This ultra-high-yield ASX dividend share is up 18% in a month. Is it too late to buy?

A woman sits on sofa pondering a question.A woman sits on sofa pondering a question.

The BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) share price has gone on a strong run, rising by around 18% over the last month. The ASX dividend share has done well for shareholders.

It might be a mistake to think that a particular ASX share isn’t worth looking at just because it has risen. Plenty of businesses have gone up and then kept rising in the coming years.

Names like Altium Limited (ASX: ALU) and Pro Medicus Limited (ASX: PME) have seen very strong long-term share price growth, but it would have been a mistake to avoid them five years ago simply because they have risen.

Of course, not every investment is going to turn out as well as those two.

It’s a particularly tricky question for ASX resource shares because of how volatile commodity prices can be.

What’s going on with the BHP share price?

The BHP share price closed on Thursday at $46.48. This is the highest it has been in FY23 to date.

There has been a welcome rise in the iron ore price, which is an important source of profit generation for the ASX dividend share, particularly in the boom times.

During the COVID-19-affected financial years, iron ore generated big money for the company. But, China’s ongoing focus on substantially controlling the spread of COVID-19 infections has meant lockdowns and other restrictions. This has led to a reduction in economic activity and less demand for iron ore.

But, with COVID-zero now seeming to be a very difficult task, there are some investors now thinking that China is getting closer to pivoting away from the strictest policies.

Fewer restrictions could mean more economic activity and more demand for iron ore.

That’s not the only thing that has happened recently. BHP has also offered OZ Minerals Limited (ASX: OZL) enough money for the board to indicate they’d accept the takeover offer. BHP thinks the assets owned by the company, including copper projects, offer attractive long-term synergies for the business.

Is it too late to invest?

Investors are always able to buy BHP shares if they want to — there are plenty of shares on the market.

But, in hindsight, it would have been better to invest a month ago than today. However, in terms of whether today would be a good time to invest, it’s really a question of what resource prices do from here. Higher resource prices can result in higher profit and higher shareholder payments from the ASX dividend share.

But, I think resource prices can only rise so far, meaning the BHP share price can only go up so much sustainably.

Copper could do well in the coming years as the world looks to electrify more parts of society.

Coal earnings may remain elevated for some time if the supply and demand imbalance continues.

The big question is about iron ore. I don’t know if Chinese demand in 2023 will be strong enough to result in the iron ore price being above US$100 for the majority of the year.

I like the commodity mix that BHP has, including the planned potash project in Canada.

I’d rather wait for the BHP share price to slip below $40 again before jumping on the shares. However, even at this higher valuation, the resource giant could pay a grossed-up dividend yield of 9.4% in FY23.

The post This ultra-high-yield ASX dividend share is up 18% in a month. Is it too late to buy? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Tristan Harrison has positions in Altium. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Altium and Pro Medicus. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Pro Medicus. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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