy ratings, two hold ratings and one sell rating. The average price target implies a possible rise of more than 10%.

The post 2 ASX shares highly recommended to buy: Experts appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Why Australia’s $4 trillion superannuation pool is creating a once-in-a-generation opportunity for these ASX stocks
• Buy, hold, sell: Kingsgate, Metcash, Woodside shares
• Why I think this could be one of the best ASX 200 growth shares to buy
• 3 ASX shares that could build serious wealth for shareholders
• With a 6% dividend yield, should I buy Metcash shares today?

Motley Fool contributor Tristan Harrison has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Hub24. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Hub24. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

It has been a down year across the board for many ASX bank shares. 

Bank stocks make up a core part of many investors’ portfolios. This means that when they fall, they can drag down your portfolio’s overall performance. 

Not only do the big four dominate market share, but they are also targeted for relatively stable earnings and dividends.

Let’s look at how they are performing this year, and the lesser-known bank stock earning positive ratings from experts. 

Big four bank shares struggle

Since the start of 2026, the big four bank shares have underperformed the broader ASX 200. 

Year to date: 

• Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) is essentially flat with the start of the year
• National Australia Bank (ASX: NAB) is down nearly 14%
• Westpac Banking Corporation (ASX: WBC) is down over 10%
• Anz Group (ASX: ANZ) shares have fallen 6%. 

Why are bank stocks down?

ASX bank stocks have weakened in 2026 as investors grapple with the implications of a higher interest rate environment. 

While rising rates can support bank margins, they also increase borrowing costs for households and businesses, raising concerns about slower loan growth and a potential increase in bad debts.

Investors are increasingly concerned about the risk that mortgage stress could rise if rates remain elevated for an extended period, particularly given Australia’s high household debt levels. 

At the same time, bank valuations had reached historically rich levels following a strong run-up in share prices in 2025, leaving little room for disappointment. 

As a result, even solid earnings results have failed to prevent profit-taking across the sector, sending ASX bank shares lower.

What are brokers saying?

There is little optimism from brokers surrounding the big four ASX bank stocks. 

CBA shares recently were listed as a hold by Red Leaf Securities, while NAB shares were listed as a sell by the team at Catapult Wealth. 

Elsewhere, Morgan Stanley has a sell rating on CBA, NAB and Westpac. 

The only glimmer of upside appears to be ANZ. 

UBS recently upgraded ANZ shares to a hold rating with a $36.50 price target.

This indicates a modest 7% upside from current levels. 

The surprising option emerging as a buy

While the big four bank stocks appear to have little upside, there is plenty of optimism about smaller rival bank stock Judo Capital (ASX: JDO). 

Its share price is down 20% year to date, however brokers are tipping a rebound for this smaller bank. 

The team at Morgans recently retained their buy rating on this small business lender’s shares with an improved price target of $2.15.

From current levels, this indicates an upside of 50%. 

Looking ahead, the broker believes Judo Capital will deliver strong earnings growth over FY 2026 – FY 2028.

The post Which ASX bank stock is the best buy right now? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Broker says this ASX 200 bank stock could rise almost 70%
• Down 25%: Should I invest $5,000 into NAB shares?
• Is the CBA share price a buy in June?
• Why CBA, PLS, Resolute Mining, and Silver Mines shares are dropping today
• 3 ASX shares Warren Buffett would probably love right now

Motley Fool contributor Aaron Bell has positions in National Australia Bank. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

SpaceX is expected to be one of the biggest share market stories of the month and possibly even the decade.

The space technology giant is due to IPO in the United States with a valuation of US$1.75 trillion later this week. That is an enormous number, particularly when compared with its consolidated revenue of US$18.7 billion in 2025.

There is no denying SpaceX’s long-term potential. It has world-class technology, a powerful brand, and exposure to major opportunities across rockets, satellites, AI, defence, and communications.

