On Tuesday, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) had an underwhelming session. The benchmark index fell 0.2% to 7,264.1 points.

Will the market be able to bounce back from this on Wednesday? Here are five things to watch:

ASX 200 expected to fall

The Australian share market looks set to fall again on Wednesday following a poor night on Wall Street. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open the day 18 points or 0.25% lower this morning. On Wall Street, the Dow Jones was down 0.2%, the S&P 500 fell 0.45% and the Nasdaq dropped 0.6%.

Oil prices push higher

It could be a positive session for ASX 200 energy shares such as Beach Energy Ltd (ASX: BPT) and Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS) after oil prices staged a remarkable recovery overnight. According to Bloomberg, the WTI crude oil price is up 0.6% to US$73.60 a barrel and the Brent crude oil price has risen 0.4% to US$77.33 a barrel. Oil prices were down over 2% before rebounding amid news that the U.S. government plans to refill the nation’s emergency oil reserves.

Federal budget

A number of ASX 200 shares will be in focus on Wednesday after the Labour government unveiled the federal budget. Among the winners could be Fortescue Metals Group Ltd (ASX: FMG), which looks set to benefit from green hydrogen support, and Wesfarmers Ltd (ASX: WES) for several reasons. Its Officeworks business could benefit from small businesses being able to write off the value of new equipment worth up to $20,000, whereas Kmart and Target could benefit from low-income support.

Gold price rises

Gold miners Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) and Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) will be on watch after the gold price rose overnight. According to CNBC, the spot gold price is up 0.45% to US$2,042.5 an ounce. Traders appear to be betting that today’s inflation reading causes rates to rise and volatility and recession risks to increase.

CBA shares rated as a sell

The Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) share price could be overvalued according to Goldman Sachs. This morning, the broker has reiterated its sell rating and $87.78 price target on the banking giant’s shares. Goldman notes: “Cash profit from continuing operations in 3Q23 of c.A$2.6 bn was up 10% vs. 3Q22 and run-rating c.1% behind what is implied by our 2H23E forecasts.”

The post 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Wednesday appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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More reading

• The Wesfarmers share price was in the red today despite green energy acquisition rumours
• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today
• Here are the 3 most heavily traded ASX 200 shares on Tuesday
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• What’s going wrong for ASX 200 share A2 Milk today?

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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