Is the ANZ share price an ASX banking buy for the next 12 months?

A woman looks questioning as she puts a coin into a piggy bank.A woman looks questioning as she puts a coin into a piggy bank.

The Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Ltd (ASX: ANZ) share price has been a bit of a disappointing performer in recent months and years. ANZ shares are currently going for $22.83 each, up 0.55% for the day so far this Friday.

But that still leaves the ANZ share price down a painful 18% over 2022 thus far. ANZ shares have also lost 17% over the past 12 months, and remain down by 22% over the past five years.

This performance has notably lagged some of ANZ’s big four banking peers. Take the largest ASX bank share, Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA). CBA shares have only lost 1.6% this year to date. This ASX bank is also up almost 25% over the past five years.

That’s obviously a fairly disappointing comparison for ANZ, which has gone backwards by almost as much as CBA has risen.

So could this mean ANZ shares are primed for a comeback? Could today be a chance to jump into ANZ shares before a dramatic recovery over the coming 12 months?

Well, that is indeed the view of one ASX broker. As my Fool colleague James reported last week, broker Citi has come out with a fresh analysis of ANZ following its recently announced merger with the banking division of Suncorp Group Ltd (ASX: SUN).

Is the ANZ share price an ASX 200 banking buy today?

Citi currently rates the ANZ share price as a buy, with a 12-month share price target of $29. If that came to pass, it would represent a potential upside of more than 27% from where the shares stand today.

This ASX broker reckons the Suncorp deal will give ANZ shares a boost if the merger goes ahead without a hitch. It noted that the deal represents “fair value” for ANZ, with the potential of “substantial cost synergies… funding cost benefits… and lower capital intensity… over time”.

Another broker who has recently weighed in on ANZ shares is Goldman Sachs. Earlier this month, we covered how Goldman maintained a neutral rating on the ANZ share price. Even so, it still came out with a share price target of $27.44. That implies a potential upside of more than 20%.

Goldman is a little more sanguine than Citi on ANZ’s Suncorp acquisition. It noted that:

Strategically, the proposed acquisition somewhat improves ANZ’s relative lack of scale in domestic retail/commercial banking. Based on APRA’s monthly ADI statistics, ANZ’s market share should increase c.2% in home lending and c.3% in retail deposits…

We see operational risk as elevated, given i) management’s expected A$260 mn of pre-tax synergies largely rely on getting SUN’s 1.2 mn customers on to its still yet to be completed ANZ Plus platform, and ii) potential competition concerns.

This synergy assumption looks high versus previous in-market financial transactions, which tend to see 25-30% of the target’s cost base as synergies.

But it seems both brokers agree that ANZ shares are heading north over the coming year. We’ll just have to see what happens here. But this will no doubt come as music to ANZ shareholders’ ears.

In the meantime, the current ANZ share price gives this ASX 200 bank share a market capitalisation of $68.16 billion, with a dividend yield of 6.31%.

The post Is the ANZ share price an ASX banking buy for the next 12 months? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Citigroup is an advertising partner of The Ascent, a Motley Fool company. Motley Fool contributor Sebastian Bowen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Goldman Sachs. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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