But hype can be dangerous. At that valuation, investors may be paying a very high price for future growth.

A safer approach could be to look closer to home. The ASX has a number of high-quality technology stocks with proven business models, strong customer demand, and long runways for growth.

Here are two that could be worth considering right now:

Life360 Inc (ASX: 360)

The first ASX tech stock to look at is Life360.

This location technology company has built a family safety platform that is used by around 100 million people across the world. Its app helps families stay connected through location sharing, driving safety features, crash detection, emergency support, and other services.

It provides peace of mind for families, which can make the product highly engaging and difficult to replace once it becomes part of daily life.

The company also has several ways to grow revenue. Subscriptions remain central, but advertising, connected devices, and new services could all help increase monetisation over time.

Privacy and trust will always be critical for a platform built around location data. But if Life360 keeps expanding carefully, it could become one of the ASX’s best consumer technology businesses.

Xero Ltd (ASX: XRO)

A final ASX tech stock to consider instead of SpaceX is Xero.

Over the past decade, it has become a key financial platform for small businesses, accountants, and bookkeepers. Xero’s software helps manage invoicing, payroll, bank feeds, payments, reporting, and compliance.

What arguably makes Xero powerful is the amount of work it can remove from small business owners. Admin is time-consuming, and tools that save time while improving visibility over cash flow can become very valuable.

The company’s opportunity is to keep expanding from accounting software into a broader small business financial platform. That could include deeper payments, insights, automation, and adviser tools.

Xero still needs to execute well in large international markets, and technology valuations can move sharply. But compared with paying a blockbuster valuation for SpaceX shares, this ASX tech stock offers a more grounded way to invest in long-term software growth.

The post Forget SpaceX shares and buy these ASX tech stocks appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• ASX 200 tech stocks led the market with big share price gains last week
• Are Wesfarmers, Xero and this ASX 200 share buys in June?
• 3 amazing ASX growth shares to buy with $15,000
• 3 ASX 200 shares that could be too good to ignore in June
• 3 ASX 200 tech shares to buy now: expert

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has positions in Life360 and Xero. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Life360 and Xero. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Life360 and Xero. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

On Friday, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) ended the week with a decline. The benchmark index fell 0.7% to 8,625.1 points.

Will the market be able to bounce back from this on Tuesday after returning from the public holiday? Here are five things to watch:

ASX 200 to sink

The Australian share market looks set to sink on Tuesday after a selloff on Wall Street on Friday and a mixed session on Monday. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open the day 86 points or 1% lower. In the United States, the Dow Jones fell 0.15%, but the S&P 500 climbed 0.3% and the Nasdaq pushed 0.85% higher.

Oil prices rise

ASX 200 energy shares Beach Energy Ltd (ASX: BPT) and Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) could have a good session after oil prices rose overnight. According to Bloomberg, the WTI crude oil price is up 0.75% to US$91.22 a barrel and the Brent crude oil price is up 1.2% to US$94.20 a barrel. This was driven by an escalation in tensions in the Middle East.

REA shares downgraded

REA Group Ltd (ASX: REA) shares will be in focus today after the team at Bell Potter put out a bearish broker note. According to the note, the broker has downgraded the property listings company’s shares all the way from a buy rating to a sell rating with a heavily reduced price target of $137.00 (from $217.00). It said: ” We downgrade our recommendation to Sell (prev. Buy). REA currently trades around 28x FY27e P/E, which is a level it has historically only traded at during EPS declines; VA consensus currently anticipates 14% EPS growth in FY27 (BPe: -2%). REA also appears expensive against other ASX classifieds on a FCF growth basis at 1.7x EV/FCFg in FY27e.”

Gold price softens

ASX 200 gold shares Newmont Corporation (ASX: NEM) and Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) could have a subdued session after the gold price softened overnight. According to CNBC, the gold futures price is down 0.3% to US$4,352.6 an ounce. Rising oil prices, inflation, and rate hike concerns have weighed on the precious metal.

