Why this broker thinks the A2 Milk (ASX:A2M) share price has further to fall

ASX shares downgrade A young woman with tattoos puts both thumbs down and scrunches her face with the bad news.

The A2 Milk Company Ltd (ASX: A2M) share price is out of form again on Monday.

In afternoon trade, the embattled infant formula company’s shares are down 2% to $5.91.

This means A2 Milk’s shares are now down over 49% since the start of the year.

Has the A2 Milk share price found a bottom yet?

Unfortunately for shareholders, one leading broker doesn’t appear to believe the A2 Milk share price has found its bottom just yet.

A note out of Credit Suisse from last week reveals that its analysts have retained their underperform rating and $5.50 price target on the company’s shares.

Based on the current A2 Milk share price, this implies potential downside of 7% over the next 12 months.

What did the broker say?

According to the note, the broker highlights that infant formula prices stabilised in China in September.

It also notes that marketing activity is increasing and chat groups have been formed with daigou shoppers ahead of the major Singles Day retail sales event next month.

However, this isn’t enough for the broker to change its rating. It has previously voiced its concerns over China’s slowing birth rate and A2 Milk’s loss of market share in stage 1 infant formula. Credit Suisse fears that the latter could act as a drag on its Stage 2 and Stage 3 product sales as this cohort ages.

Is anyone positive?

One broker that remains positive on the A2 Milk share price is Citi. It recently put a buy rating and $7.20 price target on the company’s shares.

However, it has warned that there could be more bad news coming at its investor event later this month. This could include lower than expected margins.

The only potential benefit here is that that broker suspects that any weakness in A2 Milk’s shares could be greeted with a takeover offer.

Time will tell which broker makes the right call.

The post Why this broker thinks the A2 Milk (ASX:A2M) share price has further to fall appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended A2 Milk. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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