Why Macquarie expects this fast-rising ASX 200 dividend stock to keep outperforming in 2026

S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) dividend stock GPT Group (ASX: GPT) is pushing higher today.

Shares in the property investment company closed yesterday trading for $5.53. During the Thursday lunch hour, shares are swapping hands for $5.55 apiece, up 0.4%.

This sees the ASX 200 stock up 25.6% in 2025, racing ahead of the 4.1% year to date gains posted by the benchmark index.

As for that passive income, GPT Group shares trade on an unfranked 4.3% trailing dividend yield.

And looking to the year ahead, the analysts at Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) expect another year of outperformance from GPT.

Here’s why.

ASX 200 dividend stock could boost retail footprint

In a new research report published on Wednesday, Macquarie sounded a bullish note on the potential for GPT Group, and the GPT Wholesale Shopping Centre Fund (GWSCF), to secure greater management control at the Sunshine Plaza in Queensland and the Macarthur Square in New South Wales.

The ASX 200 dividend stock already is a part owner of both centres.

Noting the new partnership opportunity with Australian Prime Property Fund Retail (APPF Retail) liquidity event. Macquarie said:

GPT and GWSCF may exercise pre-emptive rights (ideally under a family of funds clause to avoid double stamp-duty) to gain wider management rights to co-owned assets Sunshine Plaza and Macarthur Square. We estimate based on an investment management fee of 25-40bps, the transaction could be 0.2-0.4% accretive to FY26 FFO (Note: GPT already earns property management fees at these assets).

The broker noted that GWSCF is undertaking an equity raise “potentially providing capacity to participate”.

Macquarie expects this partnership would benefit GPT Group. The broker stated:

The economics for GPT are likely to be better with GWSCF than most other potential partners, however GWSCF has no capacity without the targeted $500m equity raise.

We estimate GPT has ~$360m of debt capacity to the upper end of its gearing range (post capital commitments) implying a raise would be required for GPT to acquire either or both assets. However, this would not align with the preferred partnership strategy.

Connecting the dots, Macquarie retained its outperform rating on the ASX 200 dividend stock with a $6.23 12-month target price. That implies a potential upside of more than 12% from current levels. And it doesn’t include those two upcoming dividends.

Macquarie concluded:

Execution of strategy offers upside potential to valuation in the medium to long term. From here, we believe evidence of growth in third-party FUM will be key.

The post Why Macquarie expects this fast-rising ASX 200 dividend stock to keep outperforming in 2026 appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.