Buy Eagers shares

Eagers Automotive Ltd (ASX: APE) shares have been given the thumbs up by the team at Bell Potter. This morning, the broker has retained its buy rating with a slightly trimmed price target of $28.00 (from $28.75). It said: “In our view the stock looks reasonable value trading on PE ratios of c.20x and 17x in 2026 and 2027 where the latter is the first full year of the CanadaOne investment (so is the more relevant in our view). We also see the recent trading update at the AGM as effectively “cleansing” the market as the H1 result has now been largely flagged – so there should be no surprises.”

The post 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Tuesday appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• ASX 200 tech stocks led the market with big share price gains last week
• Top brokers name 3 ASX shares to buy next week
• The average Australian superannuation balance: 50 vs 60 years old
• 3 ASX 200 mining shares to buy: experts
• Why is the ASX 200 falling when so many stocks are rising?

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has positions in REA Group. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Eagers Automotive Ltd. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Judo Capital Holdings Ltd (ASX: JDO) shares are having a tough year.

Since the start of 2026, the ASX 200 bank stock has lost 20% of its value.

Could this be a buying opportunity? According to analysts at Ord Minnett, the answer is yes.

What is the broker saying about this ASX 200 bank stock?

Ord Minnett has been looking closely at Judo after the specialist SME lender completed a major note securitisation issue.

The broker highlights that Judo raised $750 million through the issue, which was upsized from $500 million due to strong demand.

This was backed by the ASX 200 bank stock’s loans and attracted support from a range of investors, including local and offshore investors, superannuation funds, fixed-income and credit funds, and bank balance-sheet buyers. Ord Minnett said:

Judo Capital (JDO) has solidified its balance sheet via a $750 million note securitisation issue (upsized from $500 million due to strong demand) backed by its loans, sending shares in the lender to small- to medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) up more than 12% on the day.

Pleasingly, the issue was priced at 171 basis points over the one-month bank-bill swap rate. This compares favourably to the 273 basis points margin achieved in Judo’s first transaction in September 2023.

Balance sheet concerns eased

One of the key reasons Ord Minnett is positive on the transaction is that it reduces concerns about a potential equity raising.

The broker estimates the securitisation lifts Judo’s pro forma common equity tier-one capital ratio to 13.2% at 31 March, compared with its reported CET1 ratio of 12.6%.

It also forecasts a CET1 ratio of 12.6% at 30 June, which it believes is comfortably above the approximate 12% level that investors would view as acceptable.

In addition, Ord Minnett said the strong demand for the issue suggests Judo has opened up a new capital-efficient funding avenue.

While this funding is more expensive than wholesale funding, the broker believes the benefits of releasing regulatory capital and passing credit risk to third-party investors should support higher return on equity over time.

Buy rating retained

According to the note, Ord Minnett has retained its buy rating and $2.40 price target on Judo.

Based on the ASX 200 bank stock’s last close price of $1.43, this implies potential upside of almost 70% over the next 12 months.

The broker concludes:

Judo is highly exposed to broader macroeconomic conditions and its performance will be more volatile than most of its larger rivals. It is thus strongly leveraged to any Middle East war resolution and a return to calmer energy markets that had potentially threatened the asset quality of its SME loan book.

We forecast a compound annual growth rate of (CAGR) for EPS of 40% and view Judo as an appealing investment option on a medium-term outlook. This leads Ord Minnett to maintain its target price of $2.40 on Judo and reiterate our Buy recommendation.

The post Broker says this ASX 200 bank stock could rise almost 70% appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Buy, hold, sell: ASX, Endeavour, and Judo Capital shares
• This ASX bank stock has rebounded 7% from a 2-year low, and is tipped to climb up to 76% higher
• Leading brokers name 3 ASX shares to buy today
• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today
• 9 ASX 200 shares with renewed buy ratings this week

